In Bubba Chandler’s first begin of the 2026 season, he didn’t enable a single hit. Oh yeah, and he struck out greater than 30% of the batters he confronted. Spectacular! Simply, um, don’t look over on the stroll column. Oh, you probably did? Yeah, tremendous, he walked greater than 30% of the batters he confronted, too. Oh, and he allowed a run, and didn’t get out of the fifth inning. To know what Chandler was as much as, and what it’d imply for the remainder of his 12 months, we’ll need to dig a bit deeper.
Chandler leaned closely on his fastball to start out his 12 months, as many pitchers do of their first look of the season. He breezed by means of the primary inning with 11 straight fastballs, eclipsing 100 mph on the radar gun 4 instances and primarily daring the Reds to hit it. TJ Friedl waved feebly at 100 above the zone. Matt McLain did the identical. Chandler’s fastball is dynamite, notably when he’s finding it excessive. It explodes upwards, and a few offseason tweaks have it transferring much less arm facet than earlier than, making it even tougher to sq. up.
I might watch a montage of Chandler overpowering Reds hitters all day. Actually, you’ll be able to too:
You may see how tough it’s to trace Chandler’s fastball by watching the examine swings. The pitch that Jose Trevino, the final batter in that loop, supplied at was greater than a foot above the zone. The mix of velo, motion, and Chandler’s loping supply signifies that hitters have loads of hassle determining the place the ball goes.
That’s what Chandler seems like when he’s going good. When he received even or forward within the depend, his top-of-zone goal labored out pretty properly. He had his fair proportion of untamed misses excessive, however PitchingBot thought his command was acceptable total:
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Command grades don’t take into consideration how a lot Chandler’s fastball strikes, although. His total grade on these was stable:
These charts present why Chandler was so efficient after getting forward within the depend. He sprayed some fastballs excessive, however he hit one of the best location out there, the realm simply above the highest of the zone, sufficient to make up for it. Put hitters in disadvantageous counts, and you’ll dwell exterior the zone with out an excessive amount of penalty.
Sadly for Chandler, his fastball didn’t play so properly when he didn’t have batters over a barrel. Check out the place he situated on first pitches and in probably the most advantageous counts for hitters:
Out of the blue, leaving the ball excessive isn’t pretty much as good of a deal. The reds above the zone are much less purple. The blues are darker blue, even when they’re in the identical location. With out the specter of a strikeout getting bats off of shoulders, Chandler’s command wasn’t as much as snuff. He threw 32 fastballs in these conditions. Batters took 15 for balls and had an 80% contact charge after they did swing. That’s not going to pay the payments.
That persistent subject damage Chandler finally. Despite the fact that the Reds couldn’t determine him out, they did a reasonably good job of letting him fall behind within the depend. Within the third inning, Chandler missed excessive with fastballs in opposition to the primary two batters he confronted. He caught with fastballs – 11 out of the 12 choices he threw to these guys – and walked each. After an outfield collision scored a run and a bunt pop double play restored some sense of order, Chandler once more fell behind, couldn’t command his fastball, and walked McLain on 4 pitches.
This pattern repeated itself as Chandler continued to work. Within the fourth inning, he by no means fell behind within the depend en route to 2 strikeouts in a clear inning. Within the fifth, he received forward of Noelvi Marte 0-2 earlier than lacking on 4 straight balls. After an out, he walked the subsequent two batters on 10 pitches, all takes. With the bases loaded, that was it; Chandler hit the showers after 4 1/3 innings, 81 pitches, six strikeouts, and 6 walks.
Essentially the most notable statistic about Chandler’s first outing of the 12 months was the depend splits. After he received forward 0-1, he held batters to a wOBA of .070. When he fell behind 1-0, he allowed a .501 wOBA. That’s the distinction between – properly, I can’t actually offer you an actual comparability right here as a result of each of these wOBAs are outlandish, but it surely’s one thing just like the hole between the worst-hitting pitcher of all time and Babe Ruth.
Fastballs aren’t speculated to work the way in which Chandler’s does. They’re usually the choice pitchers select when behind within the depend; good for getting the ball within the zone, not so good for swing and miss. However Chandler’s is backwards; he misses loads of bats with it, and no less than for now, he can’t find it.
Usually talking, a fastball like that may be a motive to pitch backwards; secondaries early within the depend and, when behind, fastballs for strikeouts. However to try this, it’s a must to throw your secondaries loads, and Chandler didn’t appear to have a lot confidence in his on Tuesday. Out of his 81 pitches, 60 have been fastballs. That 74% utilization charge is the best of his eight large league begins by a mile. It’s tied for the best out of his 39 tracked minor league video games, and roughly 20 proportion factors greater than his common.
Chandler’s changeup isn’t the type of pitch you should utilize when behind within the depend. It’s a diving, bat-missing beast that he likes to tempt hitters with in two-strike counts. For ending protracted at-bats, it’s a marvel. Half of Chandler’s six strikeouts got here on changeups. However given how hardly ever he locates it within the strike zone, he properly stays away from utilizing it when batters aren’t in swing mode. He threw one whereas behind within the depend all day, and it missed low for a ball.
That leaves his two breaking balls, a slider and a show-me curveball that he breaks out solely in emergencies. You may assume {that a} slider could be the right pitch for the starter with a scattershot fastball and a hammer changeup. You’d be fallacious, no less than so long as that is the place he throws that slider:
That’s the problem with Chandler in a nutshell. He has a putaway fastball, a putaway changeup, and a slider that he couldn’t land within the zone in any respect in his first begin. How did he strike out six? As a result of when he’s forward, every thing he throws feels unfair. How did he stroll six? As a result of when hitters aren’t priced into swinging, he simply isn’t hitting the strike zone all that incessantly.
Clearly, this received’t be Chandler’s line all 12 months lengthy. I do assume that his answer to this drawback will go a great distance towards figuring out how his season goes. Final 12 months, he used his fastball extra conventionally, by which I imply he commanded it properly sufficient to get again into counts by laying it within the zone and daring hitters to do one thing. The brand new form and new velo – he threw 16 fastballs no less than 100 mph this sport, practically doubling his earlier single-game excessive of triple-digit heaters – have taken that possibility away, no less than for the second.
Will he preserve throwing his fastball at an enormous charge and financial institution on harnessing it higher? That looks like the probably final result to me, but it surely’s hardly the one one. Will he begin utilizing his slider within the zone? Hitters would most likely have a tough time swinging at it, notably contemplating {that a} too-high fastball and an in-zone slider look related out of the hand. Will he add a cutter or sinker, some bridge pitch that he feels he can recover from the plate? It’s an inexpensive concept.
No matter what transpires, I’m going to be watching with nice curiosity. Jared Jones was one among my favourite pitchers to observe earlier than he tore his UCL. Paul Skenes is Paul Skenes. Chandler’s nasty stuff has me dreaming of a spectacular rotation of GIF-worthy strikeout monsters. I’m rooting for him to determine it out – however I’ll additionally take pleasure in watching him attempt new options on the fly as he makes an attempt to work issues out. What an exquisite pitcher to observe as the brand new season begins.