Nationwide League Division Sequence Preview: San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The NL West race might have been settled in favor of the Dodgers this 12 months, however all people goes again to the beginning gate within the playoffs. The one distinction is the doable additional house recreation the Dodgers get in every particular person sequence, although house discipline benefit has been removed from a worthwhile perk for groups aside from gross sales of tickets, sizzling canines, and $59 foam fingers. With Los Angeles getting just a few additional days to try to heal up just a little extra, the Padres acquired right here the onerous means, having to win the best-of-three Wild Card Sequence towards the Atlanta Braves, a staff that also managed to squeeze out 89 wins with out Spencer Strider and principally lacking Ronald Acuña Jr.

Whereas a few of baseball’s finest rivalries are the traditional ones which have endured for the final century, comparable to Yankees-Pink Sox and Dodgers-Giants, this one between the Dodgers and Padres is an effective instance of how new rivalries can pop up and be a number of enjoyable, too. Even supposing the 2 groups have performed in the identical division for greater than 5 a long time, solely in recent times has the so-called I-5 Rivalry actually heated up. San Diego has occasionally sustained runs of relevance – that is solely the second model of the Friars to string collectively three successful seasons in a row – leaving Dodgers followers with few nightmares that includes a brown-and-mustard palette. However these Padres have been aggressive, and in contrast to prior to now when short-term bursts of ambition have been tempered shortly with brutal fireplace gross sales, they’ve persistently tried to make the Dodgers uncomfortable on the high of the NL West. Even because the Padres traded Juan Soto over the winter, they acquired their Wild Card Sequence Recreation 1 starter Michael King in that deal after which traded for Dylan Stop, who’ll begin Recreation 1 of the Division Sequence, simply earlier than Opening Day. But, final success has confirmed elusive for San Diego, with two disappointing playoff misses in 2021 and 2023 and nonetheless no returns to the World Sequence since 1998’s debacle.

The Dodgers enter the Division Sequence with one thing to show as properly. Whereas they do have a World Sequence trophy from the COVID-shortened 2020 season, with 5 100-win seasons within the final seven regular years, they crave to have extra {hardware} to point out for his or her success. Positive, we’re used to the concept that when you might have giant playoff codecs, successful the World Sequence takes a number of luck, however neither followers nor historical past care a lot about that. Profitable the World Sequence this 12 months would wipe out most, if not all, of that disappointment; taking good care of enterprise on this sequence would get the Dodgers one step nearer to that whereas additionally giving them just a little revenge towards the Padres for knocking them out within the 2022 NLDS, after Los Angeles received a franchise-best 111 video games.

So, how do the groups stack up? Let’s begin with the ZiPS projections. As I kind this, Joe Musgrove has been formally dominated out for the NLDS as a result of his elbow harm, which has now been confirmed to require Tommy John surgical procedure. Which means no Musgrove this postseason – or subsequent season – however for now, we’ll simply cope with the affect of the information on this sequence.

For distinction, listed below are the projections for if Musgrove had been in a position to pitch on this five-game set.

Changing Musgrove with Martín Pérez, possible the subsequent man up, principally flips the win possibilities for Recreation 4. The place each recreation beforehand favored the house staff within the projections, now the Dodgers are anticipated to win on the street towards Pérez.

Despite the fact that the Dodgers are favored to win with Musgrove out, it will nonetheless be incorrect to name them overwhelming favorites. This can be a shut sequence total, but additionally a swingy one, with 4 of the 5 video games projecting to be at the least a 55-45 break up, which means that for essentially the most half, these video games aren’t projected to be coin flips regardless of the tightness of the sequence as an entire. “Breaking serve” right here by successful on the street has various worth. If the Padres can get to Yoshinobu Yamamoto or Jack Flaherty and win one of many first two video games, they might expose one of many Dodgers’ present weaknesses: a skinny rotation as a result of accidents. Walker Buehler had solely three high quality begins out of his 16 outings since coming back from Tommy John surgical procedure in Might; his efficiency was shaky sufficient that in mid-June the Dodgers optioned him to the minors, the place he spent two months making an attempt to get proper, earlier than they introduced him again as much as begin on August 20. And regardless of a superficially interesting ERA, Landon Knack could be concerning the twelfth selection for Los Angeles if everybody have been wholesome. If the Dodgers are in a position to get out to a 2-0 lead with none bullpen-exhaustion occasions, like an 18-inning recreation, they is likely to be ready of power to run a bullpen recreation and axe one in every of their unsure starters from the NLDS rotation.

The place the Dodgers have the benefit is their front-line offensive expertise, which provides them what seems to be the superior offense total, an edge giant sufficient that it isn’t erased when you view gamers comparable to Jurickson Profar and Donovan Solano with much less skepticism than ZiPS does.

Dylan Stop is a terrific pitcher, however ZiPS thinks the Dodgers’ Massive 4 of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and the nice platoon facet of Max Muncy has a preventing likelihood of attending to him. It’s extra of an uphill climb towards Yamamoto; ZiPS has Luis Arraez as the one San Diego batter projected to have a .300 OBP towards Yamamoto, and it offers not one of the Padres a .450 SLG projection towards him. Now, distinction that with the projections at house towards Knack and Buehler.

Considered one of San Diego’s different benefits, at the least within the eyes of the pc, is its bullpen. Whereas ZiPS has each groups performing equally total, it a lot prefers the depth of the Padres’ unit. To check their bullpens, in every simulation, ZiPS was instructed to knock out each starters after two innings in a single recreation and have one other recreation final 15 innings; in these situations, the chances of the Padres successful the sequence go from 42% to 47% – practically a coin flip. In a brief sequence, issues like roster development could make an actual distinction. Take a look at the best way the Nationals have been configured in 2019, with 4 good starters, two relievers they trusted, and a dumpster fireplace behind them. That type of distilled efficiency meant that even when Washington received 13 fewer regular-season video games than Los Angeles that 12 months, ZiPS projected the groups as practically equal after they met within the 2019 NLDS.

Right here’s what I get from these reams of information: The Dodgers ought to keep the course with what’s labored for all of them 12 months, belief their elite hitters, and keep away from the temptation to get too cute with their managing techniques, however the Padres must be aggressive. In the event that they see a gap to get to Yamamoto or Flaherty, deal with that recreation prefer it’s Recreation 7 of the World Sequence. San Diego can’t afford to avoid wasting any wacky methods for later. If the Padres can push the Dodgers again on their heels shortly and early, the latter might run out of time to proper themselves.

One factor you’ll hear loads (in all 4 sequence), particularly early on, is the declare that the layoff is an enormous drawback for groups. Don’t consider it. If the Padres upset the Dodgers right here within the five-game sequence, it received’t be as a result of Los Angeles was too rested. As a substitute, it’ll be as a result of the Padres performed higher.