Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/6/25

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2:01
Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat
2:01
Ben Clemens: Being that it’s early January, I’m gonna preserve it comparatively quick immediately
2:01
Ben Clemens: Say 45 minutes or so
2:01
Ben Clemens: however let’s use that point correctly
2:01
Ken: With their additions, are the A’s legit contenders for a playoff spot in 2025?
2:01
Ben Clemens: No. I believe they’re nonetheless gonna be sub-10% or so
2:02
Ben Clemens: However extra respectable than many of the current variations of the A’s, nonetheless
2:02
Dan Sanchez: The Orioles have starter depth however nonetheless want an ace, and the Padres, who will lose Dylan Stop subsequent 12 months, may use a younger OF bat. Would one thing like Heston Kjerstad and Dean Kremer, perhaps with a 3rd piece, get it completed?
2:02
Ben Clemens: I believe that might get it completed, however I don’t actually see them buying and selling Kjerstad
2:03
Ben Clemens: It’s simply incompatible with the way in which they deal from their prospects; Ortiz was not precisely surplus however fairly blocked by different attention-grabbing prospects on the very least
2:03
Ben Clemens: Kjerstad feels extra more likely to be an actual contributor this 12 months, which might make the commerce much less of a pure improve. that appears to me to be the way in which they prefer to make offers
2:03
davealden53: I do know you suppose Eguy Rosario can have a future if he can get unblocked.  Roster Useful resource now reveals him because the Padres’ DH, however this doesn’t look like an ideal match.  Does he stay commerce bait, maybe an additional piece in a Dylan Stop deal?
2:03
Ben Clemens: I believe that’d be awkward b/c a workforce buying Stop might be a playoff contender, and that doesn’t sound like a workforce that’s going to simply slam Eguy right into a beginning spot
2:05
Ben Clemens: I don’t completely hate DH for him, however i believe that AB’s might be laborious to return by there, so yeah, I’d like to see him in a spot the place he has common infield taking part in time
2:05
Idiotic Failson: The Yankees can’t actually be assuming DJLM might be taking part in third once more this 12 months, can they? CAN THEY?!?!?!?
2:06
Ben Clemens: I actually suppose that they’re going to accumulate a bigger-ticket 3B nonetheless
2:06
Ben Clemens: their roster simply makes so little sense with DJLM
2:06
Ben Clemens: it’s leaving an apparent level of weak spot in a winter the place lots of their strikes appear to be about shoring up weaknesses
2:07
Dan Sanchez: What sort of contract do you suppose Framber Valdez could possibly be subsequent 12 months? Similar age at FA as Snell (32), much less stuff however extra sturdy. 4/120? 5/140? Extra?
2:07
Ben Clemens: man, I’d be actually fearful about giving Framber a giant deal. That’s an actual change of opinion for me, I really feel like I used to be one of many excessive analysts on him for years, however the final 18 months or so have me questioning how he’s going to deal with a change in stuff
2:07
Ben Clemens: his fastball appears to wish a really specific form to work, and when he misplaced it for some time, he was not superb
2:08
Ben Clemens: I suppose I’d say that he’ll most likely get one thing within the vary you named, however I might hope to not be the workforce giving it to him
2:08
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s wrong-way danger. I don’t suppose he’s more likely to ship you an enormous windfall at that contract, however coming in approach low feels doable to me
2:08
davealden53: There aren’t any well being updates on Edward Cabrera and he’s projected because the #2 starter for the Marlins.  Do you consider that chance?  Can he really keep wholesome and productive or is the die forged?
2:08
Ben Clemens: I don’t consider that chance
2:09
Ben Clemens: Not that it may possibly’t occur… however I’d guess in opposition to it at affordable odds
2:09
Alby: Largest shock of the offseason to date?
