Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/7/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! Welcome to the primary offseason version of my Tuesday chat!

Jay Jaffe: That is additionally very presumably the final one among these I conduct for just a few weeks in my present abode, as The Huge Transfer from the residence the place I’ve spent the previous 16 years — the on a regular basis skilled a part of my writing profession, as it’s — to our new dwelling additional south in Brooklyn is scheduled for per week from Saturday.

Jay Jaffe: It’s all very thrilling and tense and there’s lots to do, as you may think about. Since I’ll be with out a pc setup for just a few days, I’ll must work forward, therefore the unlikelihood of a chat subsequent week.

Anyway, yesterday I wrote about Clayton Kershaw’s surgical procedure and Lance Lynn’s choice: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-kershaws-surgery-and-lynns-declined-o…

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the present

Votto: What ought to I do that offseason? (Assuming that no matter I select is what makes me pleased) Is it to retire? Take a bench function with the Reds (once more, assuming they’d have me)? Or signal with one other crew – and which crew?

Jay Jaffe: Congrats, Joey! If that is it for you, you’ve had a splendid profession and also you’re headed for Cooperstown as a one-team star. When you have the urge for food, nonetheless, I’m certain there’s a touchdown spot for you as a part-time DH/1B/hitting guru/chessmaster. The Blue Jays are a logical match given your Canadian heritage, the Angels will virtually definitely want a brand new DH, and the Diamondbacks could possibly be a great place with an up-and-coming crew

Jay Jaffe: That stated, if the Reds can squeeze you onto the roster, they may make loads of sense because the development arrows look like pointing in the fitting path.

Kevin: is being a Roberto Clemente Award nominee or winner a HOF vote consideration for you together with the opposite apparent efficiency concerns?

Jay Jaffe: Probably not. It’s a knowledge level concerning a participant doing good in his group, however the single most unsavory canine**** candidate of this millennium — from a personality standpoint, I ought to make clear — received one earlier than he went across the bend, in order that sort of reductions its utility for me.

Eddie: What do you seeing NYY doing this offseason (except for planning on bunting extra)? An entire lot of concern over (largely) nothing from Hal’s press convention. Most essential nugget in all probability got here after when Jack Curry famous Yamamoto is of nice curiosity to them.

Jay Jaffe: They actually do must make no less than one marquee addition, possibly even two. Yoshinobu Yamamoto definitely fills a necessity, and my guess is that they’ll see what it might take to land Bellinger. I additionally suppose they may wind up buying and selling Oswald Peraza, who struggled final yr at age 23 however graded out nicely as a prospect and has six years of management remaining, to assist them some place else

Matt VW: Fascinated with Counsell’s new contract: is there a case to be made that managers have gotten extra helpful as bullpen deployment and upkeep is turning into extra elaborate?

Jay Jaffe: The in-game tactical stuff remains to be only a fraction of a supervisor’s job, albeit one which does crtically depend on timing and the power to transform a variety of information right into a plan of motion that will get a crew’s buy-in. The softer elements — means to steer a disparate bunch of people and to behave as a face of the franchise for the media — are an enormous a part of the job as nicely. MLB supervisor salaries have lengthy lagged behind these of different coaches, so it’s not stunning that they’re lastly catching up. Good on Counsell for utilizing his leverage to assist make that occur.

Scorching Range Chef: Which Division do you suppose could have probably the most attention-grabbing offseason when it comes to trades and FA signings? NL West given the truth that the Giants want some star energy, the Padres are run by AJ Preller, the Dodgers shall be making a run at Ohtani and must put collectively a rotation, and the DBacks are coming off a shock World Sequence look? AL West as a result of Dealer Jerry all the time has one thing up his sleeve? AL Central as a result of it’s such a winnable division that every marginal improve may make the distinction? Or D) Different?

Jay Jaffe: NL West for the explanations you point out, AL East as a result of the Yankees are the 800-lb gorilla within the room. As for Dealer Jerry, the previous yr has proven that the emperor has no sleeves.

Benny: What do you make of the argument that Davey Johnson had two thirds of a Corridor of Fame managerial profession, but in addition one third of a Corridor of Fame taking part in profession, so he ought to be a Corridor of Famer?

Jay Jaffe: Meh, that’s not likely the way it works. There are numerous gamers within the Corridor who had okay managerial careers, no less than for awhile, and a variety of good managers who had respectable taking part in careers, the purpose of the Corridor is to acknowledge any person who kicked ass in a single facet or the opposite.

Visitor: Hello Jay. How do you are feeling a second world collection MVP impacts Corey Seager’s HOF case? I do know a number of Cy Youngs haven’t helped some circumstances, however nothing appears extra essential than being the principle cog in profitable a number of titles.

