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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/25/23

26 July 2023

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2:01	Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! Welcome to the final July version of my FanGraphs chat

2:01	Jay Jaffe: I’m again from an exhilarating and exhausting Corridor of Fame Induction Weekend in Cooperstown

2:03	Jay Jaffe:

2:03	Jay Jaffe: Had a blast there, acquired to do some fairly enjoyable stuff!

2:04	Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the present

2:04	So that you’re telling me there’s a probability: Hello Jay. I’m going to the Blue Jays vs Angels recreation on Saturday. The place would you set the percentages of me seeing Ohtani play, with the commerce deadline shortly approaching?

2:04	Jay Jaffe: I believe the percentages of Ohtani being traded are very low, actually

2:05	Jay Jaffe: I believe Arte is unwilling to commerce him to a different California workforce (the Dodgers and Padres come to thoughts) and imagine they will make a robust pitch to re-sign him

2:06	Fats Elvis: Evaluating Lance Berkman’s numbers to Fred McGriff, makes me marvel if Lance must be a HOFer. Fred compiled extra, however Lance appears higher on a charge foundation (and OPS+). How do you distinguish the 2?

2:10

Jay Jaffe: Each are brief for me. McGriff ranks solely thirty third in JAWS amongst 1B (52.6/36.0/44.3), 9 factors beneath the usual. Berkman is nineteenth amongst LF (52.0/39.2/45.6) about eight factors beneath the usual. He did that in over 2000 fewer plate appearances, and is a greater hitter on a charge foundation 9144-134 in OPS+) however he’s not really a high-peak man relative to the positional customary (41.8)

2:10	Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume one subpar selection justifies reducing the bar for one more

2:11	Ron: Your ideas on Julio Urias for ROS….can he proper the ship and get again to considerably constant ace degree? Dodgers want him to be in October for certain. Thanks

2:12	Jay Jaffe: Man, I want I knew. At his finest, he’s clearly an excellent pitcher, however we’ve hardly ever seen his finest this yr, He’s been very homer-prone, and has gotten knocked round by quite a lot of sub-.500 groups

2:12	Jay Jaffe: The irony is that this would possibly hold him a Dodger, in the event that they make him a qualifying supply and he makes use of that to get a second probability to set his market

2:13	Adam B.: Inform us about one thing else you noticed within the Corridor’s assortment this weekend which made you glad to see it.

2:14	Jay Jaffe: Two images and accompanying objects which might be new from this spring: a photograph of Ohtani hanging out Trout to finish the World Baseball Basic championship recreation, accompanied by Ohtani’s cap:

2:15	Jay Jaffe:

2:16	Jay Jaffe: And the batting helmet of Olivia Pichardo, the primary girl to play for an NCAA Division I workforce, Brown College (my alma mater):

2:16	Jay Jaffe:

2:17	seth r: What’s your favourite exhibit in Cooperstown? I used to be dumbstruck by the sheer quantity of ‘lore’ accessible to the museum curators once I went for Larkin’s induction

2:18	Jay Jaffe: I like the A Entire New Ballgame exhibit, of the stuff from the Seventies onward. So vibrant and different. Additionally the Shoebox Recollections exhibit devoted to baseball playing cards.

2:19

Hayes: Hey everybody, am I the one one fearful that Ohtani goes to be insanely overpaid this offseason? Clearly he’s a high 3 hitter( I imagine Choose and Yordan are higher) however pitching smart he’s ranked twenty seventh and twenty sixth in ERA and xERA. His hitting numbers recommend he ought to get round $350m after which his pitching stats recommend he ought to get round $100-$130m. Add that up and your taking a look at a $450m participant. I’ve heard although that the market might be $600m!?. That simply appears excessive to particularly with how widespread pitching accidents are that you could possibly be dropping a pitcher in addition to a hitter if he have been to have Tommy John. Ideas on this?

