Let’s Study Swing Path Variety within the 2024 Playoffs

It’s essentially the most fantastic time of the yr: October baseball. As all the time within the playoffs, I’ve been eager to watch lineup development and offensive personnel, notably from a bat path perspective. Over the previous few years particularly, the matchup recreation has develop into an increasing number of essential as managers navigate the platoon benefit that comes from switching pitchers out and in of the sport.

In 2023 and 2022, I explored how Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) can function a proxy for analyzing swing variety in a group’s lineup. At first it began as a approach of investigating why the Astros have been so constant within the playoffs, then it turned a approach for me to grasp which lineups have essentially the most versatility in bat path and handedness. In principle, the extra versatility, the more durable it’s for a pitcher-catcher mixture to recreation plan. If a lefty with a flat bat path hits forward of a righty with a steep bat path — as is the case with Juan Soto and Aaron Choose — a pitcher is pressured to execute two totally different approaches. If that variance carries by way of a whole lineup, good luck! Spoiler alert, I’m mainly describing the Dodgers, however extra on that later.

As I’ve stated in numerous blogs of mine, VBA is just not a catch-all metric for describing bat path. Assault Angle (AA) and Vertical Entry Angle (VEA), amongst different metrics, are essential for understanding the total story of every participant’s path. However on this piece, I’m going to stay with simply VBA as a result of that’s what I’ve used for this piece in earlier years. Listed below are just a few key factors which can be essential to rehash earlier than displaying the outcomes.

For left-handed hitters, I made their common VBA unfavourable to account for the truth that they swing from the opposite facet of the plate. (VBA information is supplied by SwingGraphs.) For switch-hitters, I multiplied their common VBA by -0.72 as a result of the league-wide charge of switch-hitter plate appearances that come in opposition to righty pitchers — when they’re batting lefty — is 72%. Moreover, regardless that I used regular-season VBA information, I included solely hitters who’ve recorded at the very least one playoff plate look this yr within the pattern. By not together with guys who didn’t bat throughout the postseason, the dataset is extra consultant of every playoff group’s VBA variance based mostly on how its offense is presently constructed. With the remaining group of gamers, I took the variance of the VBAs on the given group and adjusted it to be a share above or under common. The common is about at 100, identical to wRC+. With out additional ado, right here is the replace on VBAVar+ for 2024:

As I alluded to earlier, the Dodgers come out on prime this yr. Their addition of Shohei Ohtani is an enormous assist. Shocker! He comes earlier than Mookie Betts, who’s then adopted by Freddie Freeman. From a VBA perspective, these three hitters provide quick variance atop the lineup. Ohtani’s VBA sits round 34 levels on common (though we all know he can alter his swing a ton). Betts affords a really related VBA at simply round 33.7 levels, however his comes from the opposite facet of the plate, and he’s a lot shorter than Ohtani. After that, Freeman has one of many steepest swings in baseball at simply over 40 levels on common. The totally different angles are one method to illuminate how totally different they’re as hitters. They drive pitchers to execute a number of pitches in several places as a result of every of them has totally different strengths or weaknesses as a result of shapes of their swings.

Being and not using a wholesome Freeman takes a flexible layer out of the lineup. The primary baseman is nursing a sprained ankle and bone bruise, an harm that will usually warrant a restoration time of 4 to 6 weeks. He didn’t play within the Dodgers’ 8-0 win over the Padres in Recreation 4 on Wednesday, however he’s within the lineup for Friday evening’s Recreation 5. Both approach, he’s not at full energy. Throughout his Recreation 4 absence, Max Muncy moved over to his outdated residence at first base, whereas Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernández cut up the third base duties. Because the Dodgers confirmed of their Recreation 4 rout, they’ve loads of different boppers following the three stars of their lineup. It begins with Teoscar Hernández’s impartial VBA of 33-34 levels. He’s adopted by Muncy’s barely flatter swing (31 levels). Then comes the righty Will Smith together with his steeper angle of about 36 levels. The underside third is highlighted by Gavin Lux and Tommy Edman, who present pitchers one other totally different look with their flatter swings (each lower than 29 levels on common). I do know, I mainly listed all the lineup, however that’s precisely the purpose: The Dodgers have a ton of proficient hitters with totally different swing profiles, making it very troublesome for pitchers to give you a concrete gameplan to get them out. Final season, the Dodgers have been second on this metric. The additions of Ohtani, Teoscar Hernández, and Edman, in addition to the return of Lux from harm, have helped push the Dodgers to the highest of the listing.

