Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 12/2/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a ton of baseball-y stuff to speak about at present, although I’m hoping that modifications in every week’s time or so when winter conferences warmth up

Ben Clemens: however let’s simply get proper into it and possibly get some seize bag matters in too

Doug: Do you assume the Snell signing could make Sasaki much less more likely to go to Dodgers given they’ve sufficient rotation depth/expertise to simply ship him down if he struggles?

Ben Clemens: Eh… on the margin, sure. However ‘oh the Dodgers undoubtedly have sufficient beginning pitching’ has by no means been a superb wager

Ben Clemens: I anticipate them to go six man rotation, I anticipate them to take care of a ton of accidents as a result of they at all times do, there will likely be innings for him even when he struggles

Bob Loblaw, Esq.: Ideas on the Boyd signing? Are the Cubs trying to flip him?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume that signing somebody hoping to flip them makes a ton of sense, notably for a group just like the Cubs with playoff aspirations. I do assume that they’re making an attempt to get out in entrance of the market in a lot teh identical approach the Mets did with Montas

Ben Clemens: They want innings, they usually most likely didn’t wish to be looking for them in January or February

Ben Clemens: That stated, the value tag is just not nothing for a man who was out there totally free final yr. I feel I’d have regarded elsewhere, personally, although I’m not wildly assured in that view

jaygray007: It looks as if pitching is a minimum of reasonably costlier than we thought it was going to be.   Do you anticipate this which means that any kind of mlb-ready cost-controlled pitching might carry again extra in trades than possibly we’re used to?

Ben Clemens: One factor that is still to be seen is whether or not it’s pitching or all free brokers

Ben Clemens: The primary few offers have been coming in above my estimates and the gang as nicely

Ben Clemens: It’s fascinating, I spent a very long time making an attempt to trim my estimates right down to even decrease than they ended up. I’ve some forcing features within the background that attempt to restrict the general quantity of spending per win, in order that I don’t get too caught up in comps and market analysis and find yourself with a projection that’s approach off of what you’d anticipate from prior years

Ben Clemens: and that perform saved telling me to chop estimates based mostly on what we noticed up to now few years. I ended up largely ignoring it and coming in fairly far above what it could counsel. Guess I ought to have ignored it much more

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume it’ll have an effect on the commerce market all that a lot as a result of pitchers had been already very precious in commerce, I feel that’ll simply proceed

Idiotic Failson: I’m positive you’ve seen the ‘Yanks are topping out at $550mm for Soto and he already has a number of $600mm presents in hand’ report by now. Do you purchase it, and can the Yankees remorse (lol) letting Soto go to the Purple Sox (for instance) for $600mm?

Ben Clemens: I don’t purchase it

Ben Clemens: Like I’m positive somebody stated that to a reporter, or one thing comparable

Ben Clemens: however I doubt it’s set in stone and even the present state of affairs on the bottom

Ben Clemens: like possibly they supplied 10/550? however this appears like a deal they aren’t going to lose for cash’s sake

Andre Thee Large: Chaim Bloom’s 2021-23 drafts had been superb high-ceiling expertise grabs adopted by robust improvement. He received’t be there when the Purple Sox ascend, however do you assume the success they’ll doubtless have will quickly get him one other job on the high of an org? Gracias.

Ben Clemens: I do! Possibly, I dunno, the Cardinals? 🙂

Joe: 2025 Cardinals – one final wholehearted attempt for Mozeliak, or a yr for Bloom to begin enacting a retool?   Gamers smart pondering largely if Arenado and Sonny Grey stick with the Membership.

Ben Clemens: I’m leaning extra in the direction of the retool. You don’t usher in Chaim Bloom to stay with the identical previous plan of buying and selling for main league producers and whatnot

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure what meaning for Arenado, it positive appears like he needs out nevertheless it appears like a tough commerce. Grey, then again: I feel he’ll be gone in the event that they’re retooling as a result of he’s on a brief deal at an affordable worth

Ben Clemens: that’s the sort of commerce bundle that each group is searching for

Thanks for the chat!: Do all (most) gamers have brokers? Even the fellows making minimal, Quad A, and so on.?

