Louisville had its worst season in program historical past in 2022-23. The debut marketing campaign of first-year head coach Kenny Payne was, any manner you take a look at it, an abject catastrophe. The season ended with 4 wins, a whopping 28 losses and a complete lot of uninspired effort on each ends. Not one of the 4 wins got here outdoors the KFC Yum! Heart, and solely considered one of them — a February tilt vs. Clemson — got here towards a staff that completed within the high half of its respective league standings. Â
The second yr of the Payne period, although, was trying up — (emphasis on the was) — till this week when the Cardinals’ second highest-rated signee of their top-10 class, Trentyn Flowers, despatched out a bombshell announcement that he’s leaving the varsity only a week earlier than the autumn semester is about to begin. Flowers introduced the choice whereas stating his intentions of enjoying within the Australian NBL, a league that has a program tailor-made for blue-chip prospects who’ve desires of finally touchdown within the NBA. The NBL has a Subsequent Stars program the place the likes of LaMelo Ball, RJ Hampton and Terence Ferguson sharpened their abilities earlier than making the leap to the league.
Unhealthy time to lose a high participant
Whereas Flowers’ determination may show finest for his long-term growth given the league’s success in performing as a developmental steppingstone for some massive names, the reality is that it exacerbates issues about how Louisville can bounce again from all-time low of the ACC and a university hoops laughingstock. Even with an anticipated top-10 class with Flowers beforehand in tow, a battle again to relevancy nationally — a lot much less competing and holding its personal within the ACC — at all times felt like a stretch for Louisville in 2023-24. Expertise should still be upgraded from final season, certain, however No. 1. That is a reasonably low bar! and No. 2. Expertise was not going to be on its facet, even with some promising switch imports. You’ll be able to work numbers round and attempt to make up misplaced manufacturing in most cases if a top-30 participant leaves, no downside, however in the course of August with college beginning inside the week?
Good luck. Louisville must take the capital L.
CBS Sports activities Bracketology Skilled Jerry Palm has his way-too-early bracket projections out already for 2024, and in a shock to completely nobody, Louisville is not within the combine, a lot much less on the bubble, a lot much less being on the bubble of being on the bubble. Much more bleak: BartTorvik.com‘s early take a look at 2023-24 has just one ACC staff — rebuilding Notre Dame — with a worse outlook than Louisville. His projections have Louisville ranked No. 146 amongst 361 Division I groups. That is solely lacking the NCAA Event image by … 78 spots. (Solely 68 groups make the sector, so even when there have been two, separate 68-team NCAA Tournaments with two, completely totally different fields, Louisville can be projected to overlook each tournaments.)
Relying on freshmen Â
Freshmen not often make the kind of successful impression that almost all count on in school hoops — particularly freshmen who reclassify, like Flowers did earlier this yr — and let’s be honest: it is too quickly to jot down the obit on Louisville’s 2023-24 season earlier than it even begins. How massive a job Flowers would’ve had is up for debate, for one, and even groups on paper with as dangerous as prospects as Louisville have flipped scripts and gone on to have successful seasons. It occurs on a regular basis, and school hoops’ fixed participant motion makes projecting groups a near-impossible process. Look no additional than Kansas State, which was picked to complete final within the Huge 12 final season earlier than incomes a No. 3 seed within the NCAA Event months later and ending because the convention’s final staff standing with a run to the Elite Eight.
Nonetheless, it is arduous to really feel just like the losses of final season have not stopped piling up into the offseason and have now begun to bleed over into a brand new season. We’re simply barely over a decade faraway from Louisville reducing down the nets and successful the nationwide championship* in Atlanta whereas constantly working as a high staff in its convention. The one actual contending it has accomplished since Payne took over this system has been with Notre Dame for which staff is the worst within the ACC. With Flowers’ determination to go away the talent-challenged Cardinals in a troublesome spot at a troublesome time, it would not appear probably that may change anytime quickly.