Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/10/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

171: The Orioles… woof. I haven’t been in a position to make myself be serious about watching this crew in weeks. Do you suppose that there must be managerial/teaching modifications made to treatment no matter trigger these final 3 months to occur?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, it looks as if it’s time for the Orioles to be the AL East crew with an amazing document who everybody thinks is horrible

Ben Clemens: Keep in mind the halcyon days of per week and a half in the past when everybody stated the Yankees have been a under .500 crew who wouldn’t sniff the playoffs?

Ben Clemens: these have been enjoyable

Ben Clemens: The O’s are nice, c’mon

Not AJ Preller: Contracts apart, who would you quite have for the subsequent 5 years: JRod, Carroll, or Chourio?

Ben Clemens: I believe I’d take JRod

Ben Clemens: However there aren’t any unsuitable solutions, imo

DeeBo: It’s a small pattern, I do know, however is there something from Connor Norby’s present scorching streak that makes you suppose the prospect reviews might need undersold him a bit? He’s hit all over the place he’s been and appears like a really stable piece for the M’s going ahead

Ben Clemens: Ehhhhh…. I like Norby, however I don’t suppose his current string of success is altering my view a lot

Ben Clemens: he’s hanging out a 3rd of the time, and I don’t suppose he’s gonna hold posting a .300 ISO

Ben Clemens: I’m mainly in the identical place the place I used to be earlier than this scorching streak – intriguing participant, appreciated the commerce for the Marlins, not prepared to vary my priors

Bob: Which two would you retain for fantasy baseball amongst Elly De La Cruz, Kyle Tucker, Jarren Duran and Paul Skenes?

Ben Clemens: I believe Skenes and Elly? Man, I don’t know

Ben Clemens: good downside to have, relies on keeper costs and all

Ben Clemens: I’m positively fearful about Tucker’s damage for this 12 months, however I believe in the long run it’ll be simply nice

Oaktown Blues: Hello Ben! On July 8, you wrote about Brent Rooker’s success constructed on not being afraid to rack up the Ks so long as he retains hitting it laborious. Since your article, Rooker has a 194 wRC+ and a 22.6% Ok price (217 PAs). Do you suppose he unlocked one other gear? Or simply an prolonged scorching streak for a man who was already fairly rattling good?

Ben Clemens: I’m somehwere between these two. I thought of writing about Rooker once more however to be sincere, I already write in regards to the A’s loads 🙂

Ben Clemens: SO I assumed I’d give it a relaxation and possibly let another person take it

Down by the River Ryan: I’m certain it’s automated and as a result of entire indy ball factor, however Kumar Rocker being listed as No College regardless of famously going to Vanderbilt appears odd.

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, positively automated, however I”ll point out it

GA Blood: Nasim Nunez’s season makes me unhappy. I don’t perceive it within the context of the Nationals’ season. All season on the roster, 36 video games performed, 38 plate appearances. 141 wRC+. What was the purpose, actually?

Ben Clemens: I’ve been attempting to write down about this for some time now

Ben Clemens: I can’t fairly discover an angle that works

Ben Clemens: for what number of days he’s been on the roster, he’s mainly simply by no means enjoying

Ben Clemens: That stated, I gave it up when the Nats began letting him play the occasional full recreation in August

Ben Clemens: He’s now solely a sort of fascinating outlier — he has 17 PA previously month, and he solely had 14 in the whole first half of the season

Sean: Do you suppose Dipoto ought to lose his job if the M’s miss the playoffs with that beginning employees?  He’s executed an amazing job constructing the farm, and the pitching employees, however are his roster selections holding the M’s again at this level?

Sodo Mojo: I’m torn in regards to the Mariners retaining Dipoto for an additional 12 months.  On one hand I believe he’s not one of the best GM to steer the groups ahead and there different higher choices who would gladly take the job although possession appears ambivalent about profitable. However that very same possession group employed Invoice Bavasi and Jack Zduriencik each of whom have been unmitigated disasters.  What ought to I believe as a Mariners fan?