2:09
Ben Clemens: I believe it’s the A’s turning into aggressive acquirers in beginning pitching
2:10
Ken: The A’s have a whole lot of starters on their 40-man roster: Severino, Springs, Sears, Bido, Ginn, Estes, Spence, Basso, and Harris. Barring a commerce or damage, Severino, Springs, and Sears are locks for the rotation. However what ought to they do with the remainder of them? None of them actually have something left to show or work on within the minors. Ought to the A’s experiment with a workers of tandem starters the place two pitchers work 5 innings and 4 innings, respectively, every recreation, as a substitute of the normal 5-man rotation and 8-man bullpen?
2:10
Ben Clemens: For instance!
2:11
Ben Clemens: Mmmmm, no, I don’t suppose that makes a ton of sense except they’ve buy-in from everybody. I believe extra realistically, a few of these guys are going to get damage and a few gained’t play sufficient to be within the majors.
2:11
Ben Clemens: Like, Hogan Harris is on this checklist. He’s 28 and each single run prevention stat was above 5.50 in sizable minor league taking part in time final 12 months
2:12
Ben Clemens: I really feel like I do know rather a lot about baseball, and I needed to lookup who Basso was
2:12
Ben Clemens: dude was additionally getting shelled within the minors
2:13
Ben Clemens: This isn’t a ‘we have now 8 true established starters’ scenario, I believe that they need to simply go the traditional route and let accidents and underperformance make issues work
2:13
wmquirk: Guardians received a steal on Shane Bieber this 12 months after seeing Boyd and Morton’s contracts, amongst others. I might suppose he must be gone on the deadline in the event that they aren’t certain contenders by then
2:13
Ben Clemens: I agree with you right here
2:14
Ben Clemens: I used to be very shocked to see him signal for that deal given how excited groups have been to pay potential top-end starter
2:14
Ben Clemens: That stated, I get it from his standpoint. It’s good to rehab in a scenario you’re aware of, and the cash/years aren’t horrible
2:14
Ben Clemens: I believe this was a case the place the potential future earnings bump from having your rehab go effectively outstrips the additional couple of bucks you could possibly make this offseason
2:15
Oaktown Blues: Brady Basso was not getting shelled within the minors. He was in Vegas and was sufferer of an unsustainable excessive HR/FB%. His xFIP was 4.26, which is nice for that atmosphere
2:15
Ben Clemens: do you suppose he has nothing extra to show within the minors?
2:15
Oaktown Blues: No, he has extra to show for certain
2:15
Ben Clemens: Yeah, that’s extra my level
2:15
Ben Clemens: like, that wasn’t a listing the place I’d be flabbergasted if anybody received despatched down
2:16
Ben Clemens: i’d be extra shocked if nobody did
2:16
Henry Dodger: A number of speaking heads and followers in NYC are saying that the NYY, as presently constituted, are a greater workforce than final 12 months’s squad with Soto. I don’t see it. What do you suppose?
2:16
Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t actually purchase it, however I’ll say, I like their position gamers’ odds of bouncing again
2:16
Ben Clemens: like having a full season of Jazz is good
2:17
Ben Clemens: and I believe that their pitching will most likely be higher even ex-Fried
2:17
Oaktown Blues: Recognize the temporary backwards and forwards, that’s what makes these chats enjoyable 🙂
2:17
Ben Clemens: and like I stated, I’m no Basso knowledgeable
2:17
Idiotic Failson: Um, what are the Orioles doing? It seems like they may blow their likelihood to maximise their window as a result of Elias is brutally danger averse in relation to their SP.
2:18
Ben Clemens: Yeah uh… I write this text yearly
2:18
Ben Clemens: I really wished to put in writing an article known as ‘c’mon, orioles, do one thing’ earlier than they signed Sugano, and I discovered I’d already written an article with that title
2:18
Ben Clemens: I’m very confused by their methodology
2:19
Ben Clemens: it’s form of Rays-y in that they appear to be attempting to construct a really sustainably high-floor group by focusing closely on trades that spherical them out slightly than make them higher-ceiling, and hten taking occasional swings
2:20
Ben Clemens: however that appears like a very unusual solution to go about maximizing a window constructed on two stars
2:20
Visitor: Mountcastle and Kremer get you near Castillo?  Would Povich be value greater than Kremer?
