Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 12/13/24

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12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from sunny Tempe. I returned from Dallas yesterday night, had a good time with the entire FG crew and different baseball buddies, redeemed town after ASB.
12:08
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m gonna preempt plenty of questions by posting a number of hyperlinks to get began…
12:09
Eric A Longenhagen: A number of of us asking concerning the Crochet return. My ideas went dwell a couple of minutes in the past. Kyle Teel Headlines Strong Return Bundle for White Sox in Garrett Crochet Commerce | FanGraphs Baseball
12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: Briefly: A lot better than any of the offers they made final yr.
12:10
Eric A Longenhagen: I additionally wrote up the Guardians return for Spencer Horwitz
12:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay let’s chat.
12:11
Jon G: Cubs apparently are down to maneuver Cam Smith in a Kyle Tucker deal. Any guess of how a lot that’ll damage to look presently subsequent yr when Tucker’s on the free agent market?
12:13
Eric A Longenhagen: I like Cam however I feel Tucker is an MVP candidate and I’d be tempted to make that commerce. The blow can be softened by the presence of Matt Shaw, who I feel is a extra pure match at 3B than both MIF spot and possibly the long run reply there…
12:14
Eric A Longenhagen: However I’d additionally wanna really feel a little bit extra assured that my roster was truly a contending roster earlier than I made a knowingly brief sighted transfer like that.
12:14
Jim: Do any of the A’s younger pitchers undertaking as greater than again of the rotation starters? Pondering Estes, Ginn, Spence, Boyle, Basso, Harris, Waldichuk, Medina, Hoglund, Barnett, Perkins, and Morales.
12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: I feel Ginn’s sinker will enable him to eat innings such that he’s not only a vanilla 5. Barnett identical factor, his stuff is fairly good and he’s confirmed that he can deal with the workload and maintain it….
12:15
Eric A Longenhagen: Morales has large upside, remains to be uncooked. A number of variance there, however he has probably the most upside of that group by rather a lot.
12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Waldy and Medina I appreciated as a no. 4 SP and late-inning RP, respectively.
12:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Obvs Waldy was unhealthy after which received damage.
12:16
Dallas: Ought to Konnor Griffin be extra extremely regarded contemplating his instruments and talent to play premium positions? To me, idk if every other prospect has extra upside than him.
12:18
Eric A Longenhagen: His proper tail outcomes are large, sure. The best way I grade gamers takes bust threat and dev time under consideration and each are related in Griffin’s case
12:18
House Case: Have you ever made eyes on Jesus Made but, Eric? What do you assume or do I want to attend? Comfortable Hollidays Sir. What would you want for Christmas?
12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: Should you’re talking from a dynasty league standpoint, if it’s very arduous to entry franchise sort gamers then go for it. I’ve seen a number of video games on tape, he appears to be like the half and his trackman knowledge was ridiculous. He’s undoubtedly a prime 100 man, I’ll want extra earlier than I stuff him in he prime 25 or one thing like that
12:20
Eric A Longenhagen: For christmas, hmmm….
12:21
Eric A Longenhagen: IDK perhaps it’s time for a brand new guitar?
12:21
MrMet: How does your evaluation/valuation of high-contact, questionable-power prospects like McGonigle or Brito versus light-power-power, high-k guys distinction with how MLB groups would possibly worth these prospects?
12:24
Eric A Longenhagen: It actually will depend on the workforce, and likewise varies individual to individual inside that workforce’s scouting or analyst group. I have a tendency to love the excessive contact guys even after they lack overt bodily projection, however I have a tendency to not undertaking on these kinds the way in which others would possibly wanting solely at their age.
12:24
Sodo Mojo: As a Mariners fan I simply turned much more within the prime of this years draft.  I do know its early however how does the expertise on the  prime of this years draft evaluate to the final three?
