Joe: For those who’re the A’s (or one other workforce in want of rotation assist), who would you rater purchase by way of commerce, Stroman or T. Walker, and why?
2:02
Jon Becker: Undoubtedly Stroman. He was completely good final yr, and though he fell down the Yankees’ depth chart he’d in all probability be the SP3 for the A’s. Undecided if Walker’s velocity will ever come again.
2:02
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Are the Royals actually going to attempt to contend once more with two 2B, no 3B, no DH, and no OFs besides a platoon of CF defensive specialists?
2:04
Jason Martinez: Their pitching workers might be adequate to hold them even when their offense is simply the Bobby Witt Jr. present. At this level, I’d assume they’re not executed making an attempt to enhance the lineup. However possibly they simply actually consider that one in every of Massey/India can play mutliple positions and that guys like Melendez/Isbel/Garcia can enhance on the plate. Backside half of the lineup appears to be like not very scary.
2:05
Jon Becker: They’re mainly operating again final yr’s roster save for the India-for-Singer swap, and that’s definitely not with out danger since they obtained tough-to-repeat outcomes from Witt and Lugo.
2:05
Seattle_54percenters: Royals nonetheless want one other bat…who’s real looking for them?
2:06
Jon Becker: And on that word, I feel Profar would make plenty of sense for them. Powerful to be an influence bat in that ballpark and him being strong all-around means he can nonetheless be good even with an influence downtick. Solely concern could be his protection in that massive outfield.
2:06
Rayball10: How do you guys venture David Hamilton’s PT in Boston?
2:09
Jason Martinez: 2B is up for grabs so the present taking part in time projection exhibits extra of a cut up between Hamilton, Kristian Campbell, and Vaughn Grissom … https://www.fangraphs.com/groups/red-sox
These projections can change relying on how issues are going within the spring or if the workforce offers any indication of the place issues are headed. Campbell may simply win the job early within the season (or by Opening Day) and by no means relinquish it. Hamilton confirmed sufficient final season that he might go into spring coaching as the favourite (assuming they don’t add one other participant to be their beginning 2B) after which how lengthy he holds the job might be primarily based on his efficiency. However looks like it’s solely a matter of time earlier than Campbell is in Boston.
2:09
$105M: Are the A’s the one workforce needing a payroll of $105M this yr? There are different groups beneath $105M, have they got to achieve it too? Why simply the A’s? Thanks.
2:12
Jon Becker: There’s been slightly little bit of a false impression right here, and this query is an efficient probability for me to clarify this! The A’s don’t must have a payroll of $105M, but when they don’t, the burden of proof in a grievance shifts from the MLBPA to them — which means the A’s must defend themselves somewhat than the MLBPA having to function as in the event that they’ll be presumed harmless. However grievances take years, so there’s no fast punishment that occurs in the event that they aren’t at $105M. I do know the Marlins additionally might be receiving the identical income sharing cash that the A’s will, unclear which different groups are additionally set to.
2:12
Or Elvis: Once we say a prospect had a cup of espresso within the majors, I feel Orelvis’s stat line applies. He was raking for awhile there within the minors earlier than his suspension. What are you listening to on him, and any purpose to suppose he might break camp with the workforce?
2:14
Jason Martinez: If the Jays go into spring coaching with Ernie Clement because the projected starter at 3B and don’t herald any competitors, that might inform me that they actually consider in Orelvis making an influence sooner or later in 2025. Clement is a superbly effective stop-gap. I don’t suppose they’ll stand pat, although, so Orelvis’ 2025 might be all about bouncing again and on the point of take over at 2B or 3B in 2026. Or possibly by the commerce deadline.
2:15
David Stearns: What do you see the Mets doing the remainder of the offseason apart from resigning Pete?
2:17
Jon Becker: If we presuppose they bring about Alonso again (not a given however that’s definitely what I feel is likeliest), I feel they may use one other starting-caliber hitter as Marte/McNeil insurance coverage, ideally somebody who can play each INF and OF. Not any nice choices becoming the invoice on the FA market however Willi Castro involves thoughts as a believable commerce choice with the Twins wanting to chop payroll.
