| 2:01 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat
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| 2:01 |
: Let’s simply dive proper in
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| 2:02 |
: What main change to baseball can have taken place 50 years from now that we aren’t even speaking about as a risk proper now (e.g. robo umps, and so forth)?
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| 2:02 |
: Variety of fielders, perhaps? Assuming there’s nonetheless baseball, in fact
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| 2:02 |
: Who would you quite guess on panning out? A prospect who must decrease his Ok fee by 5-10% or a prospect who must decrease his GB fee by 5-10%?
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| 2:03 |
: It depends upon different components. If we’re speaking a prospect removed from the majors, like A ball, I’d undoubtedly desire the man who hits too many grounders. Research after research reveals that hitters who’re placing out a ton within the low minors simply can not play on the main league degree usually
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| 2:03 |
: The nearer you get to the majors, the extra I’m within the one with the upper strikeout fee. However actually, it’s a kind of questions the place ‘all else being equal’ depends upon what degree all else is equal at
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| 2:03 |
: If London got here to MLB and stated “We have now an possession group able to pay billions for an enlargement crew AND town is prepared to spring for for a brand new stadium,” would the league go for it?
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| 2:03 |
: surprisingly, I don’t suppose so
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| 2:04 |
: I simply suppose the journey can be too onerous
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| 2:05 |
: They clearly perceive how powerful it’s the approach they schedule off days and such round journey and ensure to solely play quick collection. However I simply can’t think about a 6-hour minimal flight for each collection could possibly be labored into the schedule with out extra groups in Europe forming one other division of some kind
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| 2:05 |
: So for me, it’s far more about promoting the sport to promote TV broadcasts than about truly placing a crew there completely
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| 2:05 |
: Appears protected to imagine the Phillies are a playoff crew this 12 months. What outfield are they rolling out for his or her first playoff sport vs a proper handed pitcher?
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| 2:06 |
: I suppose I’m assuming everybody’s wholesome. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl
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| 2:07 |
: I can not think about Castellanos within the subject given how he’s taking part in
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| 2:07 |
: I do know that they’re speaking about taking part in Sosa within the outfield too at occasions, so perhaps you’ll be able to have him over Dahl or Rojas?
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| 2:08 |
: What do you suppose is inflicting the Braves’ YOY house run decline? Their barrel fee/arduous hit continues to be wonderful however they’re solely 14th in HR to FB. Does a few of this degree out or is there one thing systemic?
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| 2:08 |
: I believe a few of it’s gonna degree out, although a few of it’s that they had been unsustainably scorching final 12 months
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| 2:08 |
: additionally it doesn’t assist that Acuna is out for the 12 months
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| 2:08 |
: Have you ever seen information about how heavy-sellers carry out after the deadline in comparison with earlier than? I believe we overstate the influence just a few subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can consider a number of groups who bought however performed higher afterwards – as a result of regression and variance have a much bigger influence than particular person gamers.
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| 2:09 |
: So, this isn’t fairly the identical factor:
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| 2:09 |
: However I seemed into how groups who’re out of the playoff race carry out, and so they carry out worse than you’d anticipate primarily based on a Depth Charts rendering of their talent degree
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| 2:10 |
: How would you suppose a Gunnar extension would evaluate to Witt’s or Riley’s?
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| 2:10 |
: I believe it’d be fairly comparable, however i havent’ accomplished a deep dive to get extra exact than that
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| 2:10 |
: Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, and so forth.–might this be essentially the most star energy we see traded on the deadline in latest reminiscence?
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| 2:11 |
: Nicely, if all of those guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, however even in case you don’t), sure
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| 2:11 |
: significantly Robert, Bichette, Bregman
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| 2:11 |
: We’re not too far faraway from Juan Soto getting traded, and he’s a much bigger star than anybody listed her
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| 2:11 |
: but when all these guys went, certain
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| 2:11 |
: I do suppose that the Jays are gonna have so much to say about how the commerce deadline goes
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| 2:12 |
: and the White Sox perhaps too? The rumor is that they’re asking for a bundle larger than what WAS obtained for Soto in the event that they commerce Robert, which for my part makes him unlikely to get dealt in any respect
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| 2:12 |
: however I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds wonderful
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| 2:13 |
: Alternatively…. he’s by no means hit 600 PA in a season, by no means hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto’s 23
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| 2:13 |
: So it’s undoubtedly a longshot {that a} crew would provide that a lot
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| 2:13 |
: How has David Fry not but earned an on a regular basis function?
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| 2:14 |
: I’d argue that he nearly has, simply that his on a regular basis function is ‘wherever another person has a relaxation’
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| 2:15 |
: in case you take a look at his previous few weeks, he’s playign some mixture of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, however the one individuals getting meaningfully extra PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor
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| 2:15 |
: he’s getting the identical PT as dudes I’d name regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan
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| 2:16 |
: it’s simply cut up everywhere
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| 2:16 |
: A number of chats in the past somebody requested what different sports activities you take pleasure in watching, and also you stated, IIRC, tennis due to the drama between two people for 4 hours. I watched lots of Roland Garros these final two weeks and agree. My query is, in case you might watch a pitcher/hitter match up as if it had been a tennis match, which means one pitcher and one hitter for 100 pitches (specifics could be mentioned later), who would you wish to see? My vote: DeGrom v Bonds which appears chalky.
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| 2:16 |
: Oh man, what a match yesterday
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| 2:16 |
: I missed the ladies’s remaining, but it surely seems that was fantastic b/c Swiatek is simply too good
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| 2:16 |
: however the males’s remaining was nice
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| 2:17 |
: deGrom is half of mine for certain
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| 2:17 |
: Bonds is fairly thrilling as a foil
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| 2:17 |
: I by no means obtained to see Willie Mays play so he’s in all probability my decide although
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| 2:17 |
: or perhaps you do one per period
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| 2:17 |
: think about Koufax/Mays on one channel, Maddux/Bonds on one other, deGrom/Soto on a 3rd
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| 2:17 |
: Am I on a scorching streak or have I figured some issues out?
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| 2:17 |
: por que no los dos?
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| 2:18 |
: I’m ceaselessly gonna be a Gonzales truther b/c the primary faculty baseball mannequin I ever made thought he was the most effective hitter in a era (sure, my park components might need been off)
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| 2:20 |
: I believe that he’s on an unsustainable contact scorching streak, however that his method of elevating to maximise his contact is gonna work nice
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| 2:20 |
: and that there’s room for him to enhance his chase fee just a little, which makes me suppose a tailwind in walks and favorable counts might offset a babip slide
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| 2:20 |
: Improbable enhancements to the participant pages – go alongside the reward to the remainder of the workers!
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| 2:20 |
: I’ve allow them to know
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| 2:21 |
: and yeah it’s nice!
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| 2:21 |
: assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!
Nicely, apart from Aaron Decide… I traded Berrios and M. Harris for him when he was nonetheless in that stoop. |
| 2:21 |
: Looks like groups which can be profitable usually persist with replacement-level veterans for a very long time. I’m pondering of Nick Castellanos on the Phillies as an example, or Martin Maldonado with the Astros. Ought to profitable groups be faster to chop bait on replacement-level veterans? Or would the marginal acquire in not-especially-valuable wins not be well worth the potential clubhouse disruption?
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| 2:21 |
: This can be a actually arduous query
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| 2:22 |
: I believe that usually groups would in all probability be higher off in the event that they moved on sooner than they really do, however much less shortly than followers suppose they need to
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| 2:22 |
: The rationale for that’s {that a} false constructive right here hurts extra
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| 2:22 |
: like, shifting somebody once they weren’t truly cooked
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| 2:22 |
: Is Mike Elias the most effective GM in MLB? If not, who’s?
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| 2:22 |
: I’ve to provide it to Alex Anthopoulos
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| 2:23 |
: I imply, full respect to Elias
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| 2:23 |
: I’ve written a TON about O’s resolution making up to now two years becuase they’ve had lots of attention-grabbing selections
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| 2:23 |
: and whereas Elias and co in all probability began out as being just a little too conservative, long-term-focused, and unwilling to ever commerce prospects to enhance, they’ve come round admirably
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| 2:23 |
: clearly, their dev/acquisition crew is unbelievable as nicely
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| 2:24 |
: so I’ve him charging up the rankings. But it surely’s simply arduous to knock what the Braves hold doing
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| 2:24 |
: Why wouldn’t there be baseball in 50 years?
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| 2:24 |
: I imply, I don’t have a particular reply, however 50 years is a very long time
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| 2:24 |
: Tatis Jr. has been wanting higher recently…do you suppose he ever will get again to 2021 kind?