12:25
Eric A Longenhagen: I feel there are a few guys who’ve an argument to be prime 100 prospects instantly, like two or three at this stage. By draft time that quantity is extra like 6. It’s attainable a real top-of-the-class slam dunk will emerge by then however I don’t assume there may be one now…
12:26
Eric A Longenhagen: I really like Tyler Bremner from UC Santa Barbara and assume he’s as near a prime 3-to-5 lock because the draft has proper now. Listed here are my notes on him proper now: Free, versatile, and lean right-hander who sits mid 90s together with his FB and was routinley within the upper-90s throughout shorter bursts with Staff USA through the summer time of ’24. Posted a .88 WHIP as a soph at UCSB. Has a shot to develop three plus pitches. Fastball averaged 95 mph through the common season with plus rise/run motion. Additionally includes a two-plane, bat-missing slider with tight, arduous spin and unusual velocity (85-88 mph) for a pitch with above-average size. Bremner’s greatest pitch is likely to be a changeup that can flash huge depth and late fading motion. There are stretches the place his arm slot drops when throwing the cambio however you’ll be able to go loopy projecting on that pitch due to his fluidity and arm pace. One of many prime pitching prospects within the 2025 draft and a possible prime 5 choose..
12:27
Eric A Longenhagen: I feel Corona SS Billy Carlson is he greatest highschool prospect and might be a 1.1 candidate if he exhibits up sronger within the spring. Plus defender, 7 arm, carried out from a bat-to-ball standpoint towards HS showcase guys.
12:28
Eric A Longenhagen: Aiva Arquette is the opposite participant who checks mainly all of the bins from a defenseive match/offensive efficiency standpoint, and he has the overt bodily projection you search for in a high-ceiling man. He may blow up and go 1.
12:29
Eric A Longenhagen: So these are my three prime guys proper now.
12:29
wheelhouse: That is clearly a lot simpler mentioned than performed, and might be mentioned of a thousand prospects who by no means turned something, however: what does a model of Spencer Jones who improves his swing selections sufficient to run a Ok% down round 30 on the main league degree seem like? I don’t assume he’ll ever get the whiff per swing fee to common, however that doesn’t actually decide the harm a man does on contact
12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: Perhaps a shade higher than Oneil Cruz’s 2024 line? Spenny’s energy is extra actualized on contact through higher launch.
12:31
Eric A Longenhagen: There aren’t many minor leaguers who’ve managed 57% arduous hit charges. Matt Wallner perhaps in there, too.
12:32
AL Central Casting: Do the Twins have sufficient SP depth within the higher minors (together with guys like SWR, Festa, and Matthews) to really feel comfy in the event that they commerce Chris Paddack?
12:36
Tacoby Bellsbury: Was there something within the minor-league Rule V draft value noticing?
12:37
Eric A Longenhagen: Lotta groups taking guys who they assume can truly play C/SS simply an an org depth improve at these spots….
12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: A number of pitching reclamation tasks. DeVito, Franco, Floyd, Peek, guys who’ve been damage or whose profession took a bizarre flip.
12:38
Eric A Longenhagen: Hajjar is that, too
12:39
Eric A Longenhagen: The highest choose, Joseph Yabbour, was sitting 96-98 on the finish of the yr at St. Lucie’s nearer. Actually wild man, however has upside if the White Sox can polish him up
12:41
Phil: As a Crimson Sox fan, I’ve sophisticated emotions about this commerce. I perceive that Teel was the least heralded of the Heralded 4, and naturally I’m delighted to nonetheless have Anthony. However there are so few catchers round, someway, and the Sox are already taking part in one who I feel could also be secretly a second basemen. Is Teel perhaps additional away than I believed? Is Narvaez any individual?
12:42
Eric A Longenhagen: I can be engaged on writing up the Carlos Narvaez/Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz deal as soon as we get off right here. I mentioned out loud within the media workroom after the Crochet deal broke that the Yankees had been the workforce with a catching surplus for Boston to siphon from however I didn’t assume they’d truly consummate one thing..
12:43
Eric A Longenhagen: I at present have Narvaez eval’d as a power-over-hit third catcher. Will clearly take a contemporary go at him after I write the piece.
