2:00 |
: Hey all people, welcome to the chat
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2:00 |
: Let’s discuss some baseball, and actually I hope to speak about playoff races
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2:00 |
: Clearly Gunnar Henderson has been nice. However ought to Orioles followers be involved long-term in regards to the cratering stroll price within the second half? Or simply take the XBH’s and shut up about it?
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2:01 |
: Yeah, kind of the second factor
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2:02 |
: He appears to be fairly good with regards to plate self-discipline and controlling the strike zone in the long run. We’re not speaking about Keston Hiura right here or something.
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2:02 |
: I feel this may paste okay:
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2:02 |
: That’s 15-game swinging strike price, rolling throughout his season, and eh, I’m not too apprehensive. He seems to be like a fantastic hitter to me
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2:03 |
: I dunno in case you watched both of Kershaw’s final two outings, however Exhausting To Watch is a euphemism. I’ve felt fortunate to root for him for a very long time, but when that is all he can do (excessive 80s with unhealthy command), then I don’t see how pitching him helps anybody. Perhaps he simply wants extra relaxation, possibly he might even determine an Eck/Smoltz kinda denouement, however beginning along with his stuff is a playoff catastrophe ready to occur, and one he shouldn’t/doesn’t deserve to soak up, imo. What do you assume occurs right here?
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2:04 |
: I’ve not watched them, however this looks like a scalding sizzling take to me
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2:04 |
: It’s two begins
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2:04 |
: My guess is that he’ll find yourself overexposed within the playoffs as a result of that’s how Dave Roberts likes to handle
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2:04 |
: However far and wide by way of well being and velocity looks like Kershaw of current classic to me
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2:05 |
: he was fairly wonderful in June, I feel they may most likely attempt to get him a variety of relaxation down the stretch and hope that comes again
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2:05 |
: Who do you have got taking the NL West and AL East crowns?
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2:05 |
: Let’s begin with NL West, and uh… Dodgers
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2:05 |
: however presuming that was a typo, I’ll go Astros and Orioles
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2:06 |
: gotta stick to my preseason predictions, but in addition these appear to be the chances on picks
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2:06 |
: our group projections actually hate the O’s, they’ve all 12 months
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2:07 |
: and even they offer them an 80% probability of profitable the division
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2:07 |
: two video games in hand and the tiebreaker is a ton
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2:07 |
: Cedric Mullins has gone from a Cutter/Slider killer in his 2021 30/30 season to a Sinker/Splitter killer in 2023. Do most gamers keep constantly good at hitting sure pitches or do these items fluctuate by way of a profession.
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2:07 |
: Significantly by linear weights pitch kind values, they fluctuate a ton
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2:08 |
: for kinda the rationale you would possibly count on – in case you BABIP .400 towards cutters one 12 months, your numbers will look fairly good
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2:09 |
: I strive to not learn an excessive amount of into these, and focus extra on swinging strike charges or arduous contact charges or issues like that by pitch kind
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2:09 |
: In Mullins’s case particularly, he simply appears good at hitting every little thing to me. I don’t have him as a fastball or offspeed hunter particularly, only a well-rounded hitter who can take what the pitcher offers him
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2:09 |
: I’m curious what it’s like as an up and down main leaguer. You make much more than a mean American however not sufficient to completely retire after your taking part in days are over and most of your coworkers (and maybe a lot of your mates) make much more than you. You presumably have bills (journey and coaching associated) that might make no sense for most individuals to spend on. Wanting interviewing a significant leaguers you struck me as a most insightful particular person to ask about this.
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2:09 |
: I ponder about this lots
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2:10 |
: So in that sense, possibly I’m the proper particular person to ask
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2:10 |
: I feel that it’s kinda hopeless to count on these guys to match themselves to the common American. Folks unavoidably evaluate themselves to their friends, and the peer group for an up-and-down bullpen man is main league gamers
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2:11 |
: That mentioned, the chances are actually good that you just LOVE baseball in case you make it that far
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2:11 |
: So the trail of least resistance is to finish up doing baseball-related issues
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2:12 |
: I wager the bills factor messes folks up, however the ‘all my buddies are wealthy’ factor doesn’t really feel like an enormous deal to me, to be sincere
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2:12 |
: I’ve been on each side of that divide at varied factors and eh, the friendships which can be largely about evaluating standing don’t final very lengthy
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2:12 |
: the folks you actually get together with, you stick to and hey, in the event that they’re doing properly, good for them
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2:12 |
: Bringing the household for what is going to hopefully be Waino’s #200 however extra seemingly might be an early hook adopted by 3-4 innings within the child space earlier than we go dwelling!
