Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/4/2024

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to my first chat of June!

Jay Jaffe: My lunch simply arrived as this chat started so please bear with me for a couple of minutes as I get some nourishment

Gerald H: Opening day 2025….what group do you assume Juan Soto is on?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s both the Yankees or the Mets, with the Giants in all probability the third group I’d title however their present regime’s precariousness in all probability working towards them.

Tim: Are we staring down one other mlb lockout in 2026/2027? Already listening to rumors about it… will the league truly miss video games this time?

Jay Jaffe: I get requested this each single chat. I’m actually unsure why it’s value dwelling upon — I’ve no management over it, you haven’t any management over it, and no person who does have management over it’s going to do a lot up till we’re approaching a deadline.

Jay Jaffe: Human nature, I assume! However no, i don’t assume there’ll find yourself being video games missed (versus rescheduled as in 2022).

Gm Communicate: Is the Blue Jays and Astros Gm’s saying there isn’t a likelihood they’re going to promote there good gamers on the deadline simply lip service or are they actually going to be that cussed? Blue Jays particularly being 13 video games out of first.

Jay Jaffe: i believe it’s principally simply public relations posturing; no person needs their followers to start out tuning out and trying to subsequent yr, and each nonetheless have photographs on the Wild Card on the very least. The Jays aren’t going to win the division however they’re solely 5 video games again within the Wild Card race, the Astros are 7 video games again by way of each routes

sodo mojo: Do the Mariners have to commerce for a bat within the quick time period or do they wait till the deadline? For the reason that calendar flipped to Could they’re league common by WRC does that give them pause to see which of their struggling bats rebounds?

Jay Jaffe: Whereas I’m certain they (and also you) would really like a fast repair, the truth is that at the moment there fewer groups keen to commerce the form of gamers who may very well be obtainable in late July, and a GM who’s promoting would in all probability must be stunned to make a deal. Not everyone is enjoying as much as their functionality however the Mariners’ bats do appear to be trending in the precise path, and being in first place buys him a while.

DT: A full season at this fee (round 9 WAR) has to seal the Cooperstown deal for Choose proper?
It will put his WAR7 at nearly 50. The one place gamers with that form of peak are both excluded for different causes (Bonds, ARod, Shoeless Joe), ready for the decision (Pujols, Trout, Betts) or interior circle Corridor guys.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t say it seals the deal, as a result of longevity remains to be the first driver of who will get elected to the Corridor of Fame, and Choose doesn’t even have 1,000 hits, not to mention the two,000 that has been a bright-line take a look at for BBWAA candidates for the previous half-century

Jay Jaffe: That stated, sure, Choose is wanting good on the advanced-stat entrance, with a 44.5 peak rating (WAR7) and counting; his 3.9 bWAR is already his seventh-best season, and so each further win he provides counts in direction of bettering that, and including a full level to his JAWS. Attributable to his late begin, he’s going to be a singular case anyway, however he’s going to want to bulk up his profession numbers earlier than he assures himself of a spot in Cooperstown.

Tjf167: What $ quantity does an affordable Volpe extension begin at? Seems like a excessive ceiling however lowish ground participant. $110mm with a number of FA years?

Jay Jaffe: that’s a greater query for Dan Szymborski however the Andres Gimenez seven-year, $106.5 million extension from final yr involves thoughts as a place to begin, with changes for inflation and NY. Gimenez was at 2.106 years of service time — not fairly Tremendous Two-eligible — as he headed into his age-24 season. Volpe will probably be at 2.000 yr as he does the identical subsequent spring.

Tjf167: Are the times of massive first basemen FA offers over? It doesn’t seem to be Alonso will ever get the $150mm he turned down, and with 1 dimensional guys like Torkleson (busting) and Vlad Jr   (regressing), it simply looks as if there ought to be lots of skitishness.

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t shut the door on one other one ever occurring however proper now, there’s no apparent recipient of 1, and if I needed to throw a dart so far as who to keep watch over, it will in all probability be the Purple Sox’s Triston Casas. However that time remains to be a great distance off and he’s obtained work to do to push his asking value into the $150M vary.

brad penny in your ideas: how “large of a deal” do you discover the Tucupita Marcano ban?  how doubtless do you assume extra bettors will probably be present in MLB?

