He’s Not Your Manic Pixie Dream Boyd

I began writing this text simply earlier than the playoffs started, and I framed it to myself as a trailer for an early-2000s romantic comedy. I assumed Matthew Boyd and the Cleveland Guardians match the rom-com components surprisingly properly. After his second breakup along with his ex (the Tigers), Boyd was harm (recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure), unemployed (a free agent), and quick on suitors (unsigned properly into the season). When he had his meet cute (signed a contract) with the Guardians, they have been profitable (finest document within the AL) however one thing was lacking (beginning pitching). Sparks flew immediately. Boyd pitched to a 2.72 ERA in eight begins. Cleveland gained six of these eight video games.

Now, the Guardians are only a baseball crew, standing in entrance of a Boyd, asking him to begin within the ALDS. Exchange Boyd with Kate Hudson and make him a journalist as a substitute of a baseball participant, and also you’ve acquired your film. A couple of Boyd. To All of the Boyds I’ve Beloved Earlier than. You get it.

Sadly for me (and luckily for the remainder of you), my colleague Kiri Oler got here out with a superb piece not so way back that simply so occurred to make use of a Kate Hudson rom-com as a framing system. I used to be delighted that two totally different writers thought to jot down about Kate Hudson on a web site that normally couldn’t have any much less to do with Kate Hudson, not to mention the truth that we each thought to do it in the identical week. On the identical time, I used to be disillusioned I’d spent a lot time arising with “Boyd” puns for nothing.

Fortunately, that setback turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Free of the constraints of a formulaic style, I noticed I by no means ought to have diminished both Boyd or the Guardians to a cliché. Tropes exist for a motive; when used correctly, they’re a helpful literary system. And but it’s how far this particular playoff pitcher and this particular playoff crew stray from any form of standard script that makes them each fascinating.

Slightly over three months in the past, Boyd’s future was fully up within the air. He was a yr faraway from Tommy John surgical procedure. He hadn’t pitched a qualifying season since 2020 or a full certified season since 2019. He was 33 years outdated, and accidents had been the defining theme since his age-30 season in 2021. Now, loads of free brokers handle to land a contract throughout an offseason wherein they’re recovering from surgical procedure; Tyler Mahle and Brandon Woodruff are a few current examples. The groups that signed them, the Rangers and Brewers, respectively, have been keen to just accept the dangers to reap the potential rewards. Sadly for Boyd, no crew had been keen to take such danger on him, or at the very least no crew had been keen to take sufficient of a danger, financially talking, for Boyd to place pen to paper; nobody provided him a significant league deal this previous offseason.

Lastly, on June 29, 2024, Boyd inked a significant league cope with the Guardians. Six weeks later, he completed his rehab and returned to a giant league mound. Lower than two months after that, he’s going to be the ALDS Sport 2 starter for the second-best crew within the American League. That’s not normally the way it works.

The Sport 2 starters for the opposite three groups that earned a first-round bye are 2024 All-Star Cristopher Sánchez, blockbuster commerce deadline acquisition Jack Flaherty, and one of many highest-paid pitchers in baseball, Carlos Rodón. All three of them have began within the postseason earlier than. Boyd has not. Boyd has additionally by no means been an All-Star, and he hasn’t been a part of a blockbuster commerce since he was one of many prospects the Blue Jays despatched to the Tigers for David Value in 2015. I can’t say with 100% certainty that Boyd isn’t one of many highest-paid pitchers in baseball, however that’s solely as a result of the small print of his 2024 contract haven’t but been reported, which successfully tells you every little thing that you must know. If Boyd have been a much bigger deal (and if he had signed a much bigger deal), extra folks would care that his assured wage on RosterResource remains to be listed as TBD.

Nonetheless, probably the most uncommon factor about Boyd as a Sport 2 starter is unquestionably the truth that he wasn’t even on a crew for the primary three months of the season. I regarded again at each Sport 1 and a pair of starter from each postseason sequence of the previous 15 years, and I solely discovered two others who have been unsigned on Opening Day: Dallas Keuchel of the 2019 Braves and Pedro Martinez of the 2009 Phillies. Until Boyd is hiding a Cy Younger Award, some All-Star appearances, and a powerful postseason résumé in the back of his closet, he isn’t corresponding to Keuchel or Martinez. Quite the opposite, Boyd’s résumé is so sparse that it permits me to attract a parallel between Keuchel and one of many biggest pitchers of all time with out sounding ridiculous.

To be clear, none of that is to say that Boyd is undeserving of this chance. By eight begins and 39 2/3 innings pitched within the common season, he put up a 2.72 ERA and three.29 FIP. From his debut on August 13 to the tip of the season, his 0.9 WAR led the Guardians pitching employees. If Boyd had maintained that stage of efficiency over 32 begins, his 3.6 WAR would have ranked ninth amongst AL pitchers, in between Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi. I’m not saying he would have stored up that tempo, essentially; I’m simply attempting to contextualize how properly he pitched within the eight begins he did make.