Ben Clemens: I typed up after which deleted just a few attainable solutions right here

Ben Clemens: I’m actually divided right here

Ben Clemens: I really feel like the primary factor holding the Mariners again is the whole organizational construction; possession doesn’t need to spend, and that view permeates downward

Ben Clemens: however letting Dipoto off the hook for placing that view into follow doesn’t really feel fairly proper

Ben Clemens: I believe I’d most likely give him one other 12 months towards my higher judgment, but it surely’s a extremely robust one

Tom A.: Do outcomes on a 3-2 rely differ relying if the rely began 0-2 or 3-2?  I’ve all the time been fascinated by this.  My feeling is that the batter has the relative benefit in each of those circumstances, however the pitcher in different circumstances.

Ben Clemens: I’m really within the means of investigating this, or at the least the overall case of this

Ben Clemens: Right here’s a word I took down at Saber Seminar: “rely not modeled effectively by Markov Chain??? examine”

Ben Clemens: somebody talked about that sort of off hand and I’ve been inquisitive about it ever since

laughingstock: Why are stolen bases all the time assigned +0.2 runs of worth within the calculation of WAR, no matter period, scenario, and even which base you steal? I’ve by no means understood the reasoning there of not calculating the worth depending on the base-out state and run scoring surroundings, like is finished with the worth of caught stealing

Ben Clemens: it’s an amazing query that has to do with the best way wOBA is calculated, and I utterly don’t perceive it

Ben Clemens: One other factor we talked about at saber seminar

2025: Which of those guys do you suppose will have the ability to repeat their success subsequent season: Houck, R Lopez, Schwellenbach

Ben Clemens: I believe I is perhaps most in on Lopez, which feels bizarre to say

Ben Clemens: b/c I actually didn’t suppose he’d play as a starter

Ben Clemens: I used to be simply approach off on a whole lot of these starter conversions, to be honest

Fernando Ludwick Jr: Is the NL wildcard race essentially the most thrilling years?  Can’t keep in mind a race this tight….hope it bodes effectively for baseball on the whole.

Ben Clemens: I’m having a troublesome time considering of 1 I personally loved extra since 2020

Ben Clemens: The Giants/Dodgers division race in 2021 was superior however that’s not wild card

Gotham: Are the times of Cashman getting a cross over? The Dominguez / Verdugo conundrum apart, if he can’t signal Soto, what’s the top path ahead? Choose and Cole value a ton of cash, the farm system stinks, and outdoors of Wells there have been only a few nice surprises this 12 months…

Ben Clemens: I imply… the Yankees are good! They’ve a whole lot of good gamers, they usually have one of the best document within the AL

Ben Clemens: for what it’s price, our most up-to-date replace has their farm system eleventh in baseball

Ben Clemens: I do love that now Yankees and O’s followers now need to burn all the things to the bottom on the identical time

Ben Clemens: they’re out-disappointing one another

James: Are you aware of any option to get stats on examine swings? My speculation is that umpires are much less more likely to name strikes when a batter checks his swing, even when it’s a strike, however I’ve by no means seen anybody analysis that

Ben Clemens: Sadly no. I’ve been serious about researching this precise query for some time, however the information simply doesn’t exist

Ben Clemens: I ponder if bat monitoring goes to make it attainable

Liam: Hey Ben! I’m inquisitive about your technical chops and instruments you employ – I need to change into slightly extra savvy there, and was questioning while you speak about working your monte carlo sims and different projections, is that executed in python? r? and did you be taught primarily by tinkering?

