The free agent market is lastly beginning to transfer. Rhys Hoskins is headed to Milwaukee, finalizing a two-year, $34 million contract with an opt-out after the primary 12 months, per Scoop Czar Jeff Passan. You don’t need to squint to see the match right here. Milwaukee wants hitting, Hoskins wants a spot to hit, and it’s all the time good to really feel needed. The choice successfully makes this a pillow contract for Hoskins, who ruptured his ACL in spring coaching and missed the complete 2023 season. (This looks like an excellent place to notice that the deal is nearly definitely nonetheless pending a bodily.) If he proves that he can nonetheless hit like Rhys Hoskins, he can choose out and go after a much bigger deal whereas he’s nonetheless a fresh-faced 31-year-old with the world at his ft, quite than a doddering, unemployable 32-year-old. If he wants one other 12 months to knock the rust off, nicely, I’ve heard nice issues about Milwaukee.
Hoskins ranked twentieth on our High 50 Free Brokers. Ben Clemens estimated that he would obtain a three-year contract for a complete of $45 million, which means that Hoskins fell in need of the estimate by way of years, however exceeded it by way of common annual worth. Michael Baumann did a variety of the legwork a pair weeks in the past, so I’ll depart it to him to remind you of simply how good a hitter Hoskins is:
The worth that Hoskins brings is clear. His energy may be streaky on a game-to-game foundation — a hazard of being a 3 true outcome-heavy hitter — however within the mixture, he’s probably the most constant gamers in baseball. Hoskins is a profession .242/.353/492 hitter, with a 13.5% stroll price and a 23.9% strikeout price. That’s a profession wRC+ of 126.
In 4 full seasons within the majors (discounting Hoskins’ 50-game rookie season and the 41 video games he performed in 2020), he’s by no means been value greater than 2.4 WAR, nor lower than 2.0. His full-season profession low in wRC+ is 112, whereas his full-season profession excessive is 128. You possibly can like or dislike the full bundle, however you already know what you’re going to get.
You bought that? This Hoskins man hits the baseball. The Brewers may actually use a man who hits the baseball. The one actual shock about this deal is that it concerned the Brewers spending cash. It marks the primary multi-year contract the crew has given since 2021, after they signed Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr. to two-year offers. (Bradley’s contract was structured like Hoskins’, with one 12 months and an opt-out, whereas Wong’s included a crew possibility for a 3rd 12 months that was not picked up.)
A little bit over a 12 months in the past, I wrote in regards to the commerce that despatched Hunter Renfroe from the Brewers to the Angels. Though it made sense from some angles, it was a rarity in that Milwaukee dealt away its finest hitter. Not solely did Renfroe’s 124 wRC+ lead the Brewers in 2022, it’s the third finest season on the plate by a professional Milwaukee participant over the previous 5 years. Christian Yelich ran a 174 wRC+ in 2019, and William Contreras put up his personal 124 wRC+ season in 2023. Since 2019, solely two groups have had fewer certified seasons with a wRC+ of 122 or higher: the Tigers and the Marlins.
With that in thoughts, I began pulling up different stats from the previous 5 years. Since 2019, Milwaukee’s 96 wRC+ has ranked twenty second in baseball. Its .406 slugging proportion ranks twenty first. Hoskins has a Steamer projection of a 115 wRC+ for 2024, which is 11 factors under his profession mark. Over the previous 5 years, simply 10 Brewers have reached that mark throughout a season wherein they recorded a minimum of 400 plate appearances. Hoskins has hit a minimum of 27 homers in each full season of his profession. Solely seven Brewers have reached that mark within the final 5 years.
If we simply concentrate on first base, the improve Hoskins offers turns into even clearer. Since 2019, Milwaukee’s first basemen have run a 99 wRC+, twenty sixth in baseball, whereas their 3.2 WAR (that’s 0.64 WAR per season), rank twenty third. Hoskins has averaged 2.8 WAR per 162 video games. He may underperform and nonetheless be an actual enchancment.
There may be loads of motive to fret a few decline. Well being is the rapid concern, although it must be reassuring that Hoskins had recovered nicely sufficient that the Phillies reportedly thought-about including him to their postseason roster. However well being simply compounds the present issues about Hoskins’ protection. He match completely into Philadelphia’s Dadaist interpretation of crew protection, which was heavy on lumbering, bat-first sluggers and light-weight on every part else. Nonetheless, whereas he has by no means shined defensively, it’s not as if he’s incapable of taking part in the place. The large, scary -21.7 Def mark over on his participant web page got here in 2018, when he spent almost all his time in left area. Though he put up a -15 in 2022, DRS had him as a web optimistic and DRP had him proper round common. Furthermore, it’s not as if he may deliver the Brewers down a lot additional in that regard.
Based on DRS, first basemen price the Brewers a mean of -1.8 runs per 12 months over the previous 5 seasons. For his profession, Hoskins has been value -2.3 per 162 video games. OAA sees a barely increased penalty, dinging Brewers first basemen 1.0 run per season in comparison with 3.6 for Hoskins. Nonetheless, that’s not precisely an enormous discrepancy. If Hoskins prices the crew 2.6 runs on protection, matching his career-worst 112 wRC+ would nonetheless represent an enormous general enchancment.
It could be an actual downside if Hoskins can’t hack it at first base anymore. Nevertheless, over the previous 5 years, Milwaukee’s designated hitters have a wRC+ of 83, fourth-worst in baseball. He wouldn’t need to hit a lot to be a significant improve there, both.
There’s additionally the matter of persona. Hoskins is beloved in Philadelphia and was a frontrunner within the clubhouse. It’s clear that his departure is due primarily to the truth that there’s no place to place him, particularly with Bryce Harper taking part in first base. Though at instances he was subjected to the wrath of the Philly Devoted, he was a homegrown participant who created some thrilling moments, and plenty of Phillies followers are unhappy to see him go.
It is a probability for Hoskins to make good whereas staying on a playoff contender, and it offers him one final shot at displaying the free agent market that he can play first base, as a substitute of getting relegated to DH. It’s additionally a transfer with little draw back for the Brewers. They get to herald a clubhouse man and fan favourite with playoff expertise, whereas additionally patching a significant gap. Some issues simply make sense.