Appa Yip Yip: Is it tougher to pitch Aaron Choose up as a result of with a purpose to get the ball excessive sufficient it’s a must to throw what is generally a waste pitch and that’s simply bizarre to do on function?

Ben Clemens: Similar to it’s simpler to pitch Altuve up

Ben Clemens: then again, it’s lots simpler to assault Choose low for mainly the identical motive

Ben Clemens: and he will get too many strikes referred to as on him low within the zone as a result of umpires have the identical difficulty

Def not Chris Getz: Im taking part in a sport of rooster with groups on Garrett Crochet. Am I good for ready for the large SP and Soto to go off the board earlier than I deal my ace or am I simply limiting my choices if the Dodgers/Purple Sox/Orioles/and so on signal pitchers in free company as a substitute?

Ben Clemens: I’m usually a fan of setting a worth and ready to both have it hit or for somebody to get determined earlier than altering techniques

Ben Clemens: there isn’t sufficient pitching to go round, notably for groups who aren’t dropping 150 million on a free agent, so I feel the market will stay strong irrespective of the place the highest guys signal

Bencle Mens: Let me begin by saying I are not looking for a wage cap. BUT is there a option to encourage non-Dodger groups to get inventive with their contract presents as nicely? Is it solely the Dodgers’ need to flout the luxurious tax that conjures up them?

Ben Clemens: The Nationals have been doing this for greater than a decade

Ben Clemens: the A’s supplied Marcus Semien essentially the most insulting contract of all time however in a goofily structured approach

Ben Clemens: one yr, $10 million, however paid in 10 $1 million installments over 10 years

Ben Clemens: the Dodgers don’t have a monopoly on bizarre, deferred-y offers. however truthfully, the deferred isn’t serving to them out THAT a lot, it’s the truth that they’re keen to spend to win

Ben Clemens: like they’re nonetheless setting apart $46 million a yr for Ohtani

drhotdog: do you assume the Boyd and Montas signings make the Kikuchi deal look any higher?

Ben Clemens: I feel that each pitching deal has comein above ‘consensus’ and it’s fully plossible that almost all offers do, now that the financial image feels rather less unsettled than a yr in the past

2030s: Will the Dodgers be restricted by all of the deferred cash they’ll be paying subsequent decade? Or will the financial realities of baseball enable them to mainly shrug it off?

Ben Clemens: I don’t, due to the way in which the escrow works

Ben Clemens: they don’t get to only not take into consideration the cash till the longer term, they’re required to set an NPV’ed quantity apart within the yr it’s earned

Ben Clemens: in order that they’re setting apart a bunch of cash proper now. I’m not 100% positive what investments are allowed with that cash, however they must pony it up now, which implies they’re not going to all of the sudden must pay out $100 million out of nowhere in 2030 or no matter

Kevin: it appears extremely more likely to me that on account of declining media income presents to mid-range free brokers are going to be fewer and smaller than gamers and brokers have come to anticipate. What’s your view?

Ben Clemens: I assumed that earlier than the offeseason

Ben Clemens: that definitely was the case within the 2024 offseason

Ben Clemens: I suppose we’ll see. however Frankie Montas and Matt Boyd really feel very mid-range to me, they usually each bought good offers

David: Shouldn’t the value start to drop for beginning pitching? They’re throwing fewer innings and turning it over sooner to the bullpen.

Ben Clemens: The value per WAR hasn’t modified a lot, so I suppose what you’re saying is already taking place

Ben Clemens: nevertheless it’s difficult, as a result of wage is as a lot about shortage as worth, and good beginning pitching is scarce as of late

David: Wouldn’t the Yankees be higher off letting Soto stroll and filling roster holes with different free brokers so Choose can transfer over to a nook?

Ben Clemens: what free brokers

Ben Clemens: like, they’re gonna go signal Alex Bregman and Gleyber Torres?

