Sal Stewart Has Leveled Up

Sal Stewart made a promising exhibiting when the Reds referred to as him up final September, clubbing 5 house runs in 18 video games whereas serving to Cincinnati attain the postseason for the primary time since 2020. His 2026 marketing campaign is off to a flying begin, as nicely. Not solely did he financial institution NL Participant of the Week honors for the season’s opening week, however his efficiency underscores the notion — supported by each scouting and statistical projections — that he’s leveled up considerably.

By means of the Reds’ first six video games, the 22-year-old first baseman has put up video-game numbers, batting .474/.615/.947 (313 wRC+) with two homers in 26 plate appearances. His scorching streak started with an eventful Opening Day; whereas the Reds misplaced to the Crimson Sox, 3-0, it was hardly his fault. He went 3-for-4, together with a pair of bases-empty doubles, one apiece off starter Garrett Crochet and reliever Garrett Whitlock, in addition to a single to proper subject off Crochet with males on first and second. With third base coach Willie Harris cautious of testing two-time Gold Glove winner Wilyer Abreu’s arm, lead runner Matt McLain was held up and finally stranded.

Stewart additionally survived a scare within the fifth inning, when a 110-mph liner off the bat of Roman Anthony hit his left wrist as he tried to backhand the ball. He was shaken up however remained within the recreation, and reassuringly collected two of his three hits after being drilled.

Two days later, in Cincinnati’s second recreation towards the Crimson Sox, Stewart went 2-for-4 with an RBI single and 399-foot wall-scraping solo homer off Sonny Grey, and he later drew a stroll within the Reds’ 6-5, 11-inning victory. He went 2-for-2 with a pair of walks and a double off reliever Jovani Morán in Sunday’s 3-2 win over Boston, after which 1-for-2 with one other pair of walks in a 2-0 win over Pittsburgh on Monday. With that, Stewart turned the primary Crimson in 38 years to achieve base thrice in every of the group’s first 4 video games of the season. The final to do so had been Kal Daniels in 1988, and the final Cincinnati participant to start out the season with even three such video games was Barry Larkin in 2001. In accordance to MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, at 22 years and 113 days outdated, Stewart additionally turned the youngest participant for any group to take action since at the very least 1900.

Stewart collected only one hit in Tuesday’s 8-3 loss to the Pirates, a solo homer off Hunter Barco, after which lastly went hitless in one other 8-3 loss on Wednesday afternoon. His 0-for-3 included a stroll that instantly preceded Eugenio Suárez’s two-run pinch homer; the most effective he may handle towards Paul Skenes was a 96.5-mph groundout.

We’re in small-sample season, however what’s been spectacular about Stewart up to now is how arduous he’s hit the ball, in step with what he did throughout final 12 months’s call-up, and the way selective he’s been, in distinction to that stint. I’ll get to the statistical comparisons, however first, some background.

The Reds selected Stewart out of Westminster Christian College with the thirty second choose within the 2022 draft, a compensation choose for shedding Nick Castellanos in free company. Although Stewart had dedicated to Vanderbilt, he signed for a $2.1 million bonus. He hit nicely at each cease from the Complicated League on up, shifting by A-level Daytona and Excessive-A Dayton in 2023, and thru Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville in ’25. He probably would have break up the 2024 season between Dayton and Chattanooga had he not suffered a freak damage throughout that 12 months’s All-Star break. Whereas wading within the ocean, he slipped and landed on a shell that severed a tendon in his proper wrist, requiring season-ending surgical procedure.

Irrespective of. Nonetheless simply 21 on the time, Stewart hit .306/.377/.473 (146 wRC+) with a 15.5% strikeout price in 80 video games at Chattanooga final 12 months, incomes a spot within the Futures Sport and a promotion to Triple-A. Throughout that run in Chattanooga, Eric Longenhagen gave Stewart a 40+ FV, praising his potential to regulate to breaking pitches and his constant contact and energy knowledge, however expressing reservations about his potential to catch as much as increased velocity and his restricted athleticism. As had been the case because the begin of his minor league profession, he was primarily enjoying third base, with a while at second, as nicely. Longenhagen famous Stewart’s good arms and fast change, but additionally his restricted vary and subpar throwing, grading his fielding 30 PV/40 FV.

Stewart made quick work of Louisville, batting .315/.394/.629 (152 wRC+) with 10 homers in simply 38 video games earlier than being referred to as up by the Reds. Supervisor Terry Francona shoehorned him into the lineup round nook infield incumbents Spencer Steer and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Although Stewart had performed simply two minor league video games at first base to that time, the Reds slotted him there for his September 1 debut and for 11 of his 17 defensive appearances, along with his different six at third. His defensive metrics in that point don’t inform us a lot, although Baseball America famous that his quickest throw from third base (78.4 mph) was nonetheless 7 mph under the most important league common on the place (85.6 mph).

