Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/12/24

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2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: With that, let’s get going.
2:03
wheelhouse: I’m attempting to rebalance right here, but when Cole is out for the season, do you assume the Yankees are:
A) a menace for the third wild card
B) 100% lifeless within the water, stick a fork in them
2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: To borrow from Monty Python for a line that’s typically quoted in our family, “A good query and one which in latest weeks ‘as been a lot on my thoughts.”

2:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe the reply to that relies upon upon how near the perfect variations of themselves different starters corresponding to Cortes, Rodón and Stroman are in 2024. If the 2 holdovers pitch as they did final 12 months, the Yankees shall be toast
2:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: if the three of them pitch as much as their capabilities and in the event that they get an honest fill-in, all isn’t misplaced, however it could very nicely value them down the highway — both through a commerce or a needed payroll lower in the event that they had been so as to add a giant wage to this 12 months
2:08
Killjoy: I do know the mantra “spring coaching stats are meaningless,” and often they’re. However are there stats that you simply do search for in a superb or dangerous method? I noticed Chris Gilligan’s article final week on pitchers with elevated velo in ST and puzzled if that was a stat (like Ok%) that stabilizes shortly.
2:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I actually largely ignore spring stats. Particularly early within the spring it’s simple to face out in case you’re ramping up shortly however too typically it’s simply that some pitchers are extra ready to take action than others.
2:11
Angels vs devils: Is Nolan Schanuel the second coming of John Olerud—or Luis Arraez? Will the Angels follow him even when he hits simply 10 HRs a 12 months?
2:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume he’s the second coming of both of them however his profile is extra like that of Arraez in that it is going to be excessive contact/decrease energy. He could have some vaguely Olerud-like plate self-discipline however Olerud had a bunch of 20-homer seasons and I don’t count on that from Schanuel
2:15
Beer Inspiration: It’s chilly and wet in Humboldt County, CA, the place I reside. Having buddies over for chili and Dodgers (me) vs. Giants (everybody else) preseason smack discuss tomorrow evening. Any beer suggestions?
2:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’d think about Pliny the Elder is fairly accessible there, and Russian River’s Blind Pig IPA, too
2:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: On the Twitter craft beer thread that I’m on due to Eno Sarris, Cellarmaker turns up loads as nicely. Haven’t had any of their stuff however I do know it’s extremely regarded
2:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Talking of Pliny, Ben Clemens despatched me some a pair weeks in the past. Now that’s what I search for in a teammate!
2:17
Johnnywaffles: Hypothetical: It’s 2034 and the HOF has modified its committees (once more). There’s an period committee for 1950-1985 and you’ve got been requested to chair the committee to create the poll. No gamers from that period have been added because the current. Who do you placed on the poll? Observe: Clemens is in one other period.
2:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: ooh, hmm. Dick Allen, Bobby Grich and Invoice Freehan come to thoughts. Thurman Munson, Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker as nicely. If I’ve acquired eight slots as the present poll, let’s add some pitching… Luis Tiant and Dave Stieb can be good ones.
2:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The issue with that’s that there are such a lot of good candidates that the votes may get unfold too skinny to get anybody the 75% consensus wanted.
2:23
Visitor: Ought to JD Davis be extra indignant at a) the Giants; b) his agent; c) his union
2:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Davis acquired caught in one thing of an ideal storm as a result of he’ll solely get a fraction of his $6.9 million arb win. By way of ESPN:

“Beneath baseball’s collective bargaining settlement, negotiated contracts for arbitration-eligible gamers are assured, whereas salaries determined by an arbitration panel usually are not. That allowed the Giants to launch Davis for 30 days’ termination pay, which got here to $1,112,903.”
2:27
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It appears just like the Giants filed at $6.55 million however that there was some dangerous feeling concerning the timing of it relative to the potential for a settlement so i’d say the crew might be accountable greater than any of them. That mentioned, I believe Davis’ personal limitations as a participant are what made him susceptible to being on this place.
2:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s all a reasonably powerful break for him a technique or one other, and he’s going to get loads much less as soon as he indicators elsewhere
2:28
birds birds birds: Should you’re gonna pay an enormous AAV for (most likely) a single season of a pitcher, then having that man miss all of spring and begin the season late looks like an enormous downside.  With each passing day Snell/Monty are hurting their single season AAV.  Assuming they’re not morons (or at the very least Boras isn’t), does that imply they really nonetheless assume they’re getting 5-6 years?
2:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: at this stage I believe it’s extra doubtless they get one thing just like the Bellinger deal, shorter time period and with opt-outs.
2:29
Mike Ortman: Method too early HOF query for the “Traditional Baseball Period” committee: Are you for candidates like Jim McCormick, Bobby Mathews, Invoice Dahlen, and Sherry Magee?
2:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The one candidate from amongst those who quickens my pulse is Dahlen, however he was additionally not an amazing man even by turn-of-the-century ballplayer requirements. Although I do agree McCormick is neglected, Nineteenth-century pitchers from earlier than the times of 60-foot-6 don’t do a lot for me, and I believe his election would fulfill at most tens or possibly a whole lot of individuals. I’d a lot somewhat see Negro Leagues candidates on the poll instead of all 4 of these guys.
2:31
Misplaced A’s Fan: Will Curtis Mead and Miguel Vargas have fantasy relevance this season?
2:32
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Extra doubtless Mead than Vargas, I believe — he may make the Rays and see time at a number of positions. I don’t see a lot future for Vargas in LA
2:33
Pumpsie: Nonetheless wonderful to me that the Yankees and Dodgers didn’t find yourself with ANY of the premier FA shortstops of the previous few years. When Lindor, Correa, Seager, Turner et al had been approaching FA, it appeared inevitable that one can be a Yankee, one can be a Dodger. Do they remorse their choices to not allocate assets up-the-middle?
2:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe the Yankees OUGHT to remorse staying out of that market as a result of they haven’t gotten a lot of their place (Volpe shall be nice however may have been slotted elsewhere within the infield). Whereas I believe the Dodgers would have been higher off signing a type of guys, it now is smart that they had been retaining their powder dry for Ohtani. Nonetheless, they’ve susceptible up the center even when the Mookie experiement continues to pay dividends, as a result of Lux is a little bit of a large number
2:35
Kevin: Love all of your work, Jay. What are the highest few stuff you now perceive about baseball that you simply didn’t know 5 or ten years in the past?
2:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Thanks, Kevin. I’d prefer to assume I perceive every little thing higher than I did 5-10 years in the past however particularly tips on how to use Statcast information — which is a continuing studying course of — and getting a greater really feel for when totally different stats stabilize. Even so, the extra expertise I achieve, the extra I respect how a lot there nonetheless is to be taught.
2:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Apparently the Dan Evans tweet didn’t present up so right here it’s as a screenshot:
2:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe:
2:41
birds birds birds: FG Depth Charts has Acuna with 135 runs this 12 months!  As a median projection!  Is it actually doable that the median is one thing that occurs as soon as each 3-4 years?
2:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Wow, that does appear … kinda excessive. We’ve had simply 9 seasons of 135 or extra runs scored since 2001 so yeah, i’d most likely take the below on that. Although I believe he’ll rating a ton of runs in what appears like a formidable lineup
2:43
Southside Sam: Hello Jay,
Do you assume we’ll ever see a main knuckleball pitcher once more within the MLB, or has the pitch has been phased out to the historical past books?
2:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Sadly I believe it’s the latter. With velocity so available, and with the power to make use of know-how to experiment with grips and optimize pitches, we’re going to see fewer junkballers survive lengthy sufficient to show to the knuckler. I actually hope I’m improper about this
2:45
Nate: Do you see Joey Votto taking part in for the Blue Jays this 12 months?
2:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Extra doubtless than not. Not as a full-timer, and he’ll nearly definitely begin the season in Buffalo, however I believe that if he’s stayed in form, being a second offseason faraway from shoulder surgical procedure should imply that he’s stronger.
2:46
Chip: May the Yankees hypothetically run $400mm payrolls perpetually given their income?
2:47
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Most likely however they’d get much less bang for his or her buck since the next % of that will be tied up in taxes and would compromise their participant improvement since they’d be choosing decrease, and many others.
2:47
Reliever corridor: Do Kenley and Kimbrel have photographs on the corridor? Why is Ok rod ignored so typically
2:51
Avatar Jay Jaffe: As for Ok-Rod, apart from the save complete, he’s a transparent step or two down from Wagner in run prevention and in dominance, to say nothing of his character, about which the much less mentioned the higher. Many citizens really feel there’s already too many relievers within the Corridor; with Wagner so near election, Ok-Rod could also be caught in a little bit of a backlash. However he additionally had an ERA greater than half a run increased
2:51
Mike Ortman: After the Oscars this weekend, what are your high baseball films?
2:54
Avatar Jay Jaffe: the identical as they had been earlier than: Unhealthy New Bears and Bull Durham are tops and I by no means tire of them. I take pleasure in Eight Males Out regardless of the historic inaccuracies. The Bingo Lengthy Touring All-Stars film, with Richard Pryor, Billy Dee Williams, and James Earl Jones is form of a sleeper choose.
2:56
birds birds birds: Votto’s HOF case is mainly absolutely baked at this level – there’s no extra spherical numbers to achieve, his charges gained’t change a lot.  I’m pondering although that going again to Canada, being actual glad within the dugout, giving a number of extra pleasant interviews and customarily reminding everybody they love him might be the most important increase to his HOF probabilities I can think about.
2:57
Visitor: Is it doable that Snell and the opposite Boras shoppers on the FA market will go unsigned into opening day?
2:58
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’d say that appears impossible. I’d guess by this time subsequent week he’s signed.
2:58
birds birds birds: Re: the pitchers and lacking spring, I meant that in the event that they’re signing a short-term opt-out deal, then the signing crew is simply getting worth from them in 2024, and by not signing these guys are actively hurting their 2024 worth
3:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: certain, they’re taking a danger. But it surely’s not as if their eggs are solely in a single basket (I might count on a number of opt-outs) or that their suitors shall be unaware of the context of this season if they’ve gradual begins. It’s not a hard-and-fast “until you get to 4.0 WAR there’s no purpose to choose out” scenario.
3:00
rob: The Braves fifth starter spot appears prone to be both Lopez or Elder, however within the (pretty doubtless) even that neither is any good, and AJSS & Waldrep doubtless want extra time within the minors, what’s the transfer? May there be a reprise of the 2019 Keuchel scenario?
3:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: As in will they go exterior the group? i believe nearly each contender can afford to dip into the market of unsigned free agent starters and take a flyer. Michael Lorenzen? Jake Odorizzi? Wealthy Hill? They’re all on the market, as is Keuchel who’s been legitimately horrible for 3 straight years.
3:04
KC Ache: How do Holliday and Vlad evaluate when he was a prospect?
3:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Simply taking a look at Eric Longenhagen’s grades atop their participant playing cards, it appears like Vladito was at the very least a full grade increased by way of future worth for the offense classes and MUCH increased by way of current worth: 65 PV/70 FV hit and sport energy, 80/80 uncooked energy for Guerrero, 45/60 for hit, 25/60 for sport, 50/60 for uncooked

Alternatively, Holliday has a transparent edge in pace and protection. Each graded out at 70 FV prospects, simply acquired there through totally different routes.
3:07
bringbackpologrounds: Who’s extra prone to be the Venezuelan GOAT in 2035: Cabrera, Altuve, or Acuña?
3:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Cabrera’s mixture of 3000+ hits and 500+ homers is hard to beat. Altuve could have his work lower out simply to get to the previous. Acuña’s energy/pace combo is so tantalizing that if he stays wholesome he may at the very least be essentially the most thrilling of the three, however we’ve already seen one main damage from him and at the very least a pair different scares.
3:11
birds birds birds: Do you place any weight on the concept the HOF isn’t merely for guys who had been wonderful ballplayers, however who moreover carried a sure additional je ne sais quoi?  Like, possibly I’m nuts, however I can’t assist however really feel Andrew McCutchen has been a extra necessary a part of baseball than the statistically superior Bobby Abreu or Jim Edmonds.  Have I grow to be outdated and am simply complaining about computer systems stating I’m improper?
3:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe your subjective viewpoint is doing many of the work there. McCutchen is the one one among them who gained an MVP, however Edmonds was a key a part of two pennant winners, for instance.
3:15
Matt VW: Relating to baseball films: any love for Main League? Components of it admittedly haven’t aged nicely, however I believe its on the sector stuff–simply being concerning the sport and never baseball as vaporous metaphor for X–holds up simply nice.
3:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s a enjoyable film, and I prefer it loads, nevertheless it’s not on my high tier. Those I named share in frequent an inclination for sharper critiques of baseball’s tradition and its place because the nationwide pastime.
3:17
Hugh: Is Everson Pereira + Oswald Peraza sufficient for Stop?
3:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: no. If it had been, that deal would have been finished awhile in the past. My guess is the White Sox would need both Spencer Jones or Jasson Dominguez as the highest prospect from the Yankees, and that they’d need 3-4 prospects complete.
3:19
RH: The place do you want to sit down when attending a ballgame?
3:21
Avatar Jay Jaffe: excessive third base aspect within the infield is form of my default. That is the place my buddies and that i sit for our partial season package deal at Yankee Stadium
3:21
Avatar Jay Jaffe:
3:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: If I is usually a bit decrease with out paying via the nostril, even higher however I have a tendency to not splurge an excessive amount of for tickets, because it’s uncommon {that a} single sport means a lot to me once I can get into any ballpark I have to through the common season through my credential.
3:23
Chip: Associated to Cole’s elbow – have you ever ever heard of a participant in search of ‘a number of opinions’ on one thing that might be pretty benign? It looks like that’s the buried lede there.
3:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe there are second opinions much more than you most likely hear about, however whereas this may increasingly really feel like belt-and-suspenders territory, there aren’t many gamers on $300 million offers to train that form of warning over.
3:25
DF: I do know I ought to let it go, however isn’t the Mariners lacking out on Soto one of many largest whiffs of the offseason? I don’t know what discussions they could have had, nevertheless it’s onerous to think about a greater match on a one-year deal. And so they simply may have matched what the Yankees despatched to SD. Ideas?
3:29
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe in case you’re evaluating them, loads comes right down to tolerance of danger. The Yankees may afford to take one by clearing out a variety of higher stage depth plus King whereas realizing they will spend huge if wanted, and reside with the chance Soto would stroll away as a free agent, whereas the Mariners didn’t really feel like they had been as nicely positioned to take action given the even better chance Soto departed.
3:30
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, that’s it from me right here. Chats may be scarce for the remainder of the month attributable to PPRs and journey however I’ll attempt to get one in. Take pleasure in spring coaching!

 

Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the writer of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Rating) metric for Corridor of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports activities Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Community and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Corridor of Fame voter since 2021. Observe him on Twitter @jay_jaffe… and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.





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