Jay Jaffe: it helps somewhat, definitely, however he’s considerably behind contemporaries corresponding to Lindor (identical age) and Correa (one yr youthful) in JAWS in addition to some like Bogaerts and Turner who’re older. This was his first season above 4.0 bWAR since 2017; he wants to have the ability to keep on the sector and carry out at a excessive stage to catch up; if he can try this, the postseason stuff will put him over the road

All I Need for Christmas Is Ale: What’s your favourite seasonal beer across the holidays? As a Californian, I’m a giant fan of Firestone Walker’s Cinnamon Dolce Nitro Stout (don’t overlook the surge pour!) and shall be pouring one out for my first Christmas with out an Anchor Steam Christmas Ale.

Jay Jaffe: Good query. I don’t chase a ton of vacation beers anymore, so I’m as more likely to simply accept a favourite darkish stout or porter within the colder months. I do love the Sierra Nevada Celebration Ale as a vacation beer

Boomstick: Liked Kiri Oler’s article on Nelson Cruz upon his retirement from baseball. I realized lots about Boomstick, from his humanitarian efforts to the mentorship he supplied to youthful gamers to the Rangers’ scorching canine named after him. Hardball query: have you ever ever eaten a Boomstick Scorching Canine?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve by no means eaten a Boomstick scorching canine. Not against making an attempt it (as a share) however i’ve by no means been in a ballpark the place one was being served

1st Ohtani Query of Tens of millions this Offseason: MLBTradeRumors’s three surveyed writers unanimously predicted Shohei to the Dodgers, predicting a 12-year $528M contract that might tie the very best common annual worth and take him by his age-40 season. Sir, your ideas?

Jay Jaffe: That appears about proper however I’d anticipate him to get each the $ and AAV title belts in a single fell swoop

Captain ACAB: What do you consider Bartolo Colon’s HOF case? Have you ever written about it but?

Jay Jaffe: He’ll be on the poll this winter. I enormously loved the man’s profession, particularly its third act from the time he joined the Yankees, however he doesn’t actually have a robust case for the Corridor (simply 46.2 bWAR) even earlier than we acknowledge that his PED suspension principally kills his candidacy

Jay Jaffe: And the identical goes for Nelson Cruz, by the way in which. He did an excellent job of incomes his method again into the sport’s good graces, is held in excessive esteem by groups and teammates, however as I stated on Twitter the opposite day, it might look completely silly and ridiculous for the BBWAA to elect a participant who was truly suspended for PEDs when clear penalties have been in place after rejecting a number of corresponding to Bonds and Clemens, who have been alleged to have used throughout a time earlier than the testing-and-penalty framework was in place.

Sanford: Congrats on the brand new dwelling, Jay! What neighborhood are ya shifting to (in the event you don’t thoughts my asking)? I’ve been renting in NYC for some time now however trying to purchase quickly too

Jay Jaffe: I’m not going to be too particular about the place in a public discussion board, besides to say that it’s inside strolling distance of Prospect Park.

Better of luck shopping for, holy hell is it an ordeal

JC: Have you ever tried any AI bots for baseball questions? Those I’ve tried are horrible

Jay Jaffe: No. I’ve accomplished little or no taking part in with AI. I’m not gonna be the one who feeds and trains the machines

Captain ACAB: Does Dusty Baker give a HOF speech in his lifetime?

Jay Jaffe: Sure. Summer season of 2027

Jon: Does Stuff+ seem someplace on particular person participant pages?

MostlyToasty1: Is Nick Martinez lastly going to be a full-time SP subsequent yr or are potential consumers extra fascinated with his multi-use function?

Jay Jaffe: Good query. I don’t get the sense that he has the stuff to be a full-time starter. On the very least he’s going to have to chop that stroll fee if he’s going to outlive in that capability

Matt VW: Hindsight is 20/20 and the dialog on pitching nonetheless had a robust “horses gotta horse” bent to it on the time, however is placing 276.2 innings on 20-year-old Dwight Gooden a consider evaluating Johnson’s HoF candidacy?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, it’s powerful to carry that towards Johnson particularly — these have been the instances and Gooden held up fairly nicely below the workload, or no less than that wasn’t actually the reason for his downfall. That stated, we don’t have pitch counts for him (or anybody else, no less than systematically) till 1988 so it’s a bit tougher to guage on a extra granular foundation.

It’s a query that Johnson has considered, nonetheless. Once I was researching my piece I got here throughout a current Q&A he did with MLB’s Invoice Ladson (https://www.mlb.com/information/q-a-with-former-mets-manager-davey-johnson). This was the closing trade:

MLB.com: In addition to the Mets, you managed the Nationals, Orioles, Reds and Dodgers. Do you suppose you’re a Corridor of Fame supervisor?

Jay Jaffe: Johnson: I don’t suppose something about that. That’s the least of my worries. After I retired in 2013, my job is being a superb father and husband. I handle my canine, chickens, and I’ve good properties now. Once I look again on my [managerial] profession, I hope I gave everyone probabilities. I additionally hope I didn’t abuse the pitchers and harm their careers.

Jay Jaffe: sorry, needed to break that up

Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you get squirmy by the concept of the pitcher main the league in walks profitable the Cy Younger (Snell)?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t adore it within the summary and I actually don’t get pleasure from watching Snell nibble and stroll 4 guys per night time however he’s proven a knack for sequencing and suppressing arduous contact, (word the profession -0.62 hole between his ERA and FIP) so I do consider these walks are much less impactful than they’d be within the arms of a much less expert pitcher

That is the way it works: Truly, that’s how Bonds+Clemens will get in. Some beloved, much less infamous PED person will get in no matter his suspension (no, I don’t suppose it’ll be Cruz), then sufficient voters will say, ‘OK, guess it’s simply too unfair and inconsistent to not take Bonds/Clemens subsequent’.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Muncy was quoted as saying his extension was “in all probability below market.” Is that really true, although? The wRC+ retains creeping down, and the 3B protection is…erm…not nice.

Jay Jaffe: So sure, the extension was virtually definitely below market.

Visitor: Within the case of somebody like Colon, do we have to go strictly on numbers? If I have been a author and I made a decision to vote for him partly primarily based on his numbers and partly primarily based on his different contributions to the sport– particularly, the house run he hit and the jiggly-belly gif– would that be so mistaken? He straddled eras. He had an increase, a fall, and a redemption arc. He introduced pleasure to many, and he was intermittently very, superb. Why can’t that be sufficient?

Jay Jaffe: Look, the world and the Corridor may be higher locations if we acknowledged these issues for what they’re however the Corridor is meant to be a method of honoring the elite performances and most impactful figures within the recreation’s historical past and I don’t suppose you may simply get him onto these admittedly subjective tiers with out opening the door to dozens of different guys who, for instance, did comparable with out getting suspended.

Reds Enjoyer: Why are my Redlegs not talked about extra within the Bellinger discussions? Our payroll goes to be ridiculously low (even for us) and the match appears excellent to me. 4 years/ $100 million, let’s trip!

Jay Jaffe: he’s going to get rather more than 4/$100M

MostlyToasty1: I do know he’s coming off an elite GG-winning defensive yr in CF, however does Brenton Doyle run the chance of shedding taking part in time subsequent yr if the bat doesn’t come round sooner or later? What does a sensible ceiling appear to be for him?

Jay Jaffe: Nicely, the Rockies gave over 1400 PA to Raimel Tapia and his 77 wRC+ so it’s fairly clear they’ve solely a partial inkling of easy methods to navigate this. I feel they must hope the bat will come round however Eric Longenhagen put grades of 20/30 on his hit software and 30/40 on his recreation energy, with a 40 FV total grade, which isn’t even low-end common materials. At finest, primarily based on my learn of the grades (I actually have seen little or no of his play and am not a scout anyway), my interpretation is that he may outdo himself and will get into that low-end common bucket for just a few years.

Jason: Are there any starters you suppose match inside Arizona’s value vary? I’ve seen Lorenzen as a guess however I’m not satisfied he truly strikes the needle in any respect.

Jay Jaffe: Eduardo Rodriguez may be an choice however I don’t see why they couldn’t pursue any person like Jordan Montgomery, whose AAV will in all probability be within the low $20Ms. It’s not like they’re operating $200M payrolls. In the event that they’re unwilling to pay to maintain this aggressive window, direct your pitchforks in the direction of Ken Kendrick

Simply Fowl: Ought to Ohtani be cautious of the Dodgers’ doubtful historical past of pitchers’ well being?

Jay Jaffe: ought to the man with two TJ procedures (one modified)… wait you misplaced me there

Farhandrew Zaidman: Any floor stage (or deeper) takes from the Steinbrenner press convention? Declaring AZ/HOU as an excuse to not spend feels weak, and pre-meditated going all the way in which again to CBA negotiations.

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t hear, tbh. He’s clearly a really risk-averse and largely controversy-averse proprietor, which might be much less of a giant deal if he have been in a special market or had a special final identify. In case you’re the Yankees, typically you simply gotta hit the fitting gamers along with your pockets, however that entails selecting the best gamers, too.

Dmytro: Suppose Rodon makes a bounceback? What do underlying stats inform us about him when he’s wholesome, why did he cease lacking bats?

Jay Jaffe: on that topic… I didn’t see Rodón maintain any stage of efficiency for very lengthy that provides me explicit hope for a rebound, BUT his monitor file clearly illustrates a capability to battle his method out of the weeds, and that’s not nothing. A cycle of again troubles may be very powerful to interrupt, and I’m guessing that an offseason of not making an attempt to battle the clock shall be helpful, which is to say that I feel you/they simply must hope that they flip the web page on a nightmarish yr and go ahead with a clear invoice of well being

Kyle: What do you make of Harper (by way of Boras) presumably hinting that he’d like more cash within the type of an extension? The house owners would by no means let Middleton set this precedent, proper? It’s not like they’ll renegotiate when a participant is a bust.

Jay Jaffe: it’s silliness. He signed that deal. Salaries inevitably catch as much as make such offers look much less outrageous. The one method I’d prolong him can be to create a decrease AAV which might assist navigate CBT points. Such as you wanna add two extra years at $10 million? Uh okay I suppose.

Byron Denniston: The $600 millionhype/expectation for Ohtani from late summer season is lengthy gone, all the way down to $500. How low does it go? Harper, Machado, Bryant, and many others all acquired hit with faux numbers earlier than FA too

Jay Jaffe: The $600 million quantity disappeared not as a result of it was “faux” however as a result of he had elbow surgical procedure, creating very actual considerations about his future as a pitcher.

Jay Jaffe: in addition to knocking him out for a full season in that division

Reds Enjoyer: My 100/4 estimate was a little bit of a joke (clearly Bellinger will get an extended deal) however the sentiment was actual. Even when he will get 175/7 I don’t see why the Reds wouldn’t be a suitor to pay him that. He would make a joke out of GABP if he performed the way in which he did final yr. Anyway, thanks for the chat as all the time Jay!

Jay Jaffe: I in all probability fired off my reply too early; i threw round 4/$100-ish kind estimates in-season when it appeared extra seemingly he would regress in the direction of his less-impressive Statcast numbers.

Jay Jaffe: It could make sense for the Reds to pursue him however he additionally does carry extra threat than your common place participant within the $100-200 million vary primarily based on his historical past, and the Reds… they carry extra threat aversion in terms of massive salaries.

Justin: Undecided in the event you’ve seen mlb commerce rumors free agent predictions however their wage predictions appear excessive to me on common. Do you agree?

Jay Jaffe: I noticed the 12/$264M prediction for Bellinger and Coca Cola that I drank final week began capturing from my nostril.

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t systematically evaluated their top-50 predictions, however some appear all proper and some appear outrageous. it is going to be attention-grabbing to match their numbers with ours when our Prime 50 runs subsequent Thursday

Bob: Maybe Dan is healthier suited to this query however are playoff stats included in a gamers projection for the following season?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t consider so

Captain ACAB: Is HOF worthiness actually one among your passions or is it simply the primary method you broke on to the scene and have been caught with that area of interest?

Jay Jaffe: Extra the primary than the second. I actually benefit from the matter, got here up with a software that folks discovered useful, and was in a position to construct that out in a way that includes a considerable a part of my workload with out feeling like an undue burden. It’s nice to occupy a spot the place you’re thought of an skilled on the topic — I’ve heard a variety of fantastic issues from individuals throughout the recreation, and meaning lots to me

A Boy Named Yu: Preliminary ideas on Counsell to the Cubs? How did they maintain it so quiet? Ideas on David Ross now?

Jay Jaffe: It’s definitely a shocker, a transfer whose stealth wouldn’t have been doable if Counsell had been below contract, as a result of the Cubs would have needed to search (and sure be denied) permission to talk to him. I can form of perceive the logic; if I’m going to go to an even bigger market, possibly the one nearer to dwelling makes extra sense even when the proprietor isn’t as inclined to spend as a lot and even when I don’t know the POBO as nicely.

Jay Jaffe: It’s nonetheless sort of bizarre however possibly the working relationship between Stearns and Counsell wasn’t as robust as beforehand believed. And it does seem that elevating the payroll bar for managers was a precedence for the man

Kyle: Let’s say Soto’s 2024 is just like his 2023. Does he beat Ohtani’s deal in both whole worth or AAV?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose so. He’ll hit free company at three years youthful, and his three-year offensive efficiency is just like that of Ohtani, however he doesn’t have the additional hooks of additionally being a top-flight pitcher and having a historical past of stardom inside and connection to a rustic of 112 million individuals the way in which Ohtani does.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, time for me to wrap this one up. Thanks a lot for stopping by. As I stated earlier than, it’s going to be just a few weeks earlier than I’m again on this spot, so get pleasure from what November has to supply.