On Second Thought, Let’s Name Konnor Griffin Up After All

It feels extremely bizarre to say this however… it’s time to be a Pirates fan? As a result of Konnor Griffin is coming to the majors. He’ll make his main league debut in Pittsburgh’s dwelling opener on Friday.

Griffin was the Pirates’ first-round decide in 2024, ninth total, and rapidly emerged because the no. 1 total prospect in baseball. A group that’s been as unhealthy because the Pirates, for so long as they’ve been unhealthy, can have some familiarity with the ballyhooed prospect debut, however I’m undecided even they’ve seen something like this. I used to be as huge a Paul Skenes fan as anybody, and as pumped as I used to be to see him hit the majors, he’s surpassed even my expectations.

Effectively, now Skenes is within the majors to remain. So is Bubba Chandler. The Pirates flirted with spending some cash this previous offseason, and whereas a 3-3 file is the definition of unremarkable, the Pirates simply went on the street and performed the Mets and Reds — two of their erstwhile NL playoff rivals — to a draw. The Pirates may be type of OK. Life hasn’t been this good, genuinely, in additional than 10 years.

However Griffin’s debut is the principle occasion. As a result of as huge because the hype round Skenes was, the expectations for Griffin are even better.

You don’t must get far into Eric Longenhagen, Brendan Gawlowski, and James Fegan’s High 100 put up to know what Griffin’s deal is. The fourth, fifth, and sixth phrases within the capsule on Griffin are “freaky five-tool famous person.” He was the one prospect to get a 70-FV grade prior to now two years, and his part software grades are all 60s and 70s throughout the board, together with 70s for velocity and energy.

However Griffin can be a plus defensive shortstop who hit .333 throughout three minor league ranges final 12 months — his first in skilled baseball — with 65 stolen bases in 122 video games. That final half is tough to imagine, as a result of I’ve hassle wrapping my head across the thought of somebody that huge being that fast.

I interviewed Griffin on the mix two years in the past. It was a nice sufficient dialog; he mentioned he was studying to prepare dinner in preparation for transferring out of his mother and father’ home. I inspired him to buy a crockpot.

I carry this up as a result of whereas Griffin just isn’t the most important teenager I’ve ever seen up shut, that’s solely as a result of I coated soccer for the coed paper after I was in school. Griffin just isn’t as huge as an SEC offensive sort out, however his vastness is unsettling. He’s tall, he’s large, and each extremity, together with his neck, is replete with muscle. And he’s placed on 20 kilos of beef since I noticed him final.

Within the Successfully Wild predictions recreation, Meg superior the proposition that Griffin might produce extra WAR as a rookie than Mike Trout did in 2012 (10.1). (I took the below, not simply because Meg’s prediction was outlandish by design, however for causes I’ll get into later on this put up.) When it comes to all-around five-tool polish and athleticism, that’s the type of territory we’re speaking ourselves into. Definitely, Trout is likely one of the few latest ballplayers with the same bodily presence to Griffin’s, although even Trout just isn’t fairly this huge.

Pretty much as good as Griffin was in 2025, and as rapidly as he moved by way of the minors, I by no means actually thought-about an April main league debut as a critical chance. Even avid baseball followers can neglect how lengthy the developmental arc is for a draft decide, particularly a excessive schooler. Griffin might genuinely have been that promising a expertise and never damaged into the majors till 2027 or later.

He would be the tenth participant from his draft class to succeed in the majors, and the 2024 draft was notable for being extraordinarily heavy on school guys who have been anticipated to maneuver rapidly. JJ Wetherholt and Carson Benge solely beat Griffin to the majors by per week. In regular-season phrases, Trey Yesavage, an especially polished school pitcher who’s nearly three years older than Griffin, has solely three extra weeks of massive league expertise. Charlie Condon and Travis Bazzana are nonetheless within the minors.

It’s unthinkable that Griffin would get right here so rapidly. Assuming he’s within the lineup on Friday, he’ll turn out to be simply the 14th place participant since 1995 to make his main league debut earlier than he turns 20. The primary 13 gamers on that checklist embrace two Corridor of Famers and three nailed-on future first-ballot Corridor of Famers. 5 of the opposite eight gamers made at the least one All-Star group; 4 made at the least three. The median profession WAR amongst this group belongs to a different Pirates infield prospect, Aramis Ramirez, at 38.5.

Briefly, when you knew nothing about Griffin apart from the truth that he was set to succeed in the majors at 19, you may set Corridor of Very Good as a median final result. As a single biographical datum to venture from, being a teenage main leaguer is manner higher than being the no. 1 total decide.

However when you simply take a look at how these gamers carried out of their first season within the huge leagues, they have a tendency to have one other factor in frequent: They weren’t that good.

Solely 4 of those gamers have been value greater than a win of their debut 12 months, and all of them had important superior expertise by age 17. Soto, Reyes, and Renteria all signed as newbie free brokers at 16 or youthful. Renteria truly performed on the Marlins’ complicated at 15, and spent his age-16 marketing campaign in full-season A-ball. Griffin obtained drafted at 18 and two and a half months; by the point Harper was that age, he’d performed a full season of JUCO ball, together with a visit to the nationwide championship sequence, and he’d gone 12-for-35 within the Arizona Fall League.