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| 2:24 |
: I believe it’s undoubtedly doable
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| 2:24 |
: the man is only a spectacular athlete
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| 2:25 |
: i don’t suppose he’s able to these energy numbers, as a result of I don’t suppose anybody is able to these energy numbers on a projected foundation
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| 2:25 |
: however when it comes to being a dynamic hitter with a 150-area wRC+ and wonderful protection/baserunning to associate with it, sure
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| 2:25 |
: Is it lifelike to presume that Alonso could be satisfactory in a nook OF and due to this fact have much more TV to contenders?
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| 2:25 |
: I hate to say it, however no
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| 2:26 |
: I don’t purchase that he might deal with a nook outfield spot
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| 2:26 |
: a)it’d need to be left, b)I nonetheless suppose it’d be Hoskins-esque
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| 2:26 |
: What do you suppose has been the most effective free agent contract of greater than 100 million? Scherzer with the Nats and Holliday with the Cardinals come to thoughts, however I’m certain I’m forgetting some good candidates.
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| 2:27 |
: these two are up there. Gerrit Cole is definitely within the working. A Rod and Harper are good ones
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| 2:27 |
: I’m wanting via a listing proper now
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| 2:28 |
: eh, there are a bunch! however Scherzer in all probability will get my vote for the general greatest
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| 2:28 |
: Inform Jay Jaffe I heard what he stated about me final week. I’ll be in his chat tomorrow.
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| 2:29 |
:
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| 2:29 |
: SHOTA. IMANAGA.
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| 2:29 |
: If gamers below 5’7″ obtained an additional strike, would Altuve be the most effective participant in baseball?
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| 2:29 |
: Are hitters who crush off pace and breaking balls gonna turn into extra helpful because the league strikes to fewer fastballs?
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| 2:29 |
: A bit of. However I believe pitchers may even transfer to throw these guys extra fastballs, principally simply specialize extra
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| 2:29 |
: so their major edge shall be that pitchers work on their fastballs much less
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| 2:29 |
: Who’s going to win the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes and the way a lot of an overpay is it going to take?
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| 2:30 |
: I believe the O’s will find yourself profitable it, truly, and that it’ll take two good Triple-A hitters
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| 2:30 |
: I didn’t make a mannequin for it, however I additionally thought Nick Gonzales was going to be the most effective hitter in a era out of faculty as nicely haha
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| 2:30 |
: I imply his stats had been so outrageous that even whenever you regulate for the truth that he was hitting on the moon, they had been nonetheless otherworldly
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| 2:30 |
: Willie’s line vs. Koufax. .278/.426/.536 with 5 HR’s in 97 AB’s.
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| 2:30 |
: Yeah, don’t inform me you wouldn’t wish to watch this
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| 2:30 |
: Crochet has already surpassed his profession excessive for innings in a 12 months, together with all his time at school. Would that meaningfully scale back his commerce worth for a contender seeking to purchase him this 12 months?
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| 2:32 |
: I believe my $155 mil contract turned out fairly nicely….
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| 2:32 |
: Re: greatest free agent contracts for >$100 million, Wheeler. Harper additionally wanting good to this point.
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| 2:32 |
: Finest contract: Zack Wheeler with the Phillies?
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| 2:32 |
: Lmao chat title says that is the Ben Clemens Fangrpahs Chat
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| 2:32 |
: boy, I truly don’t know if I can repair that
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| 2:32 |
: So, Ben… are you continue to nervous about Jose Ramirez?
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| 2:33 |
: as a substitute, i’m again to my article about how he’s a marvel
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| 2:34 |
: Skubal and Suarez are leaders for the Cy Younger awards proper now; who has the most effective probability to dethrone one in all them?
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| 2:35 |
: Wheeler, Imanaga, Sale, Burnes, Glasnow, Gil maybe?
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| 2:35 |
: somebody might get scorching within the second half and run away with it, even somebody I didn’t identify
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| 2:35 |
: So Aaron Decide…. how is that this potential? After 2022 I believe all of us, pretty, thought he would by no means do something like that (200 > WRC+) once more. And but, right here he’s. Is he actually this degree of hitter? Is he the most effective since Bonds?
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| 2:35 |
: So, I’m doing a undertaking for tomorrow the place I graph totally different hitters’ squared up charges by launch angle
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| 2:35 |
: as in, do you sq. up your grounders greater than your fly balls, are you constant throughout the board, and so forth.
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| 2:35 |
: Decide’s graph is simply ludicrous
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| 2:36 |
: it’s simply all squared up quick swings within the air
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| 2:36 |
: what a monswer
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| 2:36 |
: Do you suppose Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 sport energy grade? He’s solely 22 but it surely simply looks like he can by no means elevate the ball.
