| 12:04 |
: Good morning from Tempe, the place it’s someway nonetheless 100 levels every single day. I’ve bought an instructs sport in the present day at 11 so we’ll hold in the present day’s chat fairly tight to the hour so I can prep my gear and drive there. I’ve a cat draped over one forearm proper now, this can be a very fashionable chat.
|
| 12:04 |
: All the time recognize that chats, Eric! SD system has thinned fairly a bit, who’s the following potential dude behind De Vries
|
| 12:05 |
: I feel Humberto Cruz has a shot to be an enormous deal. Tremendous easy and projectable, might have premium command and a pair plus pitches.
|
| 12:06 |
: Feels like he’s been shut down for the 12 months, however the HS children from the draft class throw this weekend right here in AZ so I’m hoping to see Mayfield then. He may be a solution to your query.
|
| 12:06 |
: how a lot does TJ knock Christian Scott down, FV-wise and future role-wise?
|
| 12:06 |
: Nonetheless suppose he’ll begin and be a mid-rotation man (supplied the rehab goes nicely, and many others.).
|
| 12:06 |
: Robust timing, although.
|
| 12:07 |
: What do you consider Jaden Hamm after his first full season? Do you agree with BA that he ought to transfer into the High 100?
|
| 12:09 |
: Tremendous fascinating man. Fifth rounder out of Center Tennessee final 12 months. Vert slot man with enormous fastball carry (like 21″ IVB)….
|
| 12:10 |
: A part of why that quantity is so excessive is due to his launch peak, which is increased than common. Do I feel he’s a High 100 man, i.e. does he have mid-rotation projection?…
|
| 12:11 |
: I feel fastball playability is an enormous deal and this man has that for positive. He’s misleading, he’s throwing strikes though his arm swing is fairly lengthy, and several other of the Twins pitchers present nice examples of how fastball playability can carry your profile. Hamm’s secondary pitches don’t look as nasty as their efficiency stats (like miss charges and stuff) make them look on a spreadsheet….
|
| 12:12 |
: i do suppose to some extent he’s residing off deception versus low minors hitters and his secondary stuff will likely be stress examined as he climbs…
|
| 12:12 |
: Not loopy to 100 him, however I really feel snug taking one other few weeks to decide to a grade for him.
|
| 12:12 |
: Are there any gamers you’re significantly excited to see within the AFL, both since you suppose it’ll present their enhancements or assist you to hone your opinion?
|
| 12:15 |
: So many. Can Henry Bolte hit? How will Zyhir Hope take care of taking part in guys a number of years older than him? The place do Gino Groover and Jett Williams play protection? and many others
|
| 12:16 |
: who’s rebuild do you want extra: The Nats or Pirates?
|
| 12:16 |
: Washington, largely as a result of Pittsburgh hasn’t had a Soto to commerce
|
| 12:16 |
: Why do the Padres have the next likelihood of successful the WS than the Dodgers on the playoff odds even with Dodgers clinching the division?
|
| 12:17 |
: Good query, I suppose it considers the standard of their workforce to be superior? I feel the Dodgers are extremely susceptible and if I have been placing my thumb on the size I’d say they’re a greater WS guess, too.
|
| 12:18 |
: Can Ben Rice hit sufficient for 1b? Not less than robust facet platoon?
|
| 12:20 |
: Not in an on a regular basis capability, I don’t suppose he’s the long run reply to changing an growing older Rizzo or something like that. I’ve a bench weapon grade on him. Guys with that a lot energy from the left facet are helpful, however at his age the window for that’s going to be slim. Excessive finish consequence he finally ends up being a 40 (like a Luke Voit kind of peak with all these Okay’s) for a pair years.
|
| 12:21 |
: Not saying this is applicable to you, Rico however a variety of Yankees followers get bought by the way in which their minor league hitters have carried out at Trenton/Somerset and Scranton. Bear in mind Diego Castillo‘s numbers? Hoy Park‘s numbers? Estevan Florial‘s numbers? Gotta make this adjustment, Yankees web.
|
| 12:22 |
: On a macro degree, what are among the principal belongings you search for when scouting the AFL? How does it differ from scouting the minors?
