The variety of Atlanta Braves gamers on the injured checklist has reached double digits after two of their core gamers, beginning pitcher Max Fried and second baseman Ozzie Albies, went down over the weekend. Fried had a 3.08 ERA/3.71 FIP throughout 108 innings for the Braves earlier than touchdown on the IL with neuritis in his left forearm, which first flared up whereas he was warming up for his All-Star Sport look. In Atlanta’s 6-2 loss to the Cardinals on Sunday, Albies broke his wrist when his glove hand collided with a sliding Michael Siani on a stolen base try; the second baseman is predicted to be out for almost the remainder of the common season.
To exchange Fried and Albies on the roster, the Braves recalled lefty Dylan Dodd and shortstop Nacho Alvarez Jr. from Triple-A Gwinnett and signed veteran 2B/OF Whit Merrifield to a significant league contract.
Ozzie Albies as we speak underwent X-rays that exposed a left wrist fracture. He’s anticipated to overlook roughly eight weeks.
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) July 21, 2024
After lacking chunk of final yr as a result of forearm ache, the 30-year-old Fried stumbled in his first two begins of this season however has been dominant since then. He’d additionally stayed wholesome by the primary half of the season, which was particularly essential for the Braves given the early-season loss of righty Spencer Strider to Tommy John surgical procedure. The silver lining right here – vital since any point out of a pitcher’s having forearm ache justifiably will ship followers right into a panicked binge of one in every of their vices – is that there is no such thing as a structural harm in his pitching arm and he is not going to require surgical procedure. As a substitute, the Braves are selecting to be cautious with Fried as a result of neuritis within the forearm may be associated to an underlying downside with the UCL. Fried has already had Tommy John surgical procedure as soon as, a few decade in the past when he was nonetheless a Padres prospect. Neither the Braves nor Fried have supplied a timetable for his return, however Fried was optimistic that this could be a short-term subject. Per The Athletic’s David O’Brien:
“Every thing structurally appears to be like nice, just a bit irritated sensory nerve,” Fried stated, “not one of many main muscle-functioning nerves. … Simply going to let it relax, and (I’m) hoping to be again quickly.”
That there was no point out of ulnar nerve transposition surgical procedure, which might have saved Fried out for months, must be thought of signal. Or, once more, at the very least a much less unhealthy one.
After getting off to a scorching begin in April, Albies has struggled in latest months, and has hit simply .235/.285/.376 for the reason that finish of April. He could also be having arguably the worst yr his profession, however Atlanta was hopeful that he may return to type over the ultimate two and a half months of the season. Shedding even this lesser model of Albies lowers the ceiling of this underperforming offense, which ranks eleventh among the many 15 NL groups in runs scored.
Atlanta could also be punchless, however it’s not witless – or ought to I say Whitless – because the crew rapidly signed Merrifield to a significant league contract. Merrifield’s peak years with the Royals are lengthy behind him at this level, and he was solely accessible for the Braves as a result of the Phillies launched him over every week in the past after he’d batted .199/.277/.295 (65 wRC+) throughout 174 plate appearances in a utility function. The projection methods are usually not bullish on Merrifield’s efficiency the remainder of the season; Steamer expects Merrifield to publish a .250/.303/.362 line over the ultimate months of the yr whereas ZiPS has him barely worse, at .244/.293/.354. That stated, the Braves merely don’t have any good in-house choices to show to as a substitute. I ran the projections for each participant at Triple-A or Double-A for Atlanta who has performed at the very least three video games at second base this yr. I’m additionally together with Alvarez, who has not performed second base professionally however seems to be the frontrunner to exchange Albies.
ZiPS Projections – Merrifield vs. Braves Minor Leaguers
If ZiPS is right, the Braves seem to have recognized Alvarez as their greatest short-term choice at second base, with Merrifield filling a utility function and serving as the most effective second-base Plan B.
The Phillies have been already overwhelming favorites to win the NL East, with ZiPS giving them an 85% likelihood of taking the division as of this morning if Fried and Albies had been wholesome. Assuming two missed months for Albies and a median of three weeks for Fried, ZiPS drops Atlanta’s possibilities of working down the Phillies from 14% to six%. Thankfully, the Braves stay in a commanding place for one of many NL Wild Card spots. These two accidents solely drop their playoff likelihood in ZiPS from 91% to 88%, so whereas unwelcome, they shouldn’t trigger any untimely towel-throwing.
In a single final little bit of trying on the intense facet, Atlanta has much more choices now than it could if these accidents occurred in two weeks. We’re simply over every week from the commerce deadline, and there are a selection of second basemen and pitchers, of various plausibility, accessible. A bundle that included a aid arm – Atlanta is deep right here – may conceivably tempt the Orioles into parting with a prospect like Connor Norby. Amed Rosario of the Rays and Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Blue Jays have each been strong this season. I’m undecided Atlanta may efficiently commerce its whole farm system and get Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal if it needed to, however the value of Erick Fedde should be extra affordable. The Braves would possibly select to stay with what they’ve and muddle by, however it’s at all times good to have the ability to make that alternative.
It says lots concerning the Braves that regardless of all of their nasty surprises this season, they continue to be on a tempo to win 89 video games and comfortably make the playoffs. However with these two newest accidents, the crew’s margin for error has been reduce thinner than a pleasant piece of charcuterie.