Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/22/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. I certainly have COVID and am  in all probability going to do an abbreviated model of chat in the present day. If anybody desires two Todd Barry tickets for tonight at Crescent Ballroom they need to holler at me.

Andy: It’s early however any ideas on subsequent yr’s draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually just like the HS class, I feel the school pitching crop will probably be method higher than final yr, I’m unsure Ethan Holliday is definitely good

Syndergaardengnomes: Too quickly for a breakdown of the highest rule 5 guys obtainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s simply such an inefficient, open-ended train with an infinite participant pool. I might spend some time simply scrolling by means of Roster Useful resource selecting names that stand out to me, however now is just not the time for it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Evan Reifert was one, simply looking the positioning like regular this week, that stood out to me.

himona: CHW employed Ryan Fuller from BAL as “hitting coordinator”. what was BAL’s draft and dev technique that produced them so many good younger hitters?

Eric A Longenhagen: They principally used the Elias-era Houston method after they picked method up high and have been in a position to land consequential over slot excessive schoolers in later rounds. Mayo and Gunnar the large two. Additionally they, internally, flip plate self-discipline and strategy right into a recreation inside the recreation which appears to enhance the gamers in a significant method

John: Do the Dodgers transfer Dashing to the OF to allow them to match his bat in sooner? Or focus extra on creating his abilities as a C.

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t be dying to maneuver him out from behind the plate, you should have depth at that place as a result of it’s so brutal.

Alexis Anthopolous: Simply how unhealthy do the returns for Murphy and Olson search for the (not Sac) A’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Langeliers redeems the Olson commerce sufficient and a bunch of these guys are going to play within the massive leagues for no less than a short while. Pache flopping hurts however that one isn’t terrible. The Murphy deal is. I simply suppose they actually, actually over-evaluated Esteury. They appeared sizzling for him the deadline earlier than, too.

Jeremy: Ought to the Phillies be planning on Andrew Painter within the rotation all season in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply due to innings depend/workload stuff, in all probability not.

Tacoby Bellsbury: How do you combine ZiPS or different projection programs into your evaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: It may be a sanity test, it would trigger me to re-evaluate somebody if there’s an enormous hole between what ZiPS thinks and what I feel. I exploit knowledge to tell choices however I’m not operating a mannequin.

Visitor: Hello Eric,

Thanks for these chats. I’m perpetually gleaning opinions on prospects. Nevertheless,nI have a number of prospects whose current efficiency leaves me questioning whether or not to chop bait or not:

1. Mick Abel, P PHI – management is atrocious and hasn’t improved as he’s moved up the system. Put him on the commerce block – ZERO curiosity. You’ve given him a 50 FV. Nonetheless legitimate? He’s descending prospect charts in a short time.

2. Carson Whisenhunt, P SF – at all times suspicious of men missing an honest FB. Numbers don’t impress.One other 50 FV however I don’t see it. SF does want pitching so I presume he’s related nonetheless.

3. Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF HOU – not displaying a lot at A-, BA provides him a forty five FV an HQ charges him extremely. Your ideas?

Eric A Longenhagen:

1. I up to date Abel ideas in my 40-man piece this week. His blurb on The Board is recent.
2. Yeah, his command continues to be not nice and he would possibly slide. Giants checklist is among the subsequent few.
3. By no means actually on him, BA doesn’t use FV.

davealden53: What’s the way forward for Jett Williams given the huge block in entrance of him within the Mets infield?

Kevin: As a Guardians fan, my eyebrows have been raised seeing Chase DeLauter now ranked tenth total on the large board. Is it protected for me to get enthusiastic about him or ought to I wait till he can keep on the sector for a reasonably lengthy time frame?

Eric A Longenhagen: Persistent accidents are a difficulty that may trigger him to slip as I do that checklist cycle

Eric A Longenhagen: Flores principally didn’t play in AFL so my ideas there are sadly TBD. Rice, no. They’ve their catcher, it’s Wells.

Jerry: Can Alan Roden (112 max EV) entry some latent energy and have a shot as a daily in 2025? Every other underrated OF’s to control for subsequent season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless not a ton of launch there, onerous hit price additionally not loopy or something. I feel he’s extra a bit than a daily. For subsequent yr? I really feel like Trei Cruz might be a Willi Castro sort… underrated guys? IDK, open ended questions like which are robust within the second. And likewise, I’m doing the ranking proper?

Visitor: Is Cartaya out of the image as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, catchers take perpetually. He’s flawed, you hope he’s Zunino sort or turns into Tyler Flowers or one thing

Sodo Mojo: Does Ben Williamson have sufficient bat to hit on the MLB degree.? You gave him a low grade on the Mariners prospect report however he did hit moderately at AA which is normally the place hitting prospects go to die within the M’s org.

