The highest prospect designation is a curse as usually as it’s a blessing. The identical goes for the star rookie label, and Gary Sánchez is aware of it effectively. Whereas he has established himself as a serviceable large league catcher over the previous six years, he nonetheless performs within the shadow of his star-making rookie and sophomore campaigns. And although he’s had his ups and downs, he’s been a strong participant within the years following his lone Silver Slugger season. Since 2018, he ranks tenth amongst energetic catchers with 8.6 WAR; since 2021, he’s 14th with 4.6. But his repute stays that of a disappointment. His struggles are amplified, and his successes are missed.
Sánchez went unsigned through the 2022–23 offseason, lastly incomes a minor league cope with the Giants on the second day of the common season. After a month at Triple-A, he opted out of his contract, signing a brand new minor league cope with the Mets shortly thereafter. And though he did make his method onto New York’s energetic roster, his keep within the majors was transient; after three video games, he was designated for project. It wasn’t till late Could, when the Padres scooped him up off waivers, that Sánchez lastly discovered a path to common enjoying time.
But it’s not as if he had a horrible season the yr earlier than. In 2022, he ranked sixth amongst major catchers in video games performed and twentieth in innings behind the dish. By our calculation, he was price 1.3 WAR, twenty second amongst catchers. That didn’t flip any heads, however 1.3 WAR was greater than 12 groups bought from the catching place in 2022. And it’s not as if he was due for regression. Regardless of his low .290 wOBA, he had a .321 xwOBA — barely larger than league common, and considerably higher than common for a catcher. Whereas his energy numbers had been down, he tore the duvet off the ball, posting hard-hit and barrel charges within the 92nd percentile. Heading into his age-30 marketing campaign, his fiftieth percentile ZiPS projection for 2023 was 1.7 WAR. In the event you presume a win is price about $8 million in free company, that projection interprets to $13.6 million on a one-year deal.
So why did Sánchez have a lot bother discovering a brand new dwelling for 2023? Clearly, his skillset was underrated across the league; 11 catchers signed for extra money that winter, but just one, Willson Contreras, ended up producing extra WAR. However the larger downside was that solely a handful of groups wanted new catchers for 2023, and people who did simply went in several instructions, leaving Sánchez and not using a market.
Now 31 years outdated, Sánchez is coming off a greater season than he had in 2022, albeit a shorter one. His 111 wRC+ ranked eleventh amongst major catchers (min. 250 PA), and his .340 xwOBA was his highest mark since 2019. With 1.7 WAR, he supplied the Padres with extra worth than 14 groups bought from their catchers all season. However as soon as once more, it appears like he’ll have bother discovering a brand new workforce. As was the case final winter, the issue isn’t that he wouldn’t make any golf equipment higher behind the plate, however that just about each workforce has a enough catching state of affairs in place, and most of them could be pleased with what they have already got — or not less than completely happy sufficient that they’re not going to mess with their plans for a marginal improve.
It’s a wierd place for Sánchez to be in. He’s both the very best or the second-best backstop available on the market, relying on how a lot of a catcher you suppose Mitch Garver actually is. He ranked thirty fifth on our High 50 Free Brokers record, and Ben Clemens predicted he’d signal for one yr and $10 million, a wonderfully cheap estimate given the skinny catching market and his efficiency in 2023.
This chart breaks down the projected catching state of affairs for all 30 golf equipment (per Roster Useful resource). I’ve separated the groups into three tiers based mostly on their catching state of affairs. The traces between the classes are, by pressure of circumstance, a bit of fuzzy, however they get the job completed:
The Catching Panorama for 2024
The three groups with essentially the most obvious want behind the plate are the Pink Sox, Rays, and Marlins. Boston has a few cost-controlled, young-ish catchers on the roster in McGuire and Wong. A yr in the past, I might need mentioned the Sox ought to simply give these two an opportunity, however that’s precisely what they did in 2023, with out a lot success; their catchers mixed for simply 10 dwelling runs, a 78 wRC+, and 1.0 WAR. They don’t challenge to be significantly better in 2024, both. Sadly for Sánchez, Boston’s wants additionally make it the obvious touchdown spot for Garver. With Wong, McGuire, and Masataka Yoshida on the roster, the Sox don’t want a full-time catcher or DH. What they may use, nonetheless, is an enormous bat for the center of the order who can cut up time between these two positions.
The Rays have a barely extra promising tandem behind the plate in Pinto and Jackson, however neither has a stranglehold on a beginning job, and Jackson isn’t even on the 40-man roster. That is the Rays we’re speaking about, although, and it’s arduous to think about they’ll spend on Sánchez.
The Marlins appear to be the subsequent most rational match. Their projected beginning catcher, Fortes, is a standout defender, due to his glorious blocking and above-average framing abilities. That mentioned, his offense was a dumpster-fire catastrophe final season, and that’s placing it politely. Solely two NL hitters (min. 300 PA) had a decrease OPS than his .562: his teammates Joey Wendle and Jean Segura. It comes as little shock that the Marlins “stay open to discovering a catcher who would begin or share time with [Fortes],” as just lately reported by the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson and Craig Mish. However the identify Jackson and Mish point out is former Cardinals backup Andrew Knizner. If that’s the market the Marlins are buying in, Sánchez in all probability isn’t within the finances.
After the Pink Sox, Rays, and Marlins, effectively… that’s just about it, by way of groups with common enjoying time to supply. The Cubs and Rockies might use an improve, however they’re prone to keep on with the veterans they’ve who’re nonetheless below contract. In the meantime, the Pirates, Reds, Nationals, Athletics, and Angels don’t challenge to get a lot manufacturing from their catchers, however they’re all relying on promising younger backstops to take a step ahead in 2024.
If Sánchez is keen to take a again seat, there could possibly be a spot for him in Milwaukee or Arizona. The Brewers and Diamondbacks every have a superb younger catcher, however their backup conditions are dangerous, to say the least. What’s extra, every might use extra offense, and each groups ought to have reps to supply at DH. The large query is that if both workforce could be keen to spend on Sánchez as a substitute of cheaper backup choices like Yasmani Grandal, Martín Maldonado, Tom Murphy, Austin Nola, or Eric Haase.
Different groups which may have had a spot for Sánchez coming into the offseason have seemingly already stuffed that gap. His former workforce, the Padres, had been the one membership formally linked to him this winter, however they just lately acquired Kyle Higashioka from the Yankees to work alongside former prime prospect Luis Campusano. In the meantime, the Astros just lately signed Victor Caratini to a two-year deal, and the White Sox scooped up Max Stassi from the Braves. Are any of Higashioka, Caratini, or Stassi higher than Sánchez? Not essentially. However after investing in these backstops, it’s arduous to think about the Padres, Astros, or White Sox would pursue one other catcher.
Certainly, that sums up the issue Sánchez is going through. Loads of groups might use an improve behind the plate, however do they need that improve badly sufficient to spend eight figures on one other catcher? In fact, the Pink Sox are the one workforce I can image making that type of provide, however they’re not going to make it with none competitors. Thus, the very best pure catcher out there this winter might wind up ready, ready, and ready earlier than signing one other low-value deal. It’s a skinny marketplace for catchers, but it surely’s additionally a skinny market for catchers. Sánchez could possibly be in for an additional lengthy wait.