RosterResource Chat – 11/29/24

Jason Martinez: Welcome to our 2nd RosterResource Stay Chat! Thanks for becoming a member of us. Not so much has occurred since final week aside from the Snell/Kikuchi signings and principally unsurprising non-tenders. Nonetheless a number of enjoyable subjects to debate. Right here we go …

Matt: Bellinger opting in has put a little bit of a wrinkle into Jed’s offseason plans. Should you had been Hoyer, how would you method bettering the offense , whereas making an attempt to offer some room for a few of their top-100,guys to emerge?

Jon Becker: This definitely wasn’t best for Hoyer, who would definitely moderately have the Bellinger cash to spend elsewhere, to not point out the plate appearances. Enhancing the offense shall be robust exterior of simply hoping for inside enhancements — the plain lane for that may have been to commerce Hoerner, however his surgical procedure complicates issues — or buying and selling Bellinger himself (additionally tough!). A catcher with offensive upside (Sánchez, Higashioka, and so forth.) to pair with Amaya is the one place they will add a starter with out buying and selling another person.

NT: Have heard nothing concerning the Twins. The place do you suppose they should improve and the way do you suppose they do it? Any likelihood of a Correa commerce in your estimation?

Jason Martinez: I don’t suppose Correa shall be traded. Would take a number of creativity and both the Twins consuming a number of $ or taking over one other massive contract in return. And that’s robust to do. Would like to see it. I believe there are a number of others groups in the identical boat.

They’ve to determine a technique to construct a crew that’s aggressive whereas not relying on Correa/Buxton/Lewis. And something these guys can contribute is a bonus. Brooks Lee and among the different children stepping up shall be big. Similar with pitching. Plenty of children who can take the subsequent step.

Jon Becker: It’s undoubtedly going to be a quiet offseason for them, a lot in order that it wouldn’t in any respect shock me to see them rank thirtieth in FA spending. Inner enhancements + including on the margins (RH OF, a lefty reliever) will in all probability be about it for them.

TD: How do you suppose the Padres will method the low season, contemplating that they’re presently up in opposition to the posh tax?

Jon Becker: They don’t have a Juan Soto-level contract to maneuver to concurrently decrease payroll and infuse expertise; Arraez wouldn’t convey again all that a lot, Cronenworth and Bogaerts are near un-trade-able, and so forth. I believe they principally should decide to being a luxurious tax payor since we have already got them projected at $3M over (https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/padres) they usually desperately want a catcher and left fielder, at minimal.

Visitor: Has there been any dialogue about assuming much less optimistic PAs within the Depth Chart projections? If that’s the case, what’s the reasoning for this assumption?

Jason Martinez: I like discussing this matter however that is in all probability not the most effective place to offer the most effective reply. Higher for extra particular gamers. However I’ll say that they are often much less optimistic for beginning pitching prospects. That’s as a result of we solely undertaking 100% though it needs to be extra like 125% simply because we all know for certain there shall be accidents. We simply can’t assume who will get harm. For place gamers, I believe they are often too optimistic as a result of my definition of “injury-prone” could be totally different than others.

So I’d take a look at it the pitchers extra like a depth chart order. Who’s subsequent in line if one of many high 5 is out for the season? For place gamers, when ought to Royce Lewis be thought-about “injury-prone” and penciled in for 75-80% as a substitute of 85-90%? He was 25 years previous final season and had a number of freak accidents so I didn’t suppose he was “injury-prone” but. I used to be in all probability fallacious.

BuccoFan: Do you agree that the Pirates could be higher off spending $30M on one or two distinction makers, as a substitute on 6 or 7 guys that inevitably will end round alternative degree?

Jon Becker: Positively, sure. The pitching appears fairly good however they badly want an precise menace in the course of the lineup, not one other Grandal + Taylor + Tellez “let’s hope for enhancements” offseason. Bringing McCutchen again really feel like a given and together with that I’d look into FA like Walker, Santander, and O’Neill, if I used to be Ben Cherington.

