Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 8/5/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, let’s get chatting

Ryan: Is Profar on a 1 million greenback deal one of many higher signings of the final decade?

Ben Clemens: Must be, proper?

Ben Clemens: Simply by way of return on funding or no matter, and searching on the outcomes

Ben Clemens: Possibly I’d choose signing Max Scherzer because the Nats or no matter, however Profar simply provides a lot worth

Nic: Ideas on Austin Wells? If this his true hitting and fielding stage, he seems to be like a star? No?

Ben Clemens: Undoubtedly sure

Ben Clemens: Now, it appears unlikely that that is his true stage

Ben Clemens: he’s hitting meaningfully higher on the main league stage than he did within the minors

Ben Clemens: I feel he’ll be a reasonably good defender, in all probability not the perfect within the recreation or something, however fairly good

Appa Yip Yip: Has Vladdy lastly emerged because the Prince Who Was Promised?

Ben Clemens: I feel that was 2021

Ben Clemens: then he received demoted

Ben Clemens: or maybe he abdicated, I’m not fairly certain how royalty works

Ben Clemens: However I feel that you would be able to take a look at Vlad as extra of an elite 1b than you can have final yr

Oaktown Blues: Are you on the Lawrence Butler hype practice?

Ben Clemens: I’m not precisely certain what the long run seems to be like right here

Ben Clemens: however the A’s have finished a very good job of discovering fascinating gamers as they’re kinda unhealthy

Ben Clemens: enormous credit score to them for that

Ben Clemens: I actually like what they’ve finished round getting guys into positions to succeed

Ben Clemens: it makes the overall awfulness of the possession group extra annoying

Ben Clemens: I actually wish to just like the A’s

Talfred: What is going to the ChiSox do with Benintendi after this season? Two straight years of unfavorable WAR as he embarks on his 30s, with three years left on that comtract.

Ben Clemens: I imply, they’ll in all probability simply maintain plyaing him whereas he’s terrible

Colton: Masyn Winn’s enhancements this yr have been nothing wanting unbelievable IMO, particularly when you think about the outcomes from his cup of espresso final season. Do you assume the Cardinals ought to attempt locking him as much as an extension now, much like what the Braves did with Albies and possibly purchase out a yr or two of free company?

Ben Clemens: uh, I don’t assume anybody ought to attempt to do one thing much like what the Braves did with Albies

Ben Clemens: that contract was simply kinda gross and raises inquiries to me about his illustration

Ben Clemens: there are many contracts that profit each crew and participant with out being so egregious

Ben Clemens: that mentioned, I do assume that the Cardinals ought to speak extension with Winn. It appears like there’s only a lot right here to love, by way of each how St. Louis likes to construct groups (protection first, notably up the center) and the way it appears like they actually need a homegrown expertise to stay after loads of idiot’s gold lately

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure what a deal would seem like, that’s in all probability a query for Dan Szymborski and the ZiPS extension prediction machine

Ben Clemens: however this appears like a superb pairing

Phil: Wilyer Abreu has had a terrific yr towards righties and defensively, and at last hit a house run towards a lefty final evening. Do you assume possibly he’s been a little bit underrated by the prospect of us? To me, a superb proper fielder who performs towards all righties and sure types of lefties is a extra precious participant than your typical platoon man, and he’s sustained a roughly 130ish WRC+ lengthy sufficient at this level that I’m skeptical of the projections that also have him at 100-110.

Ben Clemens: I feel that he’s positively underrated

Ben Clemens: that mentioned, the projections do a superb job

Ben Clemens: like, he’s sustained a 130-ish wRC+ for…. 300 PA’s

Ben Clemens: 350 counting final yr

Ben Clemens: and it certain seems to be prefer it’s in a means that feeds rather a lot off of an unsustainable babip

Ben Clemens: like it may be true that he’s underrated and in addition…. effectively I don’t assume he’s gonna maintain slugging .520?

M’s Fan: Is Logan Gilbert underrated at this level?

