Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/13/24

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

David: Dan-is there something within the numbers that exhibits what’s incorrect with the Braves proper now? A cursory look makes it look like the metrics of this yr and final yr are relative shut.

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, plenty of hitters are underperforming! Olson, the injured Acuña, and Riley all had distinguished spots within the zstats replace I posted yesterday

Tacoby Bellsbury: What baseball participant archetype corresponds to every of your cats at this stage of their careers?

Dan Szymborski: Oh geez, I’m unsure

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio’s sort of Fernando Rodney-y. Constantine’s sort of moody

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure the way it work although

Tjf167: Are you wanting ahead to the Rickwood Subject recreation?

Dan Szymborski: I feel it ought to be enjoyable. I dig particular occasion video games

Joe: i’ve seen triple slash strains on a pitcher’s particular person pitch- for instance, Chris Sale’s slider .190/.230/.401- and what does the OBP characterize? I can perceive how a single pitch may have an AVG and SLG, however what does OBP imply?

Dan Szymborski: presumably that’s the pitch they stroll on? I don’t see OBP for pitches that usually

Tjf167: Crochet and the Orioles feels just like the deadline transfer that makes essentially the most sense. I’d assume it must be painful from the Orioles facet – how a lot would you be keen to half with?

Dan Szymborski: I’d surrender Mayo or Norby. I’d not surrender Holliday

Tjf167: Is essentially the most underrated facet of Aaron Decide’s efficiency this yr that he’s a 32 yr previous 290 pound man who’s play a plus defensive heart subject?

Dan Szymborski: It coudl very nicely be.

Dan Szymborski: The truth that he’s even competent on the market given how large a dude he’s is simply superb

Dan Szymborski: He doesn’t must be prime Kiermaier to be spectacular

Dan Szymborski: Like if I awakened in the future and located a cat enjoying the cello, I wouldn’t be upset if the cat is inferior to, say, Jacqueline du Pré.

Dan Szymborski: I assume Samoa Joe is in the identical class?

Visitor: The Giants may use a left handed bat for his or her lineup. Who could be a sensible goal. Jazz possibly?

Dan Szymborski: That’s truly an fascinating concept, however drawback is, I’ve no really feel for the way the Marlins are considering

Dan Szymborski: exterior of an intense worry each time they need to pay cash for one thing

Tjf167: I ask this query usually and nobody ever has the answer- how come there’s not evaluation on the correlation of exit velocity and bat model/make? We obsess concerning the stitches on the ball, however nobody ever talks concerning the completely different bats. Why?

Dan Szymborski: I feel as a result of we now have even much less details about the bats than the balls, because of the latter being allegedly standardized

Dan Szymborski: I’m positive if folks begin delivery Meredith Wills a bunch of game-used bats she’d discover one thing fascinating

Mr. Flask: For those who may journey again in time to see a recreation (only a regular recreation) at a now-gone MLB stadium, which one would you select, and why?

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see the Polo Grounds simply because the bizarre configuration of the park makes such a special recreation

Dan Szymborski: Enjoying in it in MLB the Present has made me need that

roderick: Awhile again there was discuss Blue Jays administration preferring contact over energy. Might that specify Vladdy’s excessive groundball method and lack of pulled flyballs? I would like hope

Dan Szymborski: It COULD be, however I’m not aware of the non-public conversations they’ve

Dan Szymborski: I speak to entrance places of work fairly a bit, however I’m all the time conscious that what they inform me is incomplete

wingedbeater: Rank your confidence in ZIPS’s basic skill to foretell the next: (1) age-related decline for an MLB place participant, (2) age-related decline for an MLB pitcher; (3) MLB success of an MiLB place participant prospect, (4) MLB success of an MiLB pitching prospect, (5) MLB success of an IFA place participant transferring from a non-US skilled league, (6) MLB success of an IFA pitcher transferring from a non-US skilled league

Dan Szymborski: About that order!

Maddie: Hey Dan. Some fast questions on some Giants prospects:

How involved are you about Luciano’s protection?
Is it price enjoying Matos over Yaz or Slater proper now?
How sustainable is Heliot Ramos’ early season success?

Dan Szymborski: Loads of Heliot’s enchancment is probably going actual, the projection programs have all moved up like 25-35ish factors of OPS for ROS

Dan Szymborski: Although he simply missed the zStats chart for OPS; zStats has him at .264/.353/.447, that means there’s probably some air at the very least pumped into his present numbers. However the factor is, .264/.353/.447 in itself is rattling good on this offensive atmosphere in SF

Juan: On a scale from 1 to Astros, the place would you charge Baltimore’s rebuild up so far?