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2:13 |
: Going to milestone video games is so cool, I hope you see it
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2:13 |
: I additionally hope so for Wainwright’s sake
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2:13 |
: It’s been a nightmare 10 days for the Cubs. Are they toast?
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2:13 |
: I needed to put in writing about this, however I simply stored arising with speak radio degree takes
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2:14 |
: very long time listener, first time caller, the Cubs won’t ever rating a run agian
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2:14 |
: that form of factor
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2:14 |
: Let me simply say this: they should get busy
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2:14 |
: They’ve six straightforward video games arising, Pirates and Rockies at dwelling
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2:15 |
: In the event that they go 3-3 or worse, I feel they’re cooked, as a result of they end with 3 in ATL and three in MIlwaukee
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2:15 |
: Delusional Padres fan right here who can’t stroll away. The Pads have an easy schedule ROS. If (BIG if) the can win out, and get to 84-78, what do you assume the possibilities are they squeeze within the final wild card spot?
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2:16 |
: okay so I feel this kind of eliminates the Giants, for the reason that Pads would sweep them, getting them to 77 losses
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2:16 |
: It’d additionally give the Padres the tiebreaker
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2:17 |
: Alright that is gonna take me a second to have a look at all of the tiebreakers however I need to, enjoyable query
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2:18 |
: they don’t have the breaker towards anybody within the race aside from the Marlins, except I’m misunderstanding it. In order that signifies that 3 of the DBacks/Cubs/Marlins/Reds want to complete with 79 losses or extra
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2:19 |
: that principally means having a shedding file the remainder of the best way for these groups
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2:20 |
: so let’s name {that a} 40% proposition for every group
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2:20 |
: I feel that works out to there being an 18% probability or so of creating the playoffs if the Padres win out
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2:20 |
: not too unhealthy!
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2:20 |
: Is Mozeliak already strolling again the “we’re getting 3 starters” factor? Positive looks as if it based mostly on his feedback from this previous weekend.
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2:20 |
: It positively feels that manner
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2:20 |
: I feel that was a rash factor to say within the first palce to be sincere
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2:20 |
: Obtained a 2:05pm lineup lock query so your promptness is tremendous appreciated. Making an attempt to wrestle bus my manner again to 4th place. I’m solely separated by 3 runs to maneuver up 2 spots, and some stolen bases. I want some lineup assist, do I’m going with Yelich this week or go together with Blackmon?
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2:20 |
: d go together with Yelich
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2:21 |
: though I’m undecided if this 2:05 lineup lock is EST, wherein case sorry
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2:21 |
: Simply happening the cue in time order in the intervening time
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2:21 |
: six away video games for the Rockies this week
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2:21 |
: Can the Dodgers really duct tape a rotation collectively for the playoffs? How do you see them doing it?
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2:22 |
: I feel they’ll handle it in a stereotypically ugly manner, with a ton of bullpen-y video games and a few ugly blowups papered over by the nice offense
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2:22 |
: They actually would not have sufficient starters
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2:22 |
: Sheehan is gonna should do some WORK out of the pen
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2:22 |
: Any sport the place Yordan Alvarez performs LF, Yanier Diaz ought to be DH if he’s not catching… Proper? Assist me perceive why Diaz has been on the bench so ceaselessly. He looks as if a legit energy bat to me based mostly on outcomes and statcast knowledge
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2:23 |
: I feel that’s moooostly true?
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2:23 |
: I’d prefer to get Brantley again within the groove earlier than the playoffs if attainable
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2:24 |
: and resting Diaz most likely has good knock-on results long-term. However that’s assuming he wants the remaining as a result of the Astros plan on utilizing him closely within the playoffs, and that’s not clear to me in any respect given his utilization all 12 months
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2:24 |
: if what you’re saying is that the Astros are underutilizing him, i imply, yeah
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2:24 |
: it’s foolish
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2:25 |
: Elite stroll/strike out stats. Do you have got any scouting reviews on this undrafted over achiever?
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2:25 |
: just about nothing, tbh
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2:25 |
: He’s the form of man Eric will get the news on each offseason
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2:26 |
: the one I consider, as a result of I’m a Cardinals fan, is Kodi Whitley. I’d by no means heard of this man after which BAM, each public prospect author acquired the look unexpectedly and he was a recognized amount earlier than he debuted
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2:27 |
: so I’d say watch this area (FanGraphs) for offseason updates)
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2:27 |
: Ought to Guardians followers be optimistic following this 12 months given the spectacular efficiency of their younger pitchers (and the returns of Bieber and McKenzie), or extra involved given their offensive regressions?
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2:27 |
: I feel pessimistic, as a result of Jose Ramirez is one other 12 months older they usually went beneath .500 in a foul division
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2:28 |
: that mentioned, I’m excited to see whether or not Josh Naylor can lastly put issues collectively for a full 12 months
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2:28 |
: Truthfully, this 12 months would possibly rely
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2:28 |
: A Cleveland hitter with precise energy? It’s possibly true
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2:28 |
: after a couple of years of the present playoff setup, how do you prefer it?
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2:29 |
: I feel total I prefer it
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2:29 |
: the worst division winner getting punished is an efficient function in my view
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2:29 |
: I don’t just like the flattening of the third wild card/semi-contender area, and its impact on the deadline
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2:29 |
: I’d prefer to see one thing modified there, maybe a later commerce deadline
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2:29 |
: However the three-game sequence are actually enjoyable
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2:29 |
: and I feel an acceptable handicap for WC groups
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2:30 |
: WSox fan right here, however I might be following the Cubs for the playoffs. Does their pitching stack up okay for the playoffs? Who strains up 1-4? (Their lineup should not have any holes)
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2:31 |
: I assume Stroman might be able to go by then, however I suppose that’s not 100%
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2:31 |
: Steele/Hendricks/Taillon really feel like locks to me. I’m guessing they’re between Wicks and Stroman for that final spot
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2:32 |
: I’d have Hendricks behind Wicks, personally, and on the bubble, however the group appears greater on Hendricks htan me, and I’m certain that his longevity issues
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2:32 |
: How does the Nationals’ rebuild look to you because the season winds down?
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2:33 |
: Fairly good! I just like the indicators of life from Abrams, the prospects are wanting strong, I nonetheless form of consider in Luis Garcia
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2:34 |
: If you happen to assume the group goes to pour a bunch of cash into being good once they assume they’re prepared, a la Jayson Werth signaling a surge of their earlier cycle, I feel that subsequent 12 months might be crucial
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2:34 |
: as a result of if the younger guys take a step ahead, you can begin seeing the groundwork are available in proper after that
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2:34 |
: How a lot do you count on lacking a whole season to harm my growth? I’ll be 25 subsequent 12 months, and a variety of my points are issues that primarily enhance with sport reps – can I nonetheless be a 30/30 (or 40/40) man?
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2:34 |
: Sadly, lots
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2:34 |
: I’m an enormous Cruz fan, however the reps clock actually issues
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2:34 |
: and he’s simply operating out of time
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2:35 |
: Appears like folks ought to be speaking extra about Ryan Noda. A rule 5 decide placing up a 130 wrc+ and over 2 WAR in solely 450 PAs. Good work if you may get it
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2:35 |
: I feel that the A’s are simply so miserable this 12 months that their success tales are going under-appreciated
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2:35 |
: Is Yainer Diaz one of the best hitting backup in baseball historical past?
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2:36 |
: I feel I’m gonna have to offer that honor to Lou Gehrig
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2:36 |
: baseball historical past goes again a good distance
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2:36 |
: Who’s one of the best group within the AL? Looks like you may make a reasonably first rate argument for nearly any of the seemingly playoff groups.