Eric A Longenhagen: The grade is low however he made the checklist. I’ve an up/down on him, nonetheless suppose that’s proper.

Thrice: Received to see them final June in Seattle for the Artist within the Ambulance tour, phenomenal present. Hope you are feeling higher quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Marquee was as full as I’ve ever seen it, large age vary for the attendees which was tremendous cool. I did have a bartender with tattoos throughout his bald head ask me once I ordered a gimlet, “is that the type of drink you need in a plastic cup?” and I needed to cease myself from Larry Daviding him into the void.

tumtum: Did you get an opportunity to see Liranzo in AFL? In that case, what did you consider his catching and long run viability within the place?

Eric A Longenhagen: Arm is there, ball blocking is just not, it’ll in all probability take one other few years however he has a lot swap hitting energy for a catcher that I feel he’ll finally be excellent

Colin: Why are folks falling throughout themselves over Caleb Durbin‘s AFL efficiency when he had a principally similar efficiency in 2023, and was a yr youthful then?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is that this a factor occurring on social media or one thing? Who cares? He’s a Yankees prospect so individuals are going to speak about him, he steals bases so fantasy folks care about him.

Anon: Are you able to broaden extra on the orioles farm recreation inside a recreation for strategy and plate self-discipline?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s like: anticipated worth added for swinging at this, ev misplaced for chasing that.

David: Little bit of a late draft query. Ideas on the Mariners strategy to drafting the final couple years? Placing quite a bit into the highest of the draft and going after “precedence seniors” to offset the draft pool quantities.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tremendous cool, they’ve been in a position to scoop up a mix of ceiling (with the HS guys), depth, and proximity by getting the precedence seniors.

Anon: Are you able to say the subsequent 3-5 org prospect lists which is able to come out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Remainder of the golf equipment who practice right here within the East Valley: CHC, ARI, COL, SFG

Roman: Thanks for the year-round prospects updates. Given SD’s payroll limitations and roster turnover, do you suppose that Eguy Rosario and Tirso Ornelas can cowl the bench roles that Solano and Peralta had final yr? Eguy specifically seems to be like an important platoon possibility for SD alongside Cronenworth/Arraez.

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel Eguy will get rostered, I feel Ornelas they could attempt to improve since you need somebody extra established and impactful to fill that LHH OF platoon sort function (Joc Pederson, Conforto sort) and Tirso nonetheless has choices left.

Buff: To return to Jett Williams, do you see him because the CF of the longer term for the Mets?

Scott: You often word {that a} hitter thriving in low minors has a gap that will probably be uncovered in a while. Different evaluators don’t appears to write down that up as usually and typically it places you on an island for higher or worse.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve grown completely snug with this.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d a lot somewhat be incorrect when the opinion was completely mine than among the alternate options.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Brandon Younger‘s velo regularly declined when he hit AAA and settled round 92 mph. Does your analysis indicate he’ll tick again as much as 93-94 after an offseason of relaxation? He did pitch ~100 innings after being on the shelf for like two years.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on board together with your stamina take, and likewise I feel that pitch has motion/angle that may allow it to play even when it isn’t onerous, and Younger command the heck out of it.

Fuz: Did Kayfus’s efficiency get him a FV above 35?

Eric A Longenhagen: For positive, ought to have been on final yr’s checklist.

Large Gonzales: I’m sorry you’re sick and need to miss Todd Barry. He’s nice. Being sick is just not so nice. My query of the day is in regards to the Pink Sox. Am I incorrect in pondering that you must maintain the large 4 and see how they play as a substitute of cashing out early? Teel is sweet for a C, however the different 3 have massive upsides and in the event you can develop a 5-6 struggle star, then you definitely try this as a substitute of buying and selling one or two for a #2 pitcher that must be prolonged, proper? I’ve seen this reset so many occasions since 2000 that I don’t need to see Breslow money in all of the chips after they have cash to spend.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t commerce guys you want and suppose may be a giant deal till you recognize you’re really a ’25 contender.

Ben: Is younger Chourio higher the the older?

Beau: have there been any highschool prospects from the 2024 class which have pressured an adjustment to their pre-draft evaluations primarily based on early SSS in bridge leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, I assumed Slade Caldwell regarded good, Kellon Lindsey fairly good (don’t know if both strikes, had fairly robust grades on each pre draft)

Colton: Odd the Pirates begin the yr with Bubba within the rotation? Seems like an honest shot at successful ROY and so they simply obtained burned by Skenes successful it this yr and misplaced the decide

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess not. He’s not even on the 40-man, you’re taking away out of your depth once you add him and need to subtract any person else. It’s believable he completely kicks down the door, however I’d guess he ends debuting later in ’25 after they want him due to accidents, or late sufficient that his rookie standing and all 3 choices may be preserved for ’26

Ben Schneider: Hello Eric, do you suppose Sutter Well being and Steinbrenner will play any in a different way in MLB video games than in PCL or FSL video games?

