The Orioles Are Baseball’s Most Fascinating Crew-Constructing Puzzle

The primary baseball cap I keep in mind shopping for was a beautiful Orioles throwback. I’m unsure what precisely drew me to it. Perhaps it was my mother’s lifelong Orioles fandom. Perhaps it needed to do with the crisp colours. Perhaps I’d simply listened to famous ornithological transporter Jay-Z on the drive to West City Mall. “Earlier than Mitchel and Ness did it/I used to be shifting birds like an Oriole fitted/I’m Cal Ripken Jr., let’s get it” all the time acquired me excited to observe some baseball. Regardless of the purpose was, although, that hat known as out to me, so I paid an exorbitant value for one thing I ended up not sporting very continuously.

I’m telling you this story for a number of causes. First, I need to set up my bona fides as somebody who has all the time had a smooth spot for the O’s. Second, I get to indicate my age a bit — I used to be in highschool when The Blueprint 2 got here out. Third, who doesn’t like telling tales? However the primary purpose is that ledes are laborious to put in writing, and I need to discuss concerning the O’s right this moment. To cite Jay-Z: Let’s get it.

A current Ken Rosenthal article had me double-checking payroll lists and wage tables. The Orioles – the Orioles!! – had been listed because the group who elevated its payroll by essentially the most from 2024 to 2025. I checked out that for just a little bit, appeared on the knowledge to verify that the never-errant Rosenthal had, actually, not erred, after which I let loose a protracted puzzled sigh. It’s true! The O’s have opened the purse strings this winter. There are a number of methods to calculate payroll, however primarily based on the yearly expenditures listed in RosterResource, listed here are the highest 5 payroll will increase throughout the majors:

A couple of current signings have pushed the Dodgers forward, however Baltimore is correct there on the prime of the desk. Solely the Mets and Dodgers have signed extra free brokers on main league contracts this winter. The O’s have assured 4 totally different gamers $10 million or extra per 12 months in free company, once more behind solely the Mets and Dodgers. It’s a far cry from final 12 months, when the Orioles signed Craig Kimbrel after which sat out the remainder of the method, opting as an alternative to commerce for Corbin Burnes. So why doesn’t this offseason really feel extra triumphant?

Among the disconnect between the Orioles’ winter of finances will increase and the sensation amongst followers will be attributed to their division and the gamers they misplaced to free company. Coming into 2024, we projected the O’s for 84.2 wins and gave them a 52.8% likelihood of constructing the playoffs. This 12 months, now we have them down for 82.8 wins and 44.4% playoff odds. Despite the fact that our projections are decrease on the O’s than different ones, the trajectory is what issues most right here. Playing markets had the O’s over/underneath at 90.5 wins in 2024; that’s all the way down to 88.5 for this upcoming season. When Dan Szymborski ran his pre-spring coaching ZiPS projections final week, the Orioles had been projected for 89 wins with 68.1% playoff odds, down from 90 wins and 74.9% odds on the similar level in 2024. PECOTA thinks Baltimore is roughly one win higher than it was final 12 months, so it’s not all dangerous information, but it surely’s not fairly the bonanza you’d count on from a group that has elevated its payroll by a whopping 56%.

One purpose: Many of the more money the O’s are spending is on backfill. Anthony Santander (2024 wage: $11.7 million) departed; enter Tyler O’Neill (2025 wage: $16.5 million) and Ramón Laureano (2025 wage: $4 million). Backup catcher James McCann (2024 Orioles outlay: $4.15 million) is out the door, changed by Gary Sánchez (2025 wage: $8.5 million). Final season, Burnes made solely $15.6 million in wage in his ultimate 12 months of arbitration; each Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton are in that basic ballpark ($13 million and $15 million, respectively). Kimbrel could be gone, however Andrew Kittredge (2025 wage: $10 million) is choosing up most of his payroll slack, and hopefully delivering extra on the sector.