Dan Szymborski: 9

Dan Szymborski: They nonetheless have to point out, previous Burnes, that they’re keen to go excessive

Dan Szymborski: and we nonetheless need to see if they will hold the staff collectively

Dan Szymborski: now, the brand new proprietor has mentioned some constructive issues

Dan Szymborski: however it’s so much cheaper to purchase each a spherical at Pickles Pub than it’s to signal Gunnar Henderson to an 9 yr extension

Tim: Nathaniel Lowe was already being a singles hitter and it’s solely gotten worse. He’s hitting the ball dramatically much less onerous and the way for much longer will we give him to proper the ship? I’ll need to decide when Jung returns (hopefully within the subsequent 10 days) and I can transfer on with Vaughn and lower Lowe unfastened

Dan Szymborski: I feel his rope is operating out of…uh…rope

Dan Szymborski: He’s hit extremely weakly this yr and the Rangers aren’t able to be affected person

Dan Szymborski: He’s solely actually had one glorious season

Dan Szymborski: offensively, and the remainder are simply fine-ish. If we’re speaking fantasy, I don’t assume Lowe has a ton of worth until we’re speaking REALLY deep leagues

Dan Szymborski: However right here’s the issue: I’ve even much less religion in Vaughn

Jeremy: Odds that one NL playoff staff finishes beneath .500? Odds that two achieve this?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS truly had it lower than 10%

Dan Szymborski: The common wins for the eventual wild card winners within the final run was 91.8, 88.0, and 85.4 within the NL

Dan Szymborski: (within the AL, it was 93.6, 89.5, 86.8)

Aaron Decide: Have you ever seen something like these previous three hitting seasons that wasn’t, you already know, Bighead Barry? All of us thought 2017 was unimaginable. However that he’d by no means outdo it. After which 2022. And certainly he’ll decline from there. And now this.

Dan Szymborski: No, Decide’s had the very best hitting years since Bonds

Dan Szymborski: Getting 11 WAR is very large!

Tjf167: Giancarlo Stanton is having a considerably productive season with the bat regardless of just about not strolling anymore. Is it price rostering a 0.5 WARish DH provided that you’re a world collection contender?

Dan Szymborski: As all the time, it will depend on who the participant could be in any other case

Dan Szymborski: Stanton’s extremely meh, however he’s not the staff’s greatest drawback

Oaktown Blues: It’s June and Brent Rooker has a 150 wRC+ with the xWOBA to match. However he’s additionally sporting a 34.6% Ok charge. Is he due for a collapse?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not a collapse

Dan Szymborski: the zStats have his triple slash at .261/.334/.496

Dan Szymborski: So 150? That’s a bit too juicy. However he’s nonetheless hitting very nicely

Dan Szymborski: OH, didn’t reply the entire Giants query from above. Sorry, I’m simply distracted

Dan Szymborski: Undecided Matos OVER both of these different two

Dan Szymborski: and I don’t assume there’s any PARTICULAR purpose to be apprehensive about his protection, at the very least any greater than a pair months in the past

Dan Spivey: Nats quickest staff to cross 100 SB since 2009. Any Moneyball-esk market inefficiency there? I really like groups that aren’t anticipated to compete doing bizarre, wild stuff.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not satisfied groups are stealing sufficient

Dan Szymborski: BUT…that evaluation doesn’t embrace damage danger and I haven’t actually ever dove into that

Hans Buby: How do you clear up an issue like A. Rizzo?

Dan Szymborski: I feel you unfold some butter and a poached egg on high

Holliday: He nonetheless doesn’t appear to have discovered it down within the minors. Panic time but?

Dan Szymborski: Uh…he’s a 20 yr previous shortstop with a wRC+ round 140 in Triple A

Dan Szymborski: why would we panic abotu that?

Dan Szymborski: Now, there’s a little bit of a fear that he may not be aggressive sufficient on the plate within the minors, a contact of Jeremy Hermida Illness, however it’s approach too quickly to fret about that

Dan Szymborski: name me in 2027 if that hasn’t modified

Aaron Decide: Decide has had extra barrels since his streak began than anybody in baseball has had the entire season. And it’s not shut?