2:20
Ben Clemens: I’m not saying it shouldn’t
2:20
Ben Clemens: or effectively, perhaps I’m, I haven’t thought too laborious about that but
2:20
Ben Clemens: however the Mariners will not be budging for scraps like that
2:20
Ben Clemens: they’ve made it very clear that htey suppose their pitchers are value their weight in gold
2:21
Ben Clemens: ‘right here, have a roughly common first baseman and a starter who wouldn’t go in your rotation’
2:21
AL Central Casting: Do you suppose groups/pitchers/catchers generally declare PitchCom issues when there aren’t any, simply to get an additional minute of relaxation? It may simply be me remembering examples throughout high-leverage conditions, nevertheless it does look like they may recreation the pitch-clock system from time to time by saying the PitchCom is just not working – very not often have I seen them substitute the machine.
2:21
Ben Clemens: ‘suppose’ is just not robust sufficient
2:21
Ben Clemens: I strongly consider it
2:21
Ben Clemens: I might be shocked, extra shocked than I’d be if the White Sox go .500 this 12 months, to study that it ISN’T taking place
2:21
drplantwrench: wanting ahead to the Orioles changing into the subsequent angels
2:21
Idiotic Failson: Like – I’m a Yankee fan and even I’m like – ORIOLES, PLEASE DO SOMETHING
2:22
Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose they’re gonna flip into the subsequent Angels
2:23
Ben Clemens: I do suppose they may flip into the subsequent Pirates, when it comes to a workforce that hit it huge with some progressive new methods, developed an exceptional core on account of that plus some good draft picks, after which by no means supplemented the core in any respect and ended up losing it
2:23
Idiotic Failson: FWIW – Luis Castillo’s weight in gold is round $500k. They’re treating him as way more worthwhile.
2:23
Ben Clemens: value his weight in GPU’s
2:23
Ben Clemens: i dunno, some worthwhile factor. value his weight in vanilla?
2:23
Ben Clemens: however like, actual vanilla pods, not the extract
2:24
Visitor: If the Mariners suppose Castillo is superior they usually’re completely glad paying him his contract (affordable I believe), what does a commerce of him even seem like?  A pitcher simply pretty much as good plus extra?
2:24
Ben Clemens: a high hitting prospect
2:24
Ben Clemens: most likely with an ETA of proper now
2:25
Brian: Whereas I agree on the pitchcom I’ve one other, maybe extra refined solution to recreation the clock – Francisco Alvarez actually likes to throw behind runners. I believe that a part of that’s he likes to throw nevertheless it additionally offers the pitcher an additional second with out breaking any guidelines
2:26
Ben Clemens: I believe that this one is much less implicit and extra accepted
2:26
Ben Clemens: again picks final 12 months felt to me, anecdotally, more likely than they was once to get lollipopped in there
2:26
Henry Dodger: How a lot of Pete Alonso’s lack of a sturdy market this 12 months is  because of his poor platform 12 months and the way a lot is it that projection methods actually don’t like him?
2:26
Ben Clemens: These issues are inextricably linked, however I suppose what I’d say is that this
2:27
Ben Clemens: I believe that the projection system consensus was decrease on Alonso than followers/baseball execs already coming into 2024
2:27
Ben Clemens: I believe it largely got here from the truth that he broke out late and projection methods are skeptical of profession arcs like that
2:28
Ben Clemens: however I believe that this dangerous platform 12 months each lowered the projections additional, to love ‘purple flag, maintain up the deal’ ranges, and likewise cooled off the ‘we’re signing him for the dingers and autographs’ crowd a bit
2:29
Ben Clemens: I’ve no clue what he’s gonna do. I believe I wrote rather a lot in my blurb about how I do model-based projecting and there aren’t a whole lot of instances like Alonso’s so I principally instructed the mannequin to close up and went up by rather a lot from its estiamte
2:29
wheelhouse: Is Goldschmidt the worst signing of the offseason to date? Brian Cashman has made this error one million instances earlier than and reveals no signal of slowing, in contrast to Paul
2:29
Ben Clemens: oh man, I don’t suppose so in any respect
2:29
Ben Clemens: now, in the event that they’re dedicated to giving him 600 PA’s even when he’s toast, sure
2:29
Ben Clemens: however I believe that it’s an honest guess at a great value
2:30
Ben Clemens: like, dude gained MVP just lately sufficient, and gamers have late-career spike years typically sufficient, that I believe this can be a good danger to be taking
2:30
Ben Clemens: if he’s a catastrophe and also you’re prepared to chop him, then it’s no biggie
2:30
Ben Clemens: I assure you you will get a blah-level 1B on the commerce deadline for peanuts
2:31
Alby: Are you fearful about Rutschman in any respect or do you suppose his hunch was injury-related?
