The outcomes are more true than ever.
The Mariners didn’t document a single of their first two video games of 2026. No group had ever finished that in main league historical past. In truth, solely eight groups have ever gone back-to-back video games and not using a single, in keeping with MLB.com’s Sarah Langs.
Mariners Field Rating March 26-27
The reason being apparent. The Mariners didn’t hit a single as a result of they didn’t put the ball in play fairly often. And admittedly, how might they? Guardians pitchers threw lower than 40% of their pitches within the zone, and the Mariners had been compelled to put off them, drawing walks in 13.6% of their plate appearances throughout these two video games. When the Guardians did enter the zone, the Mariners struggled to make contact, putting out 35.8% of the time. Meaning solely 34 (50.8%) of their plate appearances ended with a batted ball. And since the Mariners make use of quite a lot of sluggers, six of these batted balls flew over the fence.
That left simply 28 balls in play that would have fallen for singles. Most had been grounders devoured up by top-of-the-line infields within the majors. The remaining had been fly balls and popups simply snagged in Seattle’s cool, small outfield (T-Cellular Park suppresses BABIP nearly in addition to it encourages strikeouts). Three balls did finally land in play for hits — they only occurred to go for additional bases.
Cal Raleigh collected the Mariners’ first single within the third inning of Saturday’s sport. It was his first ball in play of the season, after beginning the 12 months 0-for-8 with eight strikeouts and a stroll. That is truly a pleasant piece of irony that Raleigh, of all folks, can be the one to select up the primary single. He swings exhausting, up and to the pull aspect, and it’s uncommon to see him plop one into middle. Practically half his plate appearances in 2025 led to one of many three true outcomes. He even had a 12-game stretch in July and not using a single, double, or triple, registering a .000 BABIP throughout 54 plate appearances. Was this a hunch? Removed from it. He drew 9 walks and hit six homers to submit a 127 wRC+ over these two weeks. He’s grow to be one in every of a number of exemplars for the three true consequence strategy (and aesthetic):
You Aren’t a FanGraphs Member
It appears to be like such as you aren’t but a FanGraphs Member (or aren’t logged in). We aren’t mad, simply disillusioned.
We get it. You need to learn this text. However earlier than we allow you to get again to it, we might prefer to level out a couple of of the great explanation why you must grow to be a Member.
1. Advert Free viewing! We can’t bug you with this advert, or another.
2. Limitless articles! Non-Members solely get to learn 10 free articles a month. Members by no means get minimize off.
3. Darkish mode and Traditional mode!
4. Customized participant web page dashboards! Select the participant playing cards you need, within the order you need them.
5. One-click knowledge exports! Export our projections and leaderboards in your private initiatives.
6. Take away the photographs on the house web page! (Truthfully, this does not sound so nice to us, however some folks wished it, and we like to present our Members what they need.)
7. Much more Steamer projections! We have now handedness, percentile, and context impartial projections obtainable for Members solely.
8. Get FanGraphs Stroll-Off, a custom-made 12 months finish overview! Discover out precisely the way you used FanGraphs this 12 months, and the way that compares to different Members. Do not be a sufferer of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, solely for Members.
10. Assist assist FanGraphs and our whole workers! Our Members present us with important sources to enhance the location and ship new options!
We hope you will contemplate a Membership in the present day, for your self or as a present! And we understand this has been an awfully lengthy gross sales pitch, so we have additionally eliminated all the opposite adverts on this article. We did not need to overdo it.
Highest Price of Three True Outcomes (2025)
That’s an inventory any participant want to be on, however there is likely to be a bit extra competitors to prime it this 12 months. The speed of three true outcomes has exploded throughout the league within the early going this season, leaping from 33.7% in 2025 to 37.1% by the primary tranche of video games in 2026. If it had been to carry, that may be the very best mark ever. Nonetheless, we’re just one week into the season, and issues will change. How?