Ben Clemens: I feel that will most likely value extra per yr than Soto will

Ben Clemens: do you truly assume that offense could be higher than one with Soto and a prospect? I positive don’t

Ben Clemens: why can’t Choose transfer to a nook even with Soto on the town anyway?

Ben Clemens: I’d be making an attempt Dominguez out in middle for positive

Joe: Which FanGraphs festive gentle colors are you utilizing?

Ben Clemens: I’m liking the basic ones

Ben Clemens: the A’s lights look kinda cool, however I similar to common christmas colours

Tacoby Bellsbury: There have been rumblings concerning the Phillies making an attempt to get out from underneath the Nick Castellanos contract. Is there a damaged-goods commerce that will line up for the Phillies and another associate to maneuver him out of city?

Adam: How do you see the Phillies “shaking up” their roster? I’ve heard Bohm tossed round as a commerce piece, however apart from him who might you see them transferring?

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical that the Phillies could make a Castellanos commerce work, as a result of most groups are valuing him at roughly 0

Ben Clemens: like, league common hitter with utterly unplayable protection

Ben Clemens: so both they’re going to eat a lot of the cash, at which level why are we doing this commerce within the first place, or they’re going to ship out a prospect with him, and that feels prefer it wouldn’t occur given the way in which Philly has operated in recent times

Ben Clemens: Bohm is sensible to me as a commerce piece in the event that they’re intent on shaking issues up, however they may additionally simply run issues again. It was a reasonably good group in 2024, you understand?

Bencle Mens: Can an Arenado to the Phillies commerce work?

Ben Clemens: I don’ assume the Cardinals could be serious about Bohm, as a result of the entire level of transferring on from Arenado could be to take a step again for the subsequent few years. Mayyyyybe you can get the Castellanos contract out the door, plus a prospect or two, for Arenado, however that will simply be window dressing (i.e. you may select between the Cardinals protecting $30 million of Arenado’s deal and buying and selling them Castellanos and the $40 million he’s owed)

Ben Clemens: So I’d say it’s not unattainable however depends upon discovering worth for Bohm elsewhere

Hunter: I’ve heard commerce rumors for the Tigers (Arenado, Bohm), however is there any life like commerce that the Tigers might make that will make extra sense than simply signing Bregman or Christian Walker in order that they don’t must bat Matt Vierling third anymore?

Ben Clemens: yeah I like Walker there fairly a bit

Ben Clemens: Not so into Bregman, to be trustworthy, I really feel like his swing and Comerica wouldn’t be buddies

Buster: I wish to do my finest by the Giants, however I don’t have the Dodgers cash and that i don’t have their mind belief. Any approach I can dislodge them from first within the subsequent years?

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical

Ben Clemens: I hope I’m improper, SF is extra enjoyable when the Giants are good

Ben Clemens: we haven’t actually seen a lot of the Posey regime but, I’ll withhold judgment for a yr or so till we see what their MO is, however the Giants have been fairly uninspired in recent times after whiffing on a couple of large free brokers, and it feels robust to repair that rapidly

New UK fan: How do the market dynamics fluctuate between pitching (~everybody can use one other pitcher, however there are lots of out there) vs particular positions (possibly just a few groups want a catching improve however there are only a few choices out there)

Ben Clemens: oh, good query. I feel it makes for a first-one-in-wins mentality within the place participant case, the place there are significant differencdes in what somebody will give you based mostly on whenever you signal and who’s nonetheless trying. Pitcher salaries are much more static/fungible, as a result of if the Mets don’t signal you the Yankees would possibly, or whatnot

Ben Clemens: that places extra strain on the brokers of the place gamers whose spots aren’t assured however are doubtlessly mnore precious. Whereas being an agent for a starter might be lots about calling each group and exhibiting that your man is wholesome/working arduous

Hungry man: What’s one of the best vacation dish?

Ben Clemens: I truly don’t assume that is all that shut

Ben Clemens: I like loads of vacation dishes, however I crave stuffing

Ben Clemens: we made some this yr and I devoured it in document time

Ben Clemens: it’s fairly enjoyable to make, additionally

Bencle Mens: Over/underneath Brewers’ NL Central division wins within the subsequent 3 years: 2.5?