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2:36 |
: I just like the Astros
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2:36 |
: However yeah, it’s crowded at hte high within the AL
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2:36 |
: Are there any playoff matches you’re actually hoping to see?
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2:36 |
: Dodgers Braves is enjoyable. However O’s/Rays once more can be nice
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2:36 |
: I’ve liked their sequence this 12 months
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2:37 |
: a texas showdown with Scherzer dealing with Verlander is now off the desk, that might have been up there in any other case
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2:37 |
ugly. For 2024, is that this a purchase low man who’s an adjustment from exploding, or merely a lotto ticket?
: Lot of combined indicators with Elly…his SwStr and z contact are no less than sneezing distance from common, and his Okay price is encouragingly about what it was in AAA, however his GB% and O-Zone% are |
2:37 |
: I’m on an adjustment away from exploding simply due to his age and instruments
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2:37 |
: I dunno the place he’s gonna be valued in fantasy, although. I might think about him being a very excessive decide due to the hype, at which level the equation doesn’t work that properly
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2:38 |
: two very younger SS, who’re you extra inspired by and purchase into long-term: CJ Abrams or Volpe?
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2:38 |
: Volpe by a good distance
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2:39 |
: I feel you must venture an excessive amount of enchancment in Abrams’s protection nonetheless
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2:39 |
: he reveals flashes, however I’m not in on it but
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2:40 |
: and I like Volpe’s ceiling extra as a hitter. Abrams feels a bit extra capped to me offensively due to his method
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2:40 |
: That mentioned I may be letting my preseason view of Abrams creep into this analysis an excessive amount of
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2:40 |
: It’s one to look again into after the 12 months
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2:41 |
: I used to be fairly down on Abrams due to, properly, the arc of his profession
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2:41 |
: however this can be a actually encouraging season for him, little question
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2:41 |
: All else being equal, would two hitters, one with a .250/.350/.450 line and the opposite with a .300/.350/.450 line, have the identical or completely different wRC+ values?
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2:41 |
: most likely the identical ish
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2:41 |
: Ben, Davis Schneider’s wRC+ has dropped almost 60 factors (to 193) because you wrote about him. Why did you jinx him (as a result of there’s clearly no different clarification)? Additionally, over/beneath 125 for his finish of season wRC+?
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2:42 |
: Over! however yeah, haha, whoops
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2:42 |
: Am I simply being a very emotional fan once I argue the largest mistake the Jays have made in current reminiscence was failing to offer Anthopolous full management, which ended his tenure in Toronto?
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2:42 |
: No I feel that’s most likely proper
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2:42 |
: clearly he’s fairly good at it
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2:43 |
: and I don’t have every other evident issues to level out
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2:43 |
: I feel I will need to have combined up among the tiebreak conditions
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2:43 |
: that’s what makes this math arduous
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2:43 |
: if they’ve the tiebreak over two groups, then it jumps up lots
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2:43 |
: and I possibly didn’t even implement the primary one proper
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2:43 |
: I ought to create a ZiPS of my very own
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2:43 |
: (observe: positively not doing that, can also’t do this)
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2:43 |
: Mariners Rangers preventing for WC3 with 7 out of their final 10 video games towards one another. Similar to we thought at on the commerce deadline.
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2:43 |
: It’s gonna be superior
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2:44 |
: i totally count on to be gaslit by Mozeliak this offseason that dakota hudson made enhancements this 12 months to warrant a beginning spot in ’24
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2:44 |
: An annual ritual
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2:44 |
: Why aren’t peripheral stats for hitters not typically introduced up by award voters in comparison with pitcher peripherals? Is it as a result of a hitter can nonetheless achieve success with out main the league in xwOBA?
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2:45 |
: Eh, I feel it’d be very bizarre to deliver up anticipated statistics in an awards dialogue, personally
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2:45 |
: the pitcher peripherals we’re utilizing nonetheless care about what really occurred on the sphere, you nkow?
