RosterResource Chat – 12/13/24

Jason Martinez: Hey everyone. Jon and I are again from Winter Conferences. It wasn’t essential for us to be in Dallas to replace all the roster strikes that occurred, however we had been capable of meet up with our FanGraphs colleagues and had our annual RosterResource assembly. Hopefully, we’ll have some extra cool RR options added within the close to future. Ask us some questions.

Some kinda Mook: Hendricks is prone to be the first nearer in Boston if wholesome, proper?

Jon Becker: My guess is that with none additional additions they’ll “platoon” Hendriks and Chapman based mostly on matchups, they usually’ll most likely watch out with Hendriks about back-to-back video games within the early going anyway. Justin Slaten’s another choice too.

Jason Martinez: Yep. I’d guess he’d have an opportunity to be the “main” nearer someday in Might if he seems just like the previous Liam Hendriks and capable of pitch back-to-back days.

Justin: On Cortes for Williams, I really feel like a possible 2.5-3 win pitcher is an excessive amount of to surrender for a reliever. Plus the Yankees additionally gave the Brewers cash and a prospect. Am I off-base right here? Thanks!

Jason Martinez: Do not forget that Cortes had a flexor pressure to finish the season and was solely added to the playoff roster once they had been snug that he might pitch in reduction. It’s attainable that he received’t pitch in any respect in 2025, though they most likely received’t know a lot till he ramps up in spring. My guess is that the Brewers actually like Durbin and likewise made positive to get some $ again due to Cortes’ damage threat.

Jon Becker: I additionally suppose the context issues right here, in that Cortes was most likely seventh on the SP depth chart for the Yankees so he was expendable for them.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Ideas on which Rule 5 guys landed into conditions the place they could stick?

Jon Becker: Shane Smith and Evan Reifert come to thoughts, since each the White Sox and Nationals have wide-open bullpens proper now. Was stunned Reifert wasn’t picked a bit of earlier, really.

Cubbles: Any traction on Kyle Tucker getting traded? If not the Cubs, what different groups may make a transfer? NYY appears out after dealing Nestor.

Jason Martinez: Sounds prefer it’s getting shut. If it occurs through the chat, I’ll be stepping away for 5-10 minutes to replace issues. Cubs look like the principle focus proper now with Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith a part of the deal.

MilledgeReport: Mets seemingly so as to add one other SP? Any ideas on who? Rotation trying a bit of mild in the intervening time.

Jon Becker: I feel they’ll, yeah, particularly since a six-man is believable (if not going) to maintain Senga and Holmes wholesome and restrict their innings a bit. Stearns isn’t the sort to spend large on starters regardless of all of Steve Cohen’s cash, so I feel it will be somebody like Pivetta or Buehler.

Baltimoron: Wtf is Elias doing

Jason Martinez: Apparently, right-handed energy was a precedence: transfer within the fences and signal two right-handed batters (Tyler O’Neill, Gary Sanchez) with plus-plus energy. Lineup is superb. Bullpen needs to be positive. Prime precedence needs to be including a frontline starter, though they don’t appear prone to get Burnes again. Possibly they add Manaea or Flaherty. Possibly Walker Buehler.

Jon Becker: Doesn’t sound like they had been all that excited by buying and selling for Crochet both; Eflin being the Opening Day starter strikes me as likelier than not.

Nickles: As soon as signed, does Roki Sasaki develop into probably the most invaluable asset by way of roster development in baseball given how beneath market his deal shall be?

Jon Becker: I don’t suppose the most respected, since he’s not going to be any cheaper than all the different pre-arbitration gamers doing rather well proper now. Paul Skenes is immensely underpaid, for instance.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Javier Baez is underneath contract by way of 2027. With the Tigers now a contender, what’s absolutely the earliest you could possibly see them dropping him and consuming the remainder of the deal? Really feel like I by no means see that occur earlier than the final yr of a contract, however…

Jason Martinez: I feel 2026 on the earliest. Not in 2025 since Trey Sweeney, regardless of him holding his personal final season, remains to be unproven over a full season. Baez offers them insurance coverage at beginning SS and, at least, a platoon participant who’s above-average at SS/3B/SS. And he’s a bounce-back candidate.

