Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 1/9/24

Visitor: I simply discovered out of your JAWS article that you simply had been a designer for kids’s books! Any titles you’re notably happy with from that section? Who’s in your board e book HOF?

Jay Jaffe: In 2002 I bought to place Venus Williams on the duvet, whereas in 2003 it was Sammy Sosa (oops, however have in mind these had been determined a 12 months prematurely).

Jay Jaffe: I additionally bought to do the covers of the 2002 and 2003 World Almanacs

Jay Jaffe: and a few cool science textbooks and a few dreadful mathbooks.

Kyle DB: HNY! Do u assume there’s any probability the Yanks signal Juan Soto to an extension? If not, do u assume Soto re-signs with the Yanks within the 2024 low season?

Jay Jaffe: with free company looming after this season, I doubt Soto goes to conform to an extension. I’d be considerably stunned if the Yankees find yourself signing him as a free agent given Hal Steinbrenner’s skittishness recently, however I wouldn’t rule it out.

Phil: Are you able to assist me perceive the sudden handwringing concerning the Dodgers and deferred funds? Didn’t Scherzer have like 50% of his contract deferred again when he signed with Washington in 2015? Is that this simply an anti-Dodger factor? Did the quantity of deferrals in Ohtani’s contract simply wake everybody as much as it being a factor groups do?

Jay Jaffe: It’s partly an anti-Dodgers factor, as they’re the Massive Dangerous Spenders shaming your favourite group’s lack of exercise, and partially a response to the extremes of the Ohtani contract, which TBH ought to in all probability be reported at a valuation nearer to the best way it counts for CBT functions, which is $46.07 million per 12 months.

Ed: What sort of worth does Brett Baty have? Can’t actually see him because the centerpiece for a Luzardo, beginning to really feel reminiscent a little bit of Andujar years in the past when it comes to commerce worth (with out the ~4 win season at 23)

Jay Jaffe: As a 55 FV prospect who scuffled in his rookie season, he’s nonetheless bought important worth and will but dwell as much as his above-average common billing, however you’re proper, he’s not going to be a centerpiece in a Luzardo deal.

Jeff Bann: Do u assume division realignment is coming inside the subsequent 5 years?

Jay Jaffe: sure, in all probability as a part of the enlargement to 32 groups.

Morlock Jimenez: Do you assume it’s time for bref to replace its Black Ink rating, possibly open it as much as league-leading performances in different classes?

Jay Jaffe: Is sensible.

Grandpa Cole: We simply had a lockout in 2022….are we headed for one more in 2026? House owners appear able to combat like they did in 1994

Jay Jaffe: Fairly presumably, however why fear about it? Nothing you or I can do aside from not purchase no matter bullshit the house owners and Manfred are shoveling

v2micca: I do know that loads of people far smarter than I’ve acknowledged that if the Braves can get 100 high quality innings from Sale within the common season and an efficient few begins within the publish season, that they basically hit the jackpot on this commerce.  However, am I simply hopelessly biased for my group, or is there a attainable world the place Sale produces at season that finishes within the high 7 in NL Cy Younger voting?  His stuff remains to be about nearly as good as ever.

Jay Jaffe: Sale had a 106 Stuff+ rating and a 3.80 FIP in 102.2 innings. Perhaps there’s a sliver of an opportunity he delivers a sub-3.00 ERA and FIP however I’d guess the innings footprint might be sufficiently small that he received’t get Cy Younger votes. AL relievers Bautista and Chris Martin (!?) apart, no one who didn’t qualify for the ERA title acquired a CY vote final 12 months

SteveO: When you might unilaterally add one participant not at the moment on the poll into Corridor, who wouldn’t it be?

Jay Jaffe: Dick Allen

Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: Poor displaying for Utley. Do you assume the writers will vote him in by 12 months 10?

Jay Jaffe: Utley’s been named on 45.2% of all ballots within the Tracker and even when that tails off a bit, that’s a really stable begin. In case you haven’t been paying consideration, we’ve seen some huge comebacks from a lot decrease debut shares. From right this moment’s piece:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: What’s extra, setting apart Bonds, Clemens, and Schilling for apparent causes, the best share of any participant to have by no means gained entry is simply 43.1% from Roger Maris. In final winter’s Tracker ballot, I guessed Utley would debut with 17%, so I’m fairly stoked he’ll probably double that, no less than.

Tyler: Is it bizarre that I’m desirous about how you’ll clarify Jose Ramirez’s down 12 months in 2019 and the way his agent simply instructed him to begin pulling the ball and it labored in ~15 years?

Jay Jaffe: I feel it’s very probably we’ll be speaking about Ramirez in a Corridor context round that point. He’s at 45.5/40.2/42.9 in JAWS — that 40 peak rating suggests a couple of 75% chance he’ll wind up within the Corridor sometime — and his 3.1 WAR from 2019 is his seventh-best season, so if he betters that he’s going to get important traction.

Monique – NY: In your opinion, do you assume MLB is headed in a great path? For some time individuals had been saying the sport is dying…is there any reality to that?

Jay Jaffe: i have a tendency to not get too wrapped up in questions like these however the recreation is on fairly good footing financially, and the 2023 guidelines adjustments did enhance the on-field product a bit. The RSN scenario might shake issues up however I feel the league is powerful sufficient and inventive sufficient to climate a number of the issues. I’m no knowledgeable in that space — take a look at the stuff from FG alum Travis Sawchik at The Rating.

Massive Time in ’29: So, loads of hypothetical work that will or might not pan out this 12 months, BUT assuming that unsigned gamers stay unsigned/select to retire/and so on., the 2029 Corridor of Fame Poll might probably sport Miguel Cabrera, Clayton Kershaw, Joey Votto, and Zack Greinke (plus Wainwright, who may stick round a la Buerhle, after which Strasburg, Adam Jones, Lorenzo Cain, and so on. That’s loads of lifting there, however because it stands, that’s an entire lot of Participant suddenly.

The place does that first 12 months checklist of hypothetical entrants (I see no less than two gamers in there signing with groups in a while this offseason) rank all time amongst first 12 months teams of gamers on the poll?

Jay Jaffe: Nothing will high the poll class of 2013: Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Piazza, Schilling, Sosa, and Lofton. If not for PEDs and, uh, different stuff we could possibly be 7 HOFers from that group.

Jay Jaffe: However sure, that 2029 poll could possibly be one thing if none of these guys performs once more, although I imagine Cabrera is the one one who’s actually executed.

Anon21: Nonetheless writing “2023” on all of your chat titles, Jay?

Jay Jaffe: oh FFS

Jay Jaffe: I’ll change that after the chat.

Joaquim: Is there an opportunity that the dodgers flip Busch and/or Vargas  for controllable, close to MLB prepared prospects at positions of higher medium-term want? (SS and OF come to thoughts). I.e. flip them for related sort of participant, maybe with a weaker bat profile however not position-blocked for years to come back?

Jay Jaffe: Each of these gamers are in all probability down in worth a bit after 2023 however yeah, I feel that’s attainable.

Phil: Dipoto famously stated that he shoots to assemble a roster that wins round 54% of its video games. The offseason remains to be younger(ish), however would you say he’s on tempo for that this 12 months? Appears to me their many strikes are stuffed with sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Jay Jaffe: It appears he’s much more involved about trimming payroll than shoring up final 12 months’s near-miss squad. The strikes aren’t essentially unhealthy ones, however I don’t see something daring that’s going to undoubtedly enhance the group

Dilly Canine: Ought to I mood expectations for Grayson Rodriguez? Not anticipating the two.58 ERA he put up after being recalled from the minors however is a 3.50 ERA cheap?

Jay Jaffe: Dan Szymborski revealed the Orioles’ ZiPS on November 27 and it included every participant’s eightieth and twentieth percentile projections together with the median one. Rodriguez’s eightieth percentile ERA is 3.49 so it’s not unreasonable, simply not the most probably consequence.

Visitor: Thanks for 20+ years of enlightening work and interesting writing!

Jay Jaffe: And thanks for the sort phrases.

mike: The Twins have executed the least work up to now……what do you assume they’ll do first?

Jay Jaffe: To my eyes they may use one other starter and one other bat to place into the 1B/nook OF/DH combine

Angelo: Are you stunned on the large hole in help bw Mauer and Utley? They appear like extraordinarily related candidates – very excessive peak, comparatively restricted variety of impactful years. Mauer will get some cross for being a C, however Utley’s profession WAR remains to be ~10 increased and the height was increased too. I can see how some would choose Mauer and never Utley, but it surely’s onerous to think about that Mauer spending 5 years on the finish of his profession impersonating James Loney must be the distinction in nearly double the help

Jay Jaffe: Not likely stunned. From the 1-1 decide to the MVP award and the opposite honors in addition to the mega-contract, Mauer was typically appropriately appreciated at a nationwide stage even when his contract triggered Stockholm Syndrome for a sure share of Twins followers. Utley, who bought a later begin to his profession, by no means received a Gold Glove, and was bypassed by MVP voters in favor of extra common teammates, was all the time going to battle for consideration by comparability.

Let’s face it, although, profession totals nonetheless do have some bearing on Corridor of Fame votes, and Utley being in need of 2,000 hits whereas Mauer reached the milestone regardless of shedding a piece of every season to catching is a notable separator of the 2.

Chilly Turkey Stearnes: Ought to the HOF contemplate growing the utmost variety of gamers that may be voted for on a single poll to assist clear the backlog?

Jay Jaffe: In 2014, I used to be on a committee that really helpful precisely that, and our middle-of-the-road proposal requested them to extend the poll measurement to 12. The Corridor tabled our suggestion then, and present ballots are a lot much less crowded by comparability, so I don’t see such a change occurring.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: That graph provides you an concept of how a lot stronger the 2014 poll — the strongest in trendy historical past — was relative to this 12 months’s.

Marshall: What do you make of Marcus Semien’s HoF probabilities? He’s placing collectively a really robust peak, however 2b don’t are likely to age gracefully.

Key Flaw: Do you assume if each voter’s poll was revealed with their identify, wouldn’t it truly do something? I’m all for it, however evidently all of the grumpy voters aren’t ashamed of their grumpiness, and the highlight wouldn’t disgrace them into higher voting. It’s kind of like how the idea was that folks had been impolite and jerks on the web due to anonymity, however then Fb and NextDoor occurred and we realized nah…they’re nonetheless impolite and jerks even with their identify connected.

Jay Jaffe: I feel the impact of publishing each poll can be minimal, since you’re proper, some grumps simply need to do performative grumping.

Jay Jaffe: LOOK AT ME, I’M VOTING FOR NOBODY BUT THREE!

Bravos: Hello Jay-  Thanks for every little thing you’ve executed for HOF readability!  As a Braves fan, I’m questioning if after your entire years of study — and a number of the outcomes you speak about in your article — make you rethink somebody like Dale Murphy.  Higher or worse candidate than when he was on the poll?

Jay Jaffe: A bit higher, IMO. I wrote about Murphy at size for final 12 months’s Modern Period poll (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…) and my evolution in considering. I’d a lot slightly see a high-peak celebrity like Murphy within the Corridor than a serial compiler DH corresponding to Harold Baines, and assume that the constructive facets of his character can be a welcome antidote to a number of the icky stuff we’ve been compelled to confront yearly within the voting.

Chilly Turkey Stearnes: How does the make-up of the HOF poll get determined?  Does everybody with 10+ years of service get an opportunity on it?  Wanting on the 2024 poll, I see no less than 9 or ten names who aren’t even worthy of consideration by any measure.  We all the time get no less than one weird homer vote due to that.

Jay Jaffe: Everybody who appeared in 10 seasons (not the identical as 10 seasons of service time — one recreation in a season is ample) and has been retired for 5 years is within the pool. Then a 6-member Historic Overview Committee sifts via these; every candidate must be nominated by any 2 members of the committee.

Jay Jaffe: Most of these guys received’t make the Corridor, however for a lot of, simply being on the poll *is* the distinction. And the homer votes, no matter. It was one factor to get bent off form when there have been 14 JAWS-qualified candidates crowding one another however for essentially the most half, these are fairly innocent and add a little bit of shade on the margins.

Steve: When you discover in your knowledge a participant who surpasses the JAWS requirements, but isn’t mentioned as an Eras Committee candidate, do you imagine it’s price your time to make the case on his behalf? In different phrases, is it higher to argue for Bobby Grich slightly than introduce Joe Schlabotnik into the dialogue, with the belief that it will take years for his case to achieve momentum?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve made the case for Bobby Grich, to no avail, however that case hasn’t gone away. It’s not like I’ve to rewrite it yearly.

One purpose why I achieve this a lot mid-career dialogue of gamers’ Corridor circumstances is that I would like individuals to grasp what they’re going to be when the time comes to think about them. That, IMO, is a part of the legacy of JAWS and my work. That I can write one thing like I did on Utley and Mauer on the finish of the 2018 season (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/retiring-mauer-and-utley-both-worthy-of-co…) hasn’t damage their causes; I used to be involved Utley would observe Grich’s one-and-done path.

Anon21: Do you assume the Braves have executed sufficient rotation-fortifying to remain a transparent favourite over the Dodgers? Snell or Montgomery would look very nice, and so they solely value cash!

Jay Jaffe: I’d be somewhat stunned in the event that they add one other spendy starter and assume they’ll do one thing extra depth-driven. Perhaps one other man like Paxton whom they attempt to coax 20 begins out of for a cheaper price.

Rob: Have you ever executed a Shohei JAWS calculation? His profession WAR is lower than I might have guessed (I could be lacking one thing).

Jay Jaffe: Wrote about Ohtani and JAWS right here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep…. He’s at 34.7 now. Even with out accounting for his accidents, struggles and the shortened 2020 season, that’s 5.8 WAR per season, and seven.9 per 650 PA. I’m undecided what the hell you count on that’s going to be higher than that.

Ohtani goes to be high quality, Corridor-wise. The stats might be a part of the story however the unprecedented success he had in a two-way capability would be the actual driver of his case. And I’m fairly positive he’ll get there.

Izzy: RE: Phil’s query about deferments… judging by the response to Bobby Bonilla Day and the Dodgers, I don’t assume most followers perceive deferments.

Jay Jaffe: Very a lot no

Key Flaw: Ignoring Vet Committee shenanigans, how a lot of a lift do you assume enjoying on sure groups (cough…Yankees…) give to a the HoF voting? How a lot odes enjoying your complete (or 95%) of your profession on one group enhance?

Jay Jaffe: Ask Don Mattingly concerning the Yankee enhance. Ask Andy Pettitte. Ask Bernie Williams, David Cone, or David Wells. Do you see them in Cooperstown? No? Then I don’t assume enjoying for the Yankees provides one which large of a lift.

Jay Jaffe: There are gamers within the Corridor from earlier eras who had careers equal to these guys, together with some Yankees, but it surely’s been a very long time since candidates reaped such benefits.

Eh?: Why is service time manipulation so taboo in baseball however not different sports activities? Within the NHL for instance, a group will come out and say they’re sending a participant to the minors after 9 video games with a purpose to not burn a 12 months off of his entry-level contract. If that occurred in baseball, the MLBPA can be slamming the grievance button.

Jay Jaffe: As a result of the MLBPA is a a lot stronger union.

Brad: Who do you assume are some under-the-radar gamers who’ve been lacking from the Eras Committee ballots?  Vern Stephens is a man who I all the time thought by no means bought a good look.

Jay Jaffe: Bobby Grich, Lou Whitaker, Dwight Evans, Keith Hernandez, Dave Stieb, David Cone and Brett Saberhagen are guys I’d wish to see on Period Committee ballots. Stephens is thirty second amongst shortstops (46.3/34.4/40.3), which doesn’t actually do something for me; if I need to add an old-time shortstop to the Corridor it’s Invoice Dahlen.

Sanford: Congrats on 20 years of JAWS, Jay. When you might solely make one change to the HOF voting course of, would you a) make all ballots public, b) get rid of the 10-player most, or c) do one thing else?

Jay Jaffe: whereas I might welcome the ability to tweak some facets alongside the traces you identify, the one I would like most is a separate recurring poll devoted solely to Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball, evaluated by historians with particular experience in that space. As it’s, they’re a part of the Basic Baseball pool together with anybody else — gamers and execs — who made their largest influence earlier than 1980.

KC Ache: How do you’re feeling concerning the pitch clock tweaking?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume it’s necesary.

Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: Perhaps I’m simply disenchanted as a result of I feel Utley is an apparent HOFer and 45ish% appears kinda pathetic.

Jay Jaffe: He was by no means going to get in on the primary poll given the form of his profession.

Craig Breslow: Am I going to remorse taking this job?

Jay Jaffe: I simply noticed that Chaim Bloom was employed by the Cardinals in a entrance workplace advisory function. Decide which group you need to do this for in 3-4 years.

Grandpaboy: Let’s assume that (a) the Cubs have roughly $60m to spend, and (b) they’ll ultimately signal Bellinger for an AAV of round $25m. How  ought to they unfold out the opposite $35m…and the way do you assume they will?

Jay Jaffe: They undoubtedly want beginning pitching (they’re twenty second in projected WAR) so a reunion with Stroman is smart. Or signing Snell. In all probability want a stronger 1B choice than Mash Mervis, and possibly one other 3B choice. Justin Turner can be a great match.

Ty: On an analogous word to Marshall’s query, what the chance that Corey Seager results in the Corridor?

Jay Jaffe: he’s a pair beats behind Lindor, Correa, and Semien, so I didn’t embrace him within the midsummer replace, however he’s now bought two large postseasons and a second top-three end within the MVP voting. If he can keep on the sector, he’s bought an honest shot however he’s averaged simply 96 video games over the previous six seasons.

HoF: What are the factors for being a HoF voter?  Can a voter be expelled forom this group and has it ever occurred?

Jay Jaffe: You want 10 consecutive years with a BBWAA-affiliated group to be eligible as a voter. I’m positive there have been members expelled however the one one for whom it was a giant public present (no less than that I can recall) was when Dan LeBatard was suspended a 12 months and barred from future HOF voting for giving his poll to Deadspin in 2014. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/10269700/dan-le-batard-barred-futu…

JB: MLB had an article asking who one of the best participant in MLB proper now.  Who’re your high 5?

Jay Jaffe: In some order: Ohtani, Acuña, Betts and Decide… after which I’m not so positive who I’d put in there. Seager, Freeman, Soto, Semien, Julio Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson? I might identify no less than half a dozen others however in all probability not be as satisfied any of them belongs as I’m of the primary 4 names.

Ben: With elevated consideration on short-career/excessive peak with Utley, Wright, and (quickly) Buster, what do you concentrate on JR Richard and Doc Gooden?

Jay Jaffe: The 2 pitchers aren’t within the class of Utley and Buster (Wright is a pair beats behind). Richard had 4 1/2 actually good seasons earlier than his stroke however collected simply 22 WAR. Gooden had 53 WAR however simply three seasons price greater than 3.7. He’s just under Pettitte and above Roy Oswalt in S-JAWS, a extra believable candidate however that 12.2-WAR season is the one purpose he’d be thought-about.

CB: Any takeaways from Beltran’s efficiency up to now?  Do you assume he will get in a bit faster than you initially predicted final winter?  Are you involved that there’s sufficient moralizing that there’s a agency cap on his stage of help (like we’re seeing with Manny and A-Rod)?

Jay Jaffe: I’m inspired that he’s added a web of 12 votes, essentially the most of any candidate, and is polling arount 65%, however I feel the opportunity of agency resistance remains to be there. Some % is rarely going to vote for him.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, it’s been nice to get again to this . Thanks a lot for some nice questions.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, and notably because it’s the sixth anniversary of my very own job interview, I ought to name consideration to our job posting. We’re trying to rent an affiliate editor to switch Jon Tayler, who has left the fold. Come edit my 4,000-word items! Come drink beer on the Winter Conferences! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-is-hiring-seeking-a-full-time-as…

Jay Jaffe: And with that.. I’m off.