The primary cause three true outcomes are up is strikeouts are up. The league strikeout charge sits at 24.5%, which might be the very best mark for a full season. That is fascinating. The league’s strikeout charge appeared to plateau in 2019 after a long time of development. It even shrunk a couple of ticks in recent times, as batters countered growing velocity and trendy bullpen utilization with new efficiencies of their very own. But it surely appears they weren’t fairly ready for the leap in potential pitchers displayed within the first week:
League Strikeout Sign (2022-2026)
| Yr | Ok% | Whiff% | 4-Seamer Velo (mph) | RP% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.5% | 27.9% | 94.9 | 44.5% |
| 2025 | 22.2% | 25.3% | 94.5 | 41.6% |
| 2024 | 22.6% | 25.3% | 94.3 | 41.4% |
| 2023 | 22.8% | 25.8% | 94.2 | 42.2% |
| 2022 | 22.4% | 25.6% | 93.9 | 41.7% |
Now, the pattern is extraordinarily small, and it’s biased for quite a lot of causes. As an illustration, it contains knowledge from every group’s greatest beginning pitchers, and we’ll see pitcher efficiency go down as attrition mounts and groups flip to lesser choices. This pattern additionally contains extra relievers than it should come July, as groups are reluctant to let their beginning pitchers go deep into video games this early within the season. We haven’t seen the form these metrics will soak up 2026.
For instance this, I discovered the seven-day rolling common for all these metrics throughout the pitch-tracking period utilizing the pitch-level knowledge obtainable from Baseball Savant. Velocity tends to spike instantly, drop, after which slowly climb all through the summer time.
The identical is true of whiffs, though the rise doesn’t occur till the very finish of the season, as groups start managing their bullpens prefer it’s the playoffs:
I don’t count on the present strikeout setting to carry all 12 months, and I count on batters to slowly catch up, as they at all times do. That mentioned, what we’ve seen thus far in 2026 continues to be fairly excessive. The league’s four-seamer velocity of 94.9 mph is the highest-ever mark over any seven-day stretch. The league’s whiff charge of 27.9% is tied with the primary week of 2025 for the very best ever over any seven-day stretch. The league’s strikeout charge shouldn’t be fairly the very best ever, but it surely’s very shut. These figures aren’t outliers by any means and are solely notable to the thousandths-place decimal, however there’s not less than a little bit of early sign that we haven’t discovered the ceiling on all this.
The primary week of 2026 additionally represents the very best seven-day stroll charge since 2009 at 9.8%. Now, it’s not that bizarre to see whiffs and velocity trending up, as a result of they’ve been trending up for some time now. However walks? Walks aren’t trending. They’ve been fairly danged constant on the plus-or-minus 8% for years and years. I feel we’re more likely to see this charge self-correct over the subsequent few weeks:
What’s fascinating, nevertheless, is simply how poor pitchers’ goal has been up to now. Greater than a 3rd of pitches have been thrown within the chase and waste areas — these areas up to now out of the zone they’re hardly ever referred to as strikes (0.1% in 2025). This could characterize a large improve over another 12 months within the pitch-tracking period. I can’t do the identical weekly evaluation with zone charges, and my assumption is that this isn’t unprecedented in small samples. However the historic charge of walks will proceed till pitchers hone in, doubtless before later.
The ultimate reality, after all, is residence runs. In contrast to the stats above, residence runs begin low and develop all through the season because the climate will get heat and the ball carries extra:
I don’t see something notable, large or small, within the charge of plate appearances ending in a house run (2.8%), nor the speed of fly balls turning into residence runs. I additionally don’t see proof that the balls are juiced this 12 months (although my solely qualification to make that assertion is my potential to seek out the drag dashboard on Baseball Savant).
That mentioned, the league’s contact profile within the first week is fascinating. Whereas batters have proven considerably extra swing-and-miss, the contact they do make is extremely more likely to be within the air and to the pull aspect. Not solely that, however the barrel charge on these pulled flies is at an all-time excessive. I’m unsure whether or not that can result in extra homers because the season goes on — these charges have trended up for years, whereas residence run charges haven’t. However I feel this means batters are persevering with to alter their strategy, aiming for the shallowest a part of the park and away from the traditionally glorious defenders in middle subject.
OK, to recap: 1) Strikeouts are up, and although they’ll most likely come down, the pattern continues to be considerably notable; 2) walks are method up, however will most likely come down, assuming pitchers can discover the zone; and three) homers are regular, even when batters appear to be making an attempt very exhausting to hit them. The primary week of 2026 represents the very best charge of plate appearances ending in a 3 true consequence since… the ultimate week of 2025. We’re, roughly, right here:
The Mariners have hit many singles since these first two video games. It was a weird feat made extra doubtless by the present state of the majors: Guardians pitchers prevented the zone, Mariners hitters swung for the fences, and good defenders took what remained. But it surely needs to be clear that, even in a contemporary setting, such an occasion is much from the norm. There are nonetheless loads of singles in baseball, nonetheless loads of motion. The game shouldn’t be dying. In truth, wanting on the listing above of gamers with probably the most three true outcomes, I type of suppose we like this fashion of play.