Jay Jaffe: Anytime you’ve obtained a participant banned for all times it’s an enormous deal. I don’t know that one other is imminent however within the wake of the Ippei Mizuhara/Shohei Ohtani investigation, I’ve heard a number of rumors about athletes playing by means of unlawful bookmakers, and if baseball ever will get to the underside of it, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see suspensions extra just like the one-year ones given to minor leaguers.

Frankly, I believe there ought to be a blanket ban on skilled athletes playing on sports activities, and it’s important to be fairly ****ing silly to threat your profession on the kind of cash at stake by means of both authorized or unlawful betting.

RAGBRAI: As pitchers are pitching fewer innings (impacting different stats) and hitters are hitting much less HRs (impacting different stats), will we see these former benchmark numbers turn out to be meaningless to HOF entry.

Jay Jaffe: They’re not meaningless — they’re nonetheless there as reference factors — but it surely’s going to take Corridor of Fame voters adjusting to the truth of adjusting instances earlier than they totally concede that they must look past win, hit, and homer totals with regards to most candidates.

Christian: Hello Jay! With the combination of Negro League stats into the MLB report and elevated consciousness of lesser-known NeL stars, do you see any Negro Leaguers who may discover their manner into the Corridor of Fame quickly?

Jay Jaffe: Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball gamers, managers and executives will probably be eligible for the 2025 Traditional Baseball Period Committee poll, however they’ll be straight competing for house and votes with pre-1980 AL/NL gamers, managers, and execs, and the poll can solely include eight candidates in all. I’m hopeful that any individual will break by means of but it surely’s going to be a problem to interrupt out of such a crowded discipline. I might have a lot most well-liked to have a Negro Leagues/Black Baseball Period Committee poll voted upon by consultants.

gila monster: Luis Gil bumpday. He’s been on hearth, do you assume it’s legit?

Jay Jaffe: sure, he’s legit, which isn’t to say that I envision him persevering with to pitch in a manner that earns him Cy Younger votes. he’s obtained some spectacular stuff and he’s achieved a implausible job of seizing the chance. I hope that he’s capable of proceed pitching properly after no matter slowdown the Yanks impose upon him in order to not overwork him.

Zach: Cherished your Choose piece. One factor I’ve seen that nobody is speaking about is {that a} couple weeks in the past he completed off the very best 50 sport rolling xwOBA within the statcast period, and he at present has the very best 100 sport rolling xwOBA within the statcast period. Appears absolutley insane to me.

Jay Jaffe: Wow, I missed that aspect but it surely hardly surprises me. Given his plate self-discipline, energy, and max-EV power, some Choose stretch appeared prone to be the highest one. However as I confirmed within the piece, there’s a case to be made he’s as sizzling as he’s ever been, or fairly rattling shut.

Jay Jaffe:

wheelhouse: if the 2024 yankees are pretend, what is going to the explanation be

Jay Jaffe: We’re all inside Tommy Westphall’s snow globe.

Tacoby Bellsbury: On at the present time two months from now, the place do you think Pete Alonso will probably be enjoying?

Jay Jaffe: Tampa Bay

P: After studying Dan’s article about Eduard Julien’s demotion, it is probably not that justifiable purely when it comes to efficiency, however on condition that the AAA group is at residence this week (so Julien doesn’t want to really transfer anyplace, simply take a special freeway from residence), do you assume there’s something to be gained by merely saying “go play 6 video games in St. Paul and for God’s sake, simply swing the dang bat” in an effort to bust his hunch or change his strategy?

Jay Jaffe: That and a method of navigating a roster crunch (welcome again, Royce Lewis!)

Sanford: Please do to Pete Alonso what you probably did to Aaron Choose. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I’ll in all probability write about him in some unspecified time in the future however nothing imminent

slumppy: At what level does MLB step in to try to do one thing concerning the offense? It has been so dangerous general this yr. At present it’s the solely of the massive American sports activities that doesn’t appear to get and cater the foundations to extend offense since that’s what most of the people needs.