Eric A Longenhagen: This can be a nice query and doubtless deserves its personal article from somebody smarter than I’m who can use physics or one thing to ballpark how the change in pitch velocity will affect ball flight at these locations. Sacramento is among the pitcher-friendly PCL parks, however that’s relative to the remainder of the PCL, not the large leagues.

Coolby: I’m going to spring coaching in Arizona for the primary time this February! The place in Goodyear ought to I take my foodie companion  to eat to thank her for indulging my baseball obsession?

Eric A Longenhagen: The west finish of the Metro is hard, bro. Go downtown and eat at Lom Wong.

Kate: Any ideas on Boston Baro? Appears to be like like contact and plate self-discipline is there, energy is behind however at 6’3″ 180ish I’d suppose he faucets into extra energy

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, I dig him. Has really feel to hit, projectable, love the lefty-hitting infield broad strokes profile.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll have a lightweight contact with each these guys this cycle, I feel. I had a 50 on Dominguez, nothing loopy. Jones I stuffed.

Tom: Bryce Elridge: Can I dream for a 2025 30 HR Giants participant or is that simply wishful pondering?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pipe dream

Dadbauer: Ought to Brewer followers be as enthusiastic about Jesus Made than we have been about Chourio? Or ought to we pump the breaks?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in, the info is nuts and he has “the look”. Ought to he be a high 10 prospect instantly or something like that? In all probability not.

Dan: Very a lot respect that you simply shared the DSL Mets livestream hyperlink a few chats in the past. to listen to the way you deal with rating and evaluating prospects like Cristopher Larez, who’s clearly proficient however is coming off a 56-game PED suspension

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s one the place I cop out by way of he commerce worth POV and point out him on the finish of the checklist. Is anybody buying and selling for that man proper now? In all probability not.

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, these Mets DSL streams have featured them taking part in Milwaukee a bunch these days, for you Made freaks.

carl: i see quite a lot of charlie condon hate on the web. thats overblown proper? its so early in his profession

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d by no means say “hate”, however “skepticism”? Yeah, however in some locations on the web that was current earlier than he draft.

Leric A Ongenhagen: Ought to the Cardinals transfer Roby to the pen? He has good things, however two misplaced years with shoulder accidents

Eric A Longenhagen: Appears to be like like they did after he got here again towards the tip of the yr.

Junior Marin: Is there any particular knowledge/trait from DSL prospects that you simply consider to be an honest predictor of success as soon as the prospects come stateside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Far more noise than sign for DSL knowledge as a consequence of competitors high quality. I feel you may establish crimson flags in chase and phone charges, however massive DSL exit velos are sometimes a product of bodily maturity somewhat than talent.

GraphsFan: Do you proceed to observe prospect graduates, or are likely to observe / scout ballplayers much less intently the additional they get from graduating from prospectdom?

Eric A Longenhagen: I watch and observe the large leagues intently

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve gotta, I really feel like

Kate: Made gonna go straight to A ball this yr, following the current Brewers’ custom?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s an important and terrifying query that simply made Invoice Mitchell do a spit take for worry of not attending to {photograph} him subsequent spring.

Jacob: Do you just like the AFL triple headers? Or does it simply make for a really lengthy day?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends upon the site visitors, actually. I really like attempting to power myself to maintain focusing midway via recreation 3 or no matter, amid 15 mixed walks. It isn’t nice for writing and really making stuff for the positioning, although.

Ben Schneider: Did any of the 40-man additions actually shock you?

Kate: Michael Arroyo’s 2024 carry you round in any respect?  Or was that principally a product of a brilliant hitter pleasant park?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply peeking at his spray chart (and perhaps I placed on a number of swings of him going through stuff on the interior third of the plate whereas I’ve been chatting, who’s to say?) this isn’t as red-flaggy. Had a whole lack of ability to drag fastballs, thought he’d get labored up round his palms, at first look that is higher.

Jacob: What can be your greatest updates to the e-book in the event you edited it in the present day?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d wanna write about language modeling, minor league contraction’s knock-on results, the switch portal’s knock-on results

Ben Schneider: While you say you’re taking a look at stuff on the interior third, do you’ve got a strategy to shortly filter pitch varieties and site to look at video?

Eric A Longenhagen: (Smiling and nodding devilishly)

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, time for me to separate. No chat subsequent week due to Turkey Day (go Roughs). Thanks for chatting, please contemplate a sub to the positioning or no less than ditch your advert blocker, all of us respect your help so very a lot. Deuces