2:17
BC26: Do you actually purchase NYY going with Cabrera/LeMahieu at 3B on Opening Day?
2:20
Jason Martinez: I don’t. Not many 3B choices in the event that they don’t commerce for Arenado — thus, the Paul DeJong rumor from yesterday — however they may simply depart Jazz at 3B and add one of many 2B choices (Brendan Rodgers, Jose Iglesias, Jorge Polanco, Ha-Seong Kim, Luis Arraez commerce?)
2:20
Mr. Burrito: May you see D. Dashing carving out a job with 350 ABs as a someday catcher, someday COF? I really like my Dodgers, and I’m thrilled that their roster is borderline over-stuffed. However Dashing’s OBP+POWER profile feels important on a workforce with two energy bats age 33 or older. And even when he isn’t important this yr I feel it could be necessary for the Dodgers to groom Dashing and Pages and others to tackle key roles as Muncy, Freeman begin to age out. Ideas?
2:22
Jon Becker: Undoubtedly potential, although I feel they view him as extra of an outfielder than a catcher at this level. It will take an damage to get him taking part in time however I’d suppose he’d be one of many first call-ups within the occasion of 1, possibly solely behind whichever of Outman/Pages doesn’t get the final roster spot (assuming Chris Taylor sticks round). I haven’t seen how the Dodgers will deal with Ohtani’s workload when he’s again to pitching, however (and I’m simply speculating) they may return to his early-Angels schedule of not hitting earlier than and after (or possibly only one or the opposite, now) his begin days.
2:22
twins: why is royce lewis the projected sixth hitter, had been they doing that in 2024?
2:24
Jason Martinez: Just one time in 2024 however they not often had the large 3 (Lewis/Correa/Buxton) within the lineup collectively and Lewis was additionally actually unhealthy within the 2nd half (74 wRC+). And Larnach/Wallner give them a pair of lefty bats that had been each superb final season. Rather a lot can change, in fact, however that’s simply the place I landed after wanting over every little thing firstly of the offseason.
2:24
Peter: Hello Of us! There’s been some debate in MN Twins world over the state of the finances. It was reported within the Star Tribune yesterday that after finalizing all of the arbitration eligible gamers, the Twins payroll sits at $122.1, which with minimal wage gamers would carry it to $130. Nevertheless, Roster Useful resource has it at $140. Bref says $130. That is fairly crucial, as a result of the FO has stated the wage have to be $130, so being $140 would imply needing to commerce simply to achieve the specified finances. Are you able to all clarify the place the discrepancy is coming from and what may clarify the differing projections?
2:26
Jon Becker: I’ll take a better take care of we’re executed chatting right here, however it appears to be like like B-Ref solely consists of sufficient pre-arbitration gamers to fill a 26-man roster, somewhat than baking in time for accidents, which we do (seven extra pre-arb gamers per yr as placeholders, primarily). That’s not the whole lot of the $10M distinction however that’s an enormous chunk of it proper there. Re: the Twins themselves, I’ll be curious to see primarily based on the remainder of their offseason if that $130M is a tough quantity or if there’s some wiggle room.
Jason Martinez: Moncada could be attention-grabbing, however undecided he’ll even be low-cost sufficient for the Brewers. I’m guessing he can nonetheless get round 1-yr, $8MM on a prove-it deal. They appeared to essentially like Oliver Dunn final season so undecided if he’s fallen off their radar or in the event that they nonetheless consider in him. I feel there’s not less than a good probability that Caleb Durbin performs 2B, Ortiz stays at 3B, and Turang strikes to SS.
Undecided how shut their two 3B prospects are to the majors. Brock Wilken struggled in AA final season. Mike Boeve tore it up in AA in a smaller pattern. Luke Adams was superb in Hello-A
2:30
Dan H: Thanks a lot for having these chats! With Burnes off the board and a Sasaki signing extraordinarily unlikely, what real looking strikes do you see the Giants doing that would make them greater than a fringe contender for the final wildcard spot? I’d like to see them commerce for somebody like Luis Roberts for upside or Brandon Lowe/Yandy Diaz for some stability, however it’s onerous to know what they will do when what they actually need are stars.