Dan Szymborski: I feel that’s correct

Colton: What’s the worst each recreation efficiency that will nonetheless maintain constructive worth? I feel it is a higher query than the “if an individual went 1-3 with solely singles each recreation.”

Dan Szymborski: I’m nto positive, our instruments are principally macro than micro

Dan Szymborski: oh a philosophical stage, possibly 0-6 however two of the opposite staff’s stars mess up their hammys fielding your outs?

jj: I’d like to see a mid/late-season replace on some early season tales about gamers who Fangraph writers thought there was a change the participant’s outlook like they do prediction articles.  The Jo Adell article stands out this yr. Yearly SSS is confused generally and “April”, however yearly I learn a number of articles a couple of participant on an early season scorching streak who has ‘modified’ one thing, however then that “change” appears to regress and we get a really related finish outcome.

Dan Szymborski: It could be fascinating

Dan Szymborski: Although I fear about it being slightly meta

Vader: Thanks for the chats…what stats does the Nice Dan use when he needs to judge hitters? Pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: I’m simply the mediocre Dan

Dan Szymborski: however in any case, philosophically, I exploit the only stat accessible within the state of affairs that doesn’t change the essential reality of the conclusion

Dan Szymborski: I knwo this may sound bizarre coming from ME, however I don’t like complexity for the sake of complexity

Dan Szymborski: I do some complicated issues, however solely as a result of I imagine these complicated issues are one of the best ways to achieve particular intellectually sincere conclusions

Visitor: How do you anticipate baseball altering if MLB switched to cricket guidelines the place one staff bats their whole 9 innings in a row after which the house staff bats after?

Dan Szymborski: You may kill some pitchers

Dan Szymborski: However I don’t know sufficient about cricket.

Fluke: What was much less probably: Decide’s 2022 or that 2022 wasn’t a fluke? Like, how many individuals hit 10+ WAR as soon as vs these folks doing it greater than as soon as?

Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t

Dan Szymborski: it might be on the higher finish of his vary, however it’s not a fluke

Additionally Dan: Are you able to give a (made up if crucial) instance of the sort of data groups purchase from you? You talked about promoting “tremendous detailed” ZiPs for Shota Imanaga to some groups just a few weeks in the past, what does that look in comparison with the projections we see in a typical article?

Dan Szymborski: The fundamental projection I promote they get the entire careers and all of the chance data and comps. For an additional factor or an additional pre-baked assumption, I’ll throw that in for a further $250 per

Dan Szymborski: and groups generally ask for *very* particular issues. Like all of the projections however of their park, or a participant’s projection on each staff, so on and so forth

Dan Szymborski: And a few issues are area of interest. One staff ONLY subscribes to a bi-weekly projection of the tipping level win for each playoff spot of their league

Dan Szymborski: for pre-baked assumption, stuff like “assume this participant is +X at a sure place they haven’t performed a lot” or “what if this participant improved their O-Swing by 5%”

Visitor: Is there an inconsequential secret that you simply’ve by no means informed anybody that you simply’d prefer to share?

Dan Szymborski: hmm

Dan Szymborski: I’ve binged the whole run of MacGyver on MULTIPLE events?

Dan Szymborski: Some years in the past, I used to be as soon as actually hungry in the course of the night time however was actually lazy, so I simply took a sip of caesar dressing straight from the bottle

btravers: Do you assume the cubs are unfortunate or simply unhealthy?

Dan Szymborski: I feel unfortunate and middling

Dmx: Final week’s dodgers/yankees opener is exhibit A for elimination of the ghost runner.

Dan Szymborski: zombie runner!

Andrew: Rutschman’s stroll charge has cratered however his energy and common have elevated. Do you assume this was a acutely aware choice?

Dan Szymborski: It appears like a acutely aware choice, he’s simply much more aggressive on marginal pitches

Dan Szymborski: to a level that I can’t assume it’s simply enjoying worse

Dan Szymborski: and I’m guessing no person sprays him int he eyes with scorching sauce earlier than each recreation

danny: have there been any ideas on increasing the video content material to extra analytical stuff? I really like the positioning however there’s so many occasions the place I’m like I’d like to see this text as a video

Dan Szymborski: We haven’t actually talked about that a lot

Dan Szymborski: I feel the difficulty is the skillset matching

Dan Szymborski: On employees, we don’t actually have a devoted audio/video individual, which is why we haven’t relaunched FanGraphs Audio since Dylan left

Dan Szymborski: I’d suspect if we did that route, we’d associate with one of many few actually common baseball YouTube creators on the market

Visitor: Do you’ve gotten any charts monitoring your weight reduction journey?

bat query: and Meredith wills just isn’t the authority on this topic. it’s jj crisco, Richard Greenwald, and plenty of others with a long time of printed work on the subject. a disgrace this neighborhood just isn’t extra .