Ben Clemens: straightforward underneath for me

Ben Clemens: not as a result of I feel they’re in a nasty spot, however b/c 2.5 out of three is simply too excessive

Ben Clemens: at 2 I’m torn, I feel I’d most likely nonetheless take the underneath however I’d really feel dangerous about it

Kip: Is ATL sort of screwed? They’ve a minimum of three holes to fill (LF/SP/RP) and possibly extra should you don’t assume Ozzie will bounce again (second basemen age horribly) or if Arcia doesn’t enhance. They’ve cash to spend nevertheless it’s not an enormous quantity in the event that they wish to keep away from penalties (round $30 million). Their farm system isn’t notably deep and plenty of of their finest prospects undertaking to be again finish starters or aid pitchers.

Ben Clemens: the Braves had a really ridiculous variety of accidents final yr, together with the reigning MVP and Cy Younger favourite, to not point out a number of different All Stars. BP’s harm tracker has them down for 13 lacking WAR final yr, vs. a league common of round 5

Ben Clemens: so will they be pretty much as good as they had been in 2023? most likely not

Ben Clemens: however will we undertaking them as one of the best group within the NLE once more? virtually definitely

Ben Clemens: Arcia is dangerous for a primary division shortstop, and Albies is likely to be extra good than elite now (I’ve truly had him in that vary for years, witness his slide down the commerce worth sequence)

Ben Clemens: however they only have a ton of excellent gamers nonetheless. I’d anticipate extra in ’25 out of Riley and Harris, I actually like Schwellenbach and I feel AJSS has some juice

Idiotic Failson: I agreed with you a large number till you thought that stuffing was higher than pecan pie. What a brutal take.

Ben Clemens: pecan pie is my favourite pie

Ben Clemens: I’m only a savory over candy sort of individual

drhotdog: angels want both a 3B or a 2B. any probability they will poach HSK from san diego?

Ben Clemens: yeah, this feels very cheap to me

Ben Clemens: I feel that Kim’s market goes to go one among two methods

Ben Clemens: one is that he picks a group the place he’s snug to signal a pillow contract. Possibly the Giants? One thing west coast most likely

Ben Clemens: Angels aren’t out of the query right here both

Ben Clemens: or: somebody actually needs him and they also provide him a pleasant five-year deal

Ben Clemens: and he simply says eh, pillow contracts are overrated, let’s simply safe the bag now

Ben Clemens: that second choice, I feel a group doing that will roughly assure signing him, whereas if he’s signing 2/40 with an choose out after the primary yr, a ton of groups would provide him that

Ben Clemens: so if you wish to assure Kim’s providers, you provide him a long-term deal. If you happen to’re snug taking a danger that he’ll signal somehwere else based mostly on match, enter the pillow contract sweepstakes

John: “Any pie is an efficient pie”

Ben Clemens: oh man, has anybody had the frozen pies from Ace {Hardware}?

Ben Clemens: I didn’t know this was a factor after which I picked one up for this Thanksgiving as a result of I used to be doing an Ace run (snow shovel, some random wrench) and remembered that they’ve a freezer close to the checkout

Ben Clemens: I discovered from my neighbor that it is a frequent factor at Ace areas, and the pie was completely superb

Ben Clemens: like, possibly one of the best apple pie I’ve ever had

Lord Thunder: If Eric isn’t round and someone asks you what Triple-A catcher, Agustin Ramirez or Drake Baldwin, you like. What do you say?

Ben Clemens: I’d most likely make a Drake pun first

Ben Clemens: however I want Baldwin, I’m just a little extra keen to consider his batting line given the peripherals and whereas I don’t have a ton of visibility into minor league catcher protection, they appear comparable there

Henry D.: Some stories at present that the NYM are serious about Walker Buehler. I like playing on him in a vacuum, however are they actually going to hit on WB and Montas in the identical season the way in which they did with Sevi and Manaea? Looks as if an excessive amount of danger.

