Basically, the Pirates’ first collection of the yr may’ve gone higher. What everybody’s going to recollect from this previous weekend is the worst begin of Paul Skenes’ profession — most likely of his complete life. But it surely may’ve been worse. Successful one in all three at Citi Area towards the Mets might be going to finish up trying like even par for one of many more durable assignments within the Nationwide League, particularly with a type of losses coming in additional innings.
Brandon Lowe hit three house runs. Even Skenes’ terrible opening inning was solely made potential by some horrendous protection and ridiculous batted-ball luck. And Carmen Mlodzinski struck out the aspect towards the highest of the Mets’ order on Sunday. Twice.
Each offseason, in the end, I simply flat out run out of issues to put in writing about. However as a result of the massive wheels of content material hold spinning, and since mentioned wheels will run me over if I don’t hold shifting, generally I’ve to dig deep for article fodder. That second got here on February 3 this yr, after I wrote about Mlodzinski, a back-end-starter-turned-low-leverage-reliever on a nasty, small-market crew.
Mlodzinski had been horrible early final season as a starter, and acquired demoted to Triple-A. On the time, he had a slider-sweeper breaking ball mixture that wasn’t superb to start with and spent method an excessive amount of time within the zone. His low-three-quarters arm angle and fastball combo of four-seamers and sinkers meant every thing he threw got here with a side-to-side motion profile of some type or different. And people secondary pitches have been getting shelled.
When Mlodzinski got here again, he left his outdated breaking balls in Indianapolis and picked up a brand new curveball on the best way again. It modified every thing. He posted a 1.63 ERA and a pair of.14 FIP in his remaining 23 appearances of 2025, and opponents posted a wOBA of simply .165 towards his curve. It regarded just like the Pirates had discovered one thing fairly worthwhile: A high-end setup man for Dennis Santana, able to stretching out to 6 outs if needed. That’s a win — let’s not get grasping.
So when the information got here that the Pirates have been returning Mlodzinski to the rotation, I feared a relapse. Certainly, his first begin wasn’t excellent; he lasted solely 4 1/3 innings, and allowed two runs and 6 hits. He dominated the Mets’ high three the primary two occasions via the order, however any crowing about that accomplishment have to be dampened by what occurred the third time he confronted them.
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Even so, Mlodzinski struck out eight batters with out strolling anybody. That’s a giant deal for a pitcher whose earlier profession excessive was six. Particularly as a result of six of these eight strikeouts got here towards Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, and Bo Bichette. There are dozens of how to extol the virtues of that trio. Right here’s mine: This yr, the Mets are paying these three hitters a hair beneath $120 million, which is a few $20 million greