The Blue Jays got here into the offseason at a crossroads. With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette headed without spending a dime company after the 2025 season, the stress is on: Make the playoffs or go the whole thing of their workforce management years with no single playoff win. (They’re 0-6 in three Wild Card sequence.) It’s no shock they have been in on Juan Soto, and after arising brief there, they pivoted to the commerce market, buying Andrés Giménez (and Nick Sandlin) from the Cleveland Guardians in trade for Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell. The Guardians then despatched Horwitz on to the Pirates in trade for Luis L. Ortiz, Michael Kennedy, and Josh Hartle, all of whom we’ll break down in a forthcoming publish.
This commerce improves the Blue Jays’ outlook for 2025, and it does so in a method that matches their latest team-building to a T. Two years in the past, they added Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier, maybe the 2 finest defensive outfielders in baseball, and often performed them collectively. They gave Santiago Espinal common taking part in time when his protection graded out properly, then phased him out in favor of latest defensive wunderkind Ernie Clement when Espinal faltered defensively. They used Isiah Kiner-Falefa to patch defensive holes throughout the diamond till they traded him this previous summer season. Now they’re including Giménez, top-of-the-line infield defenders in all of baseball, to the combo.
Final season marked Giménez’s third straight Gold Glove and second straight Fielding Bible award. The voters (full disclosure: I’m one in all them) didn’t give it to him on status. He’s not only a shortstop taking part in second base; he’s an excellent shortstop taking part in second base. He has the strongest throwing arm of any second baseman and makes use of it to his benefit, ranging up the center to make outrageous performs. He has delicate arms and fast reflexes. Statcast credit him with 37 runs above common over the previous three years, tops within the majors. DRS thinks Statcast is being too modest – it credit him with 59 runs saved, 22 forward of second place.
The Jays might use the assistance. Whereas they have been markedly enhancing their outfield protection over the previous two years, their infielders struggled. Toronto went from an above-average unit in 2022 (9 outs above common) to a bottom-half group in every of the final two years. Second base was a part of the issue: Kiner-Falefa did properly in restricted time there, however Cavan Biggio after which Davis Schneider performed loads of innings on the keystone and didn’t grade out notably properly. It’s onerous to assemble a great defensive infield with two so-so defenders (Guerrero and Bichette) whereas having a weak fielder at second base. That isn’t the case anymore; now, I’d think about this one of many high items within the recreation.
It’s uncommon to start out a dialogue of a star participant together with his protection, however make no mistake, Giménez is a star. He signed a seven-year, $106.5 million contract earlier than the 2023 season, with a workforce possibility for 2030. At 26, he already has a six-win season in his rear view mirror, one which earned him MVP votes. However in his case, protection actually is the draw. His profession batting line, .261/.322/.393, works out to a 103 wRC+, roughly league common.
In 2024, he was meaningfully worse than that. He hit .252/.298/.340, launched a paltry 9 dwelling runs, and ended the season batting within the backside third of the offensively challenged Guardians lineup. We’re projecting he’ll bounce again towards his profession common, however irrespective of the way you slice it, the Blue Jays need Giménez for his glove first and his offensive contributions second.
I feel that makes a ton of sense for Toronto. It’s onerous to seek out defenders this good who’re even satisfactory offensively. It’s even more durable to seek out defenders with multi-year observe data, and practically unimaginable to get them with six years of workforce management. At slightly below $20 million a 12 months for the following 5 seasons, he’s a discount by just about any monetary framework. Borderline All-Stars make greater than that in free company, if you happen to may even discover ones who match this archetype. Willy Adames may be the closest factor to Giménez in free company this winter. His 2025 WAR projection is analogous, he too is a plus defender at an up-the-middle place who has been barely above common offensively. It’s not an ideal match – Adames is a greater hitter and on the decline defensively – nevertheless it’s not less than within the ballpark. Adames obtained extra years at a better common annual worth than Giménez’s remaining contract, and he’s three years older in addition.
For a workforce that’s each prepared to spend cash (witness Toronto’s pursuit of Soto) and all for protection, Giménez is an ideal match. He’ll make this roster extra cohesive. Schneider headlines a bunch of utility gamers higher suited to the nook outfield and occasional cameos within the infield than full-time roles with their toes on the grime, and now that’s precisely the function they’ll have.
This lineup continues to be gentle on impression hitters, however the Jays weren’t going to get a kind of at second base, so in getting Giménez, they’ll don’t have any drawback sliding an influence bat with a shaky glove into their lineup as a result of they’ve such stable up-the-middle protection.
In Cleveland, the equation was completely different. The Guardians are extraordinarily cost-conscious; with Giménez out of city, solely José Ramírez and Shane Bieber have significant multi-year assured contracts. (Bieber’s new deal is for one 12 months and $14 million with a $16 million participant possibility and a $4 million buyout for 2026, and whereas he in all probability gained’t train it except one thing goes fallacious together with his rehab, Cleveland nonetheless could possibly be on the hook to pay him $30 million over the following two seasons.) The Guardians perpetually flip their roster over to maintain payroll down. In recent times, they traded Francisco Lindor earlier than he hit free company, shipped Josh Bell out of city to chop prices mere months after signing him in 2023, and now have traded Giménez.
Whenever you’re working with a finances of round $100 million, paying a mean annual worth of $20 million for a defensive wizard doesn’t work out fairly as properly. In Toronto, Giménez shall be a chunk of the puzzle. In Cleveland, he’d should be greater than that in the long term for the workforce’s technique to pan out. The plan isn’t onerous to suss out. Heck, Giménez himself got here to Cleveland as a part of the return for Lindor. That is simply how the Guardians do issues; they purchase and develop good younger gamers, then try to both signal them to early-career contract extensions, commerce them for brand new younger gamers, or each.
Horwitz, who turned 27 final month, will present a spark for the Pirates, and fairly frankly, he would have for the Guardians, too. He’s nominally a utility infielder, and he performed 300 innings of second base within the majors this previous 12 months, however our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen describes him as “heavy-footed,” and I feel his future is both at first base or in left subject. He’s undersized and on the slower aspect, however put merely, he can hit. He pairs a eager batting eye with glorious bat-to-ball expertise; he hardly ever chases, hardly ever whiffs, and hits a ton of line drives.
Why did the Guardians transfer him, then? Nicely, consistent with seemingly each Guardians prospect, his energy is an open query; he’s towards the underside of the majors in bat velocity and feels to me like a 10- to 15- dwelling run man on common. That works simply tremendous given the remainder of his skillset, although. He’ll in all probability publish OBPs within the higher .300s and document a raft of doubles over the following handful of seasons. Steamer thinks he’ll be 20% above common offensively subsequent 12 months, proper in keeping with his temporary main league profession to this point. The issue is that he didn’t have a spot to play for the Guardians, who already boast Josh Naylor and Kyle Manzardo as lefty first basemen.
As an alternative, they turned Horowitz into three pitchers, together with two latest draftees and a former high 100 prospect with some attention-grabbing traits and loads of danger. It’s a quintessentially Clevelandian transfer: Commerce your star for a multi-prospect return, then commerce one in all these prospects for one more multi-prospect return, at all times specializing in depth over high-end potential.
Mitchell is a comparatively unknown amount, so I sourced some notes immediately from Longenhagen, who put a 35+ FV on the younger outfielder. Right here’s what Eric needed to say:
Mitchell is a comparatively small nook outfield prospect who hit for superlative contact in faculty and through a short post-draft run at Low-A Dunedin. Mitchell’s faculty profession started at Western Illinois (they’re the Leathernecks) the place he hit a mixed .348 in two seasons and led the workforce in each offensive class as a sophomore. Mitchell transferred to Indiana for his draft season and performed proper subject all 12 months, amassing a .335/.458/.512 line regardless of lacking time on the very begin of the season with a damaged hand. Toronto drafted Mitchell within the fourth spherical, signed him for rather less than $500,000, after which he went out and hit .289/.350/.467 at Dunedin over the last month of the minor league season.
Mitchell is a small-framed 5-foot-10 however takes a wholesome rip for a man his measurement. His athleticism is clear within the verve of his finest swings, however he generates it with out elaborate motion. His swing is easy and compact, and produces all-fields line drive spray. He made in-zone contact at a 90% charge at each IU and Dunedin, although his chase charge took a leap in professional ball (one thing to look at going ahead). Mitchell’s power-indicating metrics, like his onerous hit charge and peak exit velocities, are comfortably under common however should be seen together with his preseason damaged hand in thoughts. Although they have been roughly the identical in professional ball, at the same time as Mitchell obtained additional and additional away from his damage, he ought to be monitored for an uptick on this space in 2025. The Blue Jays gave Mitchell some reps in heart subject after the draft and his really feel for the place isn’t nice. He performed solely proper subject at Indiana and doesn’t at all times look nice in proper, both (although Mitchell throws properly). Barring a significant uptick in his energy, Mitchell’s profile is much like that of present Guardians outfielder Will Brennan: a great contact-hitting nook man with considerably much less energy than is typical for an on a regular basis man. Mitchell could possibly be an identical platoon sort participant.
That’s it for the foremost components of the deal, however Sandlin is a pleasant add-on for the Jays, whose bullpen was abysmal final 12 months – actually the worst in baseball, 2.5 wins under alternative degree. Sandlin is hardly a aid ace, however he’s racked up a stable ERA and acceptable FIP over 200 main league innings, with loads of strikeouts and walks due to an arsenal heavy on sliders and splitters.
In Cleveland, Sandlin was a low-leverage possibility, however the distinction between the 2 bullpens is big. In Toronto, he’ll match into the broad center of the group, behind the late-inning arms however forward of fellows like Ryan Burr, Brendon Little, and Tommy Nance. The Jays will probably make a number of extra additions to their aid corps this winter (they’ve already introduced again righty Yimi García), however Sandlin is a pleasant bulk possibility. In case you signal 4 or 5 guys like him, one or two of them will in all probability pan out. As a bonus, he has a number of minor league choices remaining, which provides the Jays extra roster flexibility whereas they kind out their finest bullpen configuration.
If I have been the Jays, I’d make this commerce each time. This 12 months is make or break for them, a final probability to make the Massive League Sons era repay earlier than one or each of them depart in free company. They want wins this 12 months, and Giménez is a greater wager to supply them than anybody they traded. He’s additionally an excellent fallback possibility if Bichette leaves city; he’d look proper at dwelling taking part in shortstop. Heck, one of the best defensive alignment for the workforce, if it didn’t mess with clubhouse chemistry or what not, would have already got Giménez at brief, with Bichette sliding to 3rd or (extra probably in my eyes) second.
Put one other method, the Blue Jays’ greatest problem on the offensive aspect of the ball lately has been arising with dependable on a regular basis gamers. They’ve been in a perpetual scramble to seek out infield depth since Marcus Semien left for Texas. The fixed shuffle and churn has, at occasions, held again an in any other case potent lineup. Even when Guerrero turned the clock again to 2021 this 12 months, there simply wasn’t sufficient assist round him. I’m not saying Toronto can relaxation on its laurels, however that is one nice leap in the precise path, and it’s an excellent leap that matches snugly into its team-building philosophy.
For Cleveland, I like this commerce much less. It feels to me like a call made on a spreadsheet: Giménez was making sufficient cash that the Guardians opted to commerce him as quickly as they have been supplied some minimal perceived worth of prospects in return. That prospect worth wasn’t even notably excessive: two 40 FVs, a 35+ FV, and a fifth starter/lengthy reliever sort. My favourite a part of this return is that not one of the prospects are Rule 5 eligible till 2026, however that’s damning with faint reward. I get that these guys match their system, however what number of occasions are you able to commerce 1 / 4 for 5 nickels earlier than getting irritated by how tough it’s to handle all of the change you’re carrying round?
I get the concept. Greater than maybe every other profitable workforce, the Guardians have a kind. They appear for lots of the identical basic archetypes of gamers whether or not they’re drafting or buying and selling; they prioritize contact and plate self-discipline over energy and place big emphasis on age. They search for amount over high quality if they will have solely one of many two. That redundant acquisition strategy makes them resilient when some fraction of their younger gamers inevitably don’t work out.
That’s how the Guardians have operated for fairly some time. Ramírez is a part of this technique, solely he became an elite energy hitter and frequent MVP candidate regardless of missing prototypical uncooked energy. In case you’re seeking to compete for playoff spots within the AL Central yearly regardless of a shoestring finances, it’s onerous to argue with this technique. But it surely completely limits their ceiling. In case you’re at all times buying and selling with the long run in thoughts, how are you going to max out the current?
That’s a philosophical quibble, not a methodological one. Even when I disagree with the massive image, I recognize the best way the Guardians typically handle to seek out attention-grabbing returns regardless of behaving in ways in which I, and absolutely each entrance workplace in baseball, can predict upfront. I liked their deal for Manzardo, for instance, and with out dipping too far into the previous, Emmanuel Clase’s ridiculous Rangers debut caught my eye and theirs on the identical time. They may suppose too small for my tastes, however they have an inclination to do it very well.
This deal doesn’t hit that bar for me, although. It’s not like Giménez is ruinously costly this 12 months. He’s making $10 million in 2025, a wage even the budget-conscious Guardians might abdomen for a 12 months. His annual payouts don’t get actually punitive for a small-market workforce till 2027, and common annual worth isn’t notably essential to groups that by no means sniff the aggressive stability tax line. Furthermore, the AL Central is extra aggressive than it’s been in years, and Ramírez gained’t be excellent perpetually. It might be one factor if the Blue Jays had bowled them over with a suggestion, or if the Pirates have been weirdly prepared to again up a truck for Horowitz however forgot to name the Blue Jays. That’s not what’s happening right here. That is nearer to a gutterball than a strike. If you wish to hold working just like the Guardians do, that you must win trades, not break even. I feel this will likely find yourself within the loss column, even.
Possibly they have been apprehensive that one other down 12 months would tank Giménez’s worth to the purpose that his contract can be underwater, however that appears like a distant chance to me. Possibly they actually imagine Angel Martínez (alternative degree in 2024) or Gabriel Arias (barely under alternative degree) can man second, although their outcomes don’t precisely recommend it. I simply don’t perceive why it needed to be completed proper this immediate. Would this commerce, or one with a comparable return, vanish in a month? I doubt it.
You’ll be able to lose a commerce and nonetheless run a great group. You’ll be able to win a commerce and nonetheless miss the playoffs. It might hardly be a shock to see the Guardians in October, or to see the Jays miss the playoffs once more. However I’d make this deal 100 occasions out of 100 if I have been the Blue Jays. I’d make extra offers too; this 12 months is exceptionally essential for them. Buying Giménez is an amazing begin, notably because it leaves the workforce with loads of positional flexibility to slot in an enormous bat elsewhere. I feel we would look again at this commerce as a turning level for the Jays in a couple of years.