2:21

Jay Jaffe: his pitching stats have been compromised by his latest blister points, which have inflated his ERA. Regardless, whoever indicators him isn’t simply doing a easy mathematical estimate primarily based on his worth — there’s a marquee worth there that’s not accounted for, and whoever indicators him is prone to be the one which values him probably the most extremely past efficiency, primarily for his means to enhance attendance and scores.

2:22	Jay Jaffe: That stated, even the very best gamers don’t are likely to receives a commission on the greenback worth their projections recommend. I believe $600M is a bit excessive however I wouldn’t be shocked at $500M

2:23

Steve: Jay, i observed that the brewers are in first place within the NL central and have a adverse Pythagorean Win Expectancy (-5). How widespread is it for such a workforce to win a division? pennant? world collection? Have the latter two ever been achieved with a PWE for the season being adverse?

2:29	omar: there’s no method the Orioles would commerce Holliday for Ohtani, proper? is Ohtani’s commerce worth being overstated contemplating he’s solely a 2 month rental?

2:31

Jay Jaffe: no method the O’s try this. The factor about Ohtani’s commerce worth is that you simply’re including BOTH a participant who’s in all probability going to be your finest hitter AND a frontline starter, albeit one who would possibly require you juggle your rotation a bit. His DH-only standing creates some points so far as resting different gamers, however he does prevent a roster spot. Whoever trades for him will nearly actually overpay in a rational sense, however that’s what it’s going to take to separate your self from the opposite presents when you actually do need him

2:31	Theo be Praised: Many groups with excessive payrolls (NYY, SDP, NYM, and many others) are doing poorly. Many with low payrolls (TBR, CIN, BAL, ARI, and many others) are having surprisingly good years. Something we will be taught from that?

2:31	Jay Jaffe: Sure: That’s Baseball, Suyzn.

2:32	Jay Jaffe: There’s all the time quite a lot of handwringing over how a lot cash groups spend, however at finest it’s an imperfect mechanism to enhance your membership, it doesn’t assure something.

2:33	Jay Jaffe: Which doesn’t imply you need to by no means spend huge — you’re not going to get or hold star gamers when you don’t, and that has so much with the way in which followers and even different gamers understand your workforce.

2:33	Dave in St Paul: What do you assume Joe Mauers HOF p.c shall be on his time on the poll?

2:34	Jay Jaffe: I believe he falls brief this winter, with one thing within the 60-65% vary, however will get in subsequent yr.

2:34	Theo be Praised: If the Cubs commerce Bellinger, have they got a legit probability to resign him? That just about by no means occurs, however this circumstance (1 yr pillow, Boras shopper) looks as if one the place it might, no?

2:35

Jay Jaffe: It hardly ever occurs, and until Bellinger REALLY preferred his time there I’d be skeptical he can be so inclined. That workforce is a number of strikes away from being a powerhouse, and until they make different strikes to persuade him that they’re constructing a contender, I’m undecided why he’d go there until their supply blows the others away.

2:35	Syndergaardengnomes: Good afternoon! Assume the Mets will commerce Verlander or Scherzer? Even when they decide up a considerable sum of money, appears tough to think about an enormous market…

2:36	Jay Jaffe: I’m skeptical, as a result of i feel the cash and the no-trade clauses and their declining performances (and up to date accidents) will make it very arduous to line up with one other workforce

2:37

bringbackpologrounds: Hey Jay. In your pleasant Cooperstown casebook collection, you notice that Mookie Betts tasks to a 63 bWAR on the finish of the season, and his JAWS rating is already first-ballot standing. I believe Betts has an excellent probability to complete with 90-100 bWAR with considerably modest counting stats (2000 hits, 375 HRs)…how will his legacy be seen by the previous crowd/HOF voters on the time?

2:38

Jay Jaffe: Even earlier than this stellar season, he projected for simply wanting 2,400 hits and 400 homers by way of ZiPS, which is a bit past what you’re suggesting. I don’t assume it’s actually going to matter what the “previous crowd” thinks — Corridor of Fame voters 10 years from now shall be fairly conscious of how good he’s and doubtless much less hooked up to milestone numbers as voters of yesteryear.

2:39	Cameron Kear: Jay, What’s happening with the A’s stadium saga? Haven’t heard something about it shortly. May they keep in Oakland?

2:42	Jay Jaffe: There’s additionally some query as as to if the present website may even match a ballpark, which if it might probably’t will begin the legislative course of over.

2:44	Brad in Wellfleet: Hey from Nice Level on Blackfish Creek! Justin Steele…how precisely does he get the outcomes he does with only a 91-93 4-seemer and OK slider?

2:47	Jason: Much like the Berkman query, what would possibly Carlos Delgado want to realize additional consideration? He was nice for 13 years, got here up in all probability one yr wanting 500 homers, and his candidacy was summarily dismissed.

2:50

Jay Jaffe: I like Carlos Delgado for his outspokenness on issues that matter, however he’s a bit brief within the corridor division, as a result of regardless of the homers, he didn’t have a ton of worth in different areas of the sport. -26 baserunning runs, -65 fielding runs by way of B-Ref, and so you might have a man who barely cleared 50 WAR and ranks thirty eighth amongst 1B (44.4 /34.5/39.4) with lesser numbers than McGriff. He received’t even be eligible for Period Committee consideration till after what would have been his 10-year window runs out this winter, and there simply aren’t a ton of men from the sub-5% group who make the leap to the poll with any pace — ask Lou Whitaker.

2:52	Scott: When did Fangraphs first come about? What number of years has it’s been?

2:53	First Place Orioles: I do know this may be filed below “method too early to reply” however who do you personally assume is a extra seemingly HoFer – Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson?

2:54	Jay Jaffe: offhand I’d say it’s Gunnar, as a result of he reached the majors at 21, in comparison with 23 for Adley.

2:54

Jason: Do you assume Dan Quisenberry has any shot on the corridor? Per your one subpar selection doesn’t justify one other, Quisenberry doesn’t appear meaningfully worse than Bruce Sutter. I don’t essentially assume Sutter is undeserving, however I’m wondering if Q has a shot to get in or if the requirements are a bit too excessive for him.

2:58

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see an opportunity, sorry. I liked Quisenberry, and whereas his numbers are an excellent match for Sutter when it comes to innings and WAR, and he has a bonus in ERA+ and in R-JAWS (which incorporates WPA), he wasn’t the pioneer that Sutter was — each when it comes to popularizing the split-fingered fastball and in getting used because the save-focused nearer (they’re 56 saves aside in Sutter’s favor). Getting on the poll at this level is especially powerful given the smaller ballots and up to date course of change, and never having huge counting stats.

2:58

omg_pwnasaurus: I discover it very tough to get hyped in regards to the HOF anymore when the very best hitter and finest pitcher of my technology are usually not in whereas the veteran’s committee both elects somebody that they performed with/for that they like and/or they elect somebody simply to make a degree in regards to the PED period. Maybe the managers whose profession wins/rings have been aligned with that period as nicely also needs to be penalized then? All of it appears very arbitrary and at this level has (imo) had the inverse impact of what they appear to be attempting to show the place no less than from my perspective, it’s change into far much less fascinating.

2:59

Jay Jaffe: You don’t must care. The establishment and its processes have their flaws, as does the logic that’s put a number of the finest gamers on the skin whereas those that enabled them are in. A few of us are dedicated to doing what we will to enhance the state of affairs and to understand what’s there, nevertheless it’s hardly necessary for each fan to really feel that method.

3:00	J: What would you do when you have been the Cubs proper now? Nonetheless too early to inform or is the small probability of successful the division simply not value lacking out on buying and selling Bellinger/Stroman at their peaks?

3:02	Jay Jaffe: I’d be extra inclined to promote as a result of there simply aren’t that many sellers, and as you recommend, these guys are close to peak worth.

3:03	Visitor: Lot of Arenado to the Dodgers rumors flying previous few days. Do you might have any concept why the Dodgers would ship out prospects for him once they have Muncy, an on a regular basis DH solely, and plenty of different wants? I’m so confused how this grew to become a factor.

3:07

Jay Jaffe: Muncy hasn’t been fairly the identical participant since his elbow harm, however he does have some positional utility; he can play first, second and third. He may additionally be a commerce candidate if the Dodgers do get Arenado, who can be an improve. IMO, so much will depend on how a lot cash is altering fingers right here, although, as Arenado is owed over $100 million via 2027.

3:08	Matt VW: I all the time benefit from the substitute killers collection. Do you might have ideas on what number of (if any) positional killers a workforce can carry and nonetheless make the playoffs? Make a deep run within the playoffs?

3:11

Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume there’s any set quantity however let’s notice that final yr’s NL champion Phillies made the midseason checklist at SS, 3B, CF, and RF, although solely the 2 outfield spots completed with lower than 1 WAR, they usually did no less than add Marsh in middle subject to offer themselves a Moist Man

3:11	v2micca: If I set the over/below at 7 for the variety of extra Shohei Ohtani recreation used gadgets that shall be featured within the Corridor of Fame from his profession, would you are taking the over or below?

3:11	Jay Jaffe: Over, as a result of there shall be one thing on that order in his show case when he’s inducted.

3:11	TKDC: Had been you shocked by the considerably smaller crowd in Cooperstown this weekend? I particularly thought I’d see extra Phillies followers present up.

3:14

Jay Jaffe: No, not likely — and the gang was far lower than the estimate of 10,000 supplied by the Corridor (this stuff are all the time inflated). With solely two honorees in comparison with 5 or 6 from latest years, it was sure to be a smaller turnout. Each gamers spent solely a handful of years with groups that have been inside driving distance, and let’s face it, a large contingent of Phillies followers will eternally be at odds with Rolen for turning down the massive contract extension and happening to higher success elsewhere.

3:14	Kevin: You stated you bought to do some fairly enjoyable stuff in Cooperstown. Inform us extra!

3:18

Jay Jaffe: The most important highlights have been going to the Friday afternoon get-together on the Lodge Otesaga in honor of BBWAA Profession Excellence Award winner John Lowe and to the Corridor of Fame plaque gallery cocktail occasion on Saturday night. I had an opportunity at each to speak to a ton of writers I respect, met a number of Corridor of Famers (together with favorites Robin Yount and Jim Thome) and noticed dozens extra (pointedly didn’t shake the hand of 1, ahem), heard some very good issues about my work, caught up with a ton of mates who’re both Cooperstown-based or present up yearly, together with my hosts, and made a “20 Years of JAWS” presentation on the post-induction SABR assembly.

3:18	Marcus: If the Yankees miss the playoffs, is Cashman out of a job?

3:18	Jay Jaffe: No, however I’d guess Boone is.

3:19	jj: I hold pondering the identical as Hayes above about Ohtani, there must be a reduction inbuilt for the chance of dropping each your finest hitter and #1 or #2 SP, BUT all it takes is one proprietor to not fear about this threat and his value is thru the roof.

3:19	Jay Jaffe: when you’re sitting round ready for a reduction on Ohtani, you’re going to observe him placed on one other workforce’s uniform.

3:19	v2micca: Which workforce really making a compelling effort to signal Ohtani this low season would personally shock you probably the most?

3:22	Jay Jaffe: Anyone who has a payroll within the decrease half of groups save for the Mariners, plus no less than the White Sox, Astros, and Cardinals from these within the higher half.

3:22	Grand Admiral Braun: Can the Cubs promote Stroman and but nonetheless be in-it and “patrons?”