Ben Clemens: I’d truly argue that it’s a danger mitigation technique

Ben Clemens: positive, typically you may hit on each signing and issues work out nice, however usually talking, signing extra lottery tickets will increase the probabilities of hitting on a minimum of one

Ben Clemens: there’s obivously some contract quantity the place it switches to being draw back danger since you’re paying him as if he’s going to be elite

Ben Clemens: however that’s harder to guage, and I don’t assume Buehler is gonna get that quantity

Caught on holidays man: Have you ever ever given a present that you simply’re nonetheless pleased with?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna point out a present my spouse gave first, as a result of it was simply that superior: for her mother’s seventieth, she bought 70 individuals to write down messages and put all of them in a e-book collectively

Ben Clemens: that was an awesome one, I assumed

Ben Clemens: not counting that: I bought my spouse a set of knives in 2015 that we nonetheless love at present, they usually’ve been extremely helpful the entire time, so I’ll say that

Plan B: If the Yankees lose out on Soto, how a lot would Bellinger assist them?

Ben Clemens: not a lot, imo

Ben Clemens: I’ll say, I’m decrease on Bellinger than consensus

Ben Clemens: he was in my high 50 provisionally when it appeared like he would possibly choose out and I bought loads of feedback that I had him too low

Ben Clemens: I feel that loads of individuals consider he’s a 20% above common bat who can play a superb middle area, whereas I feel he’s a median bat and common outfield defender

Cohen: So if he DOESN’T get Soto after he’s spent a number of years speaking up his spending, is that thought of an actual ding? (Clearly not on his general tenure)

Ben Clemens: If it’s due to an absence of a severe provide, sure

Ben Clemens: if it’s as a result of he and the Yankees each provide 13/700 and Soto needs to hang around together with his buddy Aaron, nicely, I feel it depends upon how arduous the Mets pitched him

Ben Clemens: however nothing about this pursuit, and his pursuit of free brokers usually, has made me assume that Cohen is unserious about getting one of the best gamers

Visitor: RE: Sasaki to the Dodgers
I nonetheless assume they’ve a shot, nevertheless it’s unquestionably tougher to promote him on going there when, in an ideal world, he would appear to be the odd man out within the playoff rotation. I’d think about he wouldn’t be in over Snell, Glasnow, Yamamoto, or Ohtani. In order that brings me to my level, do you consider the Snell signing means they nonetheless very a lot consider they’ll get him? Or they didn’t belive they had been going to get him within the first place?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, that’s honest. I feel it’s extra the second, that they weren’t positive if they’d get him – how might they be? They usually additionally weren’t positive if he’d be an affect arm in 2025. in order that they’re simply making an attempt to win a bunch now, as a result of that appears good

Ben Clemens: take the deal in entrance of you and take care of tomorrow tomorrow, that kidn of factor

Ben Clemens: hoenstly I feel the Dodgers are so well-run that it’s virtually un-fun

Ben Clemens: they make the selections I’d make on a strategic entrance loads of the time, and after they do one thing I wouldn’t have performed, I steadily discover that I preferred their selection after the very fact

Choose and Soto: If Soto finally ends up staying partially as a result of he likes taking part in with that large man, on high of Choose simply casually throwing up a second 11fWAR season, how not horrible is that Choose contract?

Ben Clemens: yeah the Choose deal is trying like fairly a cut price up to now, amazingly sufficient

Ben Clemens: he’s already cranked out 16 WAR since signing it, captured an MVP, dragged the group to an ALE win

Bencle Mens: How dangerous are the Yankees’ vibes going to be when Soto indicators with the Mets or Purple Sox?

Kave Dingman: Dodgers and escrow – I had not heard about this earlier than. I do know that the Dodgers get hit with an-NPV like hit to their luxurious cap quantity. For Ohtani, is the escrow the identical as that roughly $46 million cap hit?

