This isn’t how they drew it up on the North Aspect this winter. The Cubs gained 92 video games in 2025, after which they made some additions within the winter. The Brewers, in the meantime, subtracted. Chicago had one of the best playoff odds of any group within the NL Central, whether or not you’re speaking about our odds, PECOTA’s odds, or just about any projection system you’ll be able to title. The Cubs had thrilling rookies, battle-tested veterans, and enjoyable vibes. Absolutely, they’d sail by 2026.
Almost two weeks into the season, it’s truthful to say that issues haven’t gone in line with plan. There’s the standings, for one factor: They’re in final place within the NL Central. However this early within the 12 months, solely 4 video games separate first and final within the division, in order that’s not the largest downside in Wrigleyville. A much bigger concern is that Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd, two of Chicago’s prime beginning pitchers, hit the IL on consecutive days. Seiya Suzuki hasn’t appeared but this 12 months, although he’s anticipated again on Friday.
Horton’s harm seems to be to be the worst of the 2. He left final Friday’s begin after feeling forearm discomfort, and after getting some scans over the weekend, he’s in search of a second opinion from Dr. Keith Meister. That ominous flip of phrase doesn’t assure a long-term harm, after all, but it surely’s undoubtedly not signal. Pitchers don’t typically search second opinions from well-known surgeons except there’s a good probability of surgical procedure.
Boyd was imagined to be the protected possibility within the Cubs rotation. We had him down for essentially the most innings and essentially the most WAR, the workers ace. His bicep pressure won’t be all that dangerous; he famous that he might have pitched by the harm if it weren’t so early within the 12 months. However that’s not likely the character of pitcher accidents, in my expertise. Positive, typically they’re quick. However a assured minimal keep doesn’t exist. I believe it’s cheap to be frightened about Boyd’s prognosis till he’s again on a significant league mound, despite the fact that he appears prone to return far prior to Horton.
The Cubs, to their credit score, collected loads of pitching depth this winter. Justin Steele isn’t due again till round midseason, so that they made certain to inventory their roster with extra high quality choices than there have been turns within the rotation. Javier Assad, who has made 36 begins for the Cubs during the last two years, was recalled from Triple-A to fill one rotation spot. He’s not a frontline possibility – as you may think, what along with his beginning the season within the minors and all – however he’s solidly above alternative stage. He’s been a lot better out of the bullpen within the majors, however in case you want a number of weeks of competent beginning pitching, he greater than suits the invoice.
Colin Rea, who slid over from lengthy aid to say the opposite spot within the rotation, is a distinct verse of the identical tune. Like Assad, I wouldn’t wish to go right into a season with him as one among my prime 5 choices. His finest season as a significant leaguer was 2025, and even then, he carried out just about like a fifth starter. He struggles significantly with left-handed hitters, a weak point that’s minimized out of the bullpen, and he doesn’t miss sufficient bats to make up for the loud contact he permits. However, additionally like Assad, I’d be happy if my break-glass-in-case-of-emergency possibility was as achieved as Rea. On the level the place we’re asking who ought to be the eighth starter on the depth chart (counting Steele), beggars can’t be choosers.
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Nevertheless, don’t take my appreciation of Chicago’s pitching depth as an announcement that all the things is okay. Our Depth Charts tasks this group to have the ninth-worst rotation in baseball the remainder of the 12 months, and that counts the manufacturing from guys who’re anticipated to return from harm. Shedding two of your prime starters two weeks into the 12 months hurts. Doing that whereas your finest man nonetheless isn’t again from elbow surgical procedure is even worse. However that is principally anticipated. The Cubs got here into the 12 months projected to have baseball’s Eleventh-worst rotation in our Positional Energy Rankings, and so they had been nonetheless the favourite to win the division.
Fortunately for the Cubs, two of their three wholesome starters have been on level to start the 12 months. Edward Cabrera, their massive commerce acquisition this winter, hasn’t allowed a run but. The peripherals aren’t fairly as fairly – a 14.6% stroll price means he in all probability gained’t stay unscathed for lengthy – however the Cubs introduced him in so as to add size to their rotation, and he hasn’t been scored on. It’s exhausting to argue with these early returns. Shota Imanaga, who briefly flirted with free company earlier than returning to the Cubs on a qualifying provide, seems to be like he’s going to be stable, too. It’s solely been two begins, however he’s seemed good to my eyes, and each of our pitching fashions suppose that that is one of the best he’s been as a Cub.