Jon Becker: I additionally don’t suppose Báez is magically going to be actually good once more however it’s price noting that the again damage actually appeared to have an effect on him.

Ham Fighter: Am I too optimistic in believing that Caleb Durbin shall be competitors with Dunn/Monasterio for backup IF and the Brewers will nonetheless purchase a beginning calibre IF earlier than the offseason is over?

Jon Becker: I feel getting $4.5M or so (per Nightengale) again within the commerce is useful at liberating up a bit of bit of money to signal somebody, although it’s not like you may get anybody nice for simply $4.5M. Ha-Seong Kim makes a whole lot of sense for them regardless that he received’t be prepared for Opening Day.

Ryan: Which workforce that hasn’t actually made any strikes but surprises you probably the most?

Jason Martinez: I’ll go together with the Nationals. Good younger core of place gamers and beginning pitchers and able to take the subsequent large step. If that’s the plan, it hasn’t occurred but and not likely a lot buzz surrounding them able to do one thing large.

Jon Becker: They had been my decide to have the largest offseason of the non-playoff groups, and that actually received’t be true with the Giants having signed Adames.

J: If the Cubs do commerce for Tucker, presumably Bellinger will get dealt shortly after. However even then, how do they cope with the outfield logjam? Suzuki is outwardly not eager on DHing they usually have Alcantara and Caissie ready within the wings.

Jon Becker: Suzuki’s not eager on DHing however he would simply should, frankly (they usually might give Tucker and Happ some days there). I don’t suppose they’re going to commerce another person to make room for Alcantara or Caissie, in the event that they’re prepared it’ll work itself out.

Visitor: Do you imagine 26 begins is the common end result for deGrom begins as listed within the Depth Charts after this a few years of being harm?

Jason Martinez: I’ve loads of readers and colleagues who disagree with my philosophy on the way to challenge taking part in time with the system we now have in place. And, with reference to deGrom, it’s this: He’s absolutely wholesome. He pitched on the finish of final season. He makes $40MM. And I’ve him projected to overlook round 6 weeks. Lower than me to foretell that he’ll have an damage that can hold him out longer than that. The reader could make that judgement.

TW: Do you suppose the Rangers will/ought to transfer Lowe now that they’ve Burger?

Jon Becker: Wouldn’t shock me in the event that they did, however I don’t suppose they need to only for the sake of it. Depth is essential, particularly with large query marks across the well being of Carter and Jung, and García underperforming this yr.

Keith: Thanks guys. How seemingly the Brewers transfer Turang to SS if Durbin clicks in spring coaching?

Jason Martinez: I heard an interview with both Matt Arnold or Pat Murphy (sorry, don’t bear in mind which one) and he pressured that each Ortiz or Turang could be actually good at SS. They’d reasonably not transfer Turang off of 2B since he simply proved that he’s probably the greatest within the recreation there, however stated they had been open to it relying on how issues shake out. Is Durbin the man that’s gonna shake issues up? Undecided he’s that man, however it will be Durbin at 2B, Ortiz at 3B, and Turang at SS if that occurred to be the case. Undecided the plan is to enter Spring Coaching with out yet one more confirmed choice.

By the best way, that was my preliminary projection however I modified my thoughts and went with a safer one for now … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/brewers

Joe: Is NYY actually the one potential taker for Bellinger?

Jon Becker: Astros and Mariners are also reportedly excited by him, however the newest indicators level to the Yankees, particularly if/when Tucker to Chicago will get carried out.

victoria: paredes + Smith + Wesneski is the ultimate bundle

Jason Martinez: “Anticipated to be” are the phrases in Jon Heyman’s final tweet. These usually are not included within the magic phrases I want earlier than I make the replace. However, yeah, looks as if it’s about to go down.

Banjo, for breakfast?: At this (admittedly outrageously early) level of the low season, who’s your decide for the veteran participant that finally ends up on an NRI deal who finally ends up offering probably the most 2025 WAR for his or her workforce?