2:32
Jon Becker: They’re in a very robust spot as a result of their farm system isn’t nice (Eldridge is the one man with massive commerce worth, and I feel they’re appropriate to rebuff any makes an attempt to pry him away), however the FA market is basically operating dry on something even approaching star-level expertise. I feel Flaherty makes plenty of sense even with Verlander; undecided you may belief Ray and Hicks to provide you greater than 45 begins mixed, and even that quantity could be pushing it.
2:32
Visitor: Hello Jason, how assured are you on the fifth starters (SP). Like how do you arrive at that conclusion between the fifth and sixth pitcher battles.
2:34
Jason Martinez: Every scenario is exclusive (be happy to ask a few explicit workforce) however most groups aren’t taking possibilities with their rotation by leaving 1-2 spots up for grabs. These competitions will occur due to accidents. One other necessary query today might be how typically a workforce makes use of a spot-starter or bullpen recreation. I’ll checklist some groups with 6 starters and plenty of groups may have 5 starters with an apparent spot-starter candidate within the bullpen.
2:35
drplantwrench: wanting on the out there FA’s and their ZiPS i’m 100% satisfied that the Angels needs to be tripping over themselves to focus on HSK. am i loopy?
2:36
Jon Becker: They’d must rearrange some issues as soon as Kim’s shoulder is wholesome (and Neto’s, for that matter), however I don’t suppose that is loopy! If Kim’s keen to play second (I might completely perceive if he’s not, since he’s an excellent shortstop) they may slide Rengifo to 3rd and Rendon to the bench. Their protection is weak at plenty of totally different spots, particularly if Soler might be taking part in some outfield, so having one other nice glove would assist them loads.
2:36
Tim: What would an affordable expectation for Del Castillo PT with Moreno nonetheless the starter? If he will get AB’s at 1B or DH, does that cement rosterability in a 16t dynasty?
2:38
Jason Martinez: Greatest-case (barring an damage to Moreno) could be that he wins the backup catcher job and the Dbacks discover some at-bats for him because the DH. Would possibly take one other damage to open a few of these DH at-bats — Pavin Smith is at the moment anticipated to get a majority of these — however I’d pencil him in for round 300 PAs. The bat appears to be like legit. Moreno looks like he’d get 75% of begins when wholesome, which limits Del Castillo’s possibilities behind the plate. Additionally why he might return to AAA if there aren’t plenty of DH at-bats early on.
2:38
Jack: What is going to the Phillies outfield setup seem like come opening day (platoons, and so on)? I’m nonetheless undecided I perceive the Kepler signing
2:40
Jon Becker: Everybody’s response when he signed was “oh they have to be buying and selling Castellanos now, proper???” and whereas they’d absolutely like to, I’m undecided they’ll because it’s clear they didn’t have one thing lined up proper when Kepler signed. Sounds prefer it’ll be Kepler in left (Dombrowski stated he’ll begin towards lefties, however we’ll see about that), Marsh in middle, Castellanos in proper. Weston Wilson and Johan Rojas will play loads towards lefties and Rojas ought to make plenty of late-in-game appearances to get Castellanos off the sector.
2:41
Bucs outfield: Will Pittsburgh signal Grichuk AND Verdugo? If no, which is extra seemingly?
2:43
Jason Martinez: Looks as if an excellent match for each and I feel in all probability inside the Pirates’ finances. Grichuk may wish to signal with a greater workforce as a 4th OF/platoon vs LHP however it may also be enjoyable to play in Pittsburgh for half-season after which get traded to a contender.
2:43
jaygray007: occupied with the nook outfield market. Who involves thoughts to you as “groups who’re making an attempt to win” and “nonetheless wants a beginning nook outfielder” (and likewise appears to have some cash left)? I’ve a “feeling” that there are extra gamers than apparent jobs open, however i’m undecided and that’s why im asking you
2:44
Jon Becker: A few of these groups are operating on tight budgets, however the Jays, Royals, Astros, Braves, Pirates, and Padres all might use one other COF for positive.