|
| 12:23 |
: There’s extra of a possibility to scout make-up whenever you see them identical guys for six consecutive weeks. However there have been instances I’ve been burned by that. Kyle Tucker didn’t appear like he cared to be right here in any respect, for example. Some guys are gassed. The context of the look is certainly totally different than sitting on a collection in Might…
|
| 12:25 |
: Others specifics of my AFL strategy: Go see the horny, well-known pitchers asap in case one thing occurs and so they get shut down. Prioritize west valley groups coming east, SRF typically loses the tiebreaker as the place I am going as a result of that stadium generates information i can entry even when i’m not there…
|
| 12:25 |
: Hello Eric, what’s your ideas on Luis Merejo? Good efficiency in ACL and Lynchburg with fairly excessive EVs this 12 months.
|
| 12:26 |
: Hit device has been fairly suss in my appears to be like. Fuky, lengthy swing that I purchase might turn out to be extra conventional wanting as Merejo matures and shortens up.
|
| 12:26 |
: Do you suppose given Polanco’s efficiency this 12 months that the Mariners will begin with Cole Younger at second?
|
| 12:27 |
: I feel he if rakes in he AFL he’ll be tee’d up for that, sure. Polanco seemed fairly ragged on either side of the ball for a lot of the 12 months. Glad he’s gotten a couple of center/center errors to crush right here the final couple weeks.
|
| 12:27 |
: What, if something, does a loopy MLB sizzling streak for a disappointing however younger prospect like Luisangel Acuna imply to your evaluatioin?
|
| 12:29 |
: I feel in Luiangel’s case it continues his career-long development of working sizzling/chilly. I noticed him in August and I believed he seemed higher than his numbers. He’s gonna be a superb utility man. I don’t suppose he’s a star.
|
| 12:30 |
: Do you suppose there’s a systemic overrating of Dodgers pitching prospects? They appear to all throw laborious after which break. What was the final prospect that was truly developed by them right into a profitable massive leaguer?
|
| 12:32 |
: Uhhh I’m unsure they break at a fee any worse than the remainder of the league, ya know? I really feel assured saying their guys within the minors are inclined to get higher, are inclined to throw tougher and enhance their changeups in a profound means. I see what you’re saying a couple of lack of homegrown guys however you’ll be able to’ ignor them having the fellows to commerce for Mookie or whoever else, which they’ve accomplished a ton of. I additionally suppose we must always give he Miller/Stone/Wrobo/Knack/Edgardo, and many others group longer to air out…
|
| 12:33 |
: Article on the Athletic in the present day in regards to the Cardinals and the latest downturn of their capacity to supply high quality, homegrown supporting main leaguers, which is principally attributed to an under-resourced dev division. Do you will have any further info to share there – are they doing one thing actually unsuitable, or is that this only a case of taking some dangers on younger guys with questions (Gorman, Walker) after which not having these guys work out simply but? I suppose their behavior of buying and selling away good outfielders for little or no doesn’t assist.
|
| 12:37 |
: I haven’t but learn that simply but. Remember the fact that from residing in AZ and most frequently visiting the Gulf Coast after I go to FL that the Cardinals day after day Dev ops are as a lot of a black field to me as any org’s. On paper they don’t coax excessive finish stuff out of their pitchers. They draft a variety of generic guys like McGreevy, who’s high-quality however has a low ceiling. Their total employees is comprised of men like that. They’ve completely failed at triaging outfielders however I’ve additionally favored the fellows they’ve (Walker, V Scott) who haven’t hit nicely.
|
| 12:37 |
: Ideas on the potential NCAA D1 scholarship improve / roster discount? With that and NIL, will this result in MLB farmining out improvement to the universities?
|
| 12:37 |
: Sure, I consider that’s a purpose of the league.
|
| 12:37 |
: thanks for chatting this morning what do you suppose the Mariners paln is for Harry Ford? Do they begin getting him reps within the outfield subsequent 12 months with a watch in the direction of being an element time catcher in 2026?
|
| 12:39 |
: I feel we see OF reps simply in case issues play out in the way in which you describe circa ’26, however his affect is best as a catcher and I feel it’s extra seemingly he will get dealt than I do him changing into like a Varsho kind in SEA.
|
| 12:39 |
: How did Bleday flip it round?
