Daniel Vogelbach Deal Continues Toronto’s Tepid Offseason

The Blue Jays signed a lefty-swinging first baseman/designated hitter whose title begins with a V and an O, but it surely wasn’t Joey Votto. As place gamers report back to camps, the longtime Crimson and all-time chief in video games performed by a Canadian-born main leaguer stays a free agent. As a substitute, the Blue Jays added Daniel Vogelbach on a minor league cope with an invite to spring coaching. At his finest, the well-traveled 31-year-old can assist the Blue Jays, however in context, his limitations present one more reminder of the crew’s underwhelming offseason.

Vogelbach’s deal requires him to make $2 million if he’s within the majors, in accordance to the New York Publish’s Jon Heyman. That is truly his second go-round with the Blue Jays, however you’re forgiven for those who want your reminiscence jogged. He spent 10 days with the crew in the course of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, between being bought from the Mariners and misplaced on waivers to the Brewers; inside that span, he performed two video games, going 0-for-4 with a stroll and two strikeouts. After spending all of 2021 with the Brewers, he break up ’22 between the Pirates and Mets, with an efficient stretch-run stint for the latter, after which spent final yr in Queens as properly.

Regardless of a productive opening month to his 2023 season, Vogelbach hit simply .213/.326/.348 (92 wRC+) by way of the tip of June, a span that included an eight-day benching for the needs of a psychological break. He was significantly better from July onward, batting .258/.355/.475 (131 wRC+) with eight homers in 138 plate appearances, besides, he was an afterthought in September. He made simply 5 begins that month, none within the Mets’ last 16 video games, with simply three of his 24 plate appearances for September coming in that span. Unsurprisingly, he was nontendered in November.

Even in a down season, Vogelbach once more confirmed a wonderful batting eye, chasing simply 24.1% of pitches exterior the strike zone and strolling 13.2% of the time; that stated, his strikeout charge crept to 25.4%, his highest since 2019. He didn’t get sufficient taking part in time to qualify for Statcast’s percentile cutoffs, however his 91.7 mph common exit velo and 50% hard-hit charge would have landed on the 86th and 93rd percentiles, respectively.

Vogelbach is a participant with apparent limitations. He didn’t play a single sport within the subject throughout his Mets tenure, had simply 5 for the Pirates earlier than being dealt in July 2022, and owns DH-caliber metrics at first base for his seven-year profession (1,059.2 innings, -8 RAA, -15 DRS). He went 0-for-15 with a stroll and eight strikeouts towards lefties in 2023, and has been totally helpless towards them for his profession (.129/.248/.215, 35 wRC+ in 323 PA). He’s by no means even tried a stolen base within the majors, a smart selection given his 2nd-percentile dash pace. That’s not the simplest participant to suit onto a roster, and if Vogelbach does follow the Blue Jays, he’s not more likely to get a ton of taking part in time until issues go improper elsewhere. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the incumbent first baseman, and Toronto signed the righty-swinging Justin Turner to a one-year, $13 million deal to function its major DH whereas recognizing throughout the infield, as he did final yr with the Crimson Sox. Turner hit for only a 105 wRC+ towards righties (.273/.335/.430 in 462 PA) in 2023, however that will have been an aberration given his 132 wRC+ towards them over the earlier three seasons. He doesn’t want a platoon companion.

Given the dimensions of the function in query, it’s not tremendously onerous to grasp why the Blue Jays signed Vogelbach as a substitute of the 40-year-old Votto, who grew to become a free agent after 17 seasons with the Reds and who scuffled in 2023. Coming off of August 2022 surgical procedure to restore tears in his left rotator cuff and biceps, Votto didn’t make his season debut till June 19, and whereas he homered off Austin Gomber in his second plate look, he hit simply .202/.314/.433 (98 wRC+) with 14 homers in 208 PA. Save for his slugging share and barrel charge, neither that slash line nor his underlying Statcast numbers had been nearly as good as these of Vogelbach.

The Blue Jays confirmed curiosity in Votto early within the offseason, with normal supervisor Ross Atkins saying, “Unbelievable repute, actually dynamic persona, actually vivid (particular person) that I do know our crew would embrace… However I believe that’s the case for most likely 15 groups.” Primarily based on Votto’s background, he added a possible for “huge impression in the neighborhood if he had been to be a Toronto Blue Jay.”

Regardless of the apparent enchantment, nothing ever materialized, and within the wake of the Turner signing, we will infer that the Blue Jays could not have been prepared to supply Votto — whose 2022 manufacturing was underwhelming amid his shoulder woes — sufficient taking part in time. Thus far, it doesn’t seem that any crew has provided the right combination of alternative and cash. On January 11, USA As we speak‘s Bob Nightengale reported that three groups had been serious about Votto, and in his Sunday pocket book just a few days later talked about the Blue Jays and Brewers as potential matches. The final report of a crew’s curiosity in him got here on January 24, when Heyman related Votto to the Angels. That very same day, Reds GM Nick Krall advised season ticket holders he had no plans to deliver again the franchise icon. Since these glints of curiosity, the Blue Jays added Turner and the Brewers signed Rhys Hoskins. In the meantime, the longer term Corridor of Fame first baseman has popped up on the NHL All-Star Sport within the firm of Gritty and different mascots and quoted Dylan Thomas on Instagram, however in any other case, he’s been quiet on social media.

.@JoeyVotto is having the time of his life on the @NHL All-Star Sport ?

by way of joeyvotto/IG pic.twitter.com/hBSOQfUhCr

— Cut4 (@Cut4) February 3, 2024

The Blue Jays/Votto connection has all the time been extra speculative than substantial, however, just like the Vogelbach signing, it’s not less than fascinating sufficient to underscore simply how unremarkable Toronto’s offseason has been. Coming off an 89-win season wherein it claimed the third AL Wild Card spot however made a fast two-and-through exit, the crew hasn’t made something that could possibly be characterised as an impression transfer, even after displaying indicators of grand ambitions.

For a short time, it appeared that the Blue Jays had received the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes, however alas that rumor proved unfaithful. With the attainable exception of signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, with whom they met earlier than he selected the Dodgers as properly, nothing else they may have accomplished would have been as impactful. However they not less than gave the impression to be pondering large by displaying sufficient curiosity in Cody Bellinger to be thought of co-favorites (together with the Cubs) to signal him as Christmas approached, and he stays a free agent as of this writing. As a substitute, in late December, the Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier — a spectacular fielder however a league-average hitter who turns 34 in April — to a one-year, $10.5 million deal, presumably to be their common middle fielder between Daulton Varsho in left and George Springer in proper.

After which there’s Toronto’s method to its third base state of affairs. Matt Chapman hit free company after an uneven season that included a .255/.346/.449 (121 wRC+) line by way of August 12, when he sprained his proper center finger in a weight room mishap, and a .163/.250/.302 (54 wRC+) line the remainder of the best way; he initially missed three video games after struggling the harm, then 15 extra after attempting to play by way of it. The Blue Jays, who reportedly provided Chapman an extension north of $100 million over 4 or 5 years earlier than he reached free company, prolonged him a $20.325 million qualifying supply, which he declined. Like Bellinger, he stays a free agent whereas the Blue Jays have moved on. Simply after inking Kiermaier, they signed light-hitting Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year, $15 million deal, then added Turner. Although he makes extra sense becoming into the utility slot vacated by Whit Merrifield, who just lately signed with the Phillies, Kiner-Falefa is presently projected to obtain essentially the most plate appearances of any Toronto participant at third base (231), with Turner, Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, and Eduardo Escobar additionally within the combine. The 35-year-old Escobar, who started final season as Vogelbach’s teammate on the Mets earlier than being traded to the Angels, signed a minor league cope with a nonroster invitation final week; he’s seeking to rebound from a dismal .226/.269/.344 (66 wRC+) efficiency in 309 PA.

Between Kiermaier, Kiner-Falefa, and Turner, that’s a not-so-grand complete of $38.5 million dedicated to free agent place gamers this winter, in need of sufficient cash to cowl the present-day worth of 1 season of Ohtani. Their different main league deal was for Cuban righthander Yariel Rodriguez — who spent 2020–22 with NPB’s Chunichi Dragons, primarily as a reliever — whom they signed to a five-year, $32 million contract. After pitching for Cuba within the World Baseball Traditional final yr, Rodriguez sat out the common season whereas establishing residency within the Dominican Republic so he may change into a significant league free agent. The Blue Jays intend to construct him up as a starter, however he would possibly wind up in Triple-A or in a multi-inning bullpen function as he begins his main league profession. In the meantime, the crew will roll with a beginning 5 of Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alek Manoah, the final of these coming off a dreadful season after a top-three end within the AL Cy Younger voting in 2022. Lefty Ricky Tiedemann, no. 28 on our new Prime 100 Prospects Record, may assist later within the yr, however has simply 36 innings above A-ball to his title, whereas righty Bowden Francis is being stretched out to offer extra fast depth. Whereas they’ve been “quietly monitoring” the continuing Blake Snell market, per Nightengale, the Blue Jays have by no means appeared more likely to spend large on beginning pitching this winter; as a substitute, they’ve centered on bettering their lineup.

Final week, Atkins stated, “At this level, additions that will be of significance would imply some stage of subtraction,” which didn’t sound like he was leaving the sunshine on for both Bellinger or Chapman. If this is kind of the Blue Jays’ roster, based on Roster Useful resource, their payroll sits at $235.7 million when it comes to precise salaries, up from $214.5 million final yr, and $248.7 million for Aggressive Steadiness Tax functions, a hair forward of final yr’s $246.1 million and someplace between the primary and second tax thresholds ($237 million and $257 million, respectively). That’s the sport’s sixth- or seventh-highest payroll, relying on which determine you’re utilizing to rank them, so it’s not as if the Blue Jays are going low cost.

Nor do they venture to be dangerous. We’ve got them forecast for 83.5 wins, fourth within the AL East however a part of a good group with the Yankees, Rays, and Orioles; solely 4.6 projected wins separates Toronto from New York, the projected first-place finisher. The factor is, the Blue Jays are proper on the level the place including further wins may enhance their odds above their 14.2% likelihood at successful the division title and 47.7% likelihood to make the playoffs. Whereas their AL East competitors has added marquee gamers like Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes, the tip results of the Blue Jays’ grand offseason simply seems like a collection of half measures.