Dan Szymborski: Charts? No

Dan Szymborski: Simply slowly and steadily losing a few pounds

Dusty Baker: Dusty Baker received a variety of crap for the best way he handled Chad McCormick final yr. Was he proper all alongside or is that this a special yr completely different consequence factor?

Dan Szymborski: Meh, it’s like 110 PA

Catastrophe at Sacrifice: I simply need to admire you referencing Jacqueline du Pre and Samoa Joe in the identical publish. The numbers don’t lie about Decide being nice.

Eastville: O’s extensions: Henderson = Bobby Witt, Adley = Realmuto, Westburg = ??

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, from the O’s viewpoint, ALbies could be greatest!

Dan Szymborski: lol

Visitor: There’s an off-the-cuff relationship between WAR and a participant’s reputation amongst followers. (Much more folks would say Decide is their favourite participant than Dominic Smith.) What participant has defied that relationship for you personally having fun with watching a participant?

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, even when his WAR has been not so good, Elly De La Cruz

Dan Szymborski: And Oneil Cruz has been far more enjoyable than his general strains

Dan Szymborski: And Nelson Cruz. He’s not likely overrated, however I need to fake that everybody with the final title Cruz is extra enjoyable than their WAR

Pete Alonso: The place am I enjoying in August?

Dan Szymborski: The US

Yo Yo Mama: Hey Dan – your reference to Jaqueline du Pre tells me you’re possibly a giant classical music man. What’s your high 5 composers energy rating appear like?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I speak classical music every now and then within the off subject Qs

Dan Szymborski: I’m not large on ranks like this

Dan Szymborski: however I can inform you the composers I’ve listened to most from the Media Monkey stats’

Dan Szymborski: Seems to be like my 5 most listened to, at the very least from my private assortment, are Mahler, Beethoven, Bruckner, Haydn, Chopin

Alf: Do you assume that the “vendor’s market” factor is overblown? Or will there actually be a major distinction in the price of buying established gamers?

Dan Szymborski: Tends to be overblown, however ti’s actual in a restricted approach I feel

Dr J: i used to be questioning what knowledge, if any, correlate to predicting future profitable closers? For instance, Jason Martinez and Ben Joyce can throw 100+, however does that play a roll in predicting future saves probabilities? Is that or anything of observe? Thanks for all you do!

Dan Szymborski: Mainly, being good is the notable predictor

M: How does ZiPS say ought to shut for the Cubs? My cash is on Tyson Miller (and it definitely can’t be Hector Neris).

Dan Szymborski: IF he’s within the pen when his neck is best, Ben Brown

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually simply doesn’t just like the Cubs bullpen in any respect

Dan Szymborski: it thinks the following greatest pitcher is the additionally injured Julian Merryweather

Dan Szymborski: of the wholesome guys, ZiPS like Leiter the very best

Playing cards fan: That is what VEB thinks of your article.
assume his projection system put far an excessive amount of emphasis on the floor stage outcomes over the primary 6 weeks of the minor league season, when the common sense (and analytical) method for many years has been to low cost these early season floor stage outcomes as a result of quantity of gamers enjoying at a stage larger than they ever have earlier than. Briefly, I feel his article about the way forward for the Cardinals, based mostly nearly completely on early season slumps within the minors, was a poorly constructed article with a poorly researched conclusion. So, sure, he fell into the overly emotional and reactionary bucket with that one.

Dan Szymborski: They’re free to assume that

Dan Szymborski: BUT, the impact is made up bullshit

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seemed explicitly at six weeks, however the first month of a participant at a brand new stage is definitely NOT decrease than anticipated

Colt Keith Hopium: Why does Colton Cowser have unfavorable defensive projections throughout the board? He’s been essentially the most worthwhile defensive OF within the league to this point (by OAA)

Dan Szymborski: Nicely, as a result of it’s pushed by him being like a +23 run OF

Dan Szymborski: on a seasonal foundation

Dan Szymborski: and projections aren’t going to imagine that

Dan Szymborski: if he’s merely good, then the positional changes take extra of it again

jj: re:Jo Adell article and the like, I’m attempting to get extra of a really feel for what adjustments actually stick.  There may be all the time discuss sure issues being extra sticky with smaller samples (swing charge, and many others) however I’m unsure how these actually work on a person participant who has a historical past and now appears to have modified one thing for a month.