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| 2:37 |
: nah, I don’t. I do actually suppose he has 80 uncooked although
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| 2:37 |
: I’ve been eager about your article on buying and selling newly good relievers for prospects and the way it’s unrealistic for followers to anticipate a lot from them. I imply I’m certain there are at all times counterexamples for articles like that however I really feel just like the Effross commerce in 2022 reveals that high-quality prospects can be found even for relievers with out a lot expertise
Effross had <60 profession MLB innings when traded and the Cubs obtained the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was taking part in nicely within the excessive minors (and the Yankees had lots of good prospects on the time) Is that this simply an exception or is Wesneski under the caliber of prospects you had been contemplating? Additionally in all probability value noting that this commerce has gone terribly for the Yankees so could dissuade comparable habits from different groups |
| 2:38 |
: Wesneski was undoubtedly under the caliber of prospects I’m speaking about, by our rankings, on the time
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| 2:38 |
: I’m wanting over the commerce roundup I wrote for that transaction
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| 2:38 |
: We had Wesneski at a 40+, and Seventeenth-best prospect within the NY system
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| 2:39 |
: so like, perhaps I’m utilizing the flawed prospect grades? However I believe that groups definitely discounted Yankee arms who all of a sudden gained velo after being drafted
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| 2:39 |
: It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to commerce Skubal proper?
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| 2:39 |
: I don’t suppose so
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| 2:39 |
: When are you planning on being good in case you hold buying and selling your good gamers?
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| 2:39 |
: if the jays find yourself truly buying and selling Vlad, which groups are the highest touchdown spots? mariners? Attempting to determine who in rivalry wants a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an try to extend the marketplace for groups needing a 3B improve?
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| 2:40 |
: I undoubtedly suppose that they’re taking part in him at third to widen his potential touchdown spots. However I don’t suppose an enormous deal is gonna get accomplished, as a result of he’s Vlad Freaking Guerrero however 1b bats are simply not that helpful on the deadline
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| 2:40 |
: so there’s this bizarre scenario the place a commerce that values Vlad ‘pretty’ can be very unpopular in Toronto, each within the clubhouse and for followers
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| 2:41 |
: If Chris Sale continues to carry out on the degree he has then he ought to lastly get the Cy Younger as a kind of lifetime achievement award.
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| 2:41 |
: I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Younger to Sale in my head on a regular basis
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| 2:41 |
: it’s loopy that he by no means received it
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| 2:41 |
: Why do/did groups low cost new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they maintain on to it?
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| 2:42 |
: Simply that lots of these guys haven’t seemed almost as sharp after leaving the pleasant confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did an awesome job buying and selling built-up pitchers for a ton of individuals within the lats few years. I believe they obtained Frankie Montas completely for pitchers, roughly
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| 2:42 |
: yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears
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| 2:42 |
: they did the identical for Soto
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| 2:43 |
: and I believe in lots of these circumstances, they’re buying and selling like one-ish extra arm than you’d anticipate, and that’s as a result of groups are like ‘can AL these guys be that good?’
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| 2:43 |
: Ben, how outdated is the pre sport win chance mannequin as proven within the Stay Scoreboard? Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to boost predictions?
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| 2:44 |
: Actually relies upon what you imply by outdated. It’s undoubtedly easy. It simply builds projected run scoring and runs allowed primarily based on the posted sport lineups on each side (and a quite simple accounting for the bullpen)
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| 2:44 |
: Wheeler must be proper behind Scherzer on the most effective free agent contracts, proper? Didn’t see his identify talked about
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| 2:44 |
: A number of different individuals pointed him out, and yeah
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| 2:44 |
: he undoubtedly counts
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| 2:44 |
: If Scherzer is the most effective free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst? The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.
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| 2:45 |
: Oh, certainly not, b/c the Nats nearly assuredly obtained lots of insurance coverage funds again
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| 2:45 |
: Will Seiya Suzuki ever recover from the hump? Each time he seems like he’s about to interrupt out, he falls again to earth. The protection has been inconsistent. What’s your tackle his future?
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| 2:45 |
: man…. I nonetheless suppose he’ll
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| 2:45 |
: regardless of having been flawed about this particular factor many occasions
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| 2:45 |
: I completely consider in Seiya
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| 2:46 |
: and he seemed like he figured all of it out on the finish of final 12 months, after which nope
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| 2:46 |
: i imply, he’s nonetheless hitting, i’ll give him that
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| 2:46 |
: however I assumed he’d enhance on protection by greater than he has, and accidents have undoubtedly been a constant drawback
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| 2:46 |
: I believe he’s what he’s at this level, principally
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| 2:46 |
: leaguewide OPS common is under 700….time to panic or not but?