3:23	Jay Jaffe: It’s doable however they’d must get again some high quality pitching to ensure that that to make sense

3:23	Keith: Dejected Royals fan right here Horrible MLB workforce and backside 5 farm system. What might presumably make them aggressive within the subsequent 5 years?

3:23	Jay Jaffe: a brand new regime.

3:24	Marcus: Favourite place to see a band in NYC, previous and current?

3:27

Jay Jaffe: I have a tendency to like smaller venues however not too small. I miss CBGB’s and Brownies. Bowery Ballroom (official capability 575) is likely to be my favourite, because it’s well-run, has first rate beer, and so forth — and I’ve been going to that one for over 20 years. Brooklyn Made, which has nice beer and a large stage, is a superb venue however a schlep to get to, and it’s not being booked in addition to it used to. I actually miss Bell Home, which had quite a lot of the identical in its favor however was a lot nearer

3:27	>this man<: Immaculate Grid is probably the most enjoyable I’ve all day generally. Thanks for sharing your outcomes. It’s how I discovered.

3:28	Jay Jaffe: I spent a lot time speaking about Immaculate Grid with mates — a few of whom work on the Corridor — this previous weekend.

3:28	Skip: Wait, can I stroll across the Corridor of Fame with beer in hand? That adjustments every thing!

3:28	Jay Jaffe: Alas, you may’t, until you get invited to the plaque room occasion.

3:28	Kevin: Who would you no less than think about voting for at this level on subsequent yr’s HOF poll?

3:29	Jay Jaffe: One thing alongside the traces of “everybody I’ve voted for earlier than, plus Beltré, Mauer and Utley”

3:29	Bongo: Is Chas McCormick breaking out?

3:30	Jay Jaffe: His slash line suggests that he’s (.282/.371/.531), however his statcast numbers are much like final yr, and he has solely a .237 xBA and .437 xSLG. Beware regression

3:31	Immaculate Griz: Which over 30 participant has the very best probability to play their method into HOF rivalry?

3:31	Jay Jaffe: The one which was most notable to me once I did my roundup was Marcus Semien, who’s actually made nice strides currently.

3:31	Dan: Is remainder of profession projections someplace publicly accessible or is it one thing you run internally in service of analysis or an article?

3:32	Jay Jaffe: No, it’s a Szymborski spreadsheet he shared with me, and it’s already old-fashioned.

3:32	Bert: No person appears to be speaking in regards to the Pads’ run differential. Approach greater than SFG and ARI. Their Pythagorean document has them a lot greater. It’s getting late however would a turnaround actually shock you?

3:34

Jay Jaffe: Not tremendously. They’ve quite a lot of good gamers underperforming, and have performed higher than their document suggests, although they’re simply 6-16 in one-run video games. Repair first base, work out what’s happening with Darvish, fortify the bullpen, I can see them having a shot at a playoff spot.

3:34	Skip: I’m heading to Cooperstown in September for the day. Something that’s on the “can’t miss” checklist?

3:37

Jay Jaffe: I suppose it will depend on how a lot time you may spend on the Corridor. The comparatively latest reveals — A Entire New Ballgame, Shoebox Treasures, Viva Baseball, Diamond Desires (ladies in baseball), and Negro Leagues — are very a lot value catching when you’ve already achieved the historic stuff. The Hank Aaron show on the third flooring is nice, and the stat-related artifacts on 3 are actually enjoyable, too.

3:37	Bert: Do the underlying stats let you know Kim is enjoying over his head remarkably?

3:38	Jay Jaffe: Yeah, a bit (.270 AVG vs .246 xBA, .447 SLG vs. .383 xSLG), however his glove and flexibility are key components of his worth

3:38	City Shocker: Will Mookie’s HoF case have any dishonest stink on it from the 2018 Crimson Sox signal stealing scheme? Nonetheless an excellent participant however, coincidence or not, that was his finest offensive season by far.