Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat- 10/18

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from stunning Tempe the place the temps have lastly dipped after one thing like 20 days in a row of document highs.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to the 2 east valley Fall League video games at the moment and wish to put the bow on one other dispatch of notes so I’ll seemingly preserve this chat tight to the highest of the hour.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay let’s boogie…

Sox fan: Hey Eric – thanks for all of your prospects content material. Questioning once you’ll have any updates on the upcoming worldwide signing intervals. Significantly desirous about any Pink Sox associated intel. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, I’ve bought a bunch of huge $ names and staff for the subsequent couple of years in my notes and I’ll be constructing out the $1mil+ model of The Board for publication within the subsequent few weeks…

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have any Boston guys for ’25 in my notes, they’ve tended to unfold out medium sized bonuses throughout their total class quite than spend $2mil+ on anybody man and I think about that’s the case once more

Victoria: There was discuss of the Cubs buying and selling from their loaded high of the system. Individuals often recommend Triantos or Alcántara, however what in the event that they determined Mo Baller wasn’t going to make it as a catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Then yeah, his worth within the eyes of staff who assume he can catch can be approach larger than it might be to the Cubs in that state of affairs and it’d extra make sense to maneuver him

Matt Thompson: Bummed I’m not making it out to the AFL this yr and I’ll be dwelling vicariously by means of all of the movies I watch through Twitter. With the standard of pitching out right here being the worst it has been in years, how does that impact  your total high quality of appears you’re getting? Particularly on gamers you haven’t had go by means of Arizona but?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey Matty, sorry I received’t be seeing you at FPAZ then. Yeah, the hitting surroundings right here is often nutty (attributable to pitcher high quality and altitude, and many others.) and that’s the case once more this yr as we watch at the least one man are available and stroll/hit a bunch of dudes and completely alter the vibe and give-a-frick quotient of the sport we’re all watching…

Eric A Longenhagen: The “look” (stuff like athleticism, bat pace, any visible element) and the “efficiency” (everybody’s stats for the six week league) are nonetheless simple sufficient to separate to get one thing out of the league regardless that you must contextualize it

Roman: Padres followers are actually excited for Salas and De Vries. Even should you assume they’ll be nearly as good as Merrill at 20, that places their ETA at 2027. What do you assume is a sensible expectation?

Eric A Longenhagen: ’28-’29 someplace in there

Eric A Longenhagen: that’ simply their inventory 40-man timeline, which I believe is a match for each guys. Perhaps De Vries catches up by a yr jsut as a result of enjoying MIF will not be as nuanced and tough as catching.

Reuben: Any smoke on growth with Oakland and Tampa shifting?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the event that they’ll have to vacate the Trop for a whole season then it’d be cool/logical for the Rays to pilot growth in Charlotte or Nashville kinda just like the Hornets did in OKC after Katrina.

Eric A Longenhagen: In the event that they’re solely gonna have to remain out of the Trop till mid-’25 or so then I guess they play at a spring facility, even when it’s the Braves new spot in North Port or one thing like that quite than their very own in Port Charlotte

Eric A Longenhagen: From what I’ve heard there’s nonetheless quite a lot of evaluation of the Trop’s situation to do earlier than any avenues are literally mentioned.

The Hoffer: Curious should you noticed Eriq Swan final evening. Lot of fascinating traits there however can he stick as a starter/what’s his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did Mesa/Scottsdale final evening, haven’t run into Swan but.

Jon: Kristian Campbell has flown up prospect boards, and there are reportedly folks within the Sox FO who assume he’s the most effective prospect within the system.  What are your ideas on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s within the high 4 for positive and I spoke to a non-Sox individual yesterday who thinks you can also make a coherent argument for KC over each Anthony and Marcelo. Talked to somebody who tried to sooth my apprehension about Campbell’s swing by placing the Hunter Pence comp on him

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is it the warmth or the altitude on the AFL that’s resulting in the balls flying >110 mph? Both approach, how do you as a prospects author chip off EV or else modify energy grades when the surroundings is nutty like within the PCL?

Eric A Longenhagen: For positive. I watched Saggese barely hit a ball (95 mph exit) that snuck out to the alternative subject. The wind, strain, all the things is at present shifting right here as our seasons lastly change. There are dudes with big juice right here, although. If I can isolate exit velos from AFL and examine them to everybody’s common season knowledge I’m wondering if there might be a constant delta throughout the pattern

O’Malley: WHat does Lawlar’s enjoying time seem like subsequent yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obvioualy let’s watch to see what they do with Geno’s membership choice as a result of in the event that they don’t decide it up then Lawlar’s gonna be in there nearly instantly. I believe he’s going to play a ton however I guess Perdomo opens the yr because the starter…

Eric A Longenhagen: Any damage on their infield most likely slides Geraldo to that spot and Lawlar into the lineup at SS.