MilledgeReport: The Cardinals chosen Tink Therefore’s contract from AA this week. Do you guys anticipate he makes his MLB debut this yr, or is he somebody who wants extra time increase innings within the minors?

Jason Martinez: He’s proficient sufficient to power his approach into the combo. However I doubt the Cardinals are relying on it. Solely 79.2 IP final season. Possibly he can attain 130 IP this season. If that’s the case, do they convey him up early till they should shut him down? Do they convey him alongside very slowly in case he may also help them within the 2nd half? Too many unknowns for the Cardinals to imagine both of these situations. I believe they only hope he continues to progress and never fear about when to name him up.

Jon Becker: I additionally don’t suppose “wants extra time increase innings” and “makes his MLB debut” should be mutually unique both. how the White Sox dealt with Crochet down the stretch, the Cardinals might name Therefore up when rosters broaden to get him on an every-fifth-day schedule, however restrict him to 3 innings apiece.

Visitor: Have the Dodgers utterly given up on Lux as a SS?

Jon Becker: It wouldn’t shock me if they offer him a shot there in Spring Coaching, however the throwing actually did look tough earlier than they flipped him and Betts on the very finish of Spring Coaching this previous season. Having the ability to platoon at brief with Rojas and having Betts play 2B, the place he’d higher, would make issues simpler for certain. Or they may simply signal Adames, in fact.

White Sox: Any specific low price free brokers that may be into some taking part in time? Crochet probably fetching two High 100s?

Jason Martinez: 2 High 100 prospects is what it might take to begin a dialog. Crimson Sox should be the favourite however I believe there are a number of different groups who could be keen.

Free Agent market is stuffed with these low-cost veterans … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker

However why would they need to play for the White Sox? Provided that it’s their finest likelihood at common taking part in time. I believe there’s room for 2 bats (OF/DH), 2 SP, and some RPs.  Possibly a David Peralta or Randal Grichuk. Possibly a Cal Quantrill or Griffin Canning.

Jon Becker: I’ll additionally throw Sócrates Brito in there, solely as a result of Jon Heyman reported this morning he’s getting MLB curiosity, and veterans getting back from the KBO is enjoyable!

Seattle_54percenters: What reasonable choices for Mariners at 3B, 2B, and 1B/DH? Possession prefers income to successful sadly:/

Jon Becker: I completely get why folks need to tie them to gamers like Alonso and Bregman, however Dipoto and possession have simply by no means operated in that stratosphere for FA. I do suppose they’ll nonetheless be some good gamers, although. Gleyber, Profar, Joc, Conforto come to thoughts, they usually’ve bought reported curiosity in a reunion with Justin Turner or Carlos Santana.

Matt (Oceanside): I noticed you’ve gotten Mookie listed because the Dodgers beginning SS. Along with his poor metrics there final season after the shock swap from second. He had spent all of the final offseason prepping for a return to 2B- doesn’t that counsel that 2B is his most evident place and both buying and selling Lux or making an attempt Lux once more at SS after an extended time away from the knee surgical procedures?

Jason Martinez: It’s a kind of difficult issues to speak on the RR Opening Day roster projection. Mookie is taking part in infield. We all know that for certain. And I don’t suppose they’re going to offer Lux one other likelihood at SS, principally as a result of they’re the Dodgers they usually don’t have to enter the season with that degree of uncertainty at an necessary spot. So what that projection tells you is that they don’t have their beginning SS on the roster presently.

The Closing Boss: Excessive Faculty Reunion in Boston? Giolito + Fried and Flaherty?

Jon Becker: Positively believable contemplating they’ve been linked to simply about each massive FA, and in the event that they don’t get Soto (or even when they do, I suppose) I might see them going massive for one or two important SP. Must share the within jokes with Houck and Bello, although.

friday scaries: Tim Tawa and Joe Elbis struck me as fascinating 40 man additions for a probable playoff contender, what do you make of them?

