Tanner Rainey Is the Lowest-Leverage Reliever in Baseball

I typed the command “high-leverage reliever fangraphs.com” into Google over the weekend and set the search vary to the previous month. About 130 outcomes got here up. Subsequent, I ran the identical search, besides with “low-leverage reliever” as an alternative. This time, Google instructed me there weren’t “many nice matches” for my search and instructed I attempt “utilizing phrases which may seem” on the web page I used to be searching for. Message obtained, Google. Apparently, our protection right here at FanGraphs is biased towards gamers who truly maintain significant affect over the outcomes of video games. That simply received’t do!

All joking apart, there’s a quite simple cause we don’t write about low-leverage relievers that always. Low-leverage relievers don’t actually exist, a minimum of not in the identical method high-leverage relievers do. For one factor, relievers are naturally going to enter video games in higher-leverage spots as a result of pitchers usually tend to exit video games in higher-leverage spots. The typical leverage index when getting into video games (gmLI) for relievers this season is 1.12; that’s 0.12 larger than a wonderfully average-leverage spot. Furthermore, the low-leverage reduction alternatives do exist usually tend to go to the revolving door of replacement-level arms on the backside of every crew’s bullpen depth chart, somewhat than a longtime pitcher whose full-time job is that of a low-leverage reliever. Take into account that the median gmLI for energetic, certified relievers this season is 1.21. By design, most relievers who stick round lengthy sufficient so that you can know their names are going to be pitching in higher-leverage spots. But, that doesn’t imply there aren’t any full-time low-leverage relievers. If something, it simply means these guys are extra uncommon – and subsequently fairly fascinating.

With all that in thoughts, I got down to discover a low-leverage arm price writing about. The certified reliever (0.3 IP per crew recreation) with the bottom gmLI this season is Thyago Vieira, with a 0.29 gmLI. That will be the bottom gmLI in a season for a professional reliever since rookie Johan Santana’s record-setting 0.27 gmLI in 2000. But, with all due respect to Vieira, he’s hardly probably the most enjoyable a part of that enjoyable reality. (Though, if Vieira goes on to win two Cy Younger awards and a Triple Crown I’ll gladly eat my phrases.) The 31-year-old Vieira completely suits the mould of the replacement-level/revolving-door reliever I described above. He has performed for the Brewers, Orioles, and Diamondbacks this season, and he’s at present on the restricted listing at Triple-A within the D-backs group. It appears extremely unlikely he’ll get again to majors and pitch the required 10.2 innings he would wish to stay certified at season’s finish. And, sadly, his 0.29 gmLI isn’t practically as noteworthy with out the “certified” qualifier. If I decrease the edge to 30 innings pitched, 25 different relievers have had a lower-leverage season on document (since 1974).

Funnily sufficient, nonetheless, it was after I regarded simply past the certified names that I struck gold iron (assist me out right here metallic fanatics, is that the correct metaphor?) in my seek for low-leverage relievers. Tanner Rainey of the Nationals is within the midst of what could possibly be the lowest-leverage reduction season of all time:

You received’t see Rainey on our reliever leaderboards until you play with the “Min Taking part in Time (IP)” toggle, however he’s just one inning away from qualification. Presuming he continues to pitch precisely one inning per outing, as he has in 33 of his 34 appearances, he’ll have to make 14 extra journeys to the mound over Washington’s 43 remaining video games. That’s greater than doable. And if he had been certified proper now, his 0.09 gmLI would simply rank because the lowest for a professional reliever on document:

To maintain this up, Rainey might want to proceed pitching in low-leverage spots, which is much from a assure. The Nationals have extra high-leverage innings to go round now that Hunter Harvey and Dylan Floro are sporting new uniforms, and supervisor Dave Martinez instructed on the deadline that Rainey might see a few of these alternatives. That hasn’t actually occurred but – Rainey hasn’t pitched in a lot as a medium-leverage spot this yr – however he has made two of his 4 highest-leverage appearances within the two weeks for the reason that commerce deadline, together with his highest-leverage entrance of the season approaching Saturday (gmLI 0.61). It was the second time all yr that he entered a two-run recreation.

But, even when Rainey makes one other 14 appearances and each single one in all them begins in a equally leveraged spot, he would end the season with a median gmLI of roughly 0.25. Take that quantity with a grain of salt, since I made some massive assumptions to get there, and since leverage index stats will likely be adjusted on the finish of the season to account for the 2024 run atmosphere. Nonetheless, my level stands that we could possibly be watching the least consequential reduction season in recorded historical past. And to assume, the fools in Massive Baseball Media are too busy being attentive to Shohei Ohtani’s quest for a 40-40 season to even discover.