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2:45 |
: like, they decide and select which occasions to offer extra weight to
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2:45 |
: however I feel the Isaac Paredes of all of it makes it kinda claer that once we can measure the outcomes properly, we must always focus extra on these outcomes
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2:46 |
: You converse of pennant races and yesterday proved once more why baseball is the best sport. 2 video games with great significance had been in the identical spot. Jays led the Purple Sox and Rays led the Orioles by 1 run with 2 outs and no one on the las of the ninth. Devers homered to tie and the O’s get a double from Frazier to tie, then a success from Rutschman with 2 outs within the tenth to tie it once more. Among the finest video games I’ve watched and theintensity of the group was off the charts.
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2:46 |
: It’s important to like it
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2:46 |
: What are your ideas on the orioles huge win over the rays yesterday?
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2:46 |
: What an superior sequence total, playoff races are actually enjoyable
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2:46 |
: The Pirates are ONE sport beneath .500 for the reason that all-star break and have received 4 of their final 6 sequence. They began ridiculously sizzling then went embarrassingly south and people two streaks of play had been coated extensively by the media. Then the narrative was frozen. The truth that they’ve managed to go .500 for nearly half a season since has been ignored. I suppose my query is, why?
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2:46 |
: Groups which can be useless within the water for playoff races principally get their data ignored within the second half
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2:46 |
: it’s not distinctive to the Pirates
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2:47 |
: The Nats are 30-30 for the reason that break, the Mets are 27-32, Detroit is 31-29
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2:48 |
: I haven’t actually heard a lot about any of these groups pulling out of a tailspin both
|
2:48 |
: It’s simply, eh, boring
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2:48 |
: With the expanded playoffs and lack of sellers on the commerce deadline, we’d like mlb growth. Additionally the hole between coaching on the highest ranges is shrinking
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2:48 |
: Yeah, I utterly agree with this
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2:48 |
: do you assume the royals will ever be adequate to use the truth that they’ve a pennies on the greenback Bobby Witt Jr.? He’s so good however they’re so unhealthy
|
2:48 |
: They’re simply too unhealthy
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2:49 |
: Do you assume there’s an opportunity Wyatt Langford will get known as up within the subsequent week or two? May very well be a bench asset within the playoffs
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2:49 |
: I do, and that feels wild
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2:49 |
: however they’re clearly paving the trail for it
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2:50 |
: Stadium state of affairs on the best way to being settled. Do you assume the subsequent mlb growth groups have a shot at profitable early like vegas golden knights?
|
2:50 |
: It actually depends upon the best way they arrange the growth draft
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2:50 |
: my guess is that growth groups are going to be simply okay in baseball, organizations are simply so massive and dev time is so lengthy in comparison with different sports activities
|
2:51 |
: however hockey is the closest to baseball in that sense so possibly!
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2:51 |
: I simply haven’t given a lot thought to it
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2:51 |
: Simply need to throw out that David Ross has a number of seasons with a wRC+ greater than Yainer’s this season so possibly we pump the breaks just a little.
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2:51 |
: Nope, let’s enshrine him now
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2:51 |
: He takes a cope with an early choose out, proper? Looks like he might signal for extra after he comes again from TJS
|
2:51 |
: I imply, I wouldn’t
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2:52 |
: there’s simply not a lot distinction between 400 million and 500 million to me
|
2:52 |
: Sport clock has sped up video games, does this imply we are able to revoke the three batter rule?
|
2:52 |
: I imply…. I don’t see why
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2:52 |
: mid-inning pitching adjustments suck
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2:53 |
: An argument towards MLB growth: isn’t expertise already skinny? There are already 4-5 groups which can be jokes from day 1 of every season
|
2:53 |
: I feel that has lots to do with these groups not placing in a legit effort
|
2:53 |
: the quantity of nasty reduction arms is an enormous argument in favor of growth to me
|
2:54 |
: Yesterday I found Cal Raleigh is twenty fifth in WAR for place gamers, third amongst catchers, and forward of Adley. So I went again and checked and he wasn’t on the Commerce Worth listing anyplace, at the same time as an honorable point out! Is that this only a sizzling streak? Or is the trade not as excessive on him?
