Jake Cronenworth Has Bounced Again. He Ought to Be Bouncing Again Even Extra.

On Monday, Ben Clemens printed an article containing an inventory of the hitters who’re getting probably the most energy from the fewest swings and misses. It’s a ratio of barrels to whiffs, which Ben — due to his inexhaustible capability for alliteration — calls “whomps per whiff.”

One title that stood out to me was Jake Cronenworth, who got here in seventh on the whomps per whiff leaderboard. I first encountered Cronenworth a few years in the past, when he was the Shohei Ohtani of the Large Ten, and have been mightily happy to see him evolve from a seventh-round decide to a two-time All-Star, and a beginning infielder on a Padres staff that normally buys its infielders from the Rolls Royce dealership.

A yr in the past, Cronenworth singed a seven-year contract extension that may preserve him in brown and gold into the 2030s, after which the wheels fell off.

The Padres backslid from the NLCS to round .500, and have been shedding star gamers ever because the dying of beloved proprietor Peter Seidler final November. And final yr, Cronenworth was one of many avatars of that decline. A line drive-spraying second baseman for the primary three years of his profession, he moved to first base, and quite than enhancing his bat to suit the offensive calls for of his new place, he began hitting like a catcher. That seven-year contract, initially seen as a discount, now regarded extra like a millstone.

Fortunate for Cronenworth, and the Padres, he seems to be bouncing again. Cronenworth was by no means a famous person; over the primary three seasons of his profession, he averaged a wRC+ of 115, and 4.0 WAR per 162 staff video games. (As a result of Cronenworth’s greatest season was his 60-game rookie marketing campaign, he has a greater WAR/162 than his profession excessive. One other fascinating statistical artifact of the pandemic.)

The Padres, presumably, would accept that after Cronenworth hit .229/.312/.378 final yr and flirted with alternative stage. And certain sufficient, via the Padres’ first 25 video games — of which Cronenworth has performed 23 — he’s again to a wRC+ of 115 and on tempo for 3.2 WAR. (The entire stats for this yr included under are up to date via the tip of play Monday.)

Besides, what is that this undersized, line drive-hitting first baseman, this Millennial Mientkewicz, doing close to the highest of a whomps per whiff leaderboard?

Cronenworth is whiffing much less, however solely simply; he’s lacking on 14.9% of his swings this yr, down a good proportion level from 2023. Reasonably, Cronenworth is whomping extra. Much more.

See, Cronenworth is hitting the bejeezus out of the baseball this yr. Even in his higher seasons, Cronenworth lived across the twentieth percentile in HardHit% and across the median in barrel price and the assorted anticipated stats. He bought by on making loads of contact and spraying the ball to all fields — he was by no means some Statcast darling, no less than not since his extraordinarily truncated rookie yr.

I’ve bought two questions: First, is he really doing one thing totally different? And second, if that’s the case, why aren’t his outcomes matching as much as his high quality of contact? This nonetheless being April, Occam’s Razor says the reply to each is “small pattern,” but when I don’t no less than ask, I don’t have something to write down about.

To the primary query: Cronenworth does appear to be making higher swing choices. He’s all the time had glorious strike zone judgement, however Baseball Savant has Cronenworth’s chase price right down to 21.9%, from 26.4% final yr. In the meantime his general swing price is down three proportion factors whereas his in-zone swing price is up seven-tenths of a degree. Up to now, so good.

Cronenworth has additionally modified his batting stance. Right here he’s in 2021, when his xwOBA was .344, his greatest mark for a full season. (All three of those screencaps are from video games at Coors Subject, which has an beautiful dead-on heart subject digital camera angle.)

Arms low and away from the physique, bat at 11 o’clock, impartial stance. Appears like offense to me.

Let’s verify in two years later, from this recreation in 2023.

Cronenworth’s legs and bat angle are about the identical, however he’s moved his arms up and in and his higher physique is leaned again. It seems to be like he’s doing the Bernie, and I promise it’s much more exaggerated on broadcasts from Petco Park.