Ben Clemens: Kinda laborious to determine how he’s typically perceived

Ben Clemens: I feel he’s probably the greatest gamers and most beneficial contract/participant combos in baseball

Ben Clemens: so positively not throughout the recreation. by followers, I’m not 100% certain iether means

Appa Yip Yip: I feel the Acuña and Albies offers broke one thing in loads of followers’ brains as a result of too many individuals have unrealistic expectations about locking up each younger participant on their crew.

Ben Clemens: Yeah I agree with this

Ben Clemens: there are numerous contracts that work for everybody

Ben Clemens: actually the Braves have signed loads of these

Ben Clemens: possibly the Michael Harris II contract is a extra sensible normal

Ben Clemens: whole lot for everybody, he absolutely left cash on the desk, however he traded that for loads of certainty and nobody is simply too unhappy about it

Ben Clemens: these Albies/Acuna offers are simply not taking place anymore. the gamers are conscious that offers like that simply don’t work

Kwanbelievable: Do the Guardians have sufficient beginning pitching to carry on to the first total seed within the AL? I feel the Cobb deal was a stroke of genius, however not sure if it strikes the needle sufficient

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s in all probability just a bit quick

Ben Clemens: which is okay so far as I’m involved

Ben Clemens: I feel they did a very good job of setting the crew up for achievement and in addition working inside themselves given a deadline that didn’t line up notably effectively for them, by way of being starter-needy

Visitor: Reds, Cubs, Nats, Rangers:  All appear to be out of it this season; which crew has the perfect hopes for the playoffs subsequent season?

Ben Clemens: in all probability the Rangers

Ben Clemens: I believed that the sheer quantity of pitching accidents of their projected rotation meant that they’d have bother hitting the playoffs this yr

Ben Clemens: That doesn’t change what I take into consideration their long-term trajectory, although: they’ve a bunch of excellent gamers and a pleasant youth motion, and so they’re gonna spend

Ben Clemens: Additionally they play in a division with the Angels and A’s, neither of whom are going to be nice subsequent yr

Sonny: Leaks about Manfred’s gag order round Oakland consumers appears weird. Didn’t the remainder of the league waive the relocation payment? What’s the level of all of this? Who believes any a part of MLB is healthier for Fishers possession?

Ben Clemens: I feel that making an attempt to determine what’s occurring right here is an efficient solution to drive your self loopy

Ben Clemens: i’ve completely no thought what the league is doing right here and I’m unsure they do both

Ben Clemens: There’s a superb article up at BP about what may truly occur to drive FIsher out, btw

Derek: It’s fairly simple to crap on the Angels, however it truly looks as if they’re in a really bizarre spot. Clearly a perpetually injured Trout is difficult, however they’ve additionally received a pair actual foundational-looking items in O’Hoppe and Neto. Schanuel has been hitting a bit and Rengifo simply looks as if he’s good now. Is their pitching to this point gone that you simply simply commerce all of these guys ASAP and tear it down to start out over? Or is there sufficient there to attempt to go for a fast “reload” or no matter euphemism you favor? How does Trout issue into all this, both wholesome or injured?

Ben Clemens: I feel it relies upon what your aim is

Ben Clemens: in case you’re making an attempt to construct a crew that makes the playoffs over some sustainable period of time, you must blow all of it up

Ben Clemens: tehre’s simply so little occurring within the farm system, and in addition the large league membership is 15 video games under .500 with these good foundational items (I like Neto greater than O’Hoppe however I agree they’re good)

Ben Clemens: We have now them useless final in farm system rankings, and we’re not alone in that. It is smart, they emptied every little thing out final yr making an attempt to make one final run with Mike and Shohei

Ben Clemens: so like, it’s unlikely that issues will enhance organically

Ben Clemens: in case your aim is simply to not be embarrassing whereas Mike Trout is in your crew, I’d in all probability maintain everybody younger and simply attempt to be respectable round him

Ben Clemens: actually relies on what the crew desires to do, however I can not take a look at this roster and basic group and say ‘yep, they’re fairly shut’

bosoxforlife: I wish to give a shout out to George Kirby for his honoring Tim Wakefield with a gap pitch knuckleball in his current begin towards the Purple Sox.

Ben Clemens: Kirby appears actually cool along with being actually good, and this can be a good reminder

Shoeless Joe: Man, how did the White Sox get THIS unhealthy?  Can’t they discover sufficient replacement-level gamers to play, , replacement-level baseball?