Jay Jaffe: Scoring is definitely increased than it was in 2022, earlier than we obtained a complete bunch of latest guidelines designed to goose the offense, and we haven’t even hit the summer season but, when the ball tends to hold extra and scoring ranges rise. MLB does have future rule modifications in thoughts, ABS being the massive one, however after a one-two serving to of rule modifications, I don’t see the league and the union reacting to each single dip by rewriting the rule ebook.

JT: Even when Vladdy isn’t nice at 3B, is that this lastly a recognition from the Blue Jays that we have to sacrifice some protection for offense if we need to, um, win a sport?

Jay Jaffe: It sounds prefer it’s going to be a once-in-awhile factor, and whereas I don’t hate it, I believe the incremental beneficial properties are fairly dang small on a group that wants like 5 guys to start out hitting like they’ve prior to now

Kyle: Does Jasson power his manner into the BX?

Jay Jaffe: In all probability not till late within the season except there’s an damage. The Yankees are enjoying so properly they’re in if-it-ain’t-broke territory, and Dominguez nonetheless has simply 9 video games at Triple-A. Give it time.

Mark S: Would 500 HRs get Stanton to Cooperstown? Or has that benchmark been without end tainted by the Steroid period.

Jay Jaffe: I believe if Stanton obtained to 500, he’d in all probability get into the Corridor, but it surely’s not going to be automated.

Zach: Anthony Rizzo has a 58 wRC+ in his final 30 video games and a 72 wRC+ since his collision with Tatis final yr. Are the Yankees ride-or-die with Rizzo or would they contemplate a transfer at 1B?

Jay Jaffe: a number of yankees questions within the chat so that is the final one for awhile — I believe they’d get DJ LeMahieu some reps at first base earlier than they contemplate going exterior the group.

HoganLegDrop: Is there any purpose to assume Severino (if he retains present tempo) will get any greater than what Lorezen did final yr?

Jay Jaffe: Completely. He has a for much longer and stronger monitor report, significantly as a starter. Lorenzen made his first All-Star group final yr however completed with a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP, each of which had been worse than his profession averages; he has a 4.23 ERA and 4.59 FIP as a starter for his profession. Severino is coming off a nasty yr however has usually been rather more profitable.

HoganLegDrop: How ought to we really feel about Yamamoto and that contract given what we’ve seen to this point? Do we expect that there’s one other gear he may kick into however is an above-average however not dominate pitcher wanting extra doubtless?

Jay Jaffe: YOU MUST JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS ABOUT A 12-YEAR CONTRACT NOW!

Jay Jaffe: Yamamoto has been inconsistent however sheesh, the man is carrying a 3.32 ERA and a pair of.69 FIP whereas adjusting to a brand new nation, a brand new tradition, and a brand new baseball. I’m unsure how a lot better you count on him to be. I believe this can be a fairly good begin to what I count on will probably be a protracted and productive profession.

Nathaniel Lowe: What’s occurring with him? I see a a drop in LA and an enormous drop in ISO and Barrels/Fee. I traded for him when Casas went down and have appeared to amass a rock.

Jay Jaffe: Wow, a 2% barrel fee? a .338 SLG? I believe your man was kidnapped by aliens and changed by James Loney.

Dk: Extra prone to flip their profession round after extreme early profession struggles Baty or Torkelson?

Jay Jaffe: Torkelson, I believe. He did have a little bit of a breakout within the second half final season (.238/.318/.498 , 121 wRC+), so he’s proven he could be an above-average main league hitter, whereas we’re nonetheless ready for that from Baty, whose ceiling was by no means judged to be fairly as excessive.

T(win)s: No query, simply completely happy Royce Lewis is again!  Being a fan of MN sports activities we’re preconditioned to default to “That’s why we are able to’t have good issues”

Jay Jaffe: I’m glad Lewis is again, and I’m nearly utterly detached to the Twins!