Eric A Longenhagen: So let’s say, like 400 PA for Lawlar subsequent yr?

Catherine: Are Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana high 100 candidates going into this cycle? Early proof of enchancment on the a part of Nationals pitching dev (and if that’s the case any wider proof within the system?) or simply two guys with nice stuff who occurred to place it collectively?

Eric A Longenhagen: Undoubtedly candidates however not locks. Nats dev enchancment can be one thing I’d really feel extra snug declaring as soon as I’ve performed that system and touched base on dozens of their guys.

Visitor: do you’ve any perception on Briceno or Liranzo’s long run projections as soon as they get to Detroit?  Do you assume both of them stick behind the plate?  If not, is the batted ball profile of both of them robust sufficient to justify a 1B or DH spot on the subsequent stage?   Simply curious to the kind of upside you assume both could or could not possess

Eric A Longenhagen: Liranzo has seemed tough again there thus far this Fall however that’s nearly all the time the case right here. You’re gassed and catching an entire new workers of fellows. I believe each Briceno and Liranzo have the bodily traits of long-term catchers (measurement and sturdiness are so necessary) who, over time, present they’ll climate the beating catchers take and nonetheless produce. I really feel higher about Liranzo profiling at 1B/DH as a result of it’s such nutty switch-hitting energy. Briceno’s energy surge right here (he hit extra homers in a single recreation than he had all season) is extra a product of the surroundings, he solely actually smoked a kind of homers.

Matt: Since you reside within the space, curious you probably have you seen in the event that they’ve made any progress on renovations at Tempe Diablo Stadium? (Pitching/hitting labs, new clubhouse)

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve solely been within the stadium itself currently and never down by the ability that sits in the course of the backfields

Mike R.: It looks like not a single Yankee prospect apart from Agustin Ramirez lived as much as expectations this yr. Hate to be grasping contemplating the key league success, however went went fallacious in our farm system?

Eric A Longenhagen: I assume I’d say I believe Lombard’s season was successful however in any other case I see what you imply..

Eric A Longenhagen: I used to be not on Everson Pereira so his season doesn’t actually shock me. The truth that so most of the younger pitchers barely performed (Chalniel Arias, Henry Lalane) was not nice. So most of the high-upside elements of the system are in Complicated/A ball.

Ely: How involved ought to we be about Jun-Seok Shim? Even in tiny AFL pattern, his stuff doesn’t look proper.

Eric A Longenhagen: Regarded fairly terrible the day I noticed him. Sitting 90-91, tremendous quick and unathletic stride, breaking ball had okay depth however was simple to identify out of his hand.

Phil: Have you ever seen Danny Kirwin? He has an awesome story and I’d love him to make it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, funky strategy angle and large time sweeper. Has a shot to make it.

Jim: What do you see Walcott doing subsequent yr, each in efficiency in addition to place?

Eric A Longenhagen: May be the most effective prospect in baseball by the tip of the yr

Jason N: A Padres beat author just lately made the declare that internally, the staff more and more views DeVries as a greater prospect than Salas.  You coming round to that opinion, too?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna see how Leo traits on protection. If he’s a 2B then nah, gimme the catcher. I believe it’s advantageous to be extra assured that Leo will really hit than Ethan.

Uncle Spike: What number of instances do you could see a prospect earlier than you’re snug placing a grade on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: With out the help of knowledge and video in any respect? In all probability like 4 or 5 video games with at the least one BP and infield earlier than I get a take a look at each instrument.

Visitor: Hey Eric, do you’ve any up to date ideas on Alex Freeland because you final wrote him up earlier than the season? Had an enormous yr besides he struggled at AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless quite a lot of swing and miss occurring there, massive time arm would possibly enable him to play SS regardless of missing typical vary. Assume he needs to be larger than I had him on final yr’s Dodger’s record however I don’t essentially assume he’s a high 100 man or something.

Lord Thunder: Tommy Troy. A giant recreation final evening, however actually struggled earlier than that, together with the common season. Is he nonetheless a high 100 man?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a kind of guys who I’ll take all 6 weeks to eval earlier than feeling like I’ve to make a name. Bat could merely not be within the hitting zone for very lengthy inflicting a lot of Ok’s, is perhaps higher suited as an impression utility kind.

Kate: Did 2024 elevate any considerations for you with Drew Gilbert (apart from sturdiness)?  Or was this only a yr misplaced to damage and he’s nonetheless the identical man?