That doesn’t clarify all of Baltimore’s improve in money outlay. The group’s returning gamers are additionally incomes extra in 2025 than they did in 2024. Adley Rutschman certified for arbitration for the primary time this offseason; he’s set to make $5.5 million in 2025, up from $1.05 million in 2024. Zach Eflin, a commerce deadline acquisition, is due $18 million in his final 12 months earlier than free company; the O’s paid him round $5 million final 12 months, with Tampa Bay masking the opposite $7 million on his contract. Ryan O’Hearn’s wage is leaping from $3.5 million in 2024 and to $8 million in 2025. Cedric Mullins, Dean Kremer, and Ryan Mountcastle every acquired $2 million raises. Kyle Bradish simply hit arbitration for the primary time, although he gained’t contribute a lot in 2025 after present process Tommy John surgical procedure final 12 months. The little bits add up.

I need to be clear on one factor: I’m not pointing this out accountable the Orioles. I feel their offseason has largely been a hit, although I do assume they sat out the highest finish of the beginning pitching market as a cost-saving measure. The $28 million they’re combining to pay Sugano and Morton, who each venture for ERAs within the mid 4.00s, is a bigger common annual worth than all however two starters obtained in free company this winter, however that quantity is for 2 pitchers as an alternative of 1. The larger deal, from Baltimore’s perspective, is that each of these offers are for one 12 months, giving the group most future payroll flexibility at the price of top-end expertise in 2025.

Three of the 5 Orioles starters weren’t on their 2024 Opening Day roster, 4 of six in the event you rely Trevor Rogers, who is predicted to overlook the beginning of the season with a proper knee subluxation. However even when we exclude Rogers, who was terrible after becoming a member of the O’s final summer time and may not have a beginning spot when he returns, Baltimore has bolstered its rotation because the center of 2024. The issue, although, is that this beginning employees initiatives to be worse than it was final 12 months. In line with our Depth Charts, the Orioles rank twenty third in projected beginning pitching WAR, with 10.1. Final season, Baltimore starters mixed for 12.8 WAR, good for eighth within the majors.

So sure, the Orioles in all probability may’ve finished extra to enhance their pitching employees, however their different strikes made a ton of sense. They actually did want an additional outfielder; perhaps Heston Kjerstad is prepared for an on a regular basis position, but it surely’s hardly a given, and O’Neill provides the lineup extra proper/left stability even when he finally ends up as a platoon participant by 12 months’s finish. Backup catcher is an particularly key spot for the Orioles as a result of they offer Rutschman loads of begins at DH to maintain his bat within the lineup whereas permitting him a break behind the dish. Because of this, Baltimore can’t afford to only signal the Tucker Barnharts of the world and hope issues work out. An actual backup catcher doesn’t all the time get handed to you from the Mets on a silver platter, as was the case with McCann; generally it’s a must to exit and spend just a little. Sánchez is a superb match for this job, and he’s additionally a succesful DH in his personal proper relying on the matchup.

I’ve been powerful on the O’s in recent times for one purpose particularly: I believed they weren’t making an attempt laborious sufficient to maximise a roster that had two elite gamers, Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, making pre-arbitration salaries. That modified once they traded for Burnes final February, however he’s gone now. In the meantime, the Orioles haven’t gained a playoff recreation with Rutschman, Henderson, and their different younger stars, and so they’re solely getting dearer. As an alternative of rising as a real juggernaut these previous two years, the O’s have principally treaded water.

It’s laborious to be higher at growing hitters than the O’s. 5 of their starters – Rutschman, Henderson, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, and Jackson Holliday – are current farm system graduates. Rutschman is the one one among them who has reached arbitration eligibility. That group consists of, per our projections, Baltimore’s 4 greatest hitters. (Sorry, Jackson, you’ll must show it within the majors earlier than our fashions make it a clear five-for-five sweep.) Kjerstad and Coby Mayo may be part of them earlier than lengthy, too. In the event you’re seeking to construct a playoff group on a finances, you’ll be able to’t do a lot better than this.

However even with that large tailwind, the O’s are having to meaningfully improve their spending simply to maintain the whole lot else at a roughly breakeven degree. They’re previous the simple beneficial properties they’ll get by plugging in younger prime prospects to a last-place roster. They’re now on the laborious half: sustaining and bettering an already good group.