Ben Clemens: yeah roughly. Right here’s a pleasant little Gemini abstract, shout out to Google

Ben Clemens:

• hen to put aside: Groups should begin allocating the deferred cash by the second July 1 after the season it was owed. For instance, if a participant is deferring $68 million in 2024, the group should totally fund the current worth of that cash by July 2026. 
• Easy methods to put aside: Groups can allocate the cash in money, shares, or “unencumbered belongings”. The league and union also can agree on another kind. 
• Who holds the cash: The cash is held on behalf of the participant and can’t be accessed. 
• Curiosity: The group can earn curiosity on the cash, which they will spend.

John: With the caveat that no person actually is aware of but, are you able to say  which is extra suspect in pitcher accidents: elevated velocity or emphasis on spin charges?

Ben Clemens: i feel it’s sort of a hybrid of those – it’s the speed on the flexible pitches

Ben Clemens: 91 mph sliders are arduous on the arm on a number of fronts

angels: You assume the angels will go after any extra starters? Primarily based on Perry’s feedback it seems like Anderson or Detmers will likely be dealt they usually’ll usher in one other arm

Ben Clemens: I do – possibly somebody within the Pivetta/Sevy tier?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume Anderson has a lot of a commerce market. not that his contract is underwater, simply that he’s extra of a ‘commerce this man for a prospect on the deadline when a group has an harm downside’ choice as a substitute of a ‘swap him for quick main league assist in January’ choice

Ben Clemens: Detmers might get them one thing useful immediately, so in the event that they wish to transfer him, they’d discover takers

Appa Yip Yip: Or possibly it’s as a result of Soto needs to spend time together with his even higher buddy Vlad did u consider that Ben??

Ben Clemens: residing in Toronto does sound fairly n ice

Ben Clemens: I’d undoubtedly have an interest. I’d even settle for lower than Soto

Maddie: Is Thairo Estrada simply performed? Feels just like the Giants gave up on him early.

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure he’s performed, however: I’ve been a vendor for years, I simply don’t fairly see how he can ship above common worth with out one thing important altering

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume his protection is pretty much as good because it was graded in 2023, his offense is unquestionably a minimum of just a little under common, I’ve him as a second division common or good utility man

Ben Clemens: possibly the Giants gave up on that just a little early however I don’t assume he’ll receives a commission greater than his arb award would have been, and he definitely didn’t really feel like a long run resolution to me, so I see why they moved on

Eric: Do you purchase the Boras narrative that Chicago winds suppressed Bellinger final yr and he could be a purchase low if he was dealt someplace?

Ben Clemens: one one that most likely agrees with me: Cody Bellinger, who selected to stay on the Cubs as a substitute of testing free company

Badeball: Is plossible a mixture of potential and believable? In that case, I prefer it

Ben Clemens: it wasn’t imagined to be however now I’m with you

Idiotic Failson: Is there a negotiating universe the place Cohen simply tells Boras ‘we’ll give Soto $600mm or match regardless of the highest provide is’? It appears like that’s an Uncle Steve sort of transfer.

Ben Clemens: I feel that’s pretty doubtless, in reality

Ben Clemens: that’s how the Ohtani and Choose negotiations apparently went down; the Giants supplied these guys the precise offers they obtained elsewhere

Henry Dodger: There’s a story in NYC that claims that Luisangel Acuna was “bored” within the minors and that’s why he didn’t carry out higher. I discover it very tough to consider. You?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t purchase it

Ben Clemens: or nicely, if that’s the case, we’ve got a totally totally different downside

Ben Clemens: Occam’s razor right here, for me, although

Alf: You’re GM Ben Clemens of the Yankees/Purple Sox/Dodgers/Blue Jays/ different group severe about Soto. At what monetary level do you simply say it’s an excessive amount of cash and let him go some other place?

Ben Clemens: In all probability relies upon extra on possession, to be trustworthy, and the way these groups assemble budgets

Ben Clemens: I feel that round 13/700 I’d be telling my proprietor that this deal doesn’t make monetary sense, however I determine if I’m a GM I’m going to be steadily asking the proprietor to spend extra and compete extra steadily, so this would appear like a superb time to push that message

Wyatt: Am I loopy to have Wyatt Langford as a high ten place participant in fantasy subsequent yr?