So how did the Guardians find yourself ready the place (a) they completed with the second-best document within the AL and (b) their no. 2 starter is a midseason pickup from the aspect of the street? Coming into play on June 29, the Guardians had one of the best document within the AL. Their playoff odds had nearly tripled since Opening Day. They have been flying excessive, however they’d one obtrusive weak spot. Their beginning rotation had a 4.42 ERA, twelfth within the AL; that group’s 4.72 FIP ranked final, as did its 2.3 WAR. Shane Bieber was executed for the season. Gavin Williams had been on the IL all yr. Triston McKenzie and Logan Allen have been struggling badly. In the meantime, Cleveland’s greatest offseason signings have been Ben Energetic and Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco was simply consuming innings. Energetic was enjoying properly, but it surely was arduous to not assume he was pitching over his head. The one starter who regarded like he genuinely belonged on the highest crew within the AL was Tanner Bibee. The Guardians took an opportunity on Boyd as a result of they have been working out of choices.

They acquired Williams again from the IL in July. They promoted rookie Joey Cantillo later that month. The one starter they added on the deadline was an injured Alex Cobb. These three, together with Bibee, Energetic, and Boyd, made up the Guardians rotation in September. Evidently, the entrance workplace did little to handle a key space of weak spot. The rotation completed the season ranked twenty fourth in ERA, twenty fourth in FIP, and twenty seventh in WAR.

So, the query persists: How did this crew get to this point with so little from its starters? The reply, in fact, is the bullpen. The Guardians have been one in every of two groups to complete with extra bullpen WAR than rotation WAR in 2024. (The Marlins have been the opposite.) On this age of openers and expanded bullpens, it’s changing into extra widespread for at the very least one or two groups to complete with extra bullpen WAR than rotation WAR in a given yr, but it surely stays exceedingly uncommon for a good crew to get extra worth out of it bullpen than its rotation. Relationship again to at the very least World Battle II, solely 19 groups have completed a season with extra bullpen WAR than rotation WAR, and solely two of these groups made the playoffs. Heck, solely two completed above .500: the 2024 Guardians and the 2020 Braves. That makes this yr’s Guardians the one crew to ever make the playoffs in a full season with extra bullpen WAR than rotation WAR:

Should you favor extra conventional stats in your enjoyable information, the Guardians even have the most important distinction between their starters’ successful share (.467) and relievers’ successful share (.778) of any crew to ever make the playoffs (since at the very least 1945). They’ve the best relievers’ successful share and the bottom starters’ successful share of any postseason crew in that point interval. And this isn’t just a few crew that snuck into the playoffs by the pores and skin of its tooth; it is a division-winning membership with a first-round bye. Like I stated, Boyd is an unconventional playoff pitcher, and the Guardians are unconventional playoff crew.

If I have been sticking with the rom-com theme, I’d should discover a technique to carry a few blissful ending. Boyd and the Guardians must pull off a powerful victory over his former crew and their newer, youthful, flashier southpaw within the ALDS. In fact, I can’t assure that. After successful Sport 1 on Saturday, Cleveland’s possibilities of successful the sequence are at 72.6%. Everyone knows this Tigers crew has come again from far worse odds.

Every little thing that makes Boyd and the Guardians such an uncommon story additionally makes sustaining their success look like a high-wire act. Boyd has been the beneficiary of each good protection (+2 OAA whereas he was pitching) and unhealthy protection (4 of the 16 runs he allowed have been unearned) to assist preserve his ERA beneath 3.00. Lots of his peripheral numbers are nonetheless spectacular, particularly his 3.10 xERA and 29.7% whiff fee, but it surely’s essential to recollect we’re working with a minuscule pattern measurement. Boyd’s 4.85 profession ERA throughout greater than 900 innings of labor looms giant in comparison with his 2.72 ERA in lower than 40 innings this season. His 8.0% HR/FB ratio is properly beneath his 13.4% profession common, and his 0.66 GB/FB would rank second to final amongst certified pitchers. Whereas he would possibly be capable of preserve the ball within the yard at Progressive Area, it’s straightforward to think about him working into bother at a unique ballpark in a future sequence. What’s extra, PitchingBot and Stuff+ agree his general stuff is properly beneath common and the worst it’s been since at the very least 2020.

In the meantime, the Guardians may need had the bottom bullpen FIP in baseball, however additionally they had the widest damaging hole between their 2.57 ERA and three.30 FIP (-0.73). Few would doubt that this crew has an outstanding ‘pen. We noticed as a lot in 4 1/3 scoreless innings from Cade Smith, Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, and Emmanuel Clase on Saturday. Nonetheless, that doesn’t imply Cleveland’s bullpen hasn’t been the recipient of fine fortune. The Guardians gained 92 video games in 2024 as a result of their relievers put up the best bullpen successful share of any crew since 1976. The slightest slip-up from the arm barn may spell catastrophe.

So no, this isn’t a rom-com. The characters aren’t archetypes. Their story hasn’t been predictable. The ultimate act hasn’t been scripted but. And as a lot as I like romance, Kate Hudson, and a very good, protected consolation watch, I’m wanting ahead to Matthew Boyd’s first-ever playoff begin much more.