2:31
Ben Clemens: So like… I don’t suppose a 100/0 view of that is appropriate
2:31
Ben Clemens: I’m undoubtedly a lot much less fearful than I’d in any other case be b/c there’s a transparent connection to his damage and his decline
2:31
Ben Clemens: and I’m additionally not significantly fearful concerning the varied smooth denials that it was injury-related, no matter, that’s what you’re speculated to say in the event you’re the workforce
2:32
Ben Clemens: however I believe sticking your head within the sand is mistaken too
2:32
Ben Clemens: actually, my base case for him has shifted down barely
2:33
Colton: Leaping in a bit late so unsure if this has been answered, however what do you make of all of the Casas conjecture? Breslow has stated a number of instances that he’s not accessible and isn’t being shopped however individuals nonetheless appear to suppose the alternative.
2:33
Ben Clemens: talking of a participant who the M’s supposedly didn’t need for Castillo!
2:33
Brian: Now that you’ve got been doing the free agent predictions for a number of years, have you ever thought-about doing a classes discovered recap? Belongings you received proper/mistaken, issues the group received proper/mistaken, what has modified over time, and so on?
2:33
Ben Clemens: I did considered one of these final 12 months
2:33
Ben Clemens: I’m going to do a halfway ‘right here’s how our predictions have completed’ check-in this week, as effectively
2:34
Ben Clemens: and yeah, anticipate extra articles of me serious about my very own course of. it’s a pleasant solution to fill content material voids within the offseason and other people appear to take pleasure in studying them
2:34
Ham Fighter: You nearer to Steamer (119 wRC+) or ZiPS (108 OPS+) for Jackson Chourio subsequent 12 months?
2:34
Jays realist: Within the occasion Vladdy cant attain a long run cope with Toronto? what are the possibilities the FO simply retains him the entire 12 months in  hopes that one good 12 months will save their jobs?
2:34
Ben Clemens: I believe that query is principally unimaginable to reply with out realizing their document in July
2:35
Sam: Given the Orioles appear fully disinterested in spending huge cash, how lengthy is it earlier than groups begin sniffing round Rutschman and/or Henderson? Not saying they need to commerce them however with their prospect depth, I may see Baltimore no less than contemplating it.
2:35
Gunnar Henderson: O/U on years till I get traded?  I need my cash they usually arent giving it to me
2:35
Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose they will afford to do it
2:35
Ben Clemens: even when they simply preserve him till FA
2:35
Ben Clemens: buying and selling him would inevitably make hte workforce worse within the quick run
2:35
Ben Clemens: b/c like… that’s how trades of superstars work
2:35
Ben Clemens: even in the event you ‘win’ it, you win it in years of management, not 12 months one WAR
2:36
Ben Clemens: and I don’t suppose this entrance workplace would survive doing a re-teardown
2:36
Ben Clemens: once you aren’t profitable playoff video games with one of the best participant in your workforce doing extremely effectively, eliminating that dude doesn’t sign ‘we actually care about profitable playoff video games’
2:36
Ben Clemens: perhaps if they’ve extra postseason success earlier than then?
2:37
Phil: As a Pink Sox fan and an English main, I can’t consider I didn’t know that Hanley Ramirez was initially speculated to be named Hamlet (per Jay). What a wonderful factor.