2:45
TRANE: any probability we see Nolan Gorman traded? undecided what the Playing cards on doing on the entire this offseason
2:47
Jason Martinez: Appears like they’re making an attempt their hardest to commerce Arenado, which I assume would open 3B for Gorman. Now, in the event that they decided that Arenado was staying put, I’m positive they’d take into account it. However, even with 4 years of management, it may not be price it if his commerce worth has decreased an excessive amount of after his poor 2024. He does have minor league choices so possibly they’d let him rake in AAA earlier than procuring him.
2:47
AL Central Casting: The Twins now have 4 catchers on their 40-man (5 for those who rely Gasper). Do you see them buying and selling anybody, and in that case, who? Cartaya isn’t prepared and Carmago looks like the depth man behind Jeffers and Vazquez, however not so positive they like him sufficient to be a part of their catching time-share in the event that they commerce one of many MLB guys.
2:49
Jon Becker: Vázquez could be the plain man to maneuver since he’s because of make $10M (they’d must cowl a few of it to make a commerce work). I agree that Cartaya and Camargo may not be as preferrred as a veteran like Vázquez because the backup, but when chopping wage is the first aim, I feel they’d somewhat simply roll with one of many two pre-arbitration guys somewhat than spend a couple of million on a unique backup.
2:49
jaygray007: I really really promise to by no means ask an annoying query like this once more, however are you able to please take into account placing IKF low within the Pirates’ lineup and placing Horwitz or McCutchen or anybody else at leadoff lol? I do know you will have your causes for having it how it’s, however the aesthetic would simply really feel so significantly better to me as a Pirate fan. Hes simply such a beneath common hitter.
2:52
Jason Martinez: Yet another addition to their lineup and I’d transfer him right down to Seventh-ish. He was their leadoff man for the final 2 months of the season and Cutch was the cleanup hitter for the final month. Most likely extra concerning the high quality of his at-bats somewhat than the end result. However, I agree, it isn’t aesthetically pleasing with IKF on the high of the lineup.
2:52
Ham Fighter: Cal Raleigh, Adley Rutschman, and William Contreras had been born like 14 months aside, every have 13 level one thing WAR over the past three years, and are all slated to hit FA on the similar time. You see any of them extending early (Raleigh is the one Boras man) or are all of them hoping to turn into the primary $200M catcher in free company?
2:54
Jon Becker: Simply taking part in the chances right here, however I’ll guess that not less than one in every of them does, positive. Catchers’ higher damage danger makes locking in an extension, even when they’re probably leaving cash on the desk, interesting to them, extra so than it’s for different place gamers. However the nearer they get to FA the much less seemingly they’re.
2:54
John B: Do you suppose the variety of arm accidents to the Dodgers younger SP will have an effect on Sasaki’s choice?
2:57
Jason Martinez: It’s an excellent query and, as a Padres fan, I hope that’s the case. However, sadly, I feel torn elbow ligaments are simply a part of a pitcher unlocking the very best model of themselves. And I don’t know if it issues as a result of it’s occurring to some extent with each workforce. Dodgers had been an excessive case, not less than in 2024, however I don’t know if any pitcher would suppose they’re extra prone to get injured due to the way in which that the Dodgers do issues.
2:57
Chris: Intestine feeling, Yanks make an IF addn or go together with what they’ve?
2:57
wheelhouse: under-the-radar candidate for yankees’ 3B (or 2B)? would the pirates transfer ke’bryan hayes to get out of that dedication, and is he fixable?
2:58
Jon Becker: I might be very shocked if they simply caught with what they’ve, and to reply the second query, undecided about Hayes for them (as a lot as I really like his protection I’m simply undecided he’ll ever elevate the ball sufficient). Jose Iglesias is sensible as a man who might bounce round between 2B/3B/slightly SS, we haven’t heard a lot in any respect on him this winter.