Jason Martinez: Tawa has put up good offensive numbers within the higher minors and he can play a number of positions (INF and OF). So I believe he’s only a man who would probably be fashionable within the R5 draft and the Dbacks didn’t need to lose him. Elbis might be in an analogous place. Not a high prospect with the big-time arm, however appears like he has good command and groups might in all probability see him as a succesful lengthy reliever in 2025.

Matt: Assume Cubs extra more likely to go FA signing of vet with out QO connected , with a view to improve SP, or will they give the impression of being to commerce mkt(SEA?)?

Jon Becker: If they will line up with the White Sox for Crochet or the Mariners for a starter, they definitely have the upper-level influence prospects to make a commerce really feel just like the “simpler” lane. In the event that they’re not all in favour of starters with QOs connected, the one high of the rotation (or near it) choices are Flaherty, Eovaldi, or an upside play on Bieber, who gained’t be prepared for the beginning of the season.

David Stearns: Prediction on who the Mets signal this offseason? Is also Taylor actually gonna begin over Siri?

Jason Martinez: I do know it in all probability looks as if Siri would begin in CF, however he was actually, actually, actually dangerous in 2024. And in lots of elements of earlier seasons. And Taylor was excellent whereas taking part in usually on the finish of the season. I don’t suppose both will begin, although.

Jon and I each predicted final week that Soto would signal with the Mets, which might probably push Nimmo to CF. And in the event that they fall brief on Soto, I believe they’ll get somebody like Teoscar or Santander. I additionally suppose they’re going to re-sign Pete Alonso. Cohen isn’t messing round this offseason.

Jon Becker: And even when that is the outfielders they’ve bought going into the season, I don’t suppose one’s going to play far more than the opposite. Siri hit fastballs higher than Taylor, Taylor hit all the things else higher, Marte will want days off, and so forth. If/once they do add, there are nonetheless going to be loads of PAs to go round, too.

Rywe: What do you suppose the Giants plan to do that offseason contemplating they’ve publicly mentioned they’re reducing payroll for 2025? I doubt Buster is gonna break the financial institution for a high-tier free agent and the Giants have so many holes to fill (SP, SS, 2B)

Jon Becker: The payroll reducing takes them out of the operating for Soto, with whom they didn’t even meet, however it gained’t stop them from a lot else. They’ve nonetheless bought about $50M to spend earlier than hitting 2024’s payroll, and there’s so much you are able to do with that (Adames + Fried are in all probability someplace round there in mixed AAV, for instance, not that I count on them to do this). They may commerce Yaz to clear up some outfield taking part in time (and money) or commerce Wade and go greater for Alonso or Walker with loads of room to nonetheless say they minimize payroll.

Rywe: What position does Tyler Fitzgerald have this yr? He was subpar at SS final season however satisfactory at 2B. Utility man that fills in on off days for Jung-Hoo Lee?

Jason Martinez: Looks as if probably the most logical spot is 2B. Possibly 1B in the event that they commerce LaMonte Wade Jr. He may be a Zobrist-type utilityman that performs on a regular basis at 4-5 totally different spots. But when they don’t get Adames or Kim, they may have to stay with him at SS.

Doc Estes: Do you’ve gotten a number of favourite post-hype prospects that will make a major influence in 2025?

Jon Becker: Does Jackson Holliday depend as post-hype but? Issues couldn’t have gone a lot worse for him on the plate, and he regarded fairly tough at second base, too, however the toe faucet he labored in over the last week of the season appeared to work out effectively. I don’t suppose the O’s are going to amass anybody to dam him, both.

Jonathan: The place will Juan Soto be taking part in in 2025?

Jason Martinez: As I discussed a number of questions in the past, Jon and I each predicted NYM in final week’s chat. However, realistically, why would he signal with any crew aside from the Dodgers, Mets, or Yankees? Phillies in all probability belong in that group, as effectively. He’s going to signal a 15-year deal and he is aware of that these groups are going to attempt to win yearly. Crimson Sox might persuade him that they are going to do the identical. Possibly the Blue Jays. Might the Nats persuade him that they plan to spend $ and be aggressive for the subsequent 15 years? Possibly. However he’s Juan Soto. He doesn’t should go together with “possibly”. He is aware of the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees are going to spend each offseason to construct round him.