2:37
Ben Clemens: That’s certainly glorious
2:37
Ben Clemens: I had no concept
2:37
Dan’l: Is the Arenado commerce hypothesis probably the most discuss ever a couple of pseudo-salary dump that by no means really occurs?
2:38
Ben Clemens: I nonetheless suppose it’s gonna occur, however man, I’m not so certain that he needs it to occur
2:38
Ben Clemens: like, turning down the commerce to the astros to ‘let the market develop’ dude you’re not a free agent
2:39
J: I steadily see individuals say somebody like Kyle Tucker or Vlad Jr. could be loopy to not go to free company at this level. Am I actually loopy for considering these persons are not adequately accounting for danger? I might determine that the draw back danger of getting a 12 months marked by damage or worse than common efficiency would no less than incentivize attempting to get the bag now.
2:39
Ben Clemens: I might by no means attain free company
2:39
Ben Clemens: I might be hitting the bid so laborious I’d create a gust of wind
2:40
Ben Clemens: now, I’d absolutely struggle for a great bid first, however like…. at my degree of danger aversion, I’d take an extension for certain
2:40
Ben Clemens: baseball gamers will not be typically as danger averse as I’m. they most likely wouldn’t be baseball gamers in the event that they had been
2:40
Idiotic Failson: Rhodium – rhodium and Luis Castillo are roughly the identical worth by weight. Luis Castillo’s contract may pay for lots of catalytic converters and is subsequently extra worthwhile than any measly baseball participant.
2:40
Ben Clemens: man perhaps the O’s ought to simply supply the Mariners some rhodium mining rights
2:40
wheelhouse: am I mistaken to actually not like the concept of Arraez to NYY like has floated round immediately? that’s including a ton of issues to your workforce so as to add a singles hitter within the worst ballpark in baseball for lefty singles hitters
2:41
Ben Clemens: I believe that Arraez is a man who’s largely proof against park results b/c of his wild batted ball distribution
2:41
Ben Clemens: however uh yeah, I believe he’s a very dangerous match
2:41
Kiermaier’s Piercing Inexperienced Eyes: Hold on, not one of the math on this chat is mathing. Luis Castillo weighs 90 kg. The value of a KG of gold seems to be about $85,000. I don’t know the way he’d be value solely $500k. And the MSI GeForce RTX 4090 Gaming X Trio weighs slightly over 2 KG and has an MSRP of $1700.
#BringBackNotGraphs
2:41
Idiotic Failson: No no. I’m dangerous at math. His weight in gold is $8 million. However nonetheless…
2:41
Ben Clemens: whoops, forgot to submit that one
2:42
Ben Clemens: and yeah, I pretty shortly realized that GPU’s are most likely pretty heavy
2:42
Dan’l: If not one of the Cardinal veterans had no-trade clauses, who do you suppose they might have moved this offseason?
2:42
Ben Clemens: I believe simply Arenado, actually
2:42
Ben Clemens: if i’m them, I’m fascinated about dealing Grey on the deadline if the wage dump they’re so into is already completed
2:43
Bosoxforlife: Do the Pink sox want one other addition or is Walker Buehler going to be sufficient? There are query marks however Houck, Crochet, Buehler, Bello and one thing from Giolito could possibly be superb.