2:58
Claxon: Is Sasaki holding up the SP marketplace for the week? It looks like what I’m seeing.
3:01
Jason Martinez: Yep, and never solely the SP market. For groups with a restricted finances (SD), whether or not they signal Sasaki or not will make an enormous distinction in how they fill out their roster. Signing Sasaki permits them to place no matter $ they must spend in direction of different areas. And in the event that they don’t get Sasaki, they seemingly must spend $ on a SP. And for groups that may afford somebody like Jack Flaherty, they’re in all probability holding off in case they get Sasaki for nearly nothing. After which they’d have some payroll flexibility so as to add to different components of their roster.
3:01
Ace: What on earth do the Blue Jays do?
3:02
Jon Becker: Somebody has to take their cash sooner or later, proper? Undecided it’ll be Alonso, Santander, or Bregman, however possibly they bring about Pivetta again house to Canada and add somebody like Profar?
3:03
Visitor: When do you suppose we are going to see Colby Thomas for the Athletics? Appears that Seth Brown is his competitors. Is it higher than a 50% probability that he begins on the roster?
3:04
Jason Martinez: As issues stand, I might say that’s the one spot within the lineup that’s just about up for grabs within the spring. And Thomas and Denzel Clarke could be within the combine to compete with Brown. However there’s nonetheless a protracted strategy to go. Very prone to be not less than yet another addition earlier than spring coaching.
3:05
Twins: Any probability the Twins commerce Larnach?
3:06
Jon Becker: Don’t suppose so. He’s low-cost ($2.1M) and until they wish to be actually aggressive and promote Emmanuel Rodriguez, something they do to exchange him would price extra.
3:06
Billy: Hello guys! What do you suppose Arizona finally ends up doing with their DH spot? Pavin Smith had a pleasant yr final yr however he’s not precisely a reputation that strikes concern, and it looks like they may in all probability use yet another man like that
3:08
Jason Martinez: Small pattern however he was superb final season (.896 OPS in 158 PA) and Dbacks will seemingly wish to see if it carries over if given common taking part in time (not less than vs RHP). Additionally, they in all probability wish to depart open the likelihood for Adrian Del Castillo and Jordan Lawlar to earn some at-bats. Lawlar (former high prospect) wouldn’t essentially be the DH, however he might bounce across the infield (2B/3B/SS) with Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez getting off their ft sometimes.
3:09
J: What SP do you suppose is sensible for the Cubs to focus on by way of both commerce or FA?
3:10
Jon Becker: Flaherty’s the large identify in FA and wouldn’t price a draft decide, although undecided the Cubs wish to spend in all probability $20M+ per yr over a number of years. In commerce, Dylan Stop is the highest choice by far, however there’s additionally Luis Castillo and one of many Diamondbacks’ additional guys (probably Montgomery).
3:11
Sanford: Do you realistically suppose Orioles will platoon Holliday, or are you simply hedging? If he’s nonetheless not prepared for the full-time job, I’d think about they’d simply ship him down once more somewhat than platoon him
3:12
Jason Martinez: An important factor might be to construct up his confidence so he doesn’t get despatched again to AAA once more. Maintaining him away from robust LHP (and possibly all LHP for some time) might be a part of that. He’s not the kind of participant to want a platoon as soon as he settles in. I simply suppose they’ll be very cautious about after they determine that he’s an on a regular basis participant.
3:14
Hugh: If the Angels lastly understand they should tear-down, what do you suppose they may fairly get for Trout? Is he only a $$ dump at this level?
3:15
Jon Becker: Unhappy to say it, however I feel he’d simply be a cash dump at his age and along with his damage historical past. Value noting he has a full no-trade and has by no means proven any indication in anyway of waiving it, too.
3:15
Phil: I preserve listening to Boston is in on Bregman- How does that work? They’re not going to have Bregman play 2B & block Campbell are they? Devers has to maneuver to 1B, proper? Then they commerce/DG Casas?
3:17
Jason Martinez: Bregman could be open to taking part in 2B for 1-2 seasons earlier than Devers strikes to 1B. Nevertheless it’s extra seemingly that Devers strikes to 1B, Casas strikes to DH, and Yoshida (plus $) will get traded.