Much more superior prospects struggled early. If there’s a comp for Griffin within the majors proper now, it’s Bobby Witt Jr., who had a .294 on-base proportion and posted 2.3 WAR when he obtained his first huge league motion at age 22. Witt was a star by 12 months 2 and a god by 12 months 3, however in 12 months 1 he seemed like a child.

For that cause, I used to be fairly comfy with the Pirates’ determination to go away Griffin off the Opening Day roster. He’d hit 4 dwelling runs 16 Grapefruit League video games, however he’d additionally batted .171 with 13 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances. That’s not unhealthy in any respect for a 19-year-old, however it additionally doesn’t appear like Griffin bashing within the portcullis and demanding to be taken north with the grown-ups. There’d be no hurt in letting him get an additional layer of seasoning in Triple-A.

Sure, Griffin went 7-for-16 with three doubles in his first style of motion at that stage, however 5 video games barely counts as getting taken out of the fridge, not to mention being seasoned. No baseball government since Department Rickey goes to have a look at that pattern and suppose Griffin has modified even slightly prior to now week.

The truth is, from a service time or PPI perspective, Griffin’s time within the minors makes no distinction in any respect. It’s nonetheless early sufficient within the 12 months for him to file a full 12 months’s service (assuming he’s within the huge leagues to remain), and he can nonetheless earn the Pirates a draft decide by performing nicely sufficient in award voting.

Griffin and the Pirates have reportedly made some progress on a contract extension. (At this level, any Triple-A shortstop who isn’t speaking to his group about an extension should be feeling horribly disregarded.) Buster Olney’s sources have the 2 sides inside tens of thousands and thousands of {dollars} of an settlement on an eight-year contract, with Griffin’s camp asking for one thing akin to the eight-year, $130 million deal Roman Anthony signed final August.

If that’s true, the Pirates ought to be leaping over the proverbial desk to take that provide, as a result of that worth is simply going to go up, and quickly. Particularly as a result of Griffin, by advantage of his youth, might hit free company after his age-25 season, assuming the free company timeline doesn’t change within the subsequent CBA. Nice gamers receives a commission nearly no matter age, however other than Shohei Ohtani, the real record-breaking contracts — Alex Rodriguez, Trout, Harper, Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — go to gamers who’re set to succeed in free company younger.

If Griffin extends now, each free agent 12 months he provides up might be value — with out an oz of exaggeration — $60 million or extra. If the Pirates can tie Griffin up for what Anthony obtained (his deal maxes out with a $30 million membership possibility for 2035), they need to do it earlier than he alters his thoughts.

The timing of Griffin’s call-up is so unusual, a looming contract extension is the one clarification that explains it to me. The Pirates will get a PPI decide if Griffin wins Rookie of the 12 months and information a full 12 months of service time, however provided that he hasn’t signed an extension first. If an extension is shut, or if there’s even a handshake deal in place, the Pirates would want to get Griffin onto the massive league roster earlier than they put pen to paper.

I’ve to this point centered on what Griffin will imply to the Pirates, and to baseball, within the broadest attainable context. Largely as a result of this isn’t a man you carry as much as play a pair days per week and hit lefties off the bench within the hopes of going from 82 wins to 83. It is a franchise participant; I’ve zoomed out as a result of I count on that when all is claimed and performed, it is possible for you to to see his affect from area.

However even when there are rising pains, it’s simple that he’ll assist the Pirates now.

The Pirates introduced in three huge (or big-ish) veteran bats this offseason: Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, and Ryan O’Hearn. All of these gamers have main defensive limitations, as do incumbent outfielders Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds.

In an ideal world, Reynolds could be a DH, Cruz could be enjoying proper subject, O’Hearn could be enjoying first base, Lowe could be enjoying at first or in an outfield nook, and shortstop Jared Triolo would most likely be enjoying both second or third base. (If he’s within the lineup in any respect; Triolo’s 86 profession wRC+ is in utility infielder territory.)

However Ozuna has to DH, and whereas Spencer Horwitz has been OK at first base, he was diabolical when the Blue Jays tried him at second. So O’Hearn is in proper subject, Cruz is in heart (usually with out his sun shades, to Skenes’ peril), Lowe is at second base, and Triolo is at quick.

The end result: FanGraphs editorial coverage prohibits me from describing the standard of Pittsburgh’s protection on this discussion board. I wished to make use of a portmanteau involving a well-liked family pet and what that pet will depart on the carpet if it isn’t housebroken; Matt mentioned I wasn’t allowed.

Griffin’s glove alone would enhance this group considerably. And even a conservative analysis of his offensive recreation — one which accounts for some rising pains as he adjusts to huge league pitching — would have Griffin as a middle-of-the-order bat on this lineup.

I don’t need to get too effusive about Griffin, as a result of gamers of his inexperience so hardly ever hit the bottom operating within the majors. On the identical time, that’s a tough urge to withstand, as a result of gamers this gifted so hardly ever get the chance to attempt.