|
| 12:40 |
: I suppose I’m hesitant to say he has accomplished so in a everlasting means. However I haven’t dug into that one. I might proper now nevertheless it’d take a lot of the remaining 20 minutes of chat…
|
| 12:40 |
: Approach means means much less fastball swing and miss this 12 months
|
| 12:41 |
: IDK if he made a mechanical adjustment or something to get there however that’s an enormous factor at first look
|
| 12:41 |
: who else in baseball/prospect writing do you comply with/learn?
|
| 12:42 |
: I’ve largely stopped. I consider groupthink is a profound problem in our area of interest trade and social media made/makes it worse. If I get married once more Kiley is perhaps in my wedding ceremony social gathering however I absolutely dgaf what he thinks about Sal Stewart.
|
| 12:43 |
: Do you will have any insights on the worldwide signing prospects?
|
| 12:45 |
: Proper now I’ve a couple of dozen “Participant X is linked to Workforce Y for $Z in 202Whatever” for giant cash dudes the following three years or so.
|
| 12:45 |
: much less reviews on these gamers although
|
| 12:45 |
: Alright, I’m in all probability not going to make use of Craig Yoho or Jacob Misiorowski within the postseason … however does 1, each, or neither make the Opening Day roster subsequent 12 months?
|
| 12:46 |
: Simply because the way in which 40 man roster dynamics are inclined to affect resolution making: Neither
|
| 12:46 |
: Don’t roster them till accidents pressure you to.
|
| 12:46 |
: Do you suppose Kristian Campbell has star upside or is he extra of a surefire common kind?
|
| 12:47 |
: Have I gone from excessive man to low man on him in like 2 months? His swing is fairly bizarre. I feel he requires extra deep, deep evaluation in opposition to upper-level stuff to say both of these.
|
| 12:47 |
: What do you make of the efficiency by Kumar Rocker this 12 months? What do you see going ahead for him?
|
| 12:48 |
: Fairly small pattern of well being, I’d be hesitant to change my forecast a ton. we’ve been right here earlier than, this man has fastball playability points and a really lengthy monitor document of harm and I’m cautious to not overreact
|
| 12:49 |
: does the highest prospect panorama really feel quick on expertise to you? it reads just like the writeups and profiles for many top10-25 vary prospects really feel like they need to be positioned half a grade decrease (xavier isaac and marcelo mayer come to thoughts, each have appreciable offensive warts and athletic / pace limitations).
|
| 12:49 |
: Sure, I agree with this
|
| 12:49 |
: What do you make of the season that Xavier Issac had at AA given his High 100 rank at #6 and does reps at RF affect your projection in any respect?
|
| 12:50 |
: I feel he’s going to have silly energy and be an actual pressure regardless of elevated strikeouts. His physique appears to be like means, means higher now than at another time as a prospect and it wouldn’t shock me if he’s cellular sufficient to develop in RF.
|
| 12:50 |
: hello Eric, simply wished to say thanks for holding this chat. We miss you!
|
| 12:51 |
: I’m again now, Travis and I’ve been engaged on 2025 draft stuff and that ought to be absolutely baked quickly. Then I’ll do Worldwide gamers after which begin lists once more. I anticipate beginning with an East Valley cluster of orgs after which doing your complete Gulf Coast of Florida.
|
| 12:52 |
: has Charlie Condon’s putrid professional debut confirmed any of the troubles you had about him pre draft? Or is it simply too early to guage
|
| 12:53 |
: Too early. Bat seemed gradual in Spokane, although. Assume I’ll see him in the present day. The man’s had a protracted 12 months. Regardless that I used to be skeptical pre-draft I’m attempting to be disciplined and never flag plant on him sucking simply because he has for a pair weeks.
|
| 12:53 |
: Nothing so that you can reply right here Eric simply wished to say how a lot I recognize these and have for years regardless of how seldom you will have the time to do them.
|
| 12:53 |
: They’re formally again on the weekly docket y’all.
|
| 12:53 |
: Does Baldelli survive this collapse? Will the homeowners pressure them to deal Lopez?
|
| 12:54 |
: I can’t communicate to the latter however issues felt unhealthy sufficient right here on the finish that I do fear a head might want to roll.
|
| 12:54 |
: Did you get any appears to be like at Angel Cepeda for the ACL Cubs this 12 months?
|
| 12:54 |
: Sure, simply okay in my appears to be like however beloved by a number of of my sources.
|
| 12:55 |
: When you needed to guess, how a lot overlap is there between the individuals you supply from and the individuals different websites like BA supply from?