One cause I’m so fascinated by Rainey’s season is that a median leverage index this low isn’t one thing that occurs accidentally. Rainey is the exception to the rule that low-leverage relievers don’t actually exist. He has been within the Nationals bullpen all yr, and his function has been fairly darn constant. The fitting-hander has but to enter a tied contest or a one-run recreation. In the meantime, in 27 of his 34 appearances, he has taken the ball with the Nationals trailing by a minimum of three runs. He has entered with a deficit of a minimum of six runs on 5 separate events, and Washington’s common deficit when he enters a dropping recreation is 4.9 runs. To be truthful, the Nationals’ -60 run differential suggests their relievers are in all probability getting into with a deficit as a rule; even so, Rainey is clearly reserved for the worst of it. The crew is 7-27 (.206) in his appearances and 47-38 (.553) in the remainder of its video games. Washington’s run differential upon his entrances is a dismal -100. On a small handful of events, Martinez has gifted Rainey the chance to pitch with a lead. The catch, nonetheless, is that Rainey solely appears to be allowed to enter late in video games if the Nationals have already scored a minimum of 11 runs and maintain a minimum of a six-run lead:

• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 11-1
• Rainey enters within the eighth with the Nationals up 11-5
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 14-6
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 14-3
• Rainey enters within the ninth with the Nationals up 11-5

What’s extra, Rainey normally comes on to document the ultimate three outs of a recreation that every one however formally has been determined. He has been his crew’s last pitcher in 26 of the 34 video games he has appeared on this yr, which places him twenty fourth amongst all relievers in video games completed. Each pitcher ranked forward of him is undeniably a high-leverage arm; all of them have had a minimum of 14 save alternatives, they usually all boast a gmLI effectively above common. Rainey, then again, hasn’t pitched in a consequential spot all yr. Not solely is he 0-for-0 in save probabilities, however he doesn’t have any wins, losses, or holds. And whereas he has had his justifiable share of fine and dangerous outings, he’s the one reliever within the sport this yr (min. 30 IP) with no shutdowns or meltdowns – video games through which he elevated or decreased his crew’s possibilities of profitable by a minimum of 0.06 WPA. If he retains this up, he’ll be the primary reliever since Chris Beck of the 2018 White Sox and Mets to pitch a minimum of 30 innings in reduction with out both a shutdown or meltdown outing.

Rainey will not be a mop-up man; he normally pitches just one inning, and it’s nearly all the time towards the top of the sport. Neither is he a fungible arm on the backside of the depth chart; the Nationals have caught with him all season regardless of his constantly poor outcomes (5.66 ERA, -0.2 WAR). No, Rainey is what I’m going to name a “farther,” for the reason that higher opposites of the phrase “nearer” — “starter” and “opener” — have already been taken. It’s a time period that solely works in writing, however on the identical time, it’s an apt description of his job. Rainey pitches solely when his crew is just too far forward or too far behind – and it’s too late within the recreation – for his efficiency to actually matter.

Rainey was as soon as a promising reliever. He turned heads in 2020 (2.66 ERA, 42.7% strikeout fee), and after a troublesome ’21 marketing campaign, he regarded sharp once more in ’22. He was the Nationals’ nearer over the primary half of that season (12 saves, 1.72 gmLI), earlier than Tommy John surgical procedure knocked him out for second half and nearly all of ’23. Greater than two years faraway from his surgical procedure, Rainey now not seems like the identical pitcher. His four-seam fastball velocity is down by about three miles per hour, and his slider now not strikes prefer it as soon as did. From 2020-22, the pitch modeling methods cherished his fastball (133 Stuff+, 68 botStf) and his breaker (131 Stuff+, 55 botStf). This yr, neither pitch grades out practically as effectively.

Maybe the Nationals have shoehorned Rainey into the lowest-leverage function doable as a result of they’re holding out hope his stuff will return to pre-TJ ranges. Or maybe they’re giving him late-game alternatives as a real signal of (misguided) respect towards the previous nearer. Both method, Washington clearly needs to maintain him on the most important league roster somewhat than danger dropping him to a different group. If he has caught round this lengthy, he’s in all probability secure for the remainder of the yr. And if Rainey is secure for the remainder of the yr, he’s obtained a reasonably good probability to pitch the least significant full season any of us have ever seen.