Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/16/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to my Tuesday chat. Apologies for the technical glitch when it comes to the pre-chat queue however we ought to be up and working.

Jay Jaffe: Pouring one out for Whitey Herzog, the Corridor of Fame supervisor greatest identified for piloting the Cardinals to the 1982 championship and two different pennants.

Jay Jaffe: And pouring one other one out for Carl Erskine, a real mensch who not solely helped the Dodgers to 5 pennants and their 1955 championship — and threw two no-hitters as properly — however turned “a fierce champion of human rights, racial equality and, when his late son Jimmy was born with Down syndrome, turned immersed in combating for folks with particular wants.”

The Corridor of Fame honored Erskine with the Buck O’Neill Lifetime Achievement Award final summer time https://www.indystar.com/story/sports activities/2024/04/16/indianas-carl-erskine…

WinTwins0410: Jay, I hate to “keep in mind some guys” an excessive amount of to begin a chat, nevertheless it looks like we’ve misplaced lots of attention-grabbing baseball guys recently — Ken Holtzman, Whitey Herzog, Carl Erskine, Fritz Peterson, Jerry Grote and even Pat Zachry.  Curious in the event you plan to do a full-on article about Whitey.  I hope you’ll!

Jay Jaffe: Forgot about Holtzman, who was an enormous a part of the A’s three straight championships and holds the report for many wins by a Jewish pitcher (174).

Jay Jaffe: I’m enthusiastic about whether or not I can pull off a Herzog tribute in a well timed trend.

bringbackpologrounds: Do you see Altuve parlaying his excellent begin into severe MVP rivalry?

Jay Jaffe: Clearly he gained’t preserve that. However can he contend for an MVP award at age 33? Coloration me skeptical. Clearly he stays a superb hitter, however he’s had a tough time staying wholesome, with simply 90 video games final yr and 141 the yr earlier than. Most of his time missed was because of the damaged thumb he sustained within the World Baseball Basic, however he hasn’t performed 150 video games in a season since 2017. It might definitely be one thing to see if he did, although!

Volpe: Not at THIS stage, however, the way in which folks thought Volpe’s rookie yr was going to be his offensive expertise endlessly is fairly shocking. Not everyone seems to be his new RF teammate.

Jay Jaffe: Baseball followers are typically impatient, and one byproduct of the Prospect Industrial Complicated is that highly-touted younger gamers who don’t ship instantly trigger some significantly irrational reactions. That Volpe really had a fairly first rate rookie season at age 21 was camouflaged by his .209 AVG

Jay Jaffe: He’s hitting .373/.464/.542 however apparently sufficient has solely barreled two balls (4%). I do know Esteban Rivera goes to take a better search for us quickly.

Phil: Guys like Tyler O’Neill fascinate me. Former prime prospect underneath 30 with a six-win season prior to now ought to be able to producing one other comparable, if wholesome. As a Purple Sox fan watching him play, I don’t perceive how he acquired a popularity as a non-hustler, if that even is his popularity. Assuming his newest harm actually is only a few brow stitches, how shocked would you actually be if he outdoes his 2021 season?

Jay Jaffe: I assumed Oliver Marmol calling out O’Neill in April final yr throughout a moist recreation for not working onerous was one of the bush league acts i’ve seen from a significant league supervisor in awhile

Jay Jaffe: Man has a major historical past of leg accidents, is working on a moist monitor, and was thrown out by Acuña? Possibly you are taking him apart and tackle your notion of the problem, however embarrassing a participant publicly like that, woof.

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, as i famous final week earlier than he acquired banged up once more (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mookie-who-tyler-oneill-is-the-hottest-hit…), O’Neill is off to a robust begin, hitting the ball a lot tougher than in 2022 or ’23, and I think the well being of his legs has so much to do with it. Unsure if he can match 2021 but when he can keep wholesome he’ll be the most efficient Sox outfielder since Mookie.

Idiotic Failson: Is Goldy cooked?

Jay Jaffe: Hmm. He’s not hitting the ball onerous, is chasing extra, and has much more swing-and-miss than regular. 28.6% strikeout charge, 2.4% barrel charge, 54 wRC+. He did decline notably from 2022 to ’23, however I feel it’s extra probably he’s coping with one thing injury- or mechanics-related than it s an much more dramatic fall-off, although he’s 36.

Bardo Invoice: Suppose Xander Bogaerts has like 9 extra 3-WAR seasons in a row (with some affordable year-to-year variation) earlier than tailing off within the final couple years of his profession. Ends his profession with one thing like 65 WAR, ekes out 3000 hits. Nevertheless it’s additionally like a 112 wRC+ for his profession with mediocre protection. Is that (and may it’s) a corridor of fame profession?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, in all probability. Proper now he’s at 39.4/34.7/37.1 for profession/peak/JAWS. Assuming that peak rating stays untouched and he will get to 65.3 WAR, that’s a 50 JAWS, which wouldn’t be a slam dunk by itself however when mixed with 3,000 hits is fairly clearly gonna get a man into Cooperstown.

Matt VW: Together with his season ending harm, Trevor Story will publish 3.5 bWAR within the first three years of his Purple Sox contract. Xander Bogaerts posted 10.3 bWAR over the primary two years of the identical span, with practically a full season so as to add on.

I do know nobody tries to get damage, however this casts the Purple Sox’s dedication to half with Bogaerts in a fairly unhealthy gentle. How a lot of this was foreseeable and the way a lot simply unhealthy luck?

Jay Jaffe: The Purple Sox have made some fairly doubtful selections in terms of seeing a few of their homegrown stars off lately— Lester, Mookie, Bogaerts — however hey, John Henry’s gotta be proud of that payroll flexibility, proper?

Jay Jaffe: Given the Coors Subject issue and his elbow and shoulder woes it was at all times a bit difficult to get a really feel for what Story’s offense would appear to be as soon as he modified groups, however a few of that is simply unhealthy luck. Then once more, there’s a purpose he price $140M to Bogaerts’ $280M, so a minimum of a few of this was fairly obvious that they have been taking a step down.

seth r: pitchers stuff++ arms fall off greater than ever and groups don’t thoughts grinding 22y/o onerous throwers into mud, how does MLBPA defend pitchers who don’t make it to free company? drive a unique arb course of for pitchers to get them paid earlier?

Jay Jaffe: I want I knew. Over half the union is pitchers, and so a lot of them are keen to chase velocity within the face of harm threat — whether or not it’s to hold onto an enormous league bullpen spot or to web that pre-free company extension that acts as a security web — that I’m undecided you may get them to agree on a tack to soak up negotiations. The gamers actually do need to prioritize getting paid earlier of their careers basically, and the scenario with pitching accidents solely calls consideration to it much more. Not everyone could be Spencer Strider, netting a record-setting extension that assured generational wealth only a yr and alter into his huge league profession.

the one that asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: A reuben sandwich, sadly not as scorching because it ought to have been as a result of the driving force appeared to get misplaced in my neighborhood, winding up a number of blocks south and 10-Quarter-hour later than anticipated.

Kevin: I lately learn some thought of baseball to have been Jackie Robinson’s fourth greatest sport. Have you ever been to the Jackie Robinson Museum, and if that’s the case, what did you consider it?

Jay Jaffe: I do surprise about Robinson in different sports activities; at UCLA he lettered in basketball, soccer, and monitor in addition to baseball. His older brother Mack gained a Gold Medal as a part of Jesse Owens’ relay group in 1936, and Jackie gained an NCAA championship within the lengthy bounce. I do discover it onerous to imagine baseball was the least of these sports activities however he was clearly fairly particular as an athlete.

I visited the Jackie Robinson Museum in late 2022 and loved it. It’s not very huge, so simply doable in about 90 minutes or so, nevertheless it was very properly performed. A bit text-heavy for youths, however price bringing them if that’s what you take note of.

https://twitter.com/jay_jaffe/standing/1596585827353534464

Lance Lynn HR Machine: Did the Royals themselves suppose their off seasons strikes and participant improvement could be this a lot of a hit? Or do you suppose this season is even already exceeding their greatest expectations?

Jay Jaffe: I favored the Lugo and Wacha strikes however I doubt even the Royals noticed these as transformative. And let’s not neglect that early data could be notably distorted by high quality of competitors. The Royals are 5-0 in opposition to the White Sox, 6-6 in opposition to everyone else; additionally they went 3-0 in opposition to an Astros group whose rotation is fairly depleted. They could be the Royals group that turns the nook, and I’m notably impressed with Bobby Witt Jr. up to now, however let’s see the place this goes.

Jason: Are the Dodgers really giving to provide Pages a reliable likelihood or is he going to get the final season Michael Busch therapy?

Jay Jaffe: it’s not clear but. That is primarily as a fill-in for Heyward’s roster spot, which successfully places him within the quick half of a platoon with Outman, although it’s extra crowded than that, with the 2 Hernandezes and Chris Taylor additionally on the market. If he hits, he’ll stick round however I think this can be a short-term factor for now

Ske: The NLC has had a enjoyable begin to the yr. After 10% of the season, which group do you suppose has the very best likelihood to tug away?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose anybody’s going to tug away. We had the 5 groups forecast for one thing like 77.5-83.5 wins, and no one’s 10-5 or 11-6 begin upends that; quite the opposite, the vary is now 80.6 to 84.1. That is going to be a summer-long grind.

TomBruno23: Wanting on the lively leaders in W and undecided anybody will get to 175 to move Holtzman no matter their faith.

Jay Jaffe: Possibly a few of them have to go to synagogue extra usually

Jay Jaffe: Gerrit Cole has 145 wins, and I feel I really feel comfy taking the “over” on 30 remaining wins, if nothing else.

Visitor: How do you deal with a prime prospect like Jackson Holliday who begins off so poorly?  Ship him again to the minors?  Persist with him?  One thing else?  Looks like a really robust determination because you don’t need to sap his confidence, but additionally don’t need to damage the MLB group.

Jay Jaffe: you must give him greater than 19 PA, which is all he has up to now (one hit and 10 strikeouts, yikes). In the event you don’t try this, then calling him up was a waste of everyone’s time, and sending him again down might be going to do extra hurt than good. I can’t think about the Orioles haven’t thought this via already  — you must a minimum of contemplate that this may occur once you make such a transfer, and have a plan in place. Possibly it’s 3 weeks, or 50 PA or one thing, however that you must see whether or not he can alter and the way he handles the adversity. I feel lots of it relies on stuff that’s not seen to us from exterior or that we run the hazard of projecting our personal considerations into his head. However I’ll give the Orioles the advantage of the doubt and imagine they’ve a plan in place.

Phil: You might be very proper in regards to the draw back of Prospect Fever. Once I was in my teenagers or early twenties, I keep in mind being dissatisfied in a number of guys (Darren Bragg, Arquimedes Pozo) who had gotten publicity as a result of they’d been acquired in vital trades. However guys who simply labored their approach via the minors have been clean slates from a fan’s perspective, and it made it extra thrilling when someone took off, and extra regular if it took them a pair years to take action. I’ll always remember seeing Mo Vaughn in his first season, seeing the ball come off his bat and realizing, oh, that is the actual factor. I do know it’s bizarre on an analytics web site to say I need to know much less data, however I do suppose there’s a contented medium when it comes particularly to long-term projection of 19-year-old children.

Jay Jaffe: I feel a minimum of a number of the impatience comes with folks eager to get an edge of their fantasy leagues or dynasty leagues or no matter. In fantasy if a man can’t enable you to as we speak he’s not a lot good and also you may as properly discover somebody who can reasonably than sporting a tough rookie season.

the man who asks the questions: How actual is the Yankees pitching? It seems worse once you go from ERA to FIP to xFIP

Jay Jaffe: A 2.93 ERA with a 4.00 FIP is fairly rattling good contemplating they’re with out Cole. I feel Cortes is their greatest concern amongst their starters, as three of his 4 outings — all however the one in opposition to the weak-ass Marlins — have been fairly crummy. The opposite factor I’d fear about is that the bullpen isn’t hanging many guys out; actually, their 17.5% Ok charge is second-to-last within the majors, and their FIP is sort of twice their ERA (4.69 to 2.38). I anticipate lots of regression there.

Mets: All 16 video games they’ve performed this season have come in opposition to group with a .500 or higher report (possibly partly as a result of they’ve performed the Mets) and so they’re hanging in there with out Senga, JD & a struggling Lindor. Are they higher than what we predict/thought?

Jay Jaffe: We forecast them for 80.8 wins and 81.2 losses. To this point they’re 8-8. Sure, they’ve performed it with out Senga and Martinez, and with Lindor not hitting, however are you anticipating a 161 wRC+ out of D.J. Stewart and 115-120 from Baty, Taylor, and Marte? I feel they’ll proceed to be a .500ish group

War2D2: Trout is mashing like Trout of yore. What harm do you suppose will waylay him this time? My wager is on shedding a toe to a freak glazing accident.

Jay Jaffe: let’s simply say that I need him to keep away from all bungee-related exercise

O’s Fan: What do you suppose the Orioles ought to do with Santander?  Deadline commerce, extension, qualifying provide, or let him stroll after the season?  He’s off to a gradual begin however I might anticipate him to be round his profession norms when all is alleged and performed,

Jay Jaffe: Wanting on the roster and the excess of younger expertise coming via, I’ve suspected that Santander could possibly be a July commerce chip, notably if Cowser or Kjerstad drive the problem.

Reid Detmers: Am I legit or is it too small of a pattern measurement?

Jay Jaffe: it’s a small pattern with 2 of his 3 begin in opposition to the identical group (Purple Sox) however these spikes in his fastball and changeup whiff charges bear watching. Each are getting totally different motion than prior to now, so I ponder if one thing has modified mechanically. Hold an eye fixed out.

WinTwins0410: Jay, congratulate me. I used to be simply named the Corridor of Fame’s CEO. Along with me making the Casebook *lastly* accessible within the bookstore/reward store, I’ll make one other huge determination to overtake the Eras Committees. See what you consider this. Whereas now now we have on a three-year rotating foundation: 1) pre-1980 gamers and non-players together with Negro Leagues gamers; 2) post-1980 gamers; and three) post-1980 managers/executives/umpires; I’ll change it to the next: A two-year cycle by which 12 months 1 consists of 1 poll for pre-1980 gamers and one separate poll for Negro Leagues gamers and 12 months 2 consists of 1 poll for post-1980 gamers and one separate poll for all non-players. Do you see that as an enchancment? (I do.) Or, ought to the Eras Committees return to evaluating Eras Committee gamers from extra than simply two time intervals? And may the Committees overview gamers from the longer-ago intervals a bit extra usually? (to stop the Dick Allen/Ron Santo threat of dying earlier than induction)

Jay Jaffe: Congratulations! I like your plan and want to subscribe to your e-newsletter.

Jay Jaffe: I feel having the Negro Leagues (and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball) candidates thought of on one monitor is important to no matter replaces the present system.

Jay Jaffe: I’m high-quality with contemplating older eras much less ceaselessly nevertheless it’s a tough stability. Contemplating Invoice Dahlen and Lefty O’Doul as soon as each 10 years made sense as a result of they have been lifeless, however as soon as each 5 years for guys of their 80s and 90s simply unhealthy luck.

Edward: Any “concern” with Choose?

Jay Jaffe: A bit, yeah. He’s not hitting the ball as onerous as regular, although he’s in need of his .241 xBA and .467 xSLG. he’s additionally not hanging out as a lot and even swinging as a lot, so I do surprise about that indirect concern he battled in March. If it’s hurting him to swing, they’ve an issue.

kingmitch: What are mookie betts weaknesses? if any?

Jay Jaffe: It typically takes him two bounds to leap over tall buildings, and I’m advised he tends to underseason his pasta sauces only a bit.

John: If Mookie Betts retires proper now, is he a Corridor of Famer?  I say sure, and consequently submit that McCutchen ought to be, too, even when his peak isn’t fairly as excessive

Jay Jaffe: Huh? Betts is 31, has been enjoying at an all-Star Degree since he was 22 and has 66.6 bWAR, a few of which comes from being 156 runs above common within the area. Cutch is 37, hasn’t performed like an All-Star since he was 28, and has 48.6 bWAR, partly as a result of he’s 77 runs under common within the area. They’re not shut.

Head of the Breakfast Nook: In the event you hand over 11 hits in 0.2 innings, the percentages you might be tipping a few of your pitches have to be pretty excessive.  Proper, Hunter Brown?

Jay Jaffe: Appears fairly more likely to me, particularly that he acquired only one swing and miss out of 40 pitches. Groups are typically fairly cagey in terms of acknowledging whether or not a man is tipping, primarily as a result of it solely invitations extra scrutiny of a pitcher’s each transfer, so we could not at all times get the reality.

birds: Writers have a tendency to provide franchise icons bonus factors in terms of HOF voting (presumably they really feel extra well-known/necessary to the game after they’re so necessary to a group).  Do you could have a better time voting for guys like that?  Like, is Larry Walker a better selection than Gary Sheffield?  Is there anybody borderline you suppose is tipped over the road by franchise-hero standing?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose Walker was a very straightforward selection in that regard as he really cut up the center of his profession between the Expos and Rockies. I do suppose it’s tougher for a man like Sheffield to get elected as a result of he bounced round a lot, typically as a result of he agitated his approach out of city.

To the extent that being a franchise icon has weighed into my voting I’d say it’s a fairly small bonus that comes from being a part of a run of sustained success. I’ve solely gotten to fill out 4 ballots and those who come to thoughts on this are Ortiz with the Purple Sox (he’s fairly low in JAWS) and Utley with the Phillies. “Icon” is a little bit of a robust phrase however I did throw Pettitte a vote this previous yr partly as a consequence of his position within the Yankees’ dynasty.

Zach: How lengthy do the Dodgers give Lux to determine it out? He appeared high-quality in spring however he doesn’t look shut offensively in the meanwhile. I assume his surprisingly elite protection at second may purchase him extra time. In some unspecified time in the future, they need to see if Trey Sweeney, or possibly a Vargas transfer again to second, could be higher for the group, proper?

Jay Jaffe: as I simply came upon in regards to the transfer in the beginning o this chat I haven’t learn something in regards to the rationale however it could be that the Pages transfer places a squeeze on Lux by bumping Taylor and/or Kiké to extra infield work whereas Lux sits. However I feel he’s nonetheless acquired some runway to determine it out.

Danny: I at all times learn your responses in Nick Offerman’s voice. Unsure how that occurred, however I assumed it is best to know.

Jay Jaffe: I’ll take it! (scowl whereas consuming an enormous plate of bacon)

Doc: Doc Gooden has been within the information lately?  Together with his quick, however historic, peak and conventional daring face achievements (ROY, Cy, No-Hitter, 3 Rings), the place would you rank him among the many intestine of post-Seaver/Palmer/Carlton/Sutton/Niekro varieties exterior the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: I used to be glad to see Gooden’s quantity retired by the Mets. I feel it’s forgotten how good a profession he had given the high-profile issues he had. I’ve him 87th in S-JAWS, which is under a bunch of men I’ve endorsed (Cone, Saberhagen, Stieb, Santana, Hamels, Hershiser) and a few I’m extra lukewarm about (Pettitte, even given the aforementioned vote), Buehrle, Hudson. He’s above Oswalt and Félix. None of them had a season like Gooden’s 1985, although. Holy hell was that one thing.

Theeeeeeeee Yankees Win: The ideas of anybody however John Sterling calling Yankees video games appears sacrilegious. I’m in my mid-20s, so he’s all I’ve ever identified! In studying about his profession, I observed he’s by no means been nominated for the Ford C. Frick Award. What wouldn’t it take for John to be honored by the Corridor? 35 years calling video games and being the voice of the final dynastic run this sport has seen need to be price consideration!

Jay Jaffe: I’m stunned Sterling has by no means been nominated however stylistically, he’s not everyone’s cup of tea, and past the nationwide voices, you’ve acquired lots of competitors for recognition as a result of there are lots of broadcasters who have been iconic inside their regional markets.  

I can’t say that Sterling was my favourite announcer, however I grew fonder of him because the years handed, and notably at all times appreciated tuning right into a Yankees recreation with him and Suzyn as we hit site visitors on the way in which again to NYC from our annual Cape Cod journeys. Like the remainder of this drive is gonna be a goddamn slog however we’ve a minimum of acquired a ballgame to distract us.

Sterling is hooked up to a complete lot of mostly-positive reminiscences. He’s beloved throughout the business and notably throughout the Yankees group, and I want him all the very best in his retirement.

Jordan Montgomery: Very like pitchers showing to worth maxing out on their velocity and stuff, are groups doing the identical? Why did it appear nobody valued Jordan Montgomery’s means to supply 175+ good, if not nice, innings?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose it was that no one valued it, it was that they didn’t worth it on the value Boras was asking, and notably when he was asking for it, after groups have been fairly locked into their budgets. That he fired Boras as his agent and can probably undergo all of this once more subsequent yr is fairly telling.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Re: Pages – CT3 has appeared dreadful and Kiké hasn’t appeared significantly better. Compulsory “it’s april” however possibly the start of the top for LA’s two super-Util guys?

Jay Jaffe: Actually not out of the query. Taylor has been dancing alongside the sting of a cliff since 2022

Arjay: Jack Leiter appears to have gotten his walks underneath management and continues to be a Ok machine. Is that this the Rangers not eager to waste any bullets earlier than he will get damage?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s as a lot in regards to the disarray inside their rotation, with Bradford hitting the IL, Heaney struggling, and the returns of deGrom, Scherzer, and Mahle being a number of months away. Leiter solely threw 85 innings final yr so he’s in all probability not going to be closely used general; his innings proper now could possibly be very priceless to the group.

Yelich? Extra like Yelouch: Yelich had an excellent few weeks to begin the season! If he stays wholesome/has an all-star stage yr, and repeats it subsequent yr, is he on any type of monitor for HoF consideration? What sort of seasons does he have to have shifting ahead to essentially transfer the needle? (greatest case state of affairs being one other couple of seven win years)

Jay Jaffe: He’s actually fallen off since that 2018-19 peak, with only a .407 SLG from 2020-23. he’s at 40.4 bWAR and has simply three seasons above 3.8 WAR. Gonna want a bunch of 5+ seasons, and that i’m skeptical he has them in him.

Insert Witty Title Right here: Re: Hunter Browns final begin, I watched it the day after, and many of the hits have been from breaking balls that didn’t break and have been center center.

Jay Jaffe: “What did you consider his execution?”
“I’m in favor of it.”

Jay Jaffe: Whoa, the place did the time go?

Jay Jaffe: It’s time for me to pack up and hit the highway. Thanks a lot for stopping by. We’ll do that once more quickly (however in all probability not subsequent week as a result of my mother and father are in Brooklyn and my child has no college as a consequence of Passover). Till then, take care…