Ben Clemens: Prime ten appears just a little aggressive

Ben Clemens: however larger than he completed this yr by a superb bit, for positive

Lord Thunder: Out of the Jays’ return for Kikuchi — Wagner, Loperfido, and Bloss — who will produce essentially the most worth within the close to future … and past?

Ben Clemens: at this level I suppose Wagner is trying fairly good. However gimme Bloss, I talked myself into him when he began hopping ranges in Houston final yr

Ben Clemens: the Wagner throw-in was an awesome transfer by Toronto

Matt: Concerning “we’ll match regardless of the highest provide is”, do groups truly know what the very best presents are? Looks as if they’re all left in the dead of night to varied levels and solely Soto’s group is aware of. I suppose Soto’s group might let you know what their highest provide is, however would you consider them? Or are FA negotiations pretty clear?

Ben Clemens: In truth, I’m unsure

Ben Clemens: My guess is that Boras and most brokers are pretty truthful about this, although

Ben Clemens: It’s a repeated sport, and should you get caught mendacity as soon as, the prices in future rounds of negotiation are huoge

Ben Clemens: profit-maximizing habits in a one-round negotiation is likely to be to lie, however belief feels necessary to Boras’s skill to do his job nicely

SPArn: What do you imply that Nick Castellanos isn’t a superb defender?! His fielding percentages are incredible!

Ben Clemens: I’ve truly by no means dedicated an error in skilled baseball

Ben Clemens: for what it’s value

Dan: I recall a dialogue of a aid pitcher who was out of choices and this was placed on waivers to let the group name up a brisker arm. The participant was claimed by a second group who pitcher him for a couple of weeks earlier than they did the identical factor and a 3rd group claimed him. It was talked about the participant was accruing service time however does a participant at this degree ever find yourself signing a free agent deal or do they have a tendency to retire/signal a minor league do as soon as they’re not eligible for this type of roster shuffling?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, the fellows on this state of affairs aren’t reaping free company wealth

Ben Clemens: that stated, the service time issues for issues like pensions and arbitration

Ben Clemens: additionally, they’re getting paid a serious league wage whereas they accrue service time, which isn’t any joke

Ben Clemens: the Triple-A minimal this yr was 35,800. MLB minimal was 740k

Wyatt: What sort of cash modifications palms of Arenado is traded? Does the Rockies cash comply with him?

Ben Clemens: oh hey I simply seen that Arenado had 50 million deferred in his deal

Ben Clemens: look, everyone seems to be the Dodgers now

Ben Clemens: the Rockies cash would comply with him, although. the Rockies are paying $4 million of his wage annually, they usually’d simply proceed to do this

Kave Dingman: Residing in Toronto from April 1st through October thirty first looks as if a perfect plan. And spend the winter someplace a lot hotter.

Ben Clemens: I’m not a winter individual, and I feel it’s a superb wager that Juan Soto isn’t both

Ben Clemens: Miami offseason house? straightforward

joe: Ought to MLB change the way in which the offseason works? decide up steam sooner? Feels just like the draft lottery ought to have occurred already.

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s arrange moderately nicely, however I do assume there must be a transaction freeze for many of November in order that issues actually begin cooking across the winter conferences

Oneear: Yainer Diaz or Patrick Bailey?

Ben Clemens: for fantasy? Diaz. For actual life? Bailey

Ben Clemens: I’m only a large sucker for catcher protection, and Bailey is one of the best there’s there

Henry Dodger: Did the LAD make sufficient cash on promoting and advertising offers with Japanese companies that they’re basically not paying Ohtani’s ~$45M out of the same old funds?

Michael G: If Soto indicators with the Purple Sox, Yankees signal Walker & Bregman, Jays signal Santander & Manaea. What’s your rating of the AL East groups?