But One other Dan: How would you rank the next Dans so as of greatness? Aykroyd, Castellaneta, Fogelberg

Dan Szymborski: asking a dan to rank dans is merciless

Cat Latos: I get pleasure from your chats however I’m actually right here to listen to about your cats

Dan Szymborski: They’re not doing a rattling factor in the mean time

Steve O: Do you assume the third wild card was a mistake? There’s like 4 good groups in the whole NL. Mediocrity is sufficient to make it to the playoffs and doubtless was a purpose why a number of groups didn’t do a lot this offseason. Think about once they broaden once more? It’s going to be even uglier.

Dan Szymborski: Sure, I feel the third wild card was a mistake

Colt Keith Hopium: For a bat-first prospect, Colt Keith actually isn’t doing a lot hitting (even his zStats are fairly terrible). Is that this one other casualty of the soar from minors to majors being so comparatively giant, did we miss one thing within the scouting course of, or is he simply going to take a while to turn into that 130 wRC+ man?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t essentially assume there’s any deeper that means behind it

Dan Szymborski: one thing an apple simply tastes mealy

Visitor: I really like your proj disk and all pthermaterial however why so many Def proj. Positions left off proj disk?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I haven’t actually seemed into it. Each one with 3 video games at a place ought to have gotten a score there

Houzer: Would Baltimore ever entertain transferring Vacation in a deal that featured Skubal?

Dan Szymborski: I assume it’s POSSIBLE, however it’s such a big gamble that I feel everybody could be scared

Visitor: what are you most listened-to Mahler and Beethoven symphonies

Dan Szymborski: Mahler – 1, 5, 6, 9

Dan Szymborski: Beethoven – 3, 7, 9

Dan Szymborski: (I can inform that with out wanting)

Yo Yo Mama: Haydn over Mozart – wow, scorching take

Dan Szymborski: I’m solely reporting what I’ve listened to

Dan Szymborski: For no matter purpose, I flip extra to Haydn than Mozart after I truly decide what I need to hearken to

Eli: Does ZIPS see any hope for a Rizzo renaissance?

Dan Szymborski: Not a lot

Zach: Corbin Burnes remains to be very efficient, however do you are concerned about giving him a long-term deal, given his strikeout charge has declined a lot over the previous 3 years

Dan Szymborski: Mildly so

Dan Szymborski: however there are often solely a handful of actually good pitchers accessible in FA yearly

Dan Szymborski: YOu can’t go to the pitcher retailer and ask if they’ve Corbin Burnes in higher strikeouts

Why not Zoidberg?: I’d completely uh…recreation… that 1-3 with a single each recreation factor. I’m not placing that dude in until it’s late innings and we’re trailing. Then his magic properties guarantee we claw again sufficient of a lead we go to extras so he may get his ABs.

Morbo: “YOu can’t go to the pitcher retailer and ask if they’ve Corbin Burnes in higher strikeouts” not until you’re the Brewers anyway

Visitor: Nicely diamond sports activities messed  issues up…you must take a look at the defensive portion…they butchered  your product t…ex…westbutgh not rated at 2b?  There are a number of others

Dan Szymborski: Hmmm, I don’t appear to have Westburg at 2B on the submitted spreadsheet, which is odd

Dan Szymborski: I’d need to undergo it and see if there’s one thing structural there

Dan Szymborski: Often, they ask me if one thing appears bizarre and no person had achieved so

Pat: Dan IS an ideal title for memes/GIF’s- “Laces out, DAN!”,  I gained’t be ignored, DAN” (Deadly Attraction), “Rattling Daniel”!!

Ryan: Mariners commerce Colt Emerson, Tyler Locklear and Logan Evans for Luis Robert.  Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: That’s slightly spicy for Robert given damage historical past

MATT DAMON: MATT. DAMON…. is weary of this chaotic world, however ever-grateful for you, and the opposite FG writers for persevering with your writing and contributions.

Dan Szymborski: On that observe, it’s time for me to go out – gotta get the pitcher zStats submitted