Jameson Taillon, the final member of the rotation, is off to a bumpy begin. He averted injury in his first begin, in opposition to the woeful Angels, however solely barely – he walked 4 and solely struck out three. In his second begin, the Rays tagged him for 2 homers. His velocity is down. His stuff, by no means a power, grades out worse than ever. If it weren’t for the accidents, it’s cheap to suppose that the Cubs can be contemplating swapping Rea into the rotation within the quick time period anyway – just for an ineffective Taillon as an alternative of for an injured Horton.
Amid the pitching woes, Suzuki’s absence hasn’t slowed the Cubs down on offense. Matt Shaw has performed almost each day in his place; it’s good to have a prime prospect as a utility participant. Alex Bregman’s gradual begin has been offset by robust manufacturing from stalwarts Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ. I really feel roughly nearly as good concerning the Cubbie offense as I did earlier than the 12 months started. I’m a bit frightened about Bregman’s slot in Wrigley, and I’m eagerly watching Pete Crow-Armstrong to see how he adjusts to a gentle eating regimen of offspeed junk, however all the things else seems to be in good order to me.
Give the Chicago entrance workplace its due: President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has constructed this group with a number of harm replacements. Most golf equipment would look extra diminished than the Cubs do whereas lacking three of their chosen beginning rotation members and one among their finest hitters. However nonetheless, they’re lacking three of their beginning rotation members and one among their finest hitters. That’s fairly clearly dangerous. And in addition to, this group’s gradual begin started earlier than the accidents to Horton and Boyd. Neither Rea, nor Assad has had a flip within the rotation but, and every of them will likely be making at the very least three begins apiece earlier than reinforcements arrive. Issues won’t get higher instantly.
Even so, it’s hardly time to panic. However it’s a reminder of how skinny the margins within the playoff chase are with few true doormats to rely out. The one NL group who has seen its playoff probabilities decline by as a lot as Chicago’s within the early going? That’d be the Giants, who’re permitting almost twice as many runs as they rating. The Cubs now have the seventh-best odds of constructing the playoffs within the NL. Solely six groups make the playoffs. You are able to do the mathematics.
I believe that’s encapsulation of what’s gone down to date. The Cubs haven’t performed significantly poorly, however they’ve noticed their division rivals, all of whom began sizzling, some video games within the standings. On the identical time, a collection of accidents has impeded their capability to get these video games again – or at the very least our forecast of their capability to get these video games again, as represented by their true expertise stage. We had them as a .523 group earlier than the season; now, we now have them at .512 for the remainder of the season. Whenever you put it that means, their decline in odds is smart.
That mentioned, the Cubs aren’t in dire straits but. We’re 10 video games into the season. Fortunes have a ton of time to rise and fall. A depressing April can value you a playoff spot, however the Cubs are 4-6, not staring down a 2-8 report or something. And much more impressively, they aren’t out of rotation choices. Ben Brown, who made 15 begins final 12 months, is at present working in lengthy aid. Like Assad and Rea, he’s in all probability best-suited as a reliever, with iffy command holding again a pleasant fastball/curveball combo. I wouldn’t be excited to place Brown in my rotation, however he’s the ninth possibility on Chicago’s depth chart. In that context, he’s hilariously far above common.
Even the hitters have some harm insulation. Suzuki has already performed the sector in rehab video games, and the Cubs introduced that they anticipate him to rejoin the key league roster this Friday and play the outfield instantly. That frees Shaw as much as float across the diamond in a superutility function. Between Hoerner’s capability to slip over to quick and Shaw’s versatility, the Cubs can climate an harm to any starter and nonetheless have the ability to area an inexpensive lineup. It’s not like hitters get injured all that always relative to pitchers, anyway.
So, are the Cubs battered early? Most undoubtedly. They’re one of the crucial injured groups in baseball for the time being, with 4 good gamers already on the shelf. However they’re not fried but. They’re not that far behind within the standings. They’d a metric ton of replacements accessible, and so they nonetheless have a number of choices even now. The answer to their harm issues proper now could be primarily “their 2025 rotation” – Assad, Rea, and Brown mixed for 49 begins final 12 months – and that group gained 92 video games and made the playoffs. I believe it is a glad scenario, despite the fact that it seems to be unhappy on its face. Each group offers with harm at one level or one other. The Cubs are strikingly nicely set as much as get by theirs. Now, if they might solely get Crow-Armstrong and Bregman going.