With Mookie Betts’ Transfer to Second, Dodgers Infield Dangers Coming Up Quick

Earlier than the high-tide information of Shohei Ohtani’s free company determination washed it away like a sandcastle on the seashore, Dodgers supervisor Dave Roberts made some waves together with his feedback to the media through the Winter Conferences. Whereas his breaking of the omerta relating to the crew’s pursuit of Ohtani acquired many of the consideration — partly as a result of the remainder of the narrative pickings out of Nashville have been so slim — Roberts divulged the crew’s plans relating to their center infield scenario by saying that Mookie Betts can be a full-time second baseman in 2024. This got here on the heels of GM Brandon Gomes stating that the Dodgers plan for former high prospect Gavin Lux to be their on a regular basis shortstop.

Betts, who turned 31 on October 7, is recent off an MVP-caliber season through which he set a profession excessive with 39 homers, posted a 163 wRC+ (his highest since his 2018 AL MVP-wining marketing campaign) and completed tied with Ronald Acuña Jr. for the most important league lead with 8.3 WAR. Betts additionally break up his time between proper area, the place he’s gained six Gold Gloves (most not too long ago in 2022) and the center infield. His foray onto the filth took place as a result of Lux, whom the crew deliberate to shift from second base to shortstop final 12 months within the wake of Trea Turner’s departure, tore his proper ACL in late February. Amid a winter of cost-cutting, Lux’s transfer to shortstop left second base within the arms of 23-year-old rookie Miguel Vargas, with Max Muncy shifting to 3rd base to interchange the departed Justin Turner, and Chris Taylor within the outfield combine after Cody Bellinger was non-tendered. Lux’s damage left Taylor and light-hitting veteran Miguel Rojas probably the most viable shortstop choices.

Betts primarily performed second base within the minors, however in Boston he was blocked by Dustin Pedroia, therefore the transfer to proper area. Even filling in for Pedroia after he suffered a season-ending damage in 2014 (Betts’ abbreviated rookie marketing campaign) and recognizing there sometimes in subsequent years, he made simply 30 main league appearances on the keystone earlier than 2023, together with 25 begins; he had seven of the previous and 5 of the latter in each 2021 and ’22 with the Dodgers. In 2023, Roberts shortly put him into the combo, and the rejuvenation of Jason Heyward — whom the crew signed to a minor-league deal after he was launched by the Cubs with one 12 months to go on his eight-year, $184 million contract — gave the Dodgers some further flexibility.

Although Rojas hit for only a 69 wRC+ and Vargas an 85 wRC+ earlier than being optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma Metropolis on the All-Star break, Heyward and Betts helped to salvage the scenario. The 33-year-old Heyward hit .269/.340/.473 (121 wRC+) whereas taking about 93% of his 377 plate appearances in opposition to righties, and ending with 5 DRS, 5 RAA, and 1.0 UZR in 79 begins and a complete of 624 innings in proper area. Betts held up his finish of the cope with his glovework in addition to his bat. In 62 begins and a complete of 485 innings at second base, he completed with 6 DRS, 1.0 UZR, and -1 RAA. He even made 16 appearances (12 begins) at shortstop, a place he hadn’t performed professionally since 2013, after which simply 13 video games in Low-A and two innings within the Arizona Fall League.

The Dodgers not too long ago re-signed Heyward to a one-year, $9 million deal. He’ll once more platoon in proper, however whereas Betts might spot on the market, he and the crew are getting into the season with the belief that he’ll be kind of full-time at second. Based on the supervisor, Betts feels extra engaged within the motion from pitch to pitch and believes that enjoying second base places much less put on and tear on his physique, a questionable assertion given the hazards of the infield, notably whereas pivoting on a double play. Again in 2016, Betts mentioned so himself: “There’s extra working within the outfield, however so far as bodily abuse, the infield has much more of it.” If the purpose wanted additional underscoring, simply over a 12 months after he mentioned that, Manny Machado’s overly aggressive takeout slide injured Pedroia’s left knee and hastened the top of his profession.

Even when shifting Betts seems to be the right name, the shortstop scenario feels unsettled. Lux was drafted as a glove-oriented shortstop, however as he bought stronger and bulkier throughout his time within the minors, he stiffened up and seemed much less and fewer more likely to keep there. He handled a wide range of accidents even earlier than the ACL tear, in addition to rashes of throwing inaccuracy that appeared extra psychological than bodily. Lux and the Dodgers acknowledged many of those points when it seemed as if he was lastly on the opposite aspect of them. He started to show a nook offensively in 2022, when he posted a 114 wRC+ in 471 PA because the beginning second baseman (with left area blended in). Lux hasn’t performed shortstop often since a two-month mid-season stretch in 2021, and earlier than that not for the reason that first half of ’19. Now he’s additionally coming off a serious knee damage. We went again to look at a bunch of Lux at shortstop throughout that 2021 window (and extra in addition to), and apart from a 15-game stretch through which he dedicated 5 errors, he seemed playable, if a bit unsteady:

To be truthful, Lux’s defensive metrics so far are at worst a blended bag:

That mentioned, we don’t know the way Lux will look post-injury, how lengthy it can take him to jell with Betts as a combo, or whether or not the elevated bodily demand of their new positions will affect their offensive output. With Ohtani now within the fold and a lot driving on this period of Dodgers baseball, these dangers should be mitigated, and the present make-up of Los Angeles’ roster doesn’t do this. The Dodgers have put up with “playable, if a bit unsteady” when Muncy has performed any place however first base throughout his tenure. With Ohtani and Freddie Freeman entrenched on the DH and first base spots, Muncy will probably be compelled to play third base each day; his metrics there final 12 months (-3 DRS, -5 RAA, -7.7 UZR) counsel that it might once more be a bumpy experience. If Lux is substandard, the left aspect of LA’s infield protection will probably be notably weak.

Then there may be the query of depth. Rojas and Taylor every have shortstop expertise, however each are effectively into their mid-30s. Vargas and bat-first Prime 100 prospect Michael Busch are below-average athletes who’re every below-average defenders, particularly Busch; the latter additionally struggled on the plate in his first publicity to main league pitching, hitting for a 49 wRC+ in 81 PA. Prospect Jorbit Vivas, who reached Triple-A final 12 months and who’s at the moment ranked no. 11 within the system, ought to actually solely play second base because of an absence of arm power.

Replace: Following publication, the Dodgers traded Vivas and left-handed pitcher Victor González to the Yankees for shortstop Trey Sweeney with a view to clear 40-man house for Ohtani and the not too long ago re-signed Joe Kelly. Beneath one can find Eric’s report on Sweeney from the forthcoming Yankees prospect record, the place he’s evaluated as a 40 FV prospect:

The twentieth general decide in 2021, Sweeney adjusted to professional ball fairly shortly regardless of his small faculty pedigree, and is a .248/.361/.429 hitter within the minors. Although the Yankees have solely ever deployed him at shortstop, Sweeney is slower and heavier-footed than the everyday huge leaguer on the place. A few of the sweet-looking performs that he makes on the very extremes of his vary would look extra routine for a median huge league shortstop. Sweeney is constructed like Josh Jung, and it’s uncommon for an athlete that measurement to be an affect shortstop defender. Right here, Sweeney is evaluated as a below-average shortstop defender, and his final function will probably be a heavier mixture of second and third base, based mostly on his talent set.

This has been the crux of Sweeney’s defensive analysis at FanGraphs since his draft 12 months, and now I’ve additionally cooled a bit on his bat. His arms have a lot pre-swing motion that I fear he gained’t persistently be on time in opposition to main league fastballs, and stiffness in Sweeney’s decrease half makes it tough for him to scoop decrease pitches. His underlying bat-to-ball efficiency — like his 8% swinging strike fee in 2023, propensity for airborne contact, and persistently wonderful plate self-discipline — is proof on the contrary. Sweeney tracks pitches very effectively and checks loads of heuristic bins (left-handed, carried out instantly as a professional regardless of his small faculty background) that I have a tendency to love, however he doesn’t play a premium place effectively or have an effect software, so he profiles extra as a reserve infielder.

If their roster stays because it’s at the moment constituted, the Dodgers are exposing themselves to some disastrous low-end outcomes, the place their infield protection is meaningfully dangerous. They want an exterior addition to stabilize issues. There are much less splashy methods for the Dodgers to guard themselves, although with a comparatively skinny shortstop free agent class most of them are going to return through commerce. We agree with Ken Rosenthal’s suggestion {that a} commerce for Milwaukee shortstop Willy Adames, a stellar defender, makes loads of sense for each side. The Orioles have a shortstop surplus (Joey Ortiz, Jorge Mateo), whereas the Twins, Rangers, and Blue Jays all have a number of acceptable utility-type choices.

With the arrival of Sho-Time in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers’ lineup boasts three of the majors’ high six hitters by wRC+ in Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman. That embarrassment of riches shouldn’t obscure the crew’s remaining wants, and whereas they begin with a rotation that has shed Clayton Kershaw, Lance Lynn, and Julio Urías, they shouldn’t neglect the work to be executed on their infield.