Eric A Longenhagen: His head is flying out a ton, he’s not monitoring the ball like I wish to see from a man who was projected to make quite a lot of contact. Evaluating his CF protection on tape might be a figuring out issue, I’ve seen him enjoying a nook in video games out right here thus far.

Kate: Does Drake Baldwin have the athleticism to play any non-catcher positions to get his bat within the MLB lineup?  Heard they could have been contemplating him within the outfield?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s constructed like a catcher, I believe he and Harry Ford are offseason commerce candidates.

doughboy: The Tigers have performed an awesome job of late growing beginning pitching arms. Is Rayner Castillo subsequent in line? Ideas on his projectability?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not tremendous on him off one look right here. Under avg athlete, t95, sitting 93, good slider. fringe 40 man RP for me

Michael: First time going to Arizona fall league any recommendation? Which parks ought to I prioritize?

Eric A Longenhagen: Verify the schedule throughout your dates right here and keep someplace you possibly can max out video games however decrease journey. take a look at the times with potential double ups and eat someplace enjoyable in between. verify ASU’s fall schedule and work in one in all their scrimmages should you can. I’d quite keep East Valley than West in a vacuum.

Uncle Spike: When you’re scouting AFL video games, are you getting in with a handful of fellows you’re watching carefully or are you evaluating everybody on the sector?

Eric A Longenhagen: Todos del peloteros.

Lord Thunder: One present minor leaguer who’s a slam dunk — or near it — being a beginning MLB SS. Who ya’ bought?

Steve: Appears such as you’ve been one of many larger guys on Spencer Jones. His statline had a pleasant final 6 weeks of the season – what’s your present opinion of him and do you assume he can modify to repair the swing and miss points?

Eric A Longenhagen: He seemed a large number nearly all yr however I’m nonetheless inclined to guess on long run expertise and projection. He’s going to have such uncommon lefty energy that I’ll be snug with being the excessive man on his this offseason. He’s a flawed participant however I believe he’ll finally make an enormous energy impression.

Pam: Zhyir Hope shortly ascending to be a high 50 prospect? 25? Persistence, energy…solely 19…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s solely 19 however his physique is maxed so projecting on his physicality a ton doesn’t make sense. He’s additionally not an excellent outfielder proper now and I believe his hit instrument (or at the least the analysis of his hit instrument) stays fairly unstable. Having stated that, the facility/pace combo and his skill to provide energy in a brief mechanical distance is fairly substantial. He is perhaps a high 100 man this offseason primarily based on his upside however I’m not gonna high 25 him or something like that.

Doink: Ideas on the improved energy that Tre’ Morgan is outwardly displaying?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe I’m in

Eric A Longenhagen: really feel higher about him than I did about Manzardo after his AFL look

Andre Thee Big: What are the percentages that Nolan McLean sticks as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe they’re okay, kinda within the state of affairs Schwellenbach was the place you wanna guess that he’ll enhance as soon as he specializes

Justin: What do you make of Jackson Merrill’s season, did anybody see this coming?

Eric A Longenhagen: however then i slid him getting into ’24 pondering he’d find yourself enjoying LF. No person might have seen him enjoying a very good CF having had zero reps there, ever.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol take a look at Druw and Amador up there, although jfc

EonADS: Parker Messick took massive steps ahead this season in Cleveland’s system. Dominated AA hitters fully and improved throughout the board, together with inclining velocity, higher command, and an elevated ground-ball price. Does he seem like a 50 FV to you? As a result of he does to me.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s not loopy

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Might you compromise a guess for me – which of you/Tess/Travis covers the mid-Atlantic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess has taken a step again from the location, Travis lives in Kansas (and I guess he will get employed by a staff this offseason) and he and I each cowl all the things. I head house to PA and drive up and down I-95 yearly to see Jap, Int’l, Sally League stuff

Andre Thee Big: You had been the one analyst I learn who stated that Mark Vientos had improved sufficient defensively to be a reputable third baseman. Congrats.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks? I imply, he’s not nice over there.

Grandal Richuk: Are there any prospects proper now the place you’re keen to disregard the information you’ve on them?

Eric A Longenhagen: The model-driven NPC varieties who you must discuss the data-heavy analysts out of loving

Eddy: Omg, been ready for a chat to lastly ask you — the place do you sit on Mick Abel these days? Future RP?

Eric A Longenhagen: wanting increasingly more like that, i’ve bought him towards the again of the 100 with all the opposite robust armed guys with zero really feel

Eric A Longenhagen: Oop, we’re previous 10. I’ve gotta cut up. Nice questions once more this week, together with many I didn’t get to. Wanting ahead to hopping on with you all once more subsequent Friday. Go try the FG Youtube channel for Fall League video. See you subsequent friday