Giancarlo Stanton Tries to Change Issues Up After a Dreadful 2023

Following a career-worst season and a few stinging public criticism from Yankees basic supervisor Brian Cashman, Giancarlo Stanton is making some adjustments. Earlier this week, the oft-injured 34-year-old slugger reported to spring coaching wanting considerably leaner than previously, and on Wednesday supplied the general public with the primary glimpse of his reworked swing. Positive, this all matches into the realm of spring coaching clichés, and batting observe cuts received’t inform us whether or not the adjustments can reverse his decline or enhance his probabilities of staying wholesome, however a rebound will surely be welcome because the Yankees try to get well from their worst file in 31 years.

Amid a season during which so many key Yankees wound up sidelined by accidents for important spells, Stanton performed in simply 101 video games, his lowest full-season complete since 2019, when he was restricted to 19 video games by left biceps and proper knee accidents. This time round, he missed 46 days attributable to a left hamstring pressure, the most recent in a litany of decrease physique accidents he’s incurred because the begin of 2019:

That’s 301 days on the injured record, not together with his lacking three video games within the 2019 ALCS in opposition to the Astros. In the meantime, Stanton has performed 391 common season video games, which prorates to a mean of 89 over a 162-game season.

It was with that irritating sequence of absences in thoughts that Cashman vented throughout a media session on the GM conferences in Arizona final November, “I’m not going to inform you he’s gonna play each recreation subsequent 12 months as a result of he’s not. He’s gonna wind up getting harm once more, extra probably than not, as a result of it appears to be a part of his recreation.” To be truthful, Cashman instantly added, “However I do know that when he’s proper and wholesome – apart from this previous 12 months – the man’s a terrific hitter and has been for a very long time.”

Stanton kept away from public remark on the time, letting agent Joel Wolfe commerce volleys with the GM, who went into injury management mode. “I worth Giancarlo Stanton as a participant,” he instructed reporters. “Undoubtedly, he’s one of many massive drivers once we do win. He’s one of many few gamers you convey to New York that hasn’t backed down, that has dealt with himself in knowledgeable method by means of thick and skinny.” The GM moreover spoke with each participant and agent to clear the air, and since then, each Cashman and Stanton have stored the substance of their dialogue non-public. “He is aware of my response to that,” stated the latter on the Yankees’ spring coaching complicated on Monday.

Till 2023, Stanton’s absences have been mitigated at the least considerably by his productiveness. He hit .248/.338/.493 for a 130 wRC+ from 2019–22, together with .273/.354/.516 (138 wRC+) in his 139-game ’21 marketing campaign, his healthiest one among that stretch. He made the AL All-Star group in 2022, however his ugly ultimate line (.211/.297/.462, 116 wRC+) hid a drastic cut up: He hit .285/.339/.523 (142 wRC+) by means of Might 24, his final day earlier than touchdown on the IL attributable to proper ankle irritation, however simply .166/.272/.425 thereafter, and to get to a fair 100 wRC+ for that stretch required hitting dwelling runs in his ultimate three video games. That sorry batting line appears to be like lots like final 12 months’s one (.191/.275/.420), although with rising scoring ranges, the latter was good for simply an 89 wRC+ and -0.8 WAR. Since that ankle-related IL stint, he owns a 93 wRC+ and -0.6 WAR in 699 PA. It ain’t nice.

As ever, Stanton struck out lots, however that wasn’t his main downside. By way of total strikeout charge, his 29.9% was down 0.4 factors from 2022, and lifeless even with ’18. His 34.1% whiff charge was proper at his Statcast-era common, down 2.4 factors from 2022, and down 0.3 factors from ’18. His 13.7% swinging strike charge and his 29.4% chase charge have been each equally under 2018, ’22, and his profession marks.

Likewise, Stanton continued to place a cost within the ball when he related, if not fairly as arduous as lately (I’ve omitted 2019 and ’20 attributable to their small samples):

Not all contact is created equal, after all. Stanton pulled the ball 41.1% of the time in 2023, up from 36.5% in ’22 and his highest full-season charge since ’17, when he was nonetheless a Marlin. Typically, pulled fly balls are usually the best, whereas reverse area groundballs are usually extra productive than pulled ones even after the banning of infield shifts. What we see with Stanton is that his outcomes on pulled groundballs — which was fairly good, as a result of he hit them so arduous — have deteriorated drastically, as have his outcomes on pulled fly balls:

As a result of xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA don’t account for spray angle, I’ve as an alternative used the annual league-wide averages for right-handed hitters the place I’d normally put these figures. You may see that Stanton was approach under these averages final 12 months regardless of exit velos about 5 mph above the league-wide averages. His launch angles have been notably excessive, provided that righties averaged -12.0 levels on pulled grounders and 34.7 levels on pulled fly balls. His 37.2-degree common on the latter was so excessive as to be unproductive; he was over 500 factors wanting the league common slugging proportion on fly balls. I couldn’t match it into the desk, however the estimated common distance on his pulled fly balls in 2023 was 344 toes, a full 20 toes shorter than his common from the 12 months earlier than; he averaged 356 toes in 2018 and 348 in ’21.

A few of the lacking manufacturing most likely owes to Stanton’s pace, or lack of it. His dash pace fell from the 69th percentile in 2018 to the thirteenth percentile by ’21, and was all the way down to the fourth percentile final 12 months. It’s probably that a few of that is intentional — his not operating arduous at instances is a strategy to forestall accidents or to keep away from turning minor aches into main issues — however it’s little doubt costing him hits right here and there, contributing to his shortfalls in batting common relative to xBA. In truth, a fast have a look at his participant web page exhibits that his charge of infield hits per groundball (IFH% on his participant web page) has fallen from 12.8% in 2018 to 4.4% in ’21, 4.1% in ’22 and a couple of.8% final 12 months.

In the meantime, Stanton obtained below much more balls than common, no matter course, resulting in the next proportion of innocent popups and flies. His 26.6% Beneath charge was his highest of the Statcast period, effectively above his 19.7% in 2022; he hadn’t been above 22% since ’16. He went 6-for-66 on these balls in 2023, which was really higher than his 2-for-52 in ’22 or his 4-for-70 in ’21; the issue was that these balls occupied a bigger share of his contact.

Although he nonetheless slugged .533 in opposition to four-seamers and .516 in opposition to sinkers, Stanton was a lot much less productive in opposition to fastballs of each varieties than previously. He struggled with sliders, as he normally does, and was completely helpless in opposition to curveballs, which was comparatively new. In 2018, he hit .233 and slugged .517 in opposition to curves, and even in ’22, he was at .222 AVG/.389 SLG; final 12 months, he plummeted to .115 AVG/.269 SLG. His warmth maps present that he has severe holes in his swing. Right here’s a comparability between his warmth maps for barreled balls in opposition to fastballs (the highest pair) and breaking balls (the underside pair); 2018 is on the left and ’23 on the appropriate. Be aware how a lot smaller the protection of the latter is — he didn’t barrel a single ball in opposition to pitches exterior these areas — and the way there’s a lot much less pink.

Right here’s a have a look at the development of Stanton’s total xwOBAs by Gameday zone:

Take a look at the sequence within the decrease proper nook of the strike zone. Inside this timespan, Stanton’s xwOBAs in that cell have dropped from .287 to .252 to .207 to .129 (see right here to zoom in on the numbers). In the meantime, the entire pink has disappeared from the higher and outer thirds of the zone. As Alex Chamberlain wrote final week, that higher third is especially necessary in the case of producing pulled fly balls, so it doesn’t assist that Stanton’s whiff charge in that a part of the zone has climbed from 23.1% in 2018 to a decimal or two on both aspect of 30% within the final two seasons — greater than double the league-wide charge.

Significantly in mild of the info, I’m hardly the primary to surprise if Stanton’s sequence of decrease physique accidents has compromised his flexibility, contributing to these open holes in his swing. Certainly, in September at Pinstripe Alley, Malachi Hayes constructed on FanGraphs contributor Esteban Rivera’s visible breakdown of some mechanical points Stanton was having, declaring the slugger’s elevated issue with low breaking balls and the best way pitchers have been going even decrease in opposition to him:

Sliders and changeups, making up a couple of third of the pitches he sees, are crossing the plate rather less than two inches decrease and somewhat bit farther away than they’ve over the previous couple of years. It seems like a small change, however the distinction exhibits up in warmth maps — particularly in opposition to right-handed pitchers — and it appears more and more clear that he simply can’t go down and get these pitches like he used to.

Stanton, whose work ethic and conditioning have by no means been unsure throughout the group, instructed reporters he spent the offseason specializing in mobility and on altering his swing. Improved mobility ought to assist him discover time in an outfield combine that can embody Alex Verdugo in left, Aaron Decide in middle, and Juan Soto in proper. Gentle-hitting Trent Grisham can assist in middle, and whereas that might imply Decide spending time in left area, as supervisor Aaron Boone urged final month, it’s most likely going to imply plenty of DH obligation for No. 99 as effectively, given his personal damage historical past. The state of affairs will solely change into extra crowded as soon as Jasson Domínguez returns from the Tommy John surgical procedure he had in September. Except Stanton can play the outfield — extra probably proper area, with Soto slotting in left — he stands to lose taking part in time. He performed simply 33 video games within the outfield final 12 months, and 38 the 12 months earlier than, and the outcomes have been fairly poor (a mixed -7 DRS, -4 RAA, and -0.8 UZR in 567 innings for the 2 seasons). Extra mobility actually couldn’t harm.

As for the promised adjustments, right here’s a glimpse of the 6-foot-4 Stanton (listed at 245 kilos however wanting lighter) showing sort of skinny subsequent to the 6-foot-7, 282-pound Decide, through Newsday’s Erik Boland:

Decide and Stanton after taking part in catch pic.twitter.com/kxZUjVx2sE

— Erik Boland (@eboland11) February 19, 2024

Right here’s a side-by-side comparability of Stanton’s stance, from final season to this 12 months, courtesy of The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner:

Aspect by aspect look of Giancarlo Stanton’s stance from movies I shot. Left is at this time. Proper is final 12 months.

We are going to see what it appears to be like like with the sport angle digital camera.

Stanton stated he was making some adjustments to his swing https://t.co/i2MsLICKPA pic.twitter.com/cs3Tmmp9m8

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 21, 2024

And right here he’s taking a BP reduce:

Right here’s Giancarlo Stanton pic.twitter.com/e9QOSWCgGy

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) February 20, 2024

Stanton is extra upright, along with his again leg nearer to the plate than earlier than, however at this stage of depth and the restricted variety of angles, it’s robust to say greater than that. On condition that it’s February, his adjustments — and people of all people else who reported to camp speaking about swing tweaks, new pitches, and improved coaching regimens — ought to be thought-about a piece in progress. With the addition of Soto, there’s a bit much less strain on Stanton to be one of many lineup’s main producers, however the Yankees can’t justify taking part in him if he remans under alternative stage. We’ll see quickly sufficient whether or not he can return to being near the damaging hitter he was.