3:17
The Oberamtmann: I do know Waldo, Peraza, and DJLM are all uninspiring choices, however am I improper to be annoyed that the Yankees are checking in on gamers like de Jong? Like, it’s an excessive amount of to ask that, if the tires you’re kicking are usually not so nice, possibly you decide to the tires you will have at house?
3:18
Jon Becker: Checking in on gamers is simply a part of the job — they’ve in all probability not less than reached out on dozens of free brokers, identical to each workforce has. Wouldn’t learn an excessive amount of into it until a deal truly occurs, through which case I’d agree with you that they must be aiming larger.
3:18
Weird1@Portland: Will Dubon be the HOU 3B starter?
3:20
Jason Martinez: Isaac Paredes is their 3B and Dubon ought to proceed to be a super-utilityman. The Astros have not less than one gap to fill within the OF so Dubon might be within the combine for normal taking part in time on the market in the event that they don’t herald one other OF or two.
3:21
Freeman, freeland, who offers a hoot: what do you suppose are the probabilities Alex Freeland will get the decision and +200 PAs this yr
3:22
Jon Becker: Fairly low, since that’s about two months of standard taking part in time, and he’d must do higher than he did at Triple-A final yr to essentially drive the problem. He’s behind Betts and Rojas on the SS depth chart and Taylor and Kim are able to taking part in there too.
3:22
Pumpsie: Thank-you a lot for all of your work on the Depth Charts/Payroll! With the arb deadline yesterday, I’m questioning if on the Payroll tab you possibly can transfer the final-year arb guys (Guerrero, Tucker, and so on) up into the Assured part as soon as they’ve gone by arb for the final time. I’m positive you’ve weighed professionals and cons; if I had a vote, I’d vote to have these guys within the higher part.
3:23
Jason Martinez: I consider I’ve executed this up to now, not less than as we get nearer to the commerce deadline. Be happy to remind me round Could if it hasn’t occurred.
3:24
Ham Fighter: I used to be sort of confused by the Brewers leaving Shane Smith unprotected within the Rule 5 so they may take Connor Thomas as an alternative. On the subject of the Brewers and fringe pitching strikes do I simply must belief the method?
3:25
Jon Becker: I don’t like to situation blanket benefit-of-the-doubt to any groups, however the Brewers have actually been proper up there at or in direction of the highest with making the appropriate calls. They may additionally preserve Thomas and find yourself getting Smith again if the White Sox return him anyway.
3:26
comish4lif: Do you count on the Nats to handle the gaping abyss that’s their bullpen?
3:28
Jason Martinez: For positive. With the reliever market at a standstill (in all probability ready on Tanner Scott and Jeff Hoffman), it’s robust to know in the event that they’ll be in on any of the large names to turn into their nearer … Kenley, Yates, Robertson, Estevez. Or in the event that they go the cheaper route (Sewald, Leclerc). Or possibly they’ll be the most recent workforce to provide Kimbrel an opportunity.
3:29
TRANE: what % of MLB video games do you guys not less than catch aside of? 10% needs to be elite?
3:30
Jon Becker: It is a good query to finish on as we wrap up right here! I watch 4 video games without delay all season lengthy and can swap as video games finish or are blowouts, so I feel I watch not less than a couple of pitches of… 65% of video games possibly? 75%? It feels loopy even typing out that top a quantity and now I wish to observe this season, haha.
3:32
Jason Martinez: I watch a majority of Padres video games, together with round 40-50 in individual at Petco Park. After which plenty of highlights and I attempt to catch a MiLB recreation as typically as potential. A variety of baseball however, as you may inform, we do actually like baseball.
3:34
Jason Martinez: Thanks for becoming a member of us! We’ll be again subsequent Friday on the similar time. As at all times, be happy to ship over a query on one of many social media websites if we didn’t get to it right here.
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Jason Martinez: Welcome to the RosterResource Dwell Chat! A number of issues earlier than we get began …