Ben Clemens: , shockingly sufficient, all of us type of noticed this coming

Ben Clemens: this offseason I wrote an article particularly about how terrible the White Sox’ depth is

Ben Clemens: we checked out them going into the season after we have been taking a look at new methods of calculating depth and located one thing comparable:

Ben Clemens: mainly the higher minors simply don’t have alternative stage gamers

Ben Clemens: we knew this moving into

Ben Clemens: their higher minors, particularly

Ben Clemens: They’ve had accidents ,they weren’t arrange effectively to deal with them within the first place, and so they’re unhealthy

Ben Clemens: this was truly a foreseeable practice wreck

John B: The comps on baseball reference says Nolan Gorman nonetheless was on a path to seem like Killebrew or Gaetti or Thome.  Ideas ?

Ben Clemens: my ideas are that these comps don’t all the time work that effectively

Ben Clemens: and yeah, I don’t agree with that?

Choose: Choose has virtually caught future HOF Bryce Harper in WAR… and he began 5 years later.

Ben Clemens: It’s outrageous

Ben Clemens: I really feel like nobody can really recognize it when it’s taking place

Ben Clemens: however we’re mainly seeing Barry Bonds 2.0

Jackson Holliday: What are you seeing completely different by me in my second stint?

Ben Clemens: on condition that it’s been 5 video games I haven’t learn rather a lot into it, and to be trustworthy I’ve been watching extra Olympics than baseball up to now week

Ben Clemens: you solely get these as soon as each 4 years, and so forth

Ben Clemens: however man, what a aid for the O’s

C-Low: Do you assume Orioles can come to an extension with Gunnar or has that ship sailed?

Ben Clemens: I’m certain they will, however till they signal a minimum of one extension it’s laborious to know what their plan is

Ben Clemens: so I’m betting towards it for now

John B: If the pirates make the playoffs do you experience Skenes laborious and go for gold ?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s as much as him

Ben Clemens: you’ll be able to’t make him do anytihng he doesn’t wish to

Ben Clemens: however like, I assume he desires to and I assume the crew desires to

birds: If the Orioles supplied the Witt contract to Gunnar you assume he’d take it?

Ben Clemens: I’m unsure. I’d although

Ben Clemens: if I have been him, I imply

Ben Clemens: nice deal for either side with the choose outs, imo

Benjamin, J: What wouldn’t it take for Emmanuel Clase to win and/or deserve the AL Cy Younger?

Ben Clemens: I feel he’d must convert to beginning…

Ben Clemens: I imply, unbelievable yr

Ben Clemens: however not Cy Younger worthy imo

André René Roussimoff: The White Sox being so terrible might have an upside in the event that they use the wretchedness to inventory the system with nice younger gamers for tomorrow à la the Orioles. Is that believable with the present possession and entrance workplace?

Ben Clemens: I feel they’re little question making an attempt to do this

Ben Clemens: let me provide the counterpoint…. we mentioned this in regards to the White Sox in 2016

Ben Clemens: they hit a bunch of trades about in addition to you’ll be able to hit them…. and received all the best way as much as low-end playoff competition

Ben Clemens: now they’re torching all of it once more with worse supporting forged

Ben Clemens: and with not nearly as good gamers as Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Adam Eaton

Ben Clemens: so, I don’t assume that is gonna by some means find yourself higher

Derek: Any Olympic occasions you’ve been notably having fun with?

Ben Clemens: Oh man, I used to be ready for somebody to ask me this query

Ben Clemens: I really like monitor and discipline, the 10k race was completely unbelievable. Archery was actually cool, fencing extra thrilling than I anticipated, a number of the swimming has been nice

Ben Clemens: have you ever seen synchronized diving? I can’t do something remotely in addition to these individuals do the identical factor, collectively

Becoming: Far as I can inform the perfect single season two participant WAR complete since integration is A-Rod and Griffey at 19.1. That is adopted by a bunch of Bonds And Buddy. There’s a fairly stable chane that Choose/Soto beats this, and I actually assume it will be cool given that each one the duos above them performed when the 2 of them couldn’t. (Additionally true of any Griffey or Bonds duo, clearly.)