Ben Clemens: Oh certain. That’s all executed in Python, however R may truthfully be higher

Ben Clemens: I simply began with Python and it really works for my functions

Ben Clemens: I take advantage of that and SQL pretty usually, SQL as a result of we now have a FanGraphs database and I would like to question it in clever methods. I discovered first largely by tinkering, however I’ll be completely sincere: AI has been an enormous assist in enhancing my abilities not too long ago

Ben Clemens: In the event you’re prepared to interact Gemini (or no matter your most popular LLM is) in a dialog about learn how to code one thing you’re attempting to do, and if you happen to largely perceive the logic behind it, you may go far

Ben Clemens: I’ve gotten MUCH higher at doing complicated calculations or simply tough stuff that isn’t apparent at first look by asking an LLM learn how to do it, discovering the place their directions goes unsuitable, and simply iterating and refining

Refugee: is there a premium premium membership that offers us entry to that SQL database?

Ben Clemens: Ha, I don’t suppose so, however you may positively create your personal from the information downloads that include membership

Ben Clemens: We don’t actually keep a whole lot of the stuff I’m messing with to the excessive customary of high quality we like for official FG stuff

Esix Snead: I discover myself getting burned out from baseball as a result of inundation of metrics and normal laptop optimization.  Really feel like there is no such thing as a “fog of warfare” or mystique as a result of each crew has an identical Trackman and batted ball information.  When each crew has an identical info in a zero-sum recreation, it looks like the one variations in groups are how a lot cash possession is prepared to spend, and the way near-death your proprietor is as to whether or not they’re prepared to eschew future success in favor of a present run.   How do I not really feel jaded by this?

Ben Clemens: That’s positively an actual challenge dealing with baseball at this time

Ben Clemens: i do suppose that groups are doing fascinating and sensible issues round long-term technique, growth, issues like htat

Ben Clemens: but it surely’s not notably seen to us as followers, which makes that much less fascinating

Ben Clemens: The explanation I write 5 issues, and why I have a look at whimsical stuff on the whole, is b/c the quantity of pleasure I get from that hasn’t modified

Ben Clemens: however the quantity of pleasure I get from attempting to determine whether or not the Cardinals are utilizing hte unsuitable fifth starter primarily based on superior metrics has positively declined previously decade

Oddball Herrera: In the event you’re bummed that everybody is utilizing analytics, simply keep in mind the Rockies are nonetheless on the market asking why guys can’t hit good in the event that they’re such good hitters

Ben Clemens: It’s an amazing query

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Ideas on the US Open finals? Sabalenka is superb, I like how she goes full throttle on each shot. On the boys’s aspect, what do you concentrate on the aptly named Sinner’s failed take a look at?

Ben Clemens: Love Sabalenka, and I utterly agree, her model is actually enjoyable. I believe it additionally results in nice matches b/c when she’s off she simply will get boat raced, which retains issues shut

Ben Clemens: I suppose I’m okay with Sinner attending to nonetheless play, it looks as if a foolish factor to get suspended over on the concentrations he had. That stated, it does really feel like particular therapy, possibly everybody ought to get the good thing about the doubt like him

Ben Clemens: I like watching him play, although. It’s wild how he will get a lot energy into his photographs, it looks like he’s utilizing each single inch of his physique to take action

New GM: I’m wanting on the free company lessons within the subsequent couple years after this one and there’s not a ton of place gamers on the prime of the market after Kyle Tucker, who might or might not even make it to FA, and Vlad who’s place restricted.  Might we see spending this offseason inflated as a consequence of that or do most groups not look forward?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, to not give an excessive amount of away, however I’m attempting to mannequin for this slightly bit in my free company predictions this 12 months

Ben Clemens: I believe that groups positively do spend for one winter with the subsequent winter’s fallback choices in thoughts

Ben Clemens: there’s all the time a whole lot of uncertainty, however I believe it’d be sensible to be barely extra aggressive this winter

Nate: Is there a cut up on the web site for when the infield is drawn? I do know there are splits for when there’s a shift on, however curious if drawn-in infield is there someplace as effectively

Ben Clemens: no, however you may possibly piece one collectively from statcast information about infielder depth

Ben Clemens: I’m positively curious, seems like possibly one thing for later within the month

Sam: Do you suppose there’s an answer to the quantity of groupthink that appears to permeate most MLB entrance workplaces (not counting the Rockies) and the way it homogenizes the sport?

Ben Clemens: Probably not? I believe that’s only a aspect impact of the interconnected world we stay in

Ben Clemens: Like, identify an business the place this isn’t an issue

Ben Clemens: the world is massively extra linked now than it has ever been, naturally groupthink is on the rise

Insert Witty Identify Right here: What books do you’ve gotten lined up after the baseball season is over?

Ben Clemens: first on the listing is Alien Clay (which I imagine isn’t even out within the US but) for a guide membership

Ben Clemens: I simply obtained my library card hooked as much as my e-reader, which has been a recreation changer

Ben Clemens: since then I’ve learn The Fury (good), 9 Lives (meh), Fourth Wing (unhealthy), The Nice Practice Theft (a basic)

Ben Clemens: occurring trip subsequent week, so I’m gonna juice up the e reader much more

Oddball Herrera: Alien Clay primarily based on the identify seems like a sequel to Chubby Rain

Okra: The O’s hold enjoying Emmanual Rivera and Nick Maton over Mayo.  Rivera has been DFA twice this 12 months and Maton thrice.  I don’t get it.  In the event that they don’t belief Mayo why didn’t they money him in on the deadline?

Ben Clemens: I’m very confused by that conduct too

Ben Clemens: I ponder if Holliday’s struggles are in some way messing with their confidence in enjoying minor leaguers

James: Is Verlander simply out of types from the accidents, or is he cooked? I don’t see a lot hope for this 12 months however is that this the tip for good

Ben Clemens: Clearly I can’t say for sure, however I’ll say this:

Ben Clemens: I believe that the chances that it’s over are fairly excessive, greater than 50%

Ben Clemens: ‘over’ as in he’s by no means a real expertise prime 3 starter once more

Ben Clemens: prime 3 on the crew, not prime 3 in baseball

Ben Clemens: laborious to foretell when pitchers will lose effectiveness, and possibly he can simply discover some new adjustment to make it hold working, however I kinda suppose that is what decline appears like

Dan: Do you suppose there’s a entrance workplace equal to peak Mike Trout, does almost all the things very effectively; all time nice; the distinction between his crew being common and a dumpster hearth and we simply don’t know as a result of it’s too laborious to measure or is the expertise degree of the entrance workplace personnel too flat for that comparability?

Ben Clemens: My guess is the second, that there’s simply not that a lot expertise hole

Ben Clemens: That stated, the primary is unquestionably true: we wouldn’t have the instruments to measure this effectively, so I’m undecided of my reply

Saint Lou: Will Ivan Herrera ever get an opportunity to play full time? I don’t perceive the reluctancy to play him extra.

Ben Clemens: I believe that this boils all the way down to the group’s long-running obsession with catcher protection

Ben Clemens: Having Yadi for 20 years or so actually messes along with your head, you realize?

Ben Clemens: That’s the way you get the pitching employees having a bizarre mini-revolt towards superb catcher Willson Contreras

Ben Clemens: and Pedro Pages getting prolonged run regardless of positively not being an amazing main league hitter

Ben Clemens: I believe that there’s simply an organizational expectation that the one who catches will probably be an ultra-premium defender who does all the things and in addition is a pitcher whisperer, and that’s been robust on Herrera, who shouldn’t be that, regardless of being an excellent participant

Dan: I keep in mind studying preseason previews within the early 90s and there was all the time at the least one which predicted my crew can be on the earth collection. Now that I (and the media) perceive statistics higher and what makes profitable baseball is healthier understood it’s loads tougher to delude myself when my crew is unhealthy.

Ben Clemens: Yep, completely agree with this

Ben Clemens: a greater understanding of what results in success in baseball positively decreases uncertainty

Zach: I’m curious to listen to about your expertise with how LLMs have affected your job/life. I do know you simply talked about it when it comes to coding, however how usually do you employ it, are you enthusiastic about future iterations, and so on.?

Ben Clemens: I primarily use it for work

Ben Clemens: I suppose I like its sorting of cooking/recipe outcomes higher than wanting via the depressing right here’s a narrative about my life earlier than the recipe model blogs

Brad: Ben…is it me or does Spencer Horwitz appear to be he might be an above common hitter?  I’ve seen him go the opposite approach and in addition drop the bat head and pull the ball.   The place do you see his place sooner or later?

Ben Clemens: I may completely see it

Ben Clemens: I used to be looking for one thing to write down about for this week and ALMOST landed on Horwitz

Ben Clemens: I’d nonetheless earlier than lengthy

Ben Clemens: it doesn’t look pretend, and the minor league numbers look actual

Ben Clemens: I believe that he’s gonna be a positionless wanderer defensively, although

Sanford: Juan Soto is youthful than 16 of the highest 35 rookies (45%) by fWAR this 12 months. That’s all

Dan: Cooking with a LLM is enjoyable as a result of you may’t be 100% sure it didn’t hallucinate the recipe. Effectively possibly an skilled chef can however not me

Ben Clemens: I believe that’s a part of the enjoyable

Ben Clemens: I attempt a whole lot of bizarre mixtures as it’s

Adam: Is DJ Herz something?

Ben Clemens: I’m attempting to reply this precise query for a pal of mine who’s an enormous Nats fan

Ben Clemens: I believe sure? However I don’t have a superbly reasoned opinion simply but

Adam: Do you’ve gotten an inside heuristic for the relative significance of the elements of catcher protection?  I.e. what % is framing vs. blocking vs. throwing out baserunners?

Ben Clemens: HEre’s a method of it

Ben Clemens: the worst blocker this 12 months, per Statcast, is Shea Langeliers at -6, finest is six gamers at +3. Nobody else is worse than -3. So 9 run hole. The run recreation hole is 12 runs (Will Smith +7, Yasmani Grandal -5). The framing hole is 25 runs (Patrick Bailey +16, Yainer Diaz -9)

Ben Clemens: in order that’s the order, and framing is, roughly talking, price as a lot as the opposite two abilities mixed

Ed Kranepool: 12 crew pts league, 9 keepers.  Time to drop 1 of my keepers, Michael Harris?

Ben Clemens: I believe Michael Harris is nice. I might positively not drop him

Ben Clemens: I’m gradual to replace my priors, although

Brett: What’s extra more likely to occur, somebody aside from Ohtani to be in 50/50 membership or somebody aside from Choose hitting greater than 62 HR in your lifetime?

Ben Clemens: I believe 50/50 membership

Ben Clemens: it’s solely been a 12 months since we had a legit contender in Acuna

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Naming youngsters are laborious.  I as soon as thought of naming it after my favourite baseball participant, but it surely didn’t fairly sound correct.  In the event you needed to identify your future son after an enormous leaguer, who wouldn’t it be?

Ben Clemens: I don’t suppose we’ll do that, however Curtis Granderson

Ben Clemens: nice participant, nice man, and I occur to love the identify

Adam: Are we on the level the place, push come to shove, the Dodgers would simply make use of bullpen video games within the playoffs quite than throw Buehler or Miller on the market?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I believe they need to make use of bullpen video games with these guys as a part of the plan

Jared: Which of those rookies do you suppose can have one of the best profession? Holliday, Chourio, Merrill, or Langford?

Ben Clemens: Gimme Chourio

Ben Clemens: I might have stated Merrill a month in the past, so I’ve these shut

Ben Clemens: I’m down on Holliday

Ben Clemens: so I’d go Chourio Merril (tier hole) Langford (mini tier hole) Holliday

Mark Seaman: Rangers pitching may not suck subsequent season. The offense wasn’t nice this 12 months, do they simply hope the younger guys determine it out?