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| 2:46 |
: Yeah I’m panicking
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| 2:46 |
: baseball is much less enjoyable to observe when nobody scores runs
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| 2:47 |
: I assumed the Nats had been unable to get insurance coverage protection on the Strasburg contract as a result of his harm historical past
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| 2:47 |
: There was no insurance coverage on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his harm historical past
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| 2:47 |
: nicely that makes it worse!
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| 2:48 |
: Im conscious of the methodology. I run my very own mannequin utilizing the identical framework however I believe the PA Forecasting could possibly be doubtlessly very flawed. The method of accounting for the appropriate variety of PA’s awarded to every crew primarily based upon the standard of their opposition (i.e. an above common hitting crew goes to accrue extra PA’s in a single sport in opposition to a under common pitching crew than their season common), this stuff trigger extra Base Runs to be achieved . Any thought you guys are accounting for the PA interplay results?
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| 2:48 |
: Let’s simply say that’s low on our record, the location has had a ton of cool enhancements in recent times however I believe revamping our sport odds from like, fairly good (we’ve examined them and so they do alright) so as to add just a little just isn’t highest precedence
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| 2:48 |
: that’s probably not my space, I’m only a typically helper
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| 2:48 |
: however I’d guess there are various issues we’d repair earlier than that
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| 2:49 |
: Unironically I would like MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don’t get why we had been mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a very enjoyable time for baseball
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| 2:49 |
: Is there a abstract someplace on the location of the distinction between the three units of plate self-discipline metrics (statcast?pitch information/SIS)?
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| 2:49 |
: can there be a abstract of the totally different sources of plate disciple metrics
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| 2:49 |
: There isn’t however I can provide you one right here
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| 2:49 |
: they measure the strike zone barely in a different way
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| 2:49 |
: that’s the entire totally different
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| 2:50 |
: % probability Luis Robert goes on the deadline? And which groups are most probably to get him?
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| 2:50 |
: I simply have it very low
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| 2:50 |
: thanks for answering my butchered query. Is another correct? SIS zone appears waaaay totally different
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| 2:50 |
: I dunno, actually! I similar to utilizing the identical one each time for consistency. So I have a tendency to only use Statcast these daysb/c typically I’m pulling information straight from Savant
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| 2:50 |
: i’ve seen a conspiracy principle that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to attempt to restrict how a lot breaking pitches transfer, with the unintended consequence being they don’t fly as far
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| 2:51 |
: I might completely see that
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| 2:52 |
: Concerning the low league vast OPS, what are your most popular approaches/solutions on the way to enhance it?
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| 2:53 |
: I would like extra full of life baseballs. I’d wish to see experimentation with decrease roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw within the earlier sport
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| 2:53 |
: The standard Nats world knowledge: The Nats obtained little or no, if something, again in Stras insurance coverage. (Supply: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)
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| 2:53 |
: Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, and so forth) helpful? Baseballsavant has stated that they’re supposed to be descriptive, not predictive. I’ve examined them and located they’re truly typically much less predictive than actual world outcomes. Constructing a statistical mannequin to foretell what “ought to have” occurred looks like an inherently flawed course of (an ideal mannequin would let you know would truly occurred, a very unhealthy mannequin would haven’t any foundation in actuality). That looks like lots of inherent statistical error, and if these numbers aren’t predictive then I don’t see how they’re truly helpful. I additionally take excessive subject with some fee stats (like barrel%) being introduced as per BBE as a substitute of per PA. This appears to punish hitters like Bellinger who lower their Ok% for sometimes weak contact however nonetheless hit roughly the identical variety of barrels per PA
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| 2:54 |
: Dan did one thing on this
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| 2:54 |
: It’s the season for peach roulette and my native grocery had them on sale final week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All had been good!
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| 2:54 |
: I misplaced at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday
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| 2:54 |
: purchased some on the native fancy schmancy grocery retailer for a salad and so they had been abysmal
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| 2:54 |
: “baseball is much less enjoyable to observe when nobody scores runs”: And it turned private for me (notice: that is what Jordan truly stated)
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| 2:54 |
:
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| 2:55 |
: alright, I’m doing a little caretaking of the sick (spouse and canine, what a double whammy), so I’m gonna name it a day. Thanks a lot for chatting with me and I’ll discuss to you once more subsequent week
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Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He could be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.