2025 ZiPS Projections: Toronto Blue Jays

For the twenty first consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For extra data on the ZiPS projections, please seek the advice of this 12 months’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The staff order is chosen by lot, and the subsequent staff up is the Toronto Blue Jays.

Batters

The AL East staff that entered 2024 with the best projected ground turned out to have… the bottom precise ground in 2024. Curse you, chance! The rotation dissatisfied final 12 months, and a large swathe of the beginning lineup both underperformed or bought injured, and in some circumstances, each.

Regardless of their points final season, ZiPS nonetheless initiatives the Blue Jays as having a fairly good beginning 9, particularly after the shuffle that introduced in Andrés Giménez. After his terrific 2024, it feels particularly dangerous that the staff couldn’t get Matt Chapman to conform to the six-year, $125 million deal they repeatedly prolonged to him earlier than he grew to become a free agent, as ZiPS initiatives the recent nook as middling, populated by a somewhat unimpressive assemblage of gamers. Elsewhere, Orelvis Martinez, as soon as a beloved ZiPS projectee, has seen his projection drop to .210/.275/.403 with mildly below-average protection. The pc does undertaking first rate useless cat bounces from Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk, which will likely be essential to serving to Jays followers overlook the 88 losses the staff tallied final 12 months. Even with the unexciting third base projections, the Blue Jays have a really strong infield.

The outfield and DH are extra problematic. Whereas not one of the outfield spots undertaking as absolute black holes, ZiPS is unimpressed with the left discipline combo of Joey Loperfido ‘n’ Pals and sees imminent oblivion (immblivion?) for George Springer, who’s clearly nicely on the downslope of his profession. DH seems to be primarily like a “break day” place, except Will Wagner‘s offense is so good that they only let him roll with the job or persuade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. that concentrating on his bat could be useful. Daulton Varsho’s glove makes him a strong starter, but it surely’d be even higher if his energy from just a few years in the past returned.

Wagner’s comps, which embody Edgar Martinez, compel me to re-issue my occasional reminder that these are related gamers at related factors of their careers; this isn’t projecting that Wagner could have a Corridor of Fame profession. However since his offensive breakout within the excessive minors, he does hit sufficient to not less than be fascinating. A .270/.350/.400 hitter who isn’t merely cosplaying as a second baseman is an interesting man to have round, so the wild comparability to Edgar is barely much less wild than different wild comparisons to Edgar, if that sentence makes any sense.

The Blue Jays’ greatest downside proper now’s that point is simply plain working out. Guerrero and Bichette will likely be free brokers after this season, whereas Kirk, Varsho, and Kevin Gausman all will likely be after 2026. Add in Springer’s already apparent decline, and there simply isn’t a complete lot of clock left to win with this core group of gamers. ZiPS likes a few of Toronto’s prospects, like Leo Jiménez and Charles McAdoo (the latter of whom came visiting within the Isiah Kiner-Falefa commerce), but it surely sees most of them as having pretty low ceilings. The Blue Jays ought to be aggressive in going after guys like Anthony Santander (who they’ve reportedly not less than given a four-year provide to). This staff may very well be the plain basement favourite in just a few years.

And sure, I do know Joey Votto retired. I wrote about it, in spite of everything.

Pitchers

ZiPS has lengthy appreciated Gausman, but it surely’s solely projecting him to bounce again to a 114 ERA+ in 2025, and that’s the very best pitching projection on the staff. Shedding almost a 3rd of your strikeout charge in a single 12 months is usually a Actually Unhealthy Signal, and a worse contact-against charge and declining velocity are hardly mitigating components. Gausman being a strong number-two starter somewhat than a transparent ace has actual penalties, as the remainder of the rotation initiatives as merely satisfactory. And whereas it’s good that José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, and Yariel Rodríguez all undertaking someplace round league common, and that ZiPS nonetheless has very slight religion in Alek Manoah, there’s simply not a lot upside right here. ZiPS isn’t a fan of the subsequent names on the depth chart — Jake Bloss, Adam Macko, and Andrew Bash — in any respect, and forecasts that the Jays would swiftly fall out competition with simply a few key accidents.

There aren’t numerous huge names within the bullpen, however ZiPS sees Toronto’s aid corps as being a lot higher than in 2024, once they completed final in baseball in WAR and mixed for a 4.82 ERA. Ryan Burr initiatives as the very best reliever, however Chad Inexperienced, Yimi García, Erik Swanson, Josh Walker, and Brandon Eisert all undertaking as common or higher. Merely being the Fifteenth-best bullpen final 12 months somewhat than the worst one would have been sufficient so as to add a stunning six wins to the staff’s total tally. Toronto might in all probability stand so as to add one other arm or two to the ‘pen, particularly a lefty, however I’m unsure it’s absolutely the precedence, even with how awful the unit was final 12 months.

If you happen to ignore my direct threats of violence and add up the WAR on the depth chart, you get round 87-88 wins. However with the staff’s depth, particularly the beginning pitching, ZiPS provides the Jays one thing extra alongside the traces of 84 or 85 wins proper now. That’s a extremely awkward spot for a staff that could be in its final season with two of its finest gamers. Whereas it’s good that the staff did make an actual effort to go after Shohei Ohtani final 12 months and Juan Soto final month, the job entails closing offers somewhat than merely providing them. A lot of the best possible gamers are already off the free agent market — it’s getting near midnight for these Toronto Blue Jays.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by the use of these listed right here. Measurement of participant names could be very roughly proportional to Depth Chart taking part in time. The ultimate staff projections could differ significantly from our Depth Chart taking part in time.

Gamers are listed with their most up-to-date groups wherever attainable. This contains gamers who’re unsigned or have retired, gamers who will miss 2025 as a result of damage, and gamers who had been launched in 2024. So sure, should you see Joe Schmoe, who stop baseball again in August to kind a Norwegian Ukulele Dixieland Jazz band that solely covers songs by The Smiths, he’s nonetheless listed right here deliberately. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.11.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values would possibly differ barely from people who seem within the full launch of ZiPS. Lastly, I’ll advise anybody in opposition to — and would possibly karate chop anybody responsible of — merely including up WAR totals on a depth chart to supply projected staff WAR. You will need to keep in mind that ZiPS is agnostic about taking part in time, and has no details about, for instance, how shortly a staff will name up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor.

As all the time, incorrect projections are both brought on by misinformation, a non-pragmatic actuality, or by the skillful sabotage of our good friend and former editor. You possibly can, nonetheless, nonetheless get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky.