Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/21/23

Dan Szymborski: IT’S A CHAT!

Champdo: So what number of bats do you suppose Colt Keith will get for the Tigers subsequent season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m with Jason right here, I feel 300-400 PA is cheap. Until he flops, I feel the Tigers will determine the right way to play them, even when the place proper now could be unsure

Houzer: May Willy Adames be an choice for the Tigers at 3B in a commerce? Perhaps like a Sawyer Gipson-Lengthy for Adames deal?

Dan Szymborski: Adames can be enjoyable. I don’t suppose Gipson-Lengthy by himself will get it executed th ough.

Dan Szymborski: And it could be depending on the place the Brewers are.

Dan Sanchez: The Orioles appear to match up nicely with the Mariners on a bats-for-arms commerce. Assuming Kirby and even Gilbert are off the desk, what wouldn’t it take to get one in all Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo? Westburg straight up? Mountcastle or Hays plus Joey Ortiz?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard crazier concepts.

Houzer: If Colt Keith turns into the Tigers 2B, does that make Jace Jung a tradable asset? Its robust to see him sticking at 3B, and Keith appears to be the higher prospect

Dan Szymborski: It’s doable, however the Tigers have sufficient holes that one prospect succeeding doesn’t doom one other

Paul: Hello Dan, the rumored contracts for Yamamoto are nuts to me, it looks as if the numbers simply maintain going up.  I do know will probably be written about when he indicators, however what sort of manufacturing does ZiPS suppose Yamamoto will likely be good for over the following 10 years?  The numbers being floated are what you’ll pay a man you count on to place up ~30 WAR for you.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks he’s actually good, however listening to individuals speaking about 300 million would make me a bit uneasy

Dan Szymborski: There *is* some uncertainty right here.

Doug: How involved do you suppose individuals needs to be about Yamamoto’s top?

Dan Szymborski: Some, however not TOO a lot

laxtonto: Merry Christmas Dan!

Joe Don: If you happen to owned the Rangers, what strikes would you enable and/or urge your GM to make this low season

Dan Szymborski: You too!

Dan Szymborski: Assuming it’s not simply “signal Ohtani,” I feel Jorge Soler simply plugged in as DH can be enjoyable. And I feel Imanaga’s change into underrated

Marshall: Hey Dan!! We’re beginning to hear whispers in regards to the CBA ending in 2026…do you suppose we’re headed for an additional lockout? Missed video games in 2027?

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually a risk. The CBA didn’t actually repair many longstanding disputes

Todd Bonzalez: When will ZiPSE-Mini lastly be included into this web site? I can’t wait to ask an excel spreadsheet all of my baseball-related questions!

Dan Szymborski: I’m very confused.

Dr. Shrimp Puerto Rico: Would you give Bellinger 6/150?

Dan Szymborski: Solely in *very* particular circumstances, as a result of from a generic standpoint, I don’t suppose that’s deal.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve to be a fringe playoff contender *proper now*. CF needs to be an absolute *want*. And I’ve to have an proprietor that’s not going to show off the spigot after spending $25 million

striker: Stop for Ortiz, Norby, Beavers, Povich and Armbruester. Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: I’d actually do this if I’m the White Sox

Dan Szymborski: I feel the O’s may truly blanch at that nonetheless

J Peterman: What are the possibilities that Jordan Walker turns himself right into a succesful OFer within the subsequent yr or two?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, 30%?

Dan Szymborski: He’s nonetheless new to the place

Dan Szymborski: However he was simply SO terrible

Mike Z: Fantasy baseball Q…. I’ve the third choose within the upcoming draft, do I take Aaron Choose or Juan Soto?

Dan Szymborski: Neither?

Dan Szymborski: Two off Acuña, J-Rod, Carroll, Betts, Witt are possible off the board

Dan Szymborski: take one of many remaining three

laxtonto: What’s the worst “prospect” in all of baseball in keeping with ZIPs final yr?

Dan Szymborski: Arduous to say as a result of the worst prospect in baseball might be somebody at a really low stage I didn’t give a projection to

Dan Szymborski: However of gamers truly *thought-about* prospects, the most important distinction between notion of a prospect and the ZiPS projection would have been Alex Ramirez

Visitor: Dan, recognize all of your work on ZiPS as standard. Did any projections for Cleveland prospects elevate your eyebrows in any respect? DeLauter projected for a 95 OPS+ stood out to me

Dan Szymborski: I imply, he was a university man so he SHOULD advance in a short time if he’s going to change into one thing

Ben: What contract would ZiPS suggest for Yamamoto? And do groups contemplate the posting payment a part of the contract (i.e., one thing Yamamoto should primarily pay for), or do they know they should pay full worth plus simply chunk the bullet and bear the accountability of the (hefty) further payment all by themselves?

Greg: I used to be barely shocked how a lot ZiPS likes Bieber this yr.  Reds have been linked to him earlier than, you suppose he can be the impression acquisition of their rotation they need to be on the lookout for?

Dan Szymborski: Cling on within the final one

Dan Szymborski: As for Bieber, he can be a enjoyable acquisition

Dan Szymborski: Although it doesn’t really feel just like the Reds can be extremely concerned with a rental

Grayson: Is ZiPs bullish on any of the Rox close-to-MLB prospects (Amador/Beck/Thompson/Fernandez)?

Dan Szymborski: Dishonest to attempt to discover out forward of time!

Pepiotti pizza: Do you suppose R Pepiot goes to be the following large factor within the Rays rotation?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t suppose so and I’m solely a bit extra optimistic, however it IS the Rays

Harris: I seemed for you on the winter conferences however couldn’t discover you 💔

Dan Szymborski: I used to be round!

Dan Szymborski: I most likely solely spent a few half-hour within the space you wanted your credential for

Dan Szymborski: The FG crew spent quite a lot of time hanging out in that store space of the resort with the water and close to the gingerbread design place

Visitor: Does ZiPS agree: snakes alive?

Dan Szymborski: I imply, some snakes are

Visitor: How do the cats react when you’re making an attempt to get them off the keyboard to do a chat?

Dan Szymborski: It’s principally Justinian and he provides me squeaky meows

Dan Szymborski: It’s extra annoying after I’m on the radio

Jon: Who’s it that leaks trades? Is it some random intern that overhears one thing and texts a reporter?

Dan Szymborski: There are a complete lot of pathways

Merry holidays: Good piece on the Guardians right this moment, with encouraging projections. Laptop apart, what thinks you of the low value fruitcake of a roster they’ve assembled?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if I’m *fairly* as bullish as ZiPS, however it’s a fairly good roster. Cleveland did rather well within the ZiPS prime prospects the previous couple of years, so I assume it’s not tremendous stunning

Sloth: This most likely has been requested in one in all your chats earlier than, however not in a single I’ve seen. Are you associated to the poet Wisława Szymborska?

Dan Szymborski: Extraordinarily distantly

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have it in entrance of me as it might be a bizarre factor to maintain at my PC, however I’ve received my entire household tree going again a good distance

Dan Szymborski: the closest well-known particular person I’m associated to is Malamud, who was my grandfather’s second cousin

Dan Szymborski: and I’m associated to Maximilian von Szymborski (Johann Nepomuk Maximilian von Szymborski), who was rumored to be having an affair with Prince Albert’s father.

Dan Szymborski: “Nevertheless, one other suggestion, made in a 1937 article on the heredity of the royal caste, contended that Szymborski himself had been Luise’s lover and the daddy of her son Albert!”

Dan Szymborski: Unlikely in fact

Ryan: I do know that making enjoyable of HoF ballots isn’t a factor we actually do, however Invoice Ballou simply solid an solely ARod and Manny poll, and I feel we have to recognize this contribution to The Discourse

Dan Szymborski: There wa sa fairly dangerous three particular person poll

Dan Szymborski: I’m making an attempt to scale back my HoF meltdowns

laxtonto: Is there a noticeable distinction within the variety of Rangers questions now that they received the WS?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t THINK so

Visitor: Is somebody who hits their ninety fifth percentile end result in 2023 much less more likely to hit their ninety fifth percentile end result in 2024?

Dan Szymborski: no

Dan Szymborski: A technique in that ZIPS is nicely calibrated is that any form of over/underneath efficiency, whether or not group or participant, isn’t predictive of future over/underneath efficiency

Dan Szymborski: Although that’s a blended blessing

Dan Szymborski: As a result of if it WERE a factor, then it means there’s nonetheless some low hanging fruit left

SalisburySteak: You wrote within the projection that KC must fully change the best way they’re run. Does the sudden FA spree rely?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure actually

Dan Szymborski: As a result of right here’s the factor: I push *aggressive* groups to spend aggressively.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the identical objections to tanking as another writers do. These are the incentives constructed into the system.

Dan Szymborski: Like I don’t thoughts a crappy small market group spending $60 million in a yr wherein they’re dangerous. However that’s solely IF they’re going to go excessive and spend a *lot* when the group truly is nice

Dan Szymborski: Like that Pirates run within the 2010s, I had no quibbles once they sucked and had been low-cost

Dan Szymborski: downside is that once they WERE good, the payroll didn’t go excessive

Unabashed fantasy query: Nonetheless an enormous Matt McLain fan? Not frightened in regards to the strikeouts and the chase fee?

Dan Szymborski: I’m, and probably not

Visitor: Faulkner is a greater comp for Joyce than Nabokov. Zips received that one flawed by a mo;e.

MEGALODON: Spencer Strider mentioned that he doesn’t respect anybody who likes the brand new Olivia Rodrigo album. Do you agree?

Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m very confused

Visitor: Do you suppose Baily’s bat will come round, or will he stay a light-weight hitter within the bigs?

Dan Szymborski: I feel he’ll all the time be a protection first man

Willie: You see nick martinez as a starter or reliever for the reds?

Dan Szymborski: I feel they’ll be versatile together with his function

Jon: I’d actually do this if I had been the White Sox

Jon: Dan, I touch upon this grammar as a result of I care.

KC Ache: Any shot the Royals arent final place in division?  I swear the division is weaker however we’re solely mildly improved

Dan Szymborski: I feel the Royals are higher than the White Sox

Harris: I had the toughest time discovering anybody on the winter conferences. I didn’t see anybody submit the place they had been or what occasions to say hello.

Harris: Even driving as much as Opryland there was not a single signal saying that the winter conferences had been being held

Dan Szymborski: You already know, individuals can simply tweet at me and I’ll reply!

Dan Szymborski: I met a number of bloggers that approach there

MilwaukeeBeerJays: I simply purchased ffxv however haven’t had an opportunity to play it but. Have you ever received into your automobile and performed it?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve performed it, although it’s most likely one in all my least favourite FF video games

Jim: does Joey Estes make the A’s rotation out of Spring?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be very shocked

Dan Szymborski: Oh, ZiPS would supply 9/252 for Yamamoto

Jimbotron: Do you suppose some individuals consider that Zips is basically simply your alter ego and all these projections are simply pulls from a hat? And in that case, what number of nightmares have you ever had about being a projection system?

Dan Szymborski: Some individuals clearly suppose that

Dan Szymborski: I’m all the time amused once they discuss respect/disrespect in a projection. Like, that’s not the way it works

Mark: I’ve just lately been having fun with studying historic baseball evaluation writings (The Hidden Sport, early web articles, and so on.). Wished to ask when you have any private suggestions in that realm of literature.

Dan Szymborski: You most likely SHOULD learn all of the Abstracts.

Dan Szymborski: they’re foundational! even when invoice didn’t get all the things proper in the long run

MilwaukeeBeerJays: This got here up at lunch the opposite day: shredded cheddar or a slice of American cheese on prime of a scorching canine?

Dan Szymborski: Neither! I don’t do cheese on canines

Dan Szymborski: give me onions/mustard/sauerkraut

Dan Szymborski: OR non Cincinnati chili

Harris: I did tweet at you 👀

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t I tweet again? It’s uncommon after I miss one

HaveGloveWillTravel: Stunned Montgomery’s market hasn’t developed sooner. Is he simply each group’s fallback in the event that they don’t land Yamamoto at this level, or are groups leery of the contract he’s reportedly in search of?

Dan Szymborski: I feel he’s ready out Yamamoto to a level

Bendix: Who would say no to a Eury Perez for Jackson Holliday commerce?

Dan Szymborski: That will be ballsy enjoyable. However I feel each groups would err on the facet of sticking with who they’ve

Jon: I would need to be a playoff contender proper now. Grammar issues

Jon: I would need to have an proprietor

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: I’m making an attempt to sort these rapidly so I can reply as many as doable as a result of I’ve to go at 1!

Dan Szymborski: Most occasions I’m writing it’s not a race. This can be a race!

Sir Nerdlington: Are we lastly beginning to see that the $/Struggle is extra asymptotic than linear because the participant turns into extra elite?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has moved to a stepwise operate

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda bizarre, it wouldn’t a easy curve both

Dan Szymborski: As a result of there seems to be a ceiling the place groups begin to get uneasy

Dan Szymborski: like no one has a $60 million wage

Dan: What’s for lunch right this moment, sir?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing!

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been doing alternate-day fasting for the reason that finish of the season

Dan Szymborski: between that and no beer, I’ve misplaced 27 kilos

Further crispy bacon?: Who Is extra toasted – L Lynn or T Story?

Dan Szymborski: Lynn I feel

Jon: When a minor league participant is traded mid season, it lists his orgs out of order on their participant web page. For instance, see Logan O’Hoppe. Lists Angels, Phillies, then Angels once more.

Dan Szymborski: I’m unsure in the event that they’re essentially meant to be so as?

Avast ye: Am I loopy for liking the additions the Pirates have made to their rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Not CRAZY

Dan Szymborski: however I’m simply not notably a fan. Particularly Gonzo

q: in the event that they miss out on yamamoto, ought to the yankees pivot to signing one other free agent starter to a multi-year deal? the entire others more likely to get multi-year offers seem to be big-time dangers

Dan Szymborski: I feel so. The necessity for an arm doesn’t evaporate

Visitor: Vientos or Baty at third for the Mets this yr?

Dan Szymborski: Sure.

Scotty H: Do you or ZIPs like Chapman or Bellinger at 6/150 higher?

Dan Szymborski: God

Dan Szymborski: I’d like Bellinger higher, that’s as a result of age

Dan Szymborski: Three years is fairly vital

Ben: Does ZiPS weight inside the season in any respect? For instance, if 2 gamers had the very same total stats and underlying stats for the complete yr final however one participant was nice within the 1st half and horrible within the 2nd half and the opposite was horrible the first half and nice the 2nd half, would ZiPS view them in another way with all else being equal?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t as I’ve discovered that so noisy that it misplaced its worth

Dan Szymborski: It’s a kind of issues that there’s possible sign in there, however it’s merely overwhelmed by the noise

Dan Szymborski: It’s like bobbing for apples in a swimming pool

Skyline: Triston McKenzie’s projection seems solid-how frightened are you about his capability to repeatedly hurl a baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Actually no less than mildly so

Dan Szymborski: Each time I see him, I simply wish to make him a sandwich

Mark: How do the logistics of visitor talking on the radio work? Do they ship you a chilly e mail? Do you receives a commission a flat payment for half-hour of dialog? Or is it voluntary and simply one thing enjoyable to do? A part of working at Fangraphs if somebody desires to host a author?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t go into all of it

Dan Szymborski: However usually talking, individuals will ask me in an e mail or a Twitter DM if I’d like to return on

Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs doesn’t have official offers with anybody in that regard

Dan Szymborski: However I’ve been doing radio hits for 20 years and amongst baseball nerd circles, there’s some familiarity with me

Dan Szymborski: and I’m a straightforward visitor to have on

Dan Szymborski: And I’ve executed some bizarre issues. I had a daily Friday look on Canada Laughs on SiriusXM for awhile earlier than it transmuted into Canada Talks

Unabashed fantasy query: Attention-grabbing that you just point out Cincinnati fashion chili. That is primarily the “meat sauce” on prime of a Rochester “rubbish plate.” Have you ever ever had one, and the way a lot did you find it irresistible?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do rubbish plates.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like meals touching

Phil: Would signing each Imanaga and Montgomery be a greater use of cash than signing Yamamoto alone? I’m questioning if that’s what Craig Breslow is considering, anyway.

Dan Szymborski: Personally, I would favor the previous on the similar wage

Jon: Why would you not need it to be in chronological order?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t categorical any feeling on the topic! I simply don’t suppose it’s supposed to be inside the season

Chris: Congrats on 27lbs that’s not simple

Dan Szymborski: It helps to begin as a fatass.

Dan Szymborski: My stretch purpose is to get again to my pre school weight of 175

Unhappy Fan: Is all hope misplaced for the Mariners?

Dan Szymborski: No, however they’re going to expire of time to determine that offense rapidly

Unabashed fantasy query: Is alternate day fasting what it appears like?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Dan Szymborski: I like this one as a result of you might have diminished energy, however there’s much less purple tape concerned.

Dan Szymborski: You don’t need to rely something

Dan Szymborski: I can simply eat usually at some point, which is simple to do. And consuming nothing the opposite day is fairly simple to manage too.

Jim: How about alternate day FATTING?

Dan Szymborski: I feel fatting is extra environment friendly for those who do it day by day

MEGALODON: Strider went on Silly’s channel to debate albums of the yr and took a shot at Rodrigo

Dan Szymborski: I’ve to confess to not realizing her music

Dan Szymborski: the final 5 – 6 years, I feel I’ve lastly aged out of recent music

Dan Szymborski: Like I nonetheless purchase a ton, however quite a lot of it’s 90s/00s bands new releases

Chris: Can AI artwork make a bit considering the ethics of AI artwork?

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps?

Dan Szymborski: However within the meantime, right here’s Mt. Bartolo

Dan Szymborski:

Jon: Dan, if I’m coming off as pricky in my feedback to you it’s simply because I don’t know the right way to act in entrance of celebrities

Dan Szymborski: Calling me a star is  HUGE stretch

Jon: What web site do you utilize for AI artwork?

Dan Szymborski: Midjourney, although I do have secure diffusion

Dan Szymborski: On that word, I do have to go out as I’ve a busy afternoon

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody! See you all within the new yr