MikeD: Do you imagine MLB has “deadened” the ball this yr, or are there different points at play. If the previous, why would they do this?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume they’ve achieved something to the ball with intent, however as we’ve seen, modifications in sourcing of supplies can have a larger-than-expected impact from batch to batch and yr to yr. As the sport’s preeminent physicist, Alan Nathan, advised me in 2011, “The specs on main league baseballs, they nearly don’t should be referred to as specs, they’re so unfastened that the vary of efficiency from the highest finish to the underside finish is so completely different.”

Jason N: Hey Jay – seems to be just like the FanGraphs servers are compromised (once more).  I maintain getting my display screen taken over by rip-off advertisements – even throughout your chat.  Could need to alert the positioning admins.

Jay Jaffe: First I’ve heard of it, however I’ll cross this alongside to the authorities. Are you logged in?

Phil: Are Bello, Houck, Casas, Devers, Abreu, and Rafaela the core of a future contending group? Or are we ready for Mayer, Teel, and firm, through which case I presume a number of the above will probably be traded or let go in free company following a number of extra years of the present infinite middlingship? Asking for a number of million associates throughout 5 and a half states, thanks.

Jay Jaffe: I’m in no way satisfied w/r/t Rafaella however this can be a fairly first rate group, with a better-than-expected rotation and a few welcome breakthroughs within the outfield. I wouldn’t hand over hope.

Theeeehauahsuehaueheueheushh Yankees win: I used to be poking by means of the EVs of a few of my favourite gamers and I seen Freddie Freeman’s common EV is down a bit and so are most of his exhausting contact numbers. This isn’t to say that he’s having a nasty yr clearly, he’s nonetheless in all probability a high 20 or 25 participant proper now primarily based simply on the season, but it surely obtained me enthusiastic about declines. May one thing like this be the signal of an oncoming decline for somebody like Freeman? If that’s the case does it portend steep ugly decline or a extra swish one? And, say it does result in a steep sudden decline, is that sufficient to maintain somebody like Freeman out of the Corridor of Fame? He’s obtained a reasonably sturdy however in all probability not full resume in that regard, so I’m questioning if he’s at risk of falling out of consideration with a tough drop off

Jay Jaffe: At 34 years previous, Freeman NOT declining considerably is extra of a shock than if he had been declining, however the man remains to be carrying a 150 wRC+ so I don’t assume it’s actually time to panic; he hasn’t woken up with Chris Davis’ swing or Nathaniel Lowe’s. He’s checked lots of containers for the Corridor of Fame, and whereas I don’t assume he’s a lock but, I count on he’ll get in with a standard profession development.

Ben: What do you make of Snell and Montgomery’s terrible begins to the yr? Each arrived very late to spring coaching and didn’t even know the place they’d be enjoying till mid-March at earliest. Clearly there are lots of elements at play, however exhausting to not assume that this interfered with their prep for the season.

Jay Jaffe: Woof, was typing a solution and my entire laptop simply crashed… dangle tight

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s completely doable that the late signing contributed to their rocky begins; in spite of everything, a part of coming to a brand new group is constructing relationships with coaches and teammates, none extra vital for a pitcher than his catchers. That stated, it’s additionally on gamers to maintain themselves in form, and I’m wondering how a lot of their difficulties are as a result of they weren’t fairly prepared sufficient after they started sport exercise.

Jay Jaffe: And sure, I get the temptation to Blame Boras, and he in all probability misjudged their markets to a level — however he takes his orders from his shoppers, and they also bear culpability as properly.

Sanford: Is there a purpose why FanGraphs doesn’t have HR% (allowed) as an obtainable pitching stat? Maybe I’m lacking it, however I by no means am capable of finding it on leaderboards or participant pages. Ok/9 and BB/9 are accompanied by Ok% and BB% (that are definitively extra helpful), however I’m shocked we’re nonetheless left with solely HR/9…one thing you could possibly cross up the chain?

Jay Jaffe: Agreed, it will be good to have. Will point out it.

grader135: Will tommy pham find yourself again in Arizona?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know the place Tommy Pham will ship up however that man wants as a lot remedy as his wage can afford.

Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, lots of good questions nonetheless within the queue however I’ve to name it a day to go decide up my kiddo. Thanks for stopping by and have an ideal week