Sandy Alcantara’s Damage Means a Rockier Street for the Marlins Rotation

Simply in case Max Scherzer’s season-ending damage wasn’t sufficient pitcher-specific tragedy for the week, baseball’s deities have handed down a story of woe to a different of the sport’s high pitchers. Sandy Alcantara, final yr’s NL Cy Younger award winner, might miss the rest of the season as properly. Whilst you may argue that teammate Jesús Luzardo has surpassed Alcantara as a top-of-the-rotation weapon, Alcantara’s historical past as one of many NL’s high workhorses makes his absence extraordinarily ill-timed for the Marlins, who’re at the moment preventing for his or her playoff lives towards the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Giants.

Alcantara first landed on the IL a couple of week in the past after experiencing discomfort in his forearm. Baseball folks take forearm ache as significantly because the denizens of Center-earth regard inscribed poems on mysterious rings, so Alcantara was shut down for additional analysis. Whereas he felt wholesome sufficient to play catch on Wednesday, an MRI revealed that his forearm pressure stems from a sprained UCL. Whereas the worst-case situation — specifically, a Tommy John surgical procedure that may value him the remainder of this season and sure all of 2024 — doesn’t look like the rapid plan of action, his 2023 standing stays unsure. When requested particularly about Alcantara’s return, Marlins supervisor Skip Schumaker prevented being too bullish on the prospects of getting him again this yr, saying, “I don’t know. I can’t say sure. I can’t say no. I’ve simply gotta be optimistic. I simply gotta preserve telling myself day-to-day and attempt to make the most of the chance.”

I wouldn’t essentially characterize Alcantara as having a tough season — I believe one thing like Alek Manoah’s disastrous 2023 higher suits that invoice — however I can’t deny that it’s been a bit disappointing in comparison with his 2022. This yr, Alcantara has posted his highest ERA as a Marlin, in addition to his highest residence run allowed charge and lowest strikeout charge. He’s been hit more durable than regular, so none of those numbers are pure flukes. However whereas Statcast’s xERA isn’t completely happy about his season, ZiPS sees him as have a 3.60 zFIP, reflecting that the declines in his strikeout charge don’t fairly match the smaller declines seen in his plate self-discipline information. It could be exhausting to say he’s been an ace this yr, however the truth that Alcantara is ready to eat so many innings has stored his worth robust, and he was doubtless headed for his third-straight season of 200 innings and not less than 3 WAR. The Marlins have a younger rotation and plenty of of their pitchers have vital damage histories. That makes it additional good to have one in all baseball’s dwindling variety of pitchers who can casually go seven innings most nights.

In shedding Scherzer, ZiPS estimated that the Rangers misplaced two share factors within the playoff race and 0.4 share factors in World Sequence likelihood. ZiPS likes Alcantara barely higher as a pitcher and feels extra assured concerning the alternative choices in Texas, so the affect on Miami’s destiny is a skosh bigger. First, I ran ZiPS assuming that Alcantara would miss the remainder of the season:

If we ignore the Padres, who’re on the verge of rounding to zero, the Marlins have the hardest highway of any of the Wild Card contenders with out Alcantara. Now, let’s assume the Marlins get a type of aforementioned Tolkienian rings, use its little-known energy to heal elbow and forearm issues, and get Alcantara again into the rotation when he’s eligible on Tuesday:

In a really tight race, getting Alcantara again for a pair begins remains to be sufficient to snag the Marlins practically 4 share factors of playoff likelihood, about twice what a wholesome Scherzer would have achieved for the Rangers. And as importantly, having him for the playoffs would change the highest of the rotation sufficient to offer Miami a significantly better likelihood of constructing a deep postseason run.

Naturally, the worst-case situation would have a big impact on Alcantara’s long-term outlook:

Whereas the chances nonetheless favor Alcantara returning, if worst got here to worst, there can be lots of considerations. Would Alcantara’s changeup nonetheless be as devastating if he got here again with a 95 mph fastball as an alternative of a 98 mph one? Would the lack of a whole yr cut back the probabilities of him lastly discovering the strikeout upside of his strong stuff, as Nathan Eovaldi ultimately did? What are the probabilities he may return and nonetheless be one of many few pitchers who’s a great wager to throw 200 innings?

Fortunately, we’re not but on the level the place we have now to reply these questions. Mason Miller suffered an UCL sprain in Could, however has been in a position to come again with conservative remedy because of the A’s displaying an abundance of warning when it comes to hurrying him again. But when Alcantara’s 2023 is certainly over, the Marlins face a more durable path to the playoffs, actually a more durable one than when each ZiPS and the FanGraphs playoff odds had them with an over 70% likelihood of constructing the playoffs again in July.