Ben Clemens: I feel I’d go Yankees/Sox/Jays, however with error bars greater than the variations between groups

Drew: Are there sufficient upgrades on the commerce and free agent markets to make the Nationals a contender in 2025?

Ben Clemens: I imply, positive

Ben Clemens: give them Soto, Bregman, Burnes, possibly Teo and two different starters, bam

Ben Clemens: realistically no, although?

Visitor: do u assume renting just about simply at all times smarter than homeownership rn

Ben Clemens: Context-dependent

Ben Clemens: in large cities, virtually definitely sure, although

Ben Clemens: rental yield is so low in SF, it could be fairly costly to personal my place as a substitute of renting it

Dan: Is Pecan Pie pronounced pecan or pecan?

Ben Clemens: I’m a ‘peh-con’ man

Ben Clemens: I feel it is a regional deal, although I’m not 100% positive

J: Besides you might be pressured out of your residence by lease will increase yearly in case your residence isn’t lease stabilized (supply: stay in NYC)

Ben Clemens: I imply, positive. however housing in NYC is pretty fungible, you may lease one other place. that stated, in my expertise an enormous quantity of NYC housing is lease managed, or a minimum of a number of of the locations I lived there have been, even in newer buildings

Ben Clemens: rental yields in NY are within the 2-3% vary from what I’ve seen, that’s wild

Visitor: I do know it’s largely simply noise, however has anybody performed analysis into participant success in even or odd years? Matt Olson’s yearly wRC+ graph seems to be just like the Mammoth Mountain emblem.

Ben Clemens: this seems like a job for Dan, however I haven’t seen any impact and doubt it’s actual

J: Housing is just not fungible when you have a household, man. You’ll be able to’t transfer your children yearly.

Ben Clemens: nicely positive, however rental will increase of say 10% a yr are usually not notably frequent both, and also you is likely to be paying double to have a mortgage as a substitute of lease for a similar place. Clearly there are a ton of various components, and a baseball author isn’t going to unravel the issue in his chat, however from a value effectiveness standpoint, I’ve been completely happy renting in excessive value of residing cities

Bob Loblaw, Esq.: Josh Allen for Shohei Ohtani who says no?

Ben Clemens: throwing a landing move to your self does really feel like an Ohtani-ish feat

Didace: Hire or purchase is a math downside. Albeit with loads of variables which can be both unknown or very unsure.

Henry Dodger: Will Soto’s contract be insured? Is it potential to insure a contract like that?

Ben Clemens: most likely for harm and never for anything

Badeball: How a lot would a group pay a man who might treatment any harm immediately? Is that value $20 million  a yr? Asking for a buddy

Ben Clemens: simply, proper?

Ben Clemens: the Dodgers would pay that for positive

Dan: If the group is depositing the current worth and they’re allowed to spend the curiosity then as soon as the longer term turns into the current they are going to be quick by the distinction between the unique current worth and the paper worth.

Ben Clemens: I don’t know the specifics of teh CBA, however I’d guess that it must be trued as much as current worth occasionally

Ben Clemens: and you can spend the distinction

Ben Clemens: that’s how I’d do it, a minimum of

Ben Clemens: alright, this was a enjoyable chat and it ran just a little longer than I anticipated

Ben Clemens: who knew everybody wnated to listen to my housing sizzling takes?

Ben Clemens: that stated, maintain your eyes peeled for one more article on classes I discovered in monetary markets and the way they apply to baseball

Ben Clemens: ETA tomorrow, I feel

Ben Clemens: and have a beautiful week, everybody

Tyguy: On the housing entrance: I purchased in 2021 at ~3% curiosity and would love to maneuver, however really feel golden handcuffed to my present low mortgage fee. Isn’t there some monetary instrument that will enable somebody to tackle my EV+ low curiosity mortgage and let me recoup a number of the prices of what could be the next lease / mortgage fee?

Ben Clemens: ooh bonus final one

Ben Clemens: some scandinavian nation has transferable mortgages

SPArn: Shoutout to Edwin Burton in that case

Ben Clemens: i took his class!

Ben Clemens: cya later, everybody