Ben Clemens: yeah, very cool

Ben Clemens: Michael Baumann’s article final week about this was superior

Invoice: Gotta love Summer time MacIntosh, 17 years previous and three gold medal, if we was in baseball she would have 13 extra nice yr

Ben Clemens: Katie Ledecky having the 20 quickest instances in 1500 free historical past can also be outrageous

Ben Clemens: swimming isj ust cool

bosoxforlife: I do know Bobby Witt and Aaron Choose are nice and entrance runners for the MVP however I merely can’t get sufficient of the continued brilliance of Jose Ramirez. The Guardians don’t have any motive to be the place they’re with out his virtually invisible greatness. Ignore the numbers and I see a participant with each high quality you’d need in a participant together with loyalty to his metropolis.

Ben Clemens: utterly agree

Ben Clemens: I write about him fairly a bit and I all the time really feel mainly that means

Ben Clemens: yearly within the commerce worth collection, a couple of crew individuals will likely be like ‘JRam that top? you certain?’

Ben Clemens: and that i’m like

TheJack20: If Royce is wholesome (massive if) the place does he rank amongst MLB third basemen? After Jose and possibly Bregman I can’t discover many gamers I’d definitively say are higher.

Ben Clemens: I’d choose Austin Riley, Devers, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Westburg. I’d NOT choose Bregman tbh

Okra: I’m actually confused by the route the Rays took on the deadline.  Principally as a result of I feel Yandy Diaz and Brandon Lowe have been higher gamers to commerce away than Paredes given they weren’t solely transferring guys if the return was nice.  What are your ideas?

Ben Clemens: wrote about it final week, I didn’t assume they did a superb job given the targets they have been making an attempt to perform

Derek: I’d prefer to shout out volleyball (indoor, although seaside can also be cool and possibly extra well-liked). Particularly now that they’re into the knockout rounds. The rhythm of buildup of rigidity after which momentary respite is like baseball at 50x velocity

Ben Clemens: indoor provides you a baseball really feel. seaside is extra improvisational, which I kinda like

Ben Clemens: I like that the Olympics are uncommon, I couldn’t deal with all these random sports activities yearly

Ben Clemens: however it’s actually a blast b/c it’s gonna be gone so quickly

Mike Trout: Mike Trout 🙁

Ben Clemens: Couldn’t agree extra

Ben Clemens: simply actually unhappy

Matt: Any feedback on the Phillies current slide?

Ben Clemens: I dunno, they didn’t actually really feel like the perfect crew in baseball to me, and it’s a protracted season

Ben Clemens: nothing feels too loopy, I’m certain they’ll pull out of it

M’s Fan: loads of draft protection posited that m’s decide Cijntje can’t hack it as a lefty even half time due to his stuff (91-92, slurvy slider). Nonetheless the m’s actually presently have lefties on the 40 man and 26 man with comparable stuff (Saucedo). What’s with the scouting confidence right here that Cijntje can’t hack it?

Ben Clemens: loads of it’s that scouts prefer to be assured

Ben Clemens: do you wish to learn ‘in fact, the error bars on this participant are extraordinarily extensive. nobody thought paul skenes was the perfect pitcher in baseball when drafted and it seems he’s, and spencer torkelson can’t hack it within the majors’

Soto: hey I’m actually having my finest season over right here

Ben Clemens: the Yankees are getting these two epic performances, and everyohne else is doing their finest to make them not depend, it’s type of superb to observe

jj: Benintendi has the most important contract in White Sox historical past.  Merely superb

Ben Clemens: No feedback apart from that

Robbie314: Ought to I fear extra in regards to the day by day fluctuations in my retirement account, or the day by day fluctuations in my crew’s playoff likelihood?

Ben Clemens: nice query

Ben Clemens: in all probability retirement account

Ben Clemens: however in all probability don’t fear about both?

Theo be Praised: Is Michael Busch’s manufacturing sustainable?  30+ Ok-rate, doesn’t hit the ball that tough, but has a 127 wRC+….