12:45
Refugee: Respect your perception on Over-Slot not too long ago. Do you take into account Ethan Holliday’s swing flaw being recognized this early one thing that works for (he’s not even 18 but) or towards him?
12:47
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m undecided it’s correctable, I feel his fingers simply work in a means that leaves him very weak to many fastballs up/away. I’ve him extra center of the primary spherical. 72% contact man on the showcase circuit, hit .240 and slugged .380 if you add up his whole multi-year showcase pattern. Love the uncooked energy potential, don’t assume the efficiency deserves a prime 5 choose. However the Colorado/Holliday connection and Washington’s willingness to take guys like Elijah Inexperienced looms.
12:48
Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Of Baltimore’s three 50 FV starters (Povich/McDermott/Younger), which one are you most in on? Facet notice: McDermott’s fastball visually appears to be like probably the most spectacular of his pitches however stuff fashions don’t take care of it (?)
12:48
Eric A Longenhagen: I feel I’d have Younger first (lock SP), then McDermott (agree with you concerning the FB), after which Povich who I’m fearful has much less exact command than he must thrive with fairly vanilla stuff.
12:50
Hyperart Thomasson: What are your ideas on projecting additional energy manufacturing for Spencer Horwitz? Is bat pace the one obvious deficiency in his profile, and what’s your sense of gamers and dev teams capability or monitor file of bettering bat pace w/o compromising contact fee and high quality?
12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: That man has undoubtedly made himself stronger than I’d have guessed and he appears to be like completely ripped, however yeah the bat pace is the bat pace. As a result of minor league bat pace isn’t an goal factor I’ve entry to any identification of adjustments such as you describe is dicey, proper? However yeah generally guys like Kristian Campbell simply begin swinging means, means tougher and there’s at all times some quantity of give to their hit software. If the inspiration was ok that they Ok extra however nonetheless at a workable fee, then cool.
12:52
Eric A Longenhagen: If there’s variability in projecting Horwitz it’s in all probability coming extra from whether or not an org assume he can play 2B or not. Much less to do together with his offense.
12:53
Visitor: Ideas on Travis Hunter being listed as ATH as his place & whether or not or not he’ll get drafted by the As ?
12:54
Eric A Longenhagen: Lol, I don’t know whether or not he’s going to have the ability to play each methods within the NFL. I need to hear the Dane Bruglers and Connor Rogers of the world on that subject. I do assume Mykell Williams is a darkish horse 1.1 candidate although, I’d take him over Abdul Carter as my prime edge man.
12:55
Kate: Not a prospect anymore, however what do you consider Max Meyer at this level?  Really feel like he wants to include the changeup and sinker extra.  The fourseam doesn’t appear robust sufficient to be extra of a two-pitch man.
12:55
Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, it might have been silly to assume that he’d maintain the arm power he confirmed pre-pandemic (as much as 102 right here in AZ) for a complete season however to lose like seven ticks is fairly wild.
12:57
Lord Thunder: How distant are the Nationals’ duo of 6’6” 20-year-old pitchers, Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana, from reaching the Dollander-Chandler-Sproat tier on The Board?
12:59
Eric A Longenhagen: How ever distant from the 40-man they’re, mainly. Each might be back-of-the-100 sorts this cycle, strikes had been there for each this yr, Susana crested 100 innings i feel. Proving it with 120+ innings and being on the cusp of the majors is mainly a compulsory factor for me to place a pitching prospect within the prime 30
12:59
doughboy: Leaving most definitely candidates of it (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Padres) Which mid-market workforce would you say has one of the best sources and infrastructure to legitimately have a shot at Roki Sasaki?
1:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Baltimore got here to thoughts first. One thing about Sasaki’s purported grave seriousness matches with Adley and that group. That org has performed properly with pitching….
1:03
Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, who else?
1:05
Eric A Longenhagen: I selfishly need him to be a D’Again, Carroll would get to take a step again from the highlight in a means that is likely to be good for him. No Walker within the clubhouse, although.
1:06
Eric A Longenhagen: The Rays or Las Vegas Athletics of Sacramento can be a enjoyable match, I wanna see a minor league park deal with that media deluge.