2:43
Ben Clemens: I believe I just like the rotation sufficient as is
2:43
Ben Clemens: it’s form of protection in depth; I believe dangerous outcomes on ALL these guys on the identical time are unlikely
2:43
Ben Clemens: even when one or two are very more likely to prove badly
2:44
Ben Clemens: if I had been the Sox and trying to enhance, I’d care much more concerning the infield
2:45
Ben Clemens: I’m fairly down on Story, and I actually suppose they’re setting themselves as much as find yourself having to play Rafaela within the infield once more
2:45
Polonius: Concerning the Vlad/Tucker about to hit free company dialogue…Are there insurance coverage markets that they will faucet into and get a payout within the occasion that they get injured or underperform, and might’t safe a $100m plus contract, for instance?   I assume one thing like this should be utilized, when the doubtless future earnings are so nice…
2:45
Ben Clemens: maybe there are, however effectively, an extension is form of like insurance coverage too
2:45
Ben Clemens: so now we’re simply arguing over what sort of insurance coverage to take and which pays higher
2:45
Ben Clemens: or, which is cheaper, slightly
2:45
Ben Clemens: I don’t know the reply to that… however my level is that I’d need insurance coverage
2:46
Hulu Sasaki: Do you suppose groups care that reneging on already established offers to signal Sasaki may harm their fame with IFAs? Or do Latin youngsters have so little leverage that it wouldn’t actually matter
2:46
Ben Clemens: mmmm…. I believe that they may, however I believe ‘sorry, we’ll discover some solution to make this best for you or no less than advocate you to our associates on different groups however this man threw an ideal recreation after which one other 8 good innings’ might be an inexpensive excuse
2:47
Ben Clemens: like, in the event that they’re doing it for some rando, not a lot
2:47
Ben Clemens: however this dude’s well-known
2:47
John B: Lot of analyst anticipate a regression from Ramos. Do you see that?
2:47
Ben Clemens: I believe it is determined by what you imply by regression
2:48
Ben Clemens: I’m larger than Steamer’s 107 wRC+
2:49
Ben Clemens: ZiPS is in between his 2024 and Steamer’s projected 2025 and htinks he’ll be an above common participant
2:49
Ben Clemens: I believe that’s fairly near my view. He’s all the time going to have some strikeout points b/c of his swing, however i believe that his present strategy does a great job of maximizing his skills, and you’ll’t faux bat pace, the man has energy
2:49
Phil: What in the event you took all the carbon out of Luis Castillo and compressed it to make a diamond?
2:50
Ben Clemens: oh man, this received me questioning how dense diamonds are
2:50
Ben Clemens: not almost as dense as I believed is the reply there
2:50
BRAVES: Couldn’t they signal Bregman for 2b and shift Albies to ss?
2:50
Ben Clemens: mmm… I don’t suppose Albies oculd play quick
2:51
Ben Clemens: I’m not saying he’s an terrible defender, however he’s not an unquestionably nice second baseman as it’s, and his weakest side could be his throwing arm
2:52
Ben Clemens: doesn’t scream ‘transfer me to shortstop’ for me
2:52
RAH: Have you ever appeared into Eugenio Suarez’s resurgence, or ought to I say demigod of sizzling streaks? There’s a narrative about swing and recreation prep adjustments made, however how a lot of that efficiency can we really to proceed seeing?
2:52
Ben Clemens: the man could be very streaky
2:53
Ben Clemens: however I’d similar to to level out that he’s a reasonably first rate participant on a regular basis
2:53
Ben Clemens: on the finish of these streaks
2:53
Ben Clemens: and that I’d anticipate him to be fairly first rate once more in 2025
2:53
Ben Clemens: I keep in mind final 12 months I stated that the marketplace for an above common common should be fairly gentle b/c of how little Suarez moved for
2:54
Ben Clemens: and plenty of chatters (not everybody, clearly) had been like ‘no that man is dangerous’
2:54
Ben Clemens: streaky gamers are laborious to judge
2:54
Dealer Jerry: Orioles sending a depth sp like Kremer and center infielder like Ramon Urias for Luis Castillo? Do you see this as sensible?
2:54
Ben Clemens: nope, not anymore than I did 45 minutes in the past on this very chat
2:54
Visitor: Ha-Seong Kim to the Yankees to play 2b makes an excessive amount of sense to not occur.  They’ve an enormous gap at 2b or 3b because of Jazz’s versatility.  Do you suppose there’s a match?
2:55
Ben Clemens: so, that is solely hypothesis
2:55
Ben Clemens: but when I’m Kim, I wish to both play shortstop or safe the bag
2:55
Ben Clemens: b/c his worth is rather a lot larger if he can deal with quick. So a pillow contract the place he’s taking part in shortstop? sure
2:55
Ben Clemens: a five-year deal for some huge cash to play second base in the big apple? sure
2:56
Ben Clemens: a brief deal to play a less-valuable place on a workforce the place you may get moved round greater than you’d want? not bought
2:56
Ben Clemens: mix that with the truth that the Yankees appear to be performing cap-constrained, and I don’t suppose it’s doubtless
2:56
Ben Clemens: it’s a great on-field match however I don’t suppose it matches what Kim’s supreme taking part in scenario is
2:57
Dmx: If there was one all-baseball mvp would you’ve gotten gone Decide or Ohtani this season?
