Juan Soto is a difficult participant for me to put in writing about, as a result of the numbers communicate for themselves — no literary flourish wanted. Attempting to get cute whereas writing a couple of man performing miracles isn’t baseball running a blog, it’s the Gospel of John.
However, Soto is working on such a stage (he’s hitting .316/.421/.559 by means of the weekend — all stats are present by means of Sunday’s video games) that it begs examination. Soto has one of the best batting eye of his era; due to this fact, for him, yearly is a stroll 12 months. However this season, particularly, is his ultimate one earlier than he hits the open market looking for a file long-term contract.
It’s been an advanced couple years for us Soto zealots. How can this participant demand more cash than the (deferral-adjusted) Shohei Ohtani deal? He’s by no means gained an MVP and solely completed within the prime three as soon as. He’s by no means recorded a 7-WAR season, by no means hit 40 house runs. He’s a foul defender, and up to now two seasons, he hit .242 and .275 respectively. If he’s such a uniquely invaluable participant, how come two groups gave up on him earlier than he turned 25?
Soto suffers barely within the public estimation as a result of his biggest talent is invisible. Soto has posted a .400 OBP in each season of his profession; since he debuted in 2018, no one else has achieved that greater than twice in a full 162-game season. He’s the energetic chief in stroll price by 3.3 share factors and the energetic profession OBP chief by 27 factors, each over Aaron Choose.
Soto continues to be one of the selective hitters within the majors — out of 171 certified batters, he has the fifth-lowest general swing price and chase price — however by his requirements, he’s been fairly aggressive this season. Soto is at present working, albeit by a tenth of a share level, the bottom stroll price of his profession. That’s accompanied his lowest-ever strikeout price. And when he makes contact, he’s doing extra injury; Soto at present has the best wOBA and xwOBA of his profession, except his 47-game 2020 season.
This previous winter, it was modern to recommend that Soto would adapt his recreation to enjoying within the Bronx. In spite of everything, this can be a very sturdy left-handed hitter who’d simply come from San Diego and its well-known pitcher-friendly ballpark. Now, Soto can be enjoying his house video games at Yankee Stadium, an edifice whose dimensions had been constructed to swimsuit 100 years’ value of pull-happy lefty energy hitters.
Soto may not be as huge as Choose or as thirsty for house runs as Babe Ruth, however he can rely to 314 — the gap, in ft, from house plate to the correct discipline foul pole at Yankee Stadium. That’s not very far.
I used to be skeptical; when Soto places a cost into the ball, he can hit it out. Soto is at present eighth in profession HR/FB%, main — amongst others — Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, and Austin Riley. However he’s historically been slightly groundball-happy. We’re into 12 months three of worldwide forehead-smacking over Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s incapability to do something however smash the ball extremely arduous proper into the dust in entrance of house plate. Soto and Guerrero even have equivalent profession groundball charges, and Soto’s GB/FB ratio is a pair hundredths increased.
Altering that a part of his recreation would carry nice danger for Soto; terrestrial as his batted-ball profile could be, the 25-year-old is engaged on his seventh straight season with a wRC+ over 140. It’s most decidedly not broke. Soto is, in truth, pulling the ball barely greater than he ever has, and working his lowest GB/FB price since 2019.
However this early-season explosion shouldn’t be the results of Soto looking Ruth’s brief porch. He’s hit eight house runs, which places him on tempo for 36 over a full season — precisely yet another than his earlier profession excessive. Solely two of Solo’s dingers have gone out to proper discipline at Yankee Stadium, and each of them would’ve gotten out of each stadium within the majors. Soto’s pull price of 41.7% is simply 68th out of 171 certified hitters. And as a matter of reality, Soto’s pull price on fly balls is the lowest it’s been since his rookie 12 months, as is his fly ball price on balls hit to the pull aspect.
What Soto is doing is hitting absolutely the bejeezus out of the ball, however on a comparatively low trajectory. Soto is within the backside 10% of certified hitters for fly ball price on balls hit to the pull aspect, however he’s within the prime 5% in line drive price. Right here’s what Soto has achieved yearly on batted balls to the pull aspect. The blue line is line drive price (extra is best), and the purple line is mushy contact share (much less is best):
It is a particular space of enchancment for Soto, however he’s hitting the ball extremely arduous in all places. What was merely plus or plus-plus energy is now among the many greatest in baseball, non-Choose/Ohtani division:
Juan Soto Is Hitting the Ball More durable
| 12 months | EV50 | Rank | Out of |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 101.2 | 54th | 249 |
| 2019 | 102.1 | thirty eighth | 250 |
| 2020 | 104.2 | sixth | 257 |
| 2021 | 104.6 | eleventh | 232 |
| 2022 | 102.2 | thirty sixth | 252 |
| 2023 | 104.5 | ninth | 258 |
| 2024 | 105.7 | 4th | 270 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Lastly, Soto is making higher swing choices. His O-Swing% is decrease than it’s been since 2021, which was his best-ever MVP end. His swing price on pitches throughout the zone is increased than it’s been since earlier than the pandemic. And when he does swing at pitches within the strike zone, he’s making extra contact than ever and doing extra injury. Soto’s xSLG on pitches within the strike zone is .702, which is his greatest mark since 2020 by nearly 100 factors.
Conversely, Soto is making much less contact than ever on pitches exterior the zone, which could sound like a foul factor at first. However truly, when a batter swings at a pitch exterior the strike zone, a whiff shouldn’t be essentially the worst final result. A hitter with restricted strike zone judgment would possibly attempt to sq. up a pitch exterior the zone; a hitter like Soto would possibly simply get fooled on a pitch that results in an surprising place and miss it altogether. And if a batter swings and misses, he famously will get two extra probabilities. If he reaches out and rolls over to shortstop, he doesn’t get a do-over.
We consider hitters as following a developmental curve. As they get extra expertise, they make higher choices. As they get into their mid-to-late 20s, they get stronger and hit the ball tougher. And ultimately, they get outdated and their palms or eyes go, and the decline section begins. A very precocious hitter would possibly defy that getting older curve; I bear in mind ready for Mike Trout to make one other leap in his late 20s, however he was by no means actually higher than he was in his rookie 12 months.
And it might’ve been honest to anticipate that of Soto. This man was one of the best place participant on a championship staff at an age when most huge league All-Stars are dropping their footwear at a Chi Omega mixer. You need maturity? Soto got here out of the womb with the discernment you’d anticipate from an historic, serene god. Whilst a 20-year-old, Soto hit like he’d been taking that borderline slider for 500 million years. How might he presumably get smarter and stronger?
We’re solely six weeks into the season, however it seems like that’s precisely what occurred. Soto has at all times labored miracles. Now he’s working higher miracles.