Jon Becker: That’s a giant a part of why I don’t suppose the Blue Jays have a lot of a shot except they blow all the opposite presents out of the water, which I don’t suppose goes to occur, both. The promoting level is… the final yr of Vlad Jr. and a potentially-closing window with out a lot in the way in which of prospects on the way in which?

Coach73: Might You speculate on the groups that would use Gleyber torres?

Jon Becker: I believe there’ll be fairly widespread curiosity in him as a bounce again possibility, though he’s restricted to 2B and isn’t significantly good at taking part in there, both. I discussed the Mariners earlier however the Crimson Sox additionally make a number of sense, and the Blue Jays are reportedly , too. Possibly somebody just like the Marlins jumps in for a one-year provide if the multi-year contract presents aren’t wanting nice.

Blair: What SP will the Mets attempt to purchase by way of commerce? Is Luis Castillo a sensible possibility?

Jason Martinez: The Mariners are one of many few groups that may afford to commerce one in all their finest beginning pitchers so I believe it’s reasonable. However, even then, beginning rotation is the explanation they’re a professional contender each season so possibly they only don’t need to subtract from that. One potential very fascinating commerce possibility, for my part, may very well be Dylan Stop if the Padres are handcuffed financially this offseason. The worth for beginning pitchers is loopy excessive and Stop could be inexpensive at round $13-14MM for one season.

Jon Becker: I uncared for to say Stop earlier after I mentioned they don’t have a Soto-level contract/participant to commerce, and Stop definitely isn’t that, however he would convey again fairly the return. They may then flip round and signal a good starter for half as a lot. Martín Pérez pitched effectively there after the commerce, for instance.

Matt: Which of Cubs prepared or near-ready prospects deserve a legit shot this yr?

Jon Becker: Assuming well being I believe we’ll see Matt Shaw in some unspecified time in the future this yr, possibly early on Hoerner has a setback or the offense isn’t clicking. Ballesteros is one other one who might get the decision if Amaya/Thaiss are the 2 catchers and aren’t hitting. On the pitching aspect, a wholesome Cade Horton in all probability debuts in some unspecified time in the future, too.

Ben: I’ve puzzled this for thus lengthy however how are the facility rankings measured on RR? I might by no means discover an correct correlation with WAR so I by no means knew.

Jason Martinez: For batters, it’s in all probability nearer to wRC+ as a result of there isn’t any protection included within the method. After which the difficult half is to stability out counting stats and charge stats so small-sample dimension doesn’t get weighted too closely. Once I created it a very long time in the past, the purpose was so {that a} reader might simply get a basic concept of whether or not a participant was having season (general or final 7/14 days) or not after which analysis additional if needed. I believe it really works effectively for that.

Eric: If the Mets signal Juan Soto, do you count on them to match their 2024 payroll in 2025 by frequently including?

Jon Becker: Even for those who determine Soto’s at $50M/yr, spending one other ~$125M on high of that feels actually, actually laborious, however not not possible. Going aggressive on the rotation (Burnes + Manaea + Flaherty, or one thing like that) continues to be solely $75M or so.

Coach73: Do you see jonathan aranda making an influence this yr?

Jason Martinez: Sure, I do. That is his make-or-break season, for my part. He’s out of choices and the Rays haven’t actually given him a lot of a possibility. And accidents haven’t helped. As of now, I’ve him penciled in to the beginning lineup … https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/rays

I’d love for the Padres to amass him, which is feasible if the Rays don’t actually consider in him as an on a regular basis man. After all, I believe the Padres are obligated to have a number of gamers from Tijuana on their roster. Tirso Ornelas, Alejandro Kirk, and Aranda would match that purpose for me.

Jason Martinez: Gonna wrap it up now. We’ll be again for one more chat subsequent Friday on the similar time. Have an ideal weekend!

Jon Becker: Thanks for stopping by, everybody!