At first look, Josh Rojas and Derek Zoolander don’t have quite a bit in widespread. Rojas is a 3rd baseman, whereas Zoolander is a fictional male mannequin. Rojas is from Arizona, whereas Zoolander is from an unnamed coal mining city in Appalachia. They’ve completely different jobs, completely different lives, and once more, one is a fictional character. However one factor unites the 2: Their careers took off after they discovered tips on how to go left.
In 2022, Rojas settled into a task as an on a regular basis third baseman after years of bouncing between positions. Only one drawback: He was one of many worst defenders within the main leagues on the scorching nook. That was the consensus of scouts when he was a prospect, and defensive metrics bore it out. He notably struggled ranging in direction of second base. Statcast breaks defensive alternatives up primarily based on which route a participant has to maneuver to make the play. When Rojas was shifting to his proper, ahead, or backward, he was one run above common defensively. When he went left, he was seven runs beneath common.
It didn’t really feel like a small pattern fluke. In 2021, Rojas performed all throughout the diamond and struggled going left at each place. In 2023, he performed extra second than third and once more put up his worst defensive numbers when shifting left. That was true on each the Diamondbacks and the Mariners – he received traded midway by way of the season. His protection appeared acceptable total, however going left remained an issue.
Loads can change in an offseason. Right here’s an inventory of the highest defensive third basemen in 2024 in line with Statcast:
High Third Base Defenders, 2024
And right here’s an inventory of the highest third basemen on performs the place they’ve to maneuver left:
High Third Base Defenders Going Left, 2024
That’s some form of change. From his debut in 2019 by way of the top of 2023, Rojas was one of many worst within the sport when it got here to shifting left. Now, admittedly in a small pattern, he’s among the best.
Defensive metrics are liable to excessive variation in small samples. That’s simply the secret. Regardless of how nicely you measure, noise is an inherent drawback. There aren’t sufficient observations, and the observations we do have are closely depending on elements exterior of a fielder’s management. In different phrases, Rojas’ sudden enchancment may very well be a fluke.
It doesn’t look like one to me, although. Simply hearken to what the Mariners are saying, for one. Infield coach Perry Hill has a popularity for getting essentially the most out of all of his defenders. He talked to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer in regards to the enhancements Rojas has made this 12 months. He first praised Rojas’ total consistency and footwork, however he had some particular feedback too. “The backhand was a difficulty that we would have liked to handle in spring coaching,” Hill informed Kramer. “And he did. He labored on it, and he’s made some very nice backhanded performs to this point this 12 months.”
Rojas by no means struggled on backhand picks – shifting proper – in Statcast’s estimation. However protection is interconnected. Altering your positioning or setup in an try to guard a weak backhand can introduce different issues. Heck, simply having to maneuver round between positions could make it more durable to make easy performs. Between every day drilling and parking Rojas at third – he’s performed the overwhelming majority of his innings there this 12 months – he and the Mariners have seemingly addressed a weak point.
This isn’t the place to cease our investigation, nonetheless. In any case, Rojas acquired reward for his glorious protection at third in 2023, with quite a lot of quotes that sound the identical as this 12 months’s, earlier than struggling once more on the place, although he appeared higher at second.
What’s modified? In watching Rojas, one factor I observed is that he’s enjoying nearer to the plate generally this 12 months. The info bear that out. Right here’s his beginning depth, as measured by Statcast, at third base. I’ve break up it out by handedness, since shifts make depth in opposition to lefties a extra nebulous idea:
Josh Rojas, Third Base Depth By 12 months
| 12 months | Depth vs. Proper | Depth vs. Left |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 124 | 130 |
| 2022 | 124 | 121 |
| 2023 | 122 | 126 |
| 2024 | 116 | 115 |
That’s fascinating to me, and I believe it is sensible for one key purpose: Rojas has traditionally struggled with making constant throws throughout the diamond. He makes extra throwing errors than fielding errors, and whereas errors are an inherently subjective statistic, they nonetheless present some helpful info. I speculate that a few of Rojas’ challenges have come from needing to make deep throws on balls up the center.
Statcast breaks out performs by estimated success fee, which lets me inform you this: On performs the league converts at an 80% clip or higher, Rojas was abysmal from 2021 by way of 2023. We’re speaking about going to his left particularly on this article, however it’s simply as true total. He was six outs beneath common going left on straightforward performs, and 15 outs beneath common on straightforward performs total. On the powerful stuff, he was 5 outs above common, principally shifting to his proper.
Mix that with the truth that most of his errors are of the throwing selection, and also you’ll begin to get an concept of what’s happening. Loads of his issues on straightforward performs got here with him enjoying deep third base and having one thing go incorrect, whether or not it was not with the ability to get the throw off in time, sending it offline, or simply making an attempt to go too quick and messing up every little thing because of this. His worst ending positions on these 80%-plus performs had been mainly simply deep third base:
Now let’s have a look at a chart of his 80%-plus performs in 2024. Rojas has been phenomenally profitable on them, changing 99% of his choices. He’s additionally fielding the ball in a unique spot on common:
The relative sizes and colours of these containers each inform a narrative. Rojas is fielding fewer balls together with his ft close to the outfield grass, and extra coming in and to the left to chop the ball off. He’s getting simpler throws out of that change. That issues quite a bit for somebody whose largest struggles have at all times come on performs that the typical third baseman makes simply.
Examine Rojas to Matt Chapman, maybe the strongest-armed third baseman within the sport, and this can make much more sense. Chapman has been 15 outs above common on straightforward performs from 2021 by way of 2024, the identical timeframe we’re for Rojas. He’s carried out so whereas staying far again:
From 2021 by way of 2024, Chapman has performed 3 times as many innings as Rojas at third. He’s made 18 throwing errors to Rojas’ 14. He combines a cannon arm and pinpoint accuracy. Thus it’s utterly affordable for him to subject nearly all of his possibilities comparatively deep. It simply traces up nicely together with his talent set.
Earlier than this 12 months, Rojas was fielding the ball in related places to Chapman. That simply doesn’t make sense. No third baseman within the majors with 1,500 fielding innings from 2021-2024 makes throwing errors extra ceaselessly than Rojas. Chapman is among the easiest. There’s a ton extra to protection than simply not throwing the ball away – however throwing the ball away was weighing Rojas down, and he was fielding balls in positions the place he wanted to make sturdy correct throws. It was only a unhealthy setup.
I don’t suppose Rojas’ present type will proceed, as a result of once more, he’s been probably the most error-prone third basemen within the majors for years. He’s nonetheless made three throwing errors this 12 months, however all three have been forgivable, do-or-die throws in opposition to speedy runners or tough hops at not possible angles. This play is an appropriate miss:
This one, from 2021, shouldn’t be:
You need to at all times be skeptical of some of these easy explanations. There simply hasn’t been sufficient baseball performed to make sure. Possibly Rojas is simply uncommonly wholesome proper now, and the following time he feels barely off within the morning, he’ll revert to his outdated methods. Possibly he’s simply on a throwing scorching streak. Possibly pure probability has meant he hasn’t had many deep balls to subject, and he’ll be again to his outdated methods very quickly.
I’m a believer, although. There’s a constant by way of line to Rojas’ enchancment that makes me extra more likely to consider it. Standing nearer to house plate will increase your throwing consistency. Enjoying the identical place persistently as a substitute of flying across the diamond improves your total fielding consistency. Drilling with a superb infield coach improves your consistency. And what we’ve seen to this point is how Rojas seems when he’s extra constant. He’s by no means had a selected drawback with powerful performs, and now he’s making the straightforward ones. Appears like a profitable mannequin to me!