Andrew Painter made his main league debut on Tuesday, because the Phillies have been coming off a three-game dropping streak. That’s a troublesome task; I do know it’s the primary week of the season, however that has by no means stopped Phillies followers — who even in the perfect of instances are at all times on the lookout for a motive to leap off a bridge — from declaring the staff irretrievably cooked.
Not so quick, my buddies. As a result of anybody who’s keen to overreact to a one-game pattern in April should be over the moon about Painter.
Painter, who turns 23 subsequent month, was one of many high pitching prospects in the complete sport within the 2022-23 offseason. At age 19, he was promoted to Double-A, the place he posted a 2.54 ERA in 5 begins and struck out 37, whereas strolling simply two, in 28 1/3 innings. As 2023 dawned, there was a not-unreasonable expectation that Painter would contribute down the stretch in his age-20 season, maybe as a bullpen stopper, like a younger David Worth or Adam Wainwright, or maybe within the rotation. (Bear in mind, this was earlier than Cristopher Sánchez was the world-destroying ace he’s change into.)
However Painter’s elbow began barking, and an early hesitation to sending him to get Tommy John surgical procedure led to each 2023 and 2024 being written off. With two years of rust, Painter struggled in 2025, pitching to an ERA over 5.00 throughout two minor league ranges, and the primary single-digit Okay/9 ratio of his skilled profession. The Phillies pitched effectively final postseason, however they nonetheless may’ve used Painter. He merely hadn’t earned the call-up that he’d seemingly had within the bag since early 2023.
He dropped his arm slot and misplaced a ton of life off his fastball whereas getting back from Tommy John, however the promise remained. He was not the highest pitching prospect in baseball, nor the highest prospect within the Phillies’ system, however he rated no. 27 total this previous offseason and eighth amongst pitching prospects, with a 55-FV grade. That is nonetheless Philadelphia’s most anticipated rookie pitcher since at the very least Cole Hamels.
It speaks to the Phillies’ religion within the younger right-hander that they didn’t exit and get something resembling a like-for-like substitute for the departing Ranger Suarez. With Zack Wheeler on the mend from thoracic outlet syndrome, that left Painter within the massive league rotation with no security internet. I genuinely have no idea who beginning pitcher no. 6 is for the Phillies proper now, however I’m confronted with the likelihood that it is likely to be Bryse Wilson if 40-man roster glut weren’t a consideration.
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So, yeah, there’s a little bit of stress on Painter.
If he was feeling that stress, you couldn’t inform. Painter, who stands an Ent-like 6-foot-7, strolled serenely to the mound for his first aggressive massive league motion. And pretty much as good because the stuff and the outcomes have been — don’t fear, I’m getting there — Painter’s composure appeared to impress his teammates most.
Bear in mind, the Phillies are, typically talking, previous as hell. They’ve been across the block. Matt Gelb of The Athletic famous earlier than the sport that Tuesday’s was the primary Phillies lineup in 5 and a half years to function two gamers aged 22 or youthful. Gelb quoted Jesús Luzardo, Brandon Marsh, and J.T. Realmuto praising Painter’s composure in his gamer. Kyle Schwarber and Adolis García echoed these sentiments of their postgame remarks.
Nevertheless it doesn’t matter how calm a rookie pitcher is that if he’s throwing slop and getting shelled. So let’s test Painter’s stuff and outcomes.
Sure, the Nationals’ lineup isn’t that good total, however it options just a few difficult hitters: CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile, and the genuinely capital-D Harmful James Wooden. Joey Wiemer is coming off a run of actually not making an out for 10 straight plate appearances, although it appears to be like just like the magic (or quantum ray energy) has lastly worn off.
The worth proposition for Painter is that there’s nothing bizarre about him. He’s simply what an ace appears to be like like. He’s large, he throws arduous, he has a diversified arsenal of six pitches… there’s simply nothing to speak your self into on the scouting report.
Painter throws two fastballs, a four-seamer and sinker, each of which sat 94-97 and topped out at 98.7 mph. He hit that determine twice within the first inning, when he was freshest and the adrenaline was absolutely pumping hardest, however he received again to 98.6 mph within the fourth.
Like a variety of trendy starters, Painter has one search for left-handed hitters and one other for righties. The platoon benefit works as a result of breaking balls transfer away from same-handed batters and towards opposite-handed hitters. So pitchers like Painter, who’ve a number of fastballs and breaking balls, need to work side-to-side towards same-handed batters and up-and-down towards opposite-handed ones. Which means four-seamer, sinker, slider, sweeper towards righties, and four-seamer, slider, curveball, changeup towards lefties in Painter’s case.
Nationals supervisor Blake Butera loaded up on the previous. With six lefties and two switch-hitters within the lineup, Wiemer was the one right-handed batter Painter confronted all night, so we noticed a variety of his four-seamer, slider, curveball, and changeup, and comparatively little of his sinker and sweeper.
Painter was type sufficient to get at the very least one strikeout on every pitch from that first group of 4, to be able to see all of them on this spotlight video.
Painter’s first and final strikeouts got here towards Wooden, and each got here from working fastball up, curveball down, to alter Wooden’s eye stage and mess up his timing. He struck out within the fifth inning after taking an 80.6-mph curveball for a strike, after which chasing a 97.2-mph four-seamer up and away.
With the fastball and curveball established, Painter may tunnel his changeup right into a center floor by way of motion and velocity. The scouting report on Painter has “FASTBALL VELOCITY” and “NASTY CURVEBALL” written in all caps, however the changeup is a brand new weapon, maybe the one optimistic growth from his forgettable 2025 season in Lehigh Valley.
He was capable of paint the underside left-hand nook of the strike zone together with his changeup to get Luis García Jr. trying within the third, and he did it once more to Jorbit Vivas within the fourth. Each of these pitches have been proper on the sting of the zone, however Painter labored there so successfully that the Nats have been out of challenges when Vivas tried to summon ABS to bail him out.
And when Painter did enable contact, it was fairly innocuous. He let up 12 balls in play out of 21 batters confronted. Solely three of these batted balls had an xBA of .100 or increased, and just one reached Baseball Savant’s hard-hit threshold of 95 mph. That was the final pitch Painter threw all evening: Abrams ripped it to proper for a single, and Phillies supervisor Rob Thomson, wanting his rookie starter to exit on a optimistic, pulled the plug.
The harm the Nats did towards Painter, such because it was, didn’t do a lot to discredit the rookie’s effort. Lile appeared to have Painter’s quantity, reaching twice, however a kind of two got here on a popup that 4 totally different Phillies misplaced within the lights. As a normal rule, when somebody tags Jon Bois on social media with “watching baseball,” it doesn’t communicate effectively of what’s depicted.
@jonbois.bsky.social watching baseball
— buck_knife (@buckknife.bsky.social) 2026-04-01T02:17:28.626Z
The state of perpetual garment-rending across the Phillies is likely to be unhelpful, as I discussed up high, however as debuts go, at dwelling in April towards the Nats is a reasonably gentle task for a rookie. Painter aced it, so to talk, however that success solely earns him a brand new set of inquiries to reply. Can he get it achieved towards deeper lineups? Can he survive a 3rd time via the order? Can he maintain his velocity? In that case, how far up the rotation can he climb — a query that would change into fairly related given the questions on Wheeler’s well being and Aaron Nola’s getting kidnapped by aliens final yr.
However that’s life within the massive leagues. The hits simply carry on coming. Or, in Painter’s case, possibly they gained’t.