The Yankees even have loads of star energy of their lineup. They’ve struggled offensively to this point by way of their 4 playoff video games and are simply barely above common when it comes to lineup swing variance. Choose is their solely hitter on this pattern who has a mean VBA above 33 levels. Nonetheless, as I discussed earlier, the highest of their lineup is all of the extra harmful as a result of their two finest hitters, Choose and Soto, have fully totally different VBAs. Choose’s is 41 levels, whereas Soto’s is 26, they usually additionally come from totally different sides of the plate.

The Padres and Royals seem third and fourth on this leaderboard, respectively. San Diego’s placement is essentially resulting from its potential to rotate left- and right-handed hitters. On Wednesday, the Padres’ lineup went like this: L, R, L, R, L, R, L, R, L. There’s one spot that stands proud particularly: Batting Manny Machado fourth and Jackson Merrill fifth. Machado’s flat swing is geared towards crushing heaters, whereas Merrill’s steeper swing (and flexibility) permits him to hit sliders effectively. If pitchers wish to spam sliders to Machado, they’re pressured to regulate shortly and take a special strategy with Merrill. Sure, that’s attainable. But when it makes issues even simply barely tougher for pitchers, it’s value it.

Kansas Metropolis is kind of totally different from the opposite groups mentioned to this point as a result of its offense is prime heavy. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are the 2 key threats. Should you’re not going to overwhelm pitchers offensively with a bunch of star energy, at the very least give them various seems to be, proper? That’s what this lineup does. The Royals have a handful of lefty hitters with totally different VBAs, starting from Kyle Isbel (very flat) to Adam Frazier (very steep). The Tigers, the opposite AL Central group to safe a Wild Card berth, are an analogous story.

The Tigers have accomplished simply sufficient offensively throughout the playoffs to this point. They haven’t actually had an enormous breakout recreation, however their versatility has allowed A.J. Hinch to make pinch-hitting choices that put his group in a greater place to play in opposition to the strengths of Detroit’s opponents. An excellent instance of this got here in Recreation 2 of the Wild Card Collection in opposition to the Houston Astros, when Andy Ibáñez pinch-hit for Zach McKinstry in opposition to left-hander Josh Hader within the eighth inning. From a handedness perspective, the transfer is straight ahead; McKinstry bats left-handed whereas Ibáñez is a righty. However what makes this an particularly shrewd transfer is the truth that, from a bat path perspective, Ibáñez could be a great matchup for the Tigers in opposition to Hader. Hader has a flat strategy angle on his fastball, which he’s making an attempt to maintain above the bats of hitters, and Ibáñez has a flat swing — on common, his VBA hovered between 26 and 27 levels this season — which helps him to keep away from swinging beneath greater pitches. That’s precisely what occurred. Hader fired a sinker up within the zone, and Ibáñez hammered it for a go-ahead double.

And generally, you’ve gotten related personnel who’re all enjoying so effectively that having variance doesn’t matter all that a lot! That’s precisely what’s occurring in Queens. Virtually all the Mets lineup is inside 5 levels of VBA. The one exception is J.D. Martinez, who has a steeper path within the excessive 30s. I don’t suppose the Mets’ place all the best way down on this leaderboard is a nasty factor; good hitters are good hitters no matter their swing paths. Placing collectively a lineup with a excessive VBA variance is only one method to construct a profitable group, but it surely’s removed from the one approach.

That is the third yr I’ve accomplished this train and it’s one in all my private favorites. The extra context that may be added to a group’s lineup, the higher you’ll be able to perceive matchups and managerial choices. Within the small pattern of the playoffs, groups must flex no matter aggressive benefit is obtainable. When you’ve gotten the personnel to make life more durable to your opponents, you higher train it.