Free brokers go away. Contributors become old. Pitchers get harm. These are simply details of life in baseball. Getting an enormous head begin because of immaculate drafting and improvement is simply that – a head begin. It’s not the top of the race. Baltimore has added payroll simply to keep up its expertise; to date, although, this group hasn’t finished a lot bettering.

Why? For one factor, baseball doesn’t exist in stasis. When Rutschman debuted in 2022, the AL East was in transition. The Pink Sox went from second place to fifth and the Rays regressed to 86 wins after profitable 100 video games in ’21. When Henderson joined Rutschman in 2023, the AL East turnover accelerated. Boston remained a last-place group, however the Yankees went from first to fourth. Tampa Bay rebounded to 99 wins and a second-place end. The Blue Jays secured a Wild Card berth for the second 12 months in a row, however their very own sturdy younger core was getting dearer. That was the Orioles’ second to ascend, and so they did, profitable 101 video games and taking the division. And although they had been swept out of the postseason, it appeared like they’d solely maintain rising from there, if not within the common season then within the playoffs.

However the remainder of the division didn’t pack it up and give up after that. Final offseason, the Yankees responded to their down 12 months by buying and selling for Juan Soto, after which gained the division and reached the World Sequence. The Pink Sox improved to .500 and completed third, and through their hibernation on the main league degree, they restocked their farm system. The Rays hit an enormous bump within the street – the much less stated about that, the higher — and the Blue Jays had a Murphy’s Legislation season. The Orioles had been nonetheless good, however they regressed to 91 wins and misplaced each of their playoff video games for his or her second early-round elimination in as a few years.

Now, the division is as soon as once more on the rise. After dropping Soto to the Mets this offseason, the Yankees launched into a buying and selling and spending spree. The Pink Sox continued their construct up and added to that momentum by working the commerce and free agent markets aggressively. The Jays each added payroll and traded for a cost-controlled contributor in Andrés Giménez. The Rays are nonetheless the Rays; you simply know they’ll be buzzing across the periphery of the playoff race.

None of because of this the O’s gained’t make the playoffs for the third straight season. Even our comparatively bearish playoff odds assume they’ve acquired a professional likelihood, and given their still-strong farm system and near-majors-ready choices, they seem like a superb wager to enhance throughout the 12 months by commerce or promotion. However their rivals will attempt to get higher too. The AL East isn’t fairly a five-team free-for-all, but it surely’s not removed from that, and that’s even with the O’s deploying sources that they’d beforehand held in reserve.

One other powerful actuality of the game: Roster-construction home windows don’t final without end. Following a franchise-altering few years, the O’s are having fun with the fruits of their deal with drafting and growing, however sooner or later they’ll must replenish their produce provide. Rutschman and Henderson are going to be stars for a very long time, however they’re not going to be low-cost stars for for much longer. The pure form of contending with a youth motion is to start out with a comparatively low payroll, then see it improve incrementally as these gamers close to free company or signal extensions. Two years in the past, elevated payroll was all about bringing new gamers to Baltimore. Now, it’s additionally about paying the present gamers extra.

So as soon as extra, I’m writing concerning the Orioles from a long-term roster technique standpoint. And as soon as extra, I feel they’ve a tricky and fascinating street forward. This group is unimaginable, there’s no denying that. The rebuild? It unquestionably labored. However that simply means extra fascinating choices within the months and years to return, extra probabilities to commerce for pitchers of Burnes’ caliber or signal a capstone piece in free company.

Two years in the past, the O’s had been a capturing star, and the fascinating query was how vibrant they’d shine. Final 12 months, when the query was whether or not they’d go outdoors the group to bolster their roster, they rose to the event and traded for Burnes. This 12 months, it’s all about sustaining the momentum whereas additionally taking that subsequent step from common season success to postseason wins.

I’d say I don’t envy the O’s entrance workplace for the problem it’s going through — solely I completely do. I used to daydream about how I’d run a baseball group whereas I labored at an unrelated job. Now I daydream about how I’d run a baseball group whereas writing about baseball. And proper now, the Orioles current essentially the most thrilling team-building puzzle in baseball. They’re adequate that there are not any simple beneficial properties for them to make. It’s an awesome spot to be in, and an undeniably troublesome one too.