The larger story was Stewart’s bat. He hit .255/.293/.545 (124 wRC+) in 58 plate appearances, with out-of-character stroll and strikeout charges of 5.2% and 25.9% (in comparison with 9.3% and 15.6% at Louisville), however eye-opening Statcast metrics on his 40 batted balls: a 95.4 mph common exit velocity, 17.5% barrel price, 52.5% hard-hit price, and .626 anticipated slugging proportion. Forty batted balls is on the sting of the place exit velocity begins to stabilize, and that EV matched Aaron Choose’s 2025 common, which ranked second within the majors. Whereas Stewart’s most exit velocity of 112.6 mph was solely on the perimeter of the higher third of qualifiers, the opposite numbers cited above would have positioned him within the 94th percentile or increased.

Upgraded to a 50-FV prospect, Stewart positioned thirty fourth on our preseason Prime 100 Prospects record, along with his hit instrument bettering from 35 PV/45 FV to 50/55, and his uncooked energy from 50/50 to 55/55. Our prospect group famous his changes:

He tends to be late on fastballs and is never on time to drag them within the air, and we nervous his contact potential would dip as he confronted higher velo, and that this could make his general manufacturing extra demure, particularly if/when the motionless Stewart strikes to first base. Although he nonetheless has a stark inside-out batted ball profile, he’s made mechanical tweaks to preempt this potential problem, and he’s such an distinctive hitter in mainly each different means that he’s arguably as certain a factor as a bat-first prospect might be after torching the higher minors…

The prospect group additional gushed about Stewart’s pitch recognition, potential to regulate his swing on the fly, and knack for making high-quality contact even when chasing pithes out of the zone. On the subject of higher-velocity stuff, they added, “He’s nonetheless usually late on fastballs, however not so late that he misses them altogether. He merely retains the second baseman and proper fielder busy by driving them the opposite means. His splits towards high-velocity heaters have been very favorable: In a 225-pitch pattern towards pitches 94 mph and above in 2025, he had a 1.042 OPS.”

Stewart has but to drag a four-seamer or sinker within the air this 12 months; the truth is, he has pulled only one pitch of any sort within the air up to now (6.3% of his batted balls), his double off a curveball from Morán.

By way of what’s exhibiting up within the numbers, a number of issues stand out, together with how Stewart is standing within the batter’s field. Relative to final September, he’s moved about 4 inches nearer to the plate, widened the space between his ft by about three inches, closed his stance by 5 levels (from 16 levels open to 11 open), with a steeper tilt to his swing (from 29 levels to 33), and brought a extra opposite-field assault path (from two levels to 11).

Past that, final 12 months with the Reds, Stewart swung at 52.1% of pitches and chased 32.7% exterior the zone. Thus far this 12 months, he’s minimize means again, swinging at simply 41.7% of pitches general, with a 22.8% chase price. He’s obtained a ridiculous 26.9% stroll price and an 11.5% strikeout price to point out for it (seven walks and three strikeouts in 26 plate appearances), however sadly, the Reds haven’t achieved a lot to capitalize. Suárez batted simply .190/.227/.333 whereas hitting fifth behind him in the course of the first 5 video games earlier than coming off the bench to homer on Wednesday. Steer, who has hit sixth in 5 of the six video games, is batting simply .059/.150/.059 up to now. All instructed, the Reds have scored simply 17 runs in six video games whereas hitting a collective .187/.298/.316 (78 wRC+), with Suárez (now .217/.250/.478 for a 100 wRC+) and Elly De La Cruz (.208/.296/.458, 111 wRC+) the one different gamers with at the very least 10 plate appearances and a wRC+ of at the very least 100.

The opposite factor that stands out about Stewart is his Statcast numbers:

He has hit the ball even more durable than final 12 months, albeit in a smaller pattern. Even setting that exit velocity apart, I don’t assume there are lots of gamers working barrel and hard-hit charges or anticipated slugging percentages and wOBAs that prime over their first 56 batted balls within the majors. If we have a look at his efficiency since September 1, 2025, he’s on leaderboards with the massive boys. Right here’s the xwOBA prime 10 over that span:

After I got down to write this text, colleague Dan Szymborski shared with me that he was beginning to remorse leaving Stewart out of his annual “Booms and Busts” piece, primarily as a result of his ZiPS-driven record additionally included McLain, and he didn’t wish to go together with three totally different pairs of teammates. (His record of Booms already featured two Royals and two Brewers.) Szymborski did provide a comparability between Stewart’s five-year projections coming into 2025 after which into ’26. They jibe with the up to date scouting reviews. Right here he’s coming into final 12 months:

And right here’s the place he stood this preseason:

“Statistically, earlier than 2025, Stewart regarded like a type of walk-heavy guys with little defensive worth who would fade out within the higher minors,” wrote Szymborski in a observe accompanying these projections. “However in 2025, he was extra aggressive on the plate and was completely plastering the balls, and not using a commensurate improve in outs. Within the area of a single 12 months, his 2026 OPS projection in ZiPS jumped up 100 factors, and ZiPS, like most projection techniques, tries to keep away from recency bias just like the plague.”

That’s a formidable soar. Whereas I wouldn’t anticipate Stewart to take care of such a lofty perch on the Statcast leaderboards given his lack of top-end uncooked energy, the Reds seem to have an actual middle-of-the-order drive for his or her lineup.