Jon Becker: I most likely have to select somebody who hasn’t even signed but, because it’s going to be the kind of participant who’s holding out for an MLB deal however can’t discover one. Possibly Nicky Lopez has a randomly good BABIP- and fielding-fueled two-win season?

fuz: What’s the info behind slotting Angel Martinez at 2B for the Guardians?  Appears affordable however questioning what you might need heard.

Jason Martinez: Initially, I used to be able to put Juan Brito in that spot earlier than I learn a number of scouting studies on him. Appears restricted defensively and nonetheless some holes in his recreation that made me marvel if that’s who they had been clearing a spot for. They actually had been attempting to get Martinez within the lineup final season and batting him close to the highest of the order for a bit. I don’t suppose he’s a positive factor, however I’d give him the sting within the present group of contenders.

Jason Martinez: Stepping away for about 10 minutes because the Tucker-to-Cubs deal is completed. Jon will take over till I return.

visitor: Hello Jason and Jon, (by chance hit enter lol). With the A”s lastly!!! dispensing a large contract at solely $67 million to Severino, it reveals that they’re positively able to spending more cash.   2024 payroll pages, 10 of the 30 MLB groups are hovering round $110mil or beneath payroll, whereas the highest 10 groups are above $200mil with two surpassing $300mil for each Mets and Yankees. Of the underside 10 and off the highest of my head, Baltimore, Washington, Detroit have all proven desired to spend and compete up to now, and really effectively might within the close to future. What does the MLB/Manfred should do to get groups like Oakland, Cleveland, Tampa, Pittsburgh, even Miami and Cincinnati to spend and compete extra? Are there any strings they will pull to incentivize spending? Punish complacency? Establishing a backside cap? Thanks to your smarter enter than me!

Jon Becker: There are already guidelines in place to guarantee that groups who obtain income sharing funds are literally reallocating that cash into the workforce — I imagine the present CBA says {that a} workforce’s payroll must be 1.5x what they obtain in income sharing or else the MLBPA can file a grievance, although the punishment for that isn’t actually clear. Undoubtedly could be a fan of a wage ground however I don’t suppose that will occur and not using a laborious cap, which I’m very a lot not a fan of .

Justin: Looks like the Hader/McCullers/Pressley/Abreu contracts are inflicting the Astros to not have the ability to hold Bregman and Tucker. Is that this mismanagement or simply unhealthy luck on a few of the outcomes.

Jon Becker: It’s each, I feel. The Hader and Pressly contracts have labored out positive, Abreu, Montero, and McCullers have clearly been disasters (the McCullers one by way of no fault of his personal). However there was a bit of little bit of mismanagement, too; the Cristian Javier contract was fairly above-market for somebody along with his service time.

Edward: Suits for NYY to spherical out the lineup?

Jon Becker: The aforementioned Bellinger makes a whole lot of sense, as would buying somebody like Brandon Lowe to play second or first and take goal on the brief porch. Don’t love Bregman as a slot in that park however it could effectively occur anyway.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Of the younger RPs who ascended to nearer final season, who do you suppose has one of the best likelihood to carry that job at the least till opening day? (Considering Faucher, J Martinez, P Hodge… is perhaps forgetting somebody)

Jon Becker: Faucher might be likeliest on Opening Day because it’s not just like the Marlins are going so as to add anybody of notice to compete with or take the job from him outright. Martinez needs to be in excessive leverage all yr however I might see them utilizing Puk in some conditions if the matchups are higher.

DET: Which two of Mize, Jobe, Maeda, Hurter, Montero, Manning, Gipson-Lengthy will log probably the most begins for the Tigers subsequent yr?

Jon Becker: I’ll say Mize and Manning. Jobe will pitch loads however they’re most likely going to restrict him to at the least some extent, Maeda appears to be in an uphill climb for begins since he didn’t look that a lot better out of the bullpen.

Chris: I do know they needed to pivot after dropping Soto however i dont get the Yanks’ collection of strikes. Signal a 31 yo pitcher for 8 yrs to huge cash, then flip round and commerce a sneakily good starter and your purported 2B for one yr of a more in-depth when relievers will be had wherever. And even speaking about Gil and Rice for a one yr rental in Tucker is nuts.