Quick ahead to 2024.

Right here, you possibly can see that Cronenworth has clearly both been to the chiropractor or made a aware effort to face extra upright, maybe even leaning ahead ever so barely. Additionally, discover how he’s holding his bat. I do know it’s a bit laborious to see right here, as a result of after utilizing blond wooden within the earlier screencaps, Cronenworth has gone to a black-over-blond lacquer job, which makes his bat seem like the world’s largest chocolate Pocky. Extra to the purpose, the darker bat blends in with the stands and the railing behind dwelling plate, however make no mistake, his arms are means greater and his bat — beforehand held at about 11 o’clock from the pitcher’s vantage level — is now extra like 1 / 4 to 10.

Clearly it’s working. Cronenworth is whomping 3 times as continuously as he did final yr; and his HardHit% is up by a 3rd. All with zero deleterious results on his contact potential or stroll price.

And but, he’s underperforming his exit velo and launch angle numbers by near 80 factors of batting common and nearly 130 factors of slugging proportion. Is he simply working into outs and sure for an infinite Could? Maybe. However I’d prefer to suggest another speculation. Let’s take a look at the place Cronenworth is hitting the ball.

The very first thing I seen this season is that Cronenworth is 1) hitting extra line drives, which I feel we will all agree is an unalloyed good, and a pair of) hitting to a kind of even groundball-to-fly ball ratio, after two seasons of placing the ball within the air extra. Typically, hitting the ball within the air results in extra dwelling runs, however that’s extra true the extra you pull the ball.

Cronenworth has by no means been a pull hitter, and he’s by no means been much less of a pull hitter than he has been thus far in 2024. For somebody like him, particularly an above-average runner who hits left-handed, it is sensible to attempt to hit extra line drives. I’m not saying he wants to show into Tim Anderson and simply beat the ball into the grime on a regular basis, however a GB/FB ratio of about 1.2 is likely to be extra worthwhile than a ratio of 0.8, all issues thought-about.

Virtually a yr in the past to the day, I examined the misfortunes of Orioles first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who was underperforming his anticipated stats and struggling via BABIP hell on the time. I’ll restate what I mentioned then: xwOBA and its brothers account for exit velo and launch angle, however not batted ball route, and batted ball route issues fairly a bit.

Typically, line drives are the very best type of hit irrespective of in what route they go. However you wish to hit the ball to the pull facet within the air — consider any beefy left-handed hitter clearing his hips and yanking the ball down the road and into the second deck — and to the alternative subject on the bottom.

Why are opposite-field grounders so helpful? Possibly as a result of pull-side grounders have a tendency to enter no matter shade or shift the protection places on, not that that may be an issue for Cronenworth, who doesn’t pull the ball a lot. Or as a result of, paradoxically, loads of laborious grounders flip into simple outs, whereas a swinging bunt off the tip of a lefty’s bat can roll up the road and into the arms of a 3rd baseman who’s resigned to being too late to make the out. Who is aware of?

And right here’s the uncooked totals for every route of batted ball for Cronenworth in 2021, 2023, and thus far in 2024. Keep in mind, you wish to hit the ball the opposite means on the bottom and pull the ball within the air.

And Cronenworth is doing the exact opposite. He all the time has to some extent, however this yr, half of his fly balls have gone to heart. That’s unhealthy if for no different motive than the fence is one thing like 70 toes farther away in heart subject than it’s down the traces. That’s why Cronenworth has hit 16 balls 325 toes or extra this yr, and 12 of them have gone for outs. His xSLG on these balls is 1.514; his precise SLG is simply .875.

Once we’re coping with batted ball totals within the mid-double digits, there are most likely some pattern dimension kinks that’ll work themselves out by October. However Cronenworth, sarcastically, is being betrayed by his potential to hit to all fields. He’s getting loads of whomp for his whiff, however tragically little bang for his whomp.