Ben Clemens: they nonetheless venture effectively, I believe

Ben Clemens: loads of good choices, Carter will hopefully be again and higher

Ben Clemens: hope that Adolis Garcia is a median to barely above common hitter as a substitute of a tire hearth

Ben Clemens: I’ve been donw on the Rangers for some time, although. I believe certainly one of my ‘daring predictions’ for the 12 months was that the Rangers would miss the playoffs and end under .500

Ben Clemens: They’ve been mild on depth for some time now

Ben Clemens: and when issues don’t hit proper, it’s ugly

ResumeMan: Oakland within the postseason!*

(*Ballers, that’s)

hopeful champion: would you begin Bido tonight towards the astros? even with him pitching in reduction the opposite day?

Ben Clemens: Yeesh, I believe no, however I don’t have a powerful lean both approach

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Once I consider Curtis Granderson, all I consider is that industrial on repeat that stored mentioning his dad and mom have been lecturers.  Additionally I believe I requested this to you years in the past as a result of I keep in mind considering Curtis Carl Clemens can be a humorous identify.

Ben Clemens: I don’t do not forget that quesiton – however look, I actually like Granderson

DeeBo: What do you suppose the temper contained in the White Sox clubhouse is true now? Numerous younger guys attempting to show themselves, however among the many veterans it have to be fairly depressing

Ben Clemens: oh yeah I believe it’s most likely largely terrible

Ben Clemens: it’s simply NOT enjoyable to lose so usually in something

Guardcore Clevelander: Not a lot as query as an remark. The Royals have a weak outfield, a powerful rotation, and no bullpen, with their finest participant being a center infielder. The Guardians have a number of All-Stars who can play the outfield, a struggling rotation, an elite bullpen, and their finest infielder is at third base. It’s just like the 2015 Royals and 2018 Guardians swapped roles.

Ben Clemens: That is Andrew Miller erasure, however true in a broad sense

Ben Clemens: It’s positively unusual to see the Royals constructed round a meteoric up-the-middle expertise whereas the Guardians go the pitching and protection route, though I don’t suppose their outfield all stars will final

Sirras: When do the White Sox subsequent have a .500 season?

Ben Clemens: Uh…. yikes

Ben Clemens: I really feel like they’ve it in them to show it round quickly

Sully: With ~3 weeks left within the season, can I throw any starter in there for Ks and never fear a few blow-up hurting my lead in WHIP?  I’m at 1.063 and 2nd place is at 1.125.

Ben Clemens: let’s say you’re in a 1,400 innings max league. Your lead is 84 walks or hits

Ben Clemens: how a lot of a blowup are we anticipating? I’ve to imagine lower than that

Ben Clemens: so I believe you’re good

Visitor: Who do you suppose will get unnoticed of the NL WC? I do know that you simply wrote an in depth protection of the playoff odds methodology not too long ago, and ARI and SD have very excessive odds; but it surely additionally looks as if both crew may get squeezed out. They don’t have a lot of a lead on NYM and ATL.

Ben Clemens: I believe it’ll be the Mets, although I hope I’m unsuitable b/c this has been a extremely enjoyable crew

Ben Clemens: However truthfully, it looks like a fairly large tossup to me

Ben Clemens: all these odds are actually shut, and I’m DEFINITELY not assured that I’m good at telling a 60% likelihood from a 65% likelihood

Christian: New rule: The possession of the crew with the worst common season document is compelled to promote on the finish of the 12 months.

Ben Clemens: oh sure, let’s do this

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Bizarre hypothetical – would growing the baseball dimension assist scale back the large velo we’re seeing nowdays? Or is that simply too excessive and possibly in 2050?

Ben Clemens: I believe it’d simply be too excessive

Ben Clemens: I’d mess with seams and ball composition approach earlier than doing that

Ben Clemens: Okay, on that word, I’m gonna name it a chat. Stick round for Jay Jaffe’s FanGraphs chat later at this time, banner Tuesday.