1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Clearly Cleveland, Seattle, Atlanta, locations which have proven they will make pitchers good, would all appear to be nice matches (although clearly SEA’s want will not be at present pitching)
1:07
Eric A Longenhagen: Milwaukee on that record too
1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: Non-zero shot to be the set-up man, must be extra constant. That child was at an AFL sport like three days after they gained the ship, simply needed to be round baseball.
1:08
Lord Thunder: After a fairly disappointing debut within the majors final yr, is Bryan Ramos nonetheless the White Sox’ 3Bman of the longer term?
1:08
Eric A Longenhagen: The dearth of bat pace scares me however I’m nonetheless on his protection in a giant, huge means.
1:09
Sam: Do you assume Teel would be the greatest prospect traded this winter?
1:09
Mordecai and Rigby: There was a lot discuss of the “Golden AB” a number of weeks again (I hate the thought myself), however what are your ideas on it? I personally need ABS in place and assume MLB can be higher and look very completely different as soon as that is carried out.
1:11
Eric A Longenhagen: Hate it, feels to remote from a core side of baseball which is “take your flip”. I’m professional Problem System (it’s going to be a giant, huge deal and everybody will adore it, it’s going to be tremendous enjoyable to be within the stadium when the group roasts a visiting participant for being incorrect) however not full ABS.
1:12
Eric A Longenhagen: The change they’re in search of it that. It provides nuance to the sport. Full ABS takes nuance away.
1:14
McBain: Does Colorado not making a Rule 5 choose border on malfeasance?
1:16
Eric A Longenhagen: Eh, I simply peeked at their full 40-man and I suppose one of many relievers on the backside of the roster may have jettisoned to make room for somebody with extra upside. I like Herget, Chicken, and so on. however including Bastardo who you’ll be able to 60-day immediately perhaps would have been a very good transfer.
1:17
Mordecai and Rigby: Ethan Holliday was not nice through the summer time circuit similar to his huge bro, however what are the important thing variations of their swings? The bodily builds and actions are clearly very completely different, however how do their bat paths evaluate?
1:17
Eric A Longenhagen: Jackson was actually good.
1:17
Eric A Longenhagen: The facility arrived the next day spring however the contact was at all times there
1:19
Eric A Longenhagen: Ooop, thanks for this. I’ve gotta run and get notes to Ben on Caleb Durbin, as he’s writing up the commerce. Lemme take a number of fast hearth questions actually shortly…
1:19
Benjamin: How a lot do you consider the malleability of expertise? For instance, how a lot do you lean on prior capability to enhance say, zone contact, even contextualizing inside a corporation? Do you’re feeling strongly about some expertise being extra innate than others, exterior of issues like he’s 6’7 with broad shoulders sort insights?
1:22
Eric A Longenhagen: Nice query. I are likely to assume contact is much less malleable and that there are particular guys who merely can not ID offspeed stuff regardless of how a lot they see it. I don’t assume the latter is common. I feel some purely bodily instruments might be improved by way of higher mechanical effectivity and a few groups (be it through use of tech or simply scout/coach/dev personnels’ eye for this kind of factor)  are higher at figuring out, “hey, that participant might be higher if he moved like this or was positioned like that”
1:23
Mordecai and Rigby: Do you ever surprise how Kyler Murray can be doing if he dedicated to the A’s in alternate universe?
1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, typically.
1:23
RyanW: Which of those guys turns right into a celebrity? Ok. Campbell, Leo Devries, Jesus Made, Sebastian Walcott
1:23
Eric A Longenhagen: Walcott
1:24
Visitor: Any information on the Caleb Durbin. Prospect included within the Devin Williams commerce
1:26
Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, the complete chat is simply Caleb Durbin questions which I feel is an indication that I ought to depart. TBD on chat subsequent week as a result of I’m touring to Philly for a marriage and the vacations. Till then…

 

Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and at present lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent 4 years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Data Options and two contributing to prospect protection at ESPN.com. Earlier work will also be discovered at Sports activities On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.



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