Ben Clemens: I’m not a giant believer

Ben Clemens: Form of a traditional one, he doesn’t actually strike me a a .350 BABIP true expertise man as a result of he’s not a legendary creature or Ichiro

Ben Clemens: so like… in all probability that received’t maintain taking place

bosoxforlife: Blake Snell has out of the blue grow to be a really fascinating puzzle. He has 1 win however his final 2 begins have been unbelievable. What does he do? Take the choice or attempt free company and what’s going to the GM’s do? This isn’t threat/reward, it’s nearer to success or suicide for the GM’s

Ben Clemens: the remainder of the yr is extra essential right here than in your common participant

Ben Clemens: it actually does monitor that he wasn’t prepared after which received damage immediately so the early-season stats are kinda suspect

Ben Clemens: however then there’s not a TON of pattern since then

Ben Clemens: he seems to be actually good when he’s on, no doub

Ben Clemens: I feel that he’ll find yourself opting out… however I additionally assume that the subsequent two months matter greater than the season to this point on the subject of what he does

Ben (No wait, Matt): Who wins the AL West?  I really feel just like the Astros want Verlander again in a giant means, particularly with the McCullers and Garcia current setbacks…

Ben Clemens: I feel the Mariners are gonna pull it out ultimately

Ben Clemens: that Houston pitching workers is simply…. I’m not seeing it

Ben Clemens: additionally Kyle Tucker is squarely trending in the direction of not taking part in

Visitor: Ideas on the misplaced season from Vauhgn Grisson? Looks like a promising participant and the change of surroundings was good — then inuries.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, injured all yr

Okra: I really feel like Crochet saying he desires an extension earlier than pitching within the playoffs was a giant deal.  1- i feel it tanked his commerce worth and 2- MLB gamers have by no means actually ‘held out’ or made such calls for.  What are your ideas?

Ben Clemens: I’d be shocked if it utterly tanked his commerce worth

Ben Clemens: as a result of I feel a part of the enchantment of getting Crochet is that you would be able to get him to signal a couple of additional years at an affordable price

Ben Clemens: now, possibly he truly had an enormous contract extension demand, that half I’m unsure of

Ben Clemens: however I feel that his demand is affordable given the extraordinary circumstances right here

Ben Clemens: he’s SO far above his earlier profession excessive in innings, and he wouldn’t be accustomed to the medical workers and managerial group of the crew he’s becoming a member of

Ben Clemens: I’d be shocked if this turns into the norm

Okra: Why does nobody even query the two% inflation goal?  It’s taken as gospel however why not 3%?  Or 2.5%?  And wouldn’t everybody somewhat have a job and inflation at 2.8%, somewhat than inflation at 2.2% and no job?  Not fairly that binary however ….

Ben Clemens: ha, enjoyable query and there’s a superb planet cash about this

Ben Clemens: it’s actually type of within the eye of hte beholder. why not 1%, even? the thought was to set a constructive price in order that deflation was much less doubtless however transferring the goal round, possibly even a 1-3% band or whatnot, feels simply as justified by the literature as a static goal

BlueJayMatt: Does Ross Atkins get one other yr or will this season’s utter failure lastly get him fired?

Ben Clemens: I feel that this yr might be gonna do it for him

Yosh Peck: Jarren Duran, nonetheless unhealthy???

Chris: hey, anthony volpe’s high 15 in battle!

Ben Clemens: I really like Purple Sox and Yankees sizzling takes

Doug: How do you see the NL Wild Card shaking out? The Braves going to carry on?

Ben Clemens: I feel the Braves, Mets, and Padres will find yourself in

Juan Soto: The place am I taking part in subsequent yr?

Steve O: That’s a little bit unfair to the opposite Yankees, isn’t it? I imply they’re tied for first place and have a number of different good gamers.

Ben Clemens: haha it’s positively unfair to the opposite Yankees

Ben Clemens: they’re an excellent crew

Ben Clemens: however, when you have got stars THAT starr-y, everybody seems to be worse compared

Ben Clemens: alright, I’ve to run, engaged on an article in regards to the worst pitches of the yr for tomorrow

Ben Clemens: have an awesome one, everybody

Ben Clemens: and watch some olympics!