2:57
Ben Clemens: I believe I’d go Ohtani b/c 50/50 was simply so dang cool
2:57
Ben Clemens: however realistically, Decide could be the fitting decide, and I believe he’d win
2:57
Bosoxforlife: You’re proper to query the Pink Sox infield scenario. I haven’t been ready to determine simply what it would seem like. The place do you stand on Casas? I’m removed from satisfied that he’s a stud.
2:58
Ben Clemens: I’m not 100% locked in bought or something, however I might like to have him on my workforce
2:58
Ben Clemens: I actually just like the strategy
2:59
Ben Clemens: I’d be fearful about well being
2:59
Ben Clemens: however, I believe I’d slightly have him than a whole lot of ALE 1B
3:00
Ben Clemens: all of them besides Vlad, principally
3:00
AJ Preller: Do you see SD shifting Arraez or Stop earlier than the season begins?
3:00
Ben Clemens: I believe Stop is 50%+ doubtless
3:01
Ben Clemens: I believe that Arraez doesn’t have a ton of worth in commerce. Not that he’s a nasty participant, to be clear, simply, a 115 wRC+ positionless hitter is just not precisely going to fetch a king’s ransom
3:02
Spring Coaching: Isn’t it typically smarter for groups to attend for spring coaching and 60 day IL placements earlier than buying and selling away gamers?
3:02
Ben Clemens: that’ll occur this 12 months too, there might be one other wave of trades after roster squeezes come down somehwat
3:02
Henry Dodger: I may see Roki going to the Dodgers, certain, however I don’t consider within the handshake settlement or something. He looks like an idiosyncratic man who’s weighing every part. Do you suppose it’s been a honest course of?
3:03
Ben Clemens: and I believe that he’s much more doubtless than your common NPB celebrity to spurn the large coastal metropolis markets
3:03
RAH: To be clear, I’m not asking about Eugenio’s season ending numbers. These appear to be inside affordable vary of profession norms. However 2024 noticed him go off and carry out as among the best hitters in baseball for about 3 months straight. With out wanting it up, i assume that’s the longest stretch with that form of manufacturing since his 49 HR season with the enjoyable ball of 2019.
3:03
Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, I imply, I simply consider him as very streaky
3:03
Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose he’ll proceed that manufacturing. and possibly, there’ll be a month the place you’re like ‘we can’t afford to maintain taking part in this man’
3:03
Ben Clemens: after which a month the place nobody can get him out
3:03
6 man rotation: Will extra groups undertake a 6 man rotations?
3:04
Ben Clemens: yeah. I believe that this can be a long-term development (6-man reg season, 4-man playoffs) that can proceed to speed up
3:04
Bosoxforlife: If I’m appropriate in hoping the Pink Sox OF in 2025 is Duran in CF with Anthony and Abreu manning the corners then I don’t see a spot for Rafaela, who I believe is definitely Miles Straw in disguise.
3:04
Ben Clemens: I’m undecided on Rafaela quickly
3:04
Ben Clemens: I believe I’d want 4 guys for 3 spots b/c it leaves room for considered one of them to bust
3:04
Ben Clemens: but when they’re actually resource-constrained and will get an ideal infielder for Rafaela, I say do it
3:05
Ben Clemens: to me, although, their best path ahead is to simply not do something
3:05
Ben Clemens: outfield-wise
3:05
Ben Clemens: alright, on that be aware, I’m gonna head out and make some lunch
3:05
Ben Clemens: let’s chat once more quickly, by which I imply on usually scheduled Mondays
3:05
Ben Clemens: and have a beautiful week, everybody

 

Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He might be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.



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