Detroit, Raise Up Your Weary Head!: Tigers Signal Kenta Maeda

Based mostly on the St. Louis Cardinals’ exercise earlier than Thanksgiving, the going fee for a right-handed pitcher in his mid-30s with a latest monitor document of excessive quantity however unimpressive outcomes is one yr within the low eight figures with a membership choice for yr two. For a mid-30s right-hander with higher outcomes however a significant harm in his latest previous? Apparently you must assure the second yr.

The Detroit Tigers have landed Kenta Maeda, late of division rival Minnesota, for 2 years and $24 million. The highest two groups on this yr’s AL Central standings each have holes to fill of their rotations, as Minnesota has to exchange Maeda and Sonny Grey (who reportedly signed with the Cardinals this morning), whereas the Tigers want a substitute for Eduardo Rodriguez. (As a lot as I like Maeda, he’s most likely not that.)

Detroit’s rotation will most likely stand or fall based mostly on the efficiency of Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Matt Manning, that much-hyped trio from so way back they may as properly be Technology Okay. However three pitchers doesn’t a rotation make, and Maeda fills Detroit’s want for high quality depth.

In accordance with Bob Nightengale, this contract straight-up does what it says on the tin: No choices, no bonuses, no opt-outs. That should be a refreshing change for Maeda, who’s coming off one of many weirdest long-term contracts in baseball historical past, an eight-year pact with so many incentives and escalators you’d suppose his agent was Johann Georg Faust. I’ll be sincere: It by no means occurred to me that Maeda’s authentic Dodgers contract would ever expire till I learn his identify on a listing of upcoming free brokers this fall.

Maeda’s first foray into free company solely lasted just a few weeks. So what do he, and the Tigers, come away with?

If the 2020 Mookie Betts commerce rigmarole was Parks & Recreation, Maeda was its Aubrey Plaza. He completed second in Cy Younger voting, nevertheless it was a little bit of a bizarre yr. Shane Bieber was the runaway winner, having had the type of yr the place if you happen to don’t vote for him individuals take a look at you humorous on the subsequent BBWAA assembly, leaving a muddled area vying for no. 2 on the poll. Maeda was excellent, with a 2.70 ERA and career-bests in Okay% (32.3) and BB% (4.0).

Nonetheless, 2020 was the one season in historical past through which a beginning pitcher with 66 2/3 innings pitched may find yourself on a Cy Younger poll. Had Maeda been stretched additional, sure load-bearing elements of his season (particularly, a .208 opponent BABIP) may not have stood as much as the scrutiny of a 33-start marketing campaign.

In August of the next yr, Maeda tore his UCL, then missed all of 2022 recovering from surgical procedure to reconstruct the ligament with an inside brace. Maeda made it again for the beginning of the 2023 season, and was again on the IL with a triceps pressure. In his final begin earlier than occurring the IL in April, Maeda suffered an entire programs failure, permitting 11 hits and 10 earned runs in simply three innings. That constitutes one out of each 5 runs Maeda allowed in all the 2023 common season. However as soon as he returned in late June, Maeda was nails:

Greater than that, Maeda was dependable. He took his flip each day trip from the time he returned in June till the final two weeks of the common season. Is he a 200-inning workhorse? After all not. Maeda hasn’t certified for the ERA title since his rookie yr in 2016, and hasn’t even gotten to 110 innings in a season since 2019.

However between the pandemic and the torn UCL, Maeda actually hasn’t had an opportunity to throw 150 innings in a yr since 2019. Evaluating Maeda’s repertoire from his Cy Younger finalist yr to his first yr again post-injury, the distinction isn’t large, notably when you think about that Maeda is three years older and didn’t throw that arduous to start with:

I don’t need to maintain going again to the Cardinals, however that constitutes the majority of the exercise on this sector of the free agent market to this point, so I don’t have a lot alternative. Previous to inking Grey to a deal, I feel numerous the confusion round St. Louis going after Gibson and Lynn was based mostly within the assumption that the Cardinals are at all times going to at the least attempt to be good. And given the previous, oh, 30-odd years of baseball historical past, you perceive why individuals suppose that. The Cardinals are at all times good; 2023 was solely their second shedding season of the twenty first century.

However these are signings a crew makes when it cares extra about getting innings than the standard of these innings. The Tigers getting Maeda is the other. He’s a little bit older, and he’s bought minor sturdiness considerations. Huge whoop. Each pitcher has sturdiness considerations of some type these days.

Maeda was a league-average pitcher general this season, ending bang-on at an ERA- of 100. After he bought his triceps harm straightened out, he was even higher. And over a seven-season main league monitor document, league-average is the ground for what we’d anticipate from Maeda. If the Tigers solely get, say, 25 begins out of him, that’s advantageous, as a result of they’re shifting into contender mode. They want their no. 3 or no. 4 starter (relying on what different strikes Detroit makes, and the way a lot you belief Manning and Mize) to really maintain them in video games now, not simply get them by means of video games.

Steamer has Maeda penciled in for 132 innings, a 4.15 ERA, and a pair of.0 WAR in 2024. Let’s use that as a tough baseline. Final offseason, the Phillies and Cubs went after starters who may give them 150ish innings of league-average pitching, and paid $72 million over 4 years to Taijuan Walker, and $68 million over 4 years to Jameson Taillon, respectively.

Even taking a pessimistic view of Maeda’s age and sturdiness, two years and $24 million is beginning to seem like a coup for the Tigers. If Maeda pitches as much as his normal requirements in any type of quantity, $12 million a yr is a discount. If he struggles to remain within the rotation, or if the Tigers retain Rodriguez, or exchange him with an equal or higher front-of-rotation starter, Maeda has loads of expertise pitching out of the bullpen, notably within the playoffs. Maeda has appeared within the postseason yearly he’s performed within the U.S. and made it to October wholesome, and out of 27 appearances he’s solely made 4 begins.

And let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Maeda is a complete write-off. Two years at $12 million per isn’t that large a wage for a crew to eat, even a crew just like the Tigers, that’s a number of years faraway from tickling the $190 million mark in annual payroll. Maeda’s wage is just half what the Tigers are paying Javier Báez, who posted a wRC+ of simply 61 this season. And people two symbolize Detroit’s solely wage commitments previous the top of the 2024 season. I don’t suppose Maeda will flip right into a pumpkin, however even when he did, the Tigers may work round it.

As nifty a bit of enterprise as that is, it’s most likely not the transfer that will get Detroit excessive. Maeda, like Mark Canha, who was acquired by commerce earlier this offseason, is a really good supporting piece, not a franchise-changer on his personal. However the Tigers have loads of time, and presumably, cash to search out that participant earlier than the offseason ends.