|
| 12:58 |
: Reasonable? I positively know of a number of particular person individuals who affect each. I’d guess I’m much less seemingly to offer weight to an org’s farm director’s ideas on his personal membership than Pipeline/BA, simply an excessive amount of bias and I’m not excited about that. Would somewhat put my very own stamp on it.
|
| 12:58 |
: ideas on Lawrence Butler going ahead as an above common participant and fantasy asset?
|
| 12:59 |
: He’s a superb little participant, gamer kind with really feel to hit. restricted bodily instruments. Let’s see how robust he can get.
|
| 12:59 |
: I’m studying Future Worth now, it’s a superb primer to understanding how orgs work their farms – should you might make updates in a second version, what would you alter or add?
|
| 12:59 |
: Extra on visible machine studying and the mixing of biomechanics and video evaluation.
|
| 1:00 |
: Plus ideas on all of the adjustments to varsity athletics
|
| 1:00 |
: our world actually does change quite a bit, very quick, on a regular basis
|
| 1:01 |
: I’m gonna attempt to machine gun through a handful earlier than I cut up…
|
| 1:01 |
: Nice questions this week, btw
|
| 1:02 |
: a lot of good ones I received’t be capable to get to, questions on KBO gamers and Aiva Arquette and every thing.
|
| 1:02 |
: Any new ideas on Vientos? Both at 3B or offensively?
|
| 1:03 |
: Guys like him are typically unstable 12 months to 12 months. I’m glad he’s doing nicely however should you advised me he was going to have a tough ’25 I’d consider you.
|
| 1:03 |
: Do all groups nonetheless use the FV scale? Or have some moved on to totally different analysis strategies?
|
| 1:04 |
: Some groups use 20-80 scale however not fairly in the identical means as I exploit FV, typically placing a extra ceiling-based grade on a man. Some groups use a scale like this:
A1, A2 B1, B2 C1, C2 D1…you get the thought. |
| 1:05 |
: The place like a C1 is my 45, a B1 is my 55, really feel me?
|
| 1:05 |
: What do the A’s do with their glut of largely again of the rotation starters (Sears, Estes, Bido, Spence, Ginn, Harris, Muller, Basso, Hoglund)?
|
| 1:05 |
: I feel you keep as lots of them as potential and make spring ’25 choices based mostly on maximizing retentions and possibility years.
|
| 1:06 |
: Muller prob a ‘pen man, Harris on the bubble, I gotta verify in on Hoglund. Remainder of the fellows are comfortably in my combine if I’m them.
|
| 1:06 |
: Will I be a legit mlb starter or bench piece at greatest?
|
| 1:06 |
: Are you able to play extra than simply 2B?
|
| 1:06 |
: Bueno
|
| 1:07 |
: You talked about zyhir hope earlier do you will have another ideas on him trigger he wasn’t even within the others of observe in your dodgers listing? sorry if this comes throughout poorly by no means accomplished this earlier than
|
| 1:08 |
: No worries, I revealed the Dodgers listing earlier than they traded for him after which he was harm after I noticed the Rancho children throughout the spring. He’s simply lacking, that’s a failure to replace on my half.
|
| 1:08 |
: Yet one more massive offseason for the Reds. How would you proceed given the potential logjam within the infield and the plain want for an enormous bat within the OF? Would you be snug shifting say Arroyo, Collier, and/or Stewart for the suitable bat?
|
| 1:09 |
: I’d be snug shifting the 2 nook guys you talked about greater than Arroyo. Stewart particularly I really feel like will likely be overvalued by groups who closely weigh his information (which is superb)..
|
| 1:09 |
: What will we make of Ethan Salas‘ 12 months? Ceiling has been diminished or is making a ton of mechanical changes, what say you?
|
| 1:09 |
: I’ll finish on this one…
|
| 1:10 |
: .234/.322/.306
|
| 1:11 |
: That’s Aldey Rutchsman’s freshman line at Oregon. He was 19. Salas, who’s at Excessive-A, turns 19 subsequent June I feel. I’m being affected person.
|
| 1:12 |
: okay everybody, please come again with me at Midday ET subsequent Friday for an additional chat. Thanks a lot to your questions in the present day and for studying and supporting the location.
|
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and presently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent 4 years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Information Options and two contributing to prospect protection at ESPN.com. Earlier work will also be discovered at Sports activities On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.