|
2:54 |
: Little little bit of each, little little bit of me being too low, little little bit of a mistrust of catcher worth that’s so closely reliant on framing
|
2:55 |
: let’s simply say that I’m not quick on Mariners followers who’re looking at this listing once I”m constructing it
|
2:55 |
: I feel that his age additionally performs a task, however yeah, I’d have him on there if I did it once more
|
2:55 |
: Jays, Rangers and Mariners would all favor the Twins to the Rays/O’s, proper? Would any NL WC group need to play the Phils over MIL?
|
2:55 |
: I imply, possibly the final day of the season?
|
2:55 |
: however it’s fairly essential to truly make the playoffs
|
2:56 |
: Ohtani can’t get $400 million if he’s only a DH, can he?
|
2:56 |
: If he had been solely ever going to DH once more, no
|
2:56 |
: however presumably he’s planning on returning to two-way play after rehabbing from damage. I’m actually curious to see what his market might be like and in addition terrified to venture a contract for him
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2:56 |
![]() |
2:56 |
: I imply, contingent on you already having 400 million {dollars}, 100 million {dollars} will not be a lot
|
2:56 |
: going from 0 to 100 million is clearly large
|
2:57 |
: How do you assume the free agent pitching market performs out? Ohtani’s not an enormous issue, Urias ought to be accomplished, Nola has not been himself, and Snell’s peripherals will not be near his ERA. Appears like somebody like Giolito goes to do a lot better than most individuals would count on simply due to lack of provide.
|
2:57 |
: 100% agreed with this
|
2:58 |
: There are only a lot of groups that want starters yearly
|
2:58 |
: The wild card races in each leagues are nice. Who do have lacking the minimize?
|
2:59 |
: I suppose I’ll go together with SF/CIN/Miami on the NL aspect (actually shut for me, I needed to place the Marlins in), and Texas on the AL aspect
|
2:59 |
: However that is pure guesswork, to be clear
|
2:59 |
: Assist us Obi-Wan Clemon-Obi, you’re our solely hope!
|
3:00 |
: Gotta throw this one in as a result of I’m quickly nearing a conclusion to immediately’s chat, gotta go make lunch after which maintain writing about Josh Hader
|
3:00 |
: How do guys like Ragans and Y. Diaz slip by way of the cracks? Im certain it occurs on a regular basis, Paredes is one other instance, however groups simply throw within the towel too early? Or, are different groups simply playing and have the taking part in time obtainable? I dont assume anybody was shocked on the time of the commerce by the packages.
|
3:00 |
: Yeah, I feel it’s simply groups falling by the wayside too early, but in addition, we all know that gamers typically take a very long time to show their true expertise. The percentages of somebody figuring out are decrease if they’ve had a foul 12 months or two, however not zero
|
3:01 |
: it’d be one factor if a group had been systematically mis-evaluating these guys (cough Cardinals within the mid-2010’s cough), however I dunno, you’re gonna miss one or two right here or there even in case you’re doing every little thing proper
|
3:01 |
: Are the Mariners able to supply a aggressive deal to Ohtani? They appear compelling from a expertise standpoint(pitching depth + Julio)
|
3:01 |
: I feel so. They’re my guess for the place he finally ends up proper now
|
3:01 |
What’s your feeling on him, Baty, the infant Mets, and so on? |
3:02 |
: I’m nonetheless excessive on Baty, possibly as a result of I’ve let ZiPS speak me into it
|
3:02 |
: I feel Alvarez is nice, after all
|
3:02 |
: Mauricio? I imply…. I dunno, you may get as excited as you need. I’m not blown away, however it’s good that he’s not falling on his face
|
3:03 |
: baseball expertise worldwide is in any respect time highs. The hole between AAA, Korean, Japanese leagues and the majors is narrower than ever. The coaching strategies and know-how that faculties, minors, and personal instruction have, plus all of the movies and information on-line, make it simpler than ever to get higher
|
3:03 |
: Organizational roster shrinking is going on at a time when mlb rosters ought to be increasing. Concussion protocols, inning limits, and trendy damage therapy virtually requires 28 man rosters 12 months spherical.
|
3:03 |
: I agree with each of those
|
3:03 |
: and on that observe
|
3:03 |
: I gotta run and begin heating lunch up
|
3:03 |
: have a fantastic week everybody, and benefit from the playoff races
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Ben is a author at FanGraphs. He will be discovered on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.