Jon Becker: Yeah, there’s positively a whole lot of threat with Fried, although I don’t have an issue in any respect with the bundle they gave up for Williams. Cortes was buried on the depth chart and Durbin might be helpful however isn’t significantly extremely regarded. And seeing what the Cubs gave up for Tucker, I don’t suppose Gil + Rice would have gotten it carried out anyway.

Tucker: Ideas on cubs bundle for Tucker?

Jon Becker: Steep value to pay for positive, however Wesneski’s acquired one thing of a homer downside they usually may’ve seen Paredes and Smith as redundant sufficient to maneuver with Matt Shaw ready within the wings.

Jon Becker: I’ve acquired to log off to replace the payroll pages with the Tucker commerce, Jason will take it from right here!

Jason Martinez: Listed here are my preliminary up to date roster projections after the Astros-Cubs commerce …

Cubs: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/cubs

Astros: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/astros

Jason Martinez: I feel the Cubs will add a veteran 3B as a stop-gap for Matt Shaw. No matter caliber that stop-gap is will inform us how a lot they imagine in Shaw. Seems like they suppose he’s going to assist in 2025. Undecided if it’s on Opening Day, though I wouldn’t rule it out.

Jason Martinez: Clearly, a Bellinger commerce may be very prone to occur and that will clear issues up of their OF.

Banjo, for breakfast?: Generally I play a recreation the place, the second I see a transaction occur, I rush to RosterResource to see if I can catch it earlier than you’ve up to date the web page(s)… I’ve by no means received.

Jason Martinez: You most likely received on this one. This units up each groups to make extra strikes so not every little thing fell proper into place with this projection. Took a bit longer.

Bregman: Astros – With Paredes added, Bregman has gotta be gone proper?

Jason Martinez: Until they’ve one other commerce arrange for Paredes, that appears to be the case. And Paredes does seem to be an excellent slot in that ballpark so my assumption is that they’re shifting on from Bregman and their focus needs to be on the OF, which (in response to me) is at the moment projected as Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, and Taylor Trammell.

Visitor: Is slaten a reduction solely choice or are the sox contemplating stretching him out to be a starter

Jason Martinez: Haven’t seen something on Slaten, particularly, however I wouldn’t rule it out as a result of it doesn’t actually have an effect on his position within the bullpen. If something, it simply offers him extra worth as a multi-inning reliever if he’s stretched out to 3-4 innings they usually resolve they don’t want him as a starter this season. They’re stretching out Michael Fulmer and (I’m assuming) Josh Winckowski and I feel they’ll additionally find yourself within the bullpen.

Justin: What are the possibilities the Mets beginning the yr with Baty and Vientos at 3b and 1b? There aren’t a whole lot of choices in FA apart from Bregman, Alonso and Walker.

Jason Martinez: In the event that they don’t re-sign Alonso, I feel chances are high first rate that would be the case. Baty was a very good prospect earlier than the damage. Mets can most likely afford to have one unproven man (with large upside) on the backside of their lineup. I feel there’s additionally some commerce potentialities, although. The rest of the offseason needs to be enjoyable.

Tucker: Thanks.  For those who had been an Astros fan, how would you’re feeling concerning the return?

Jason Martinez: I’d be bummed out as a result of which means (most likely) Bregman and Tucker are formally gone, Cam Smith higher find yourself being actually good within the close to future, and the remainder of our offseason higher be ok to make me really feel much less bummed out.

Ryan: Do you suppose the Diamondbacks make any big-time strikes or will they principally be bargain-hunters this offseason? Fairly quiet thus far

Jason Martinez: I feel they’re one of many quiet groups which can be able to popping out of nowhere to make a giant transfer. They’ve carried out that previously. Focus proper now might be on attempting to commerce Jordan Montgomery or certainly one of their different starters. My guess is that they’ll add a giant bat at 1B or nook OF. It might be enjoyable in the event that they acquired Cody Bellinger.

Jason Martinez: That can do it for at this time’s chat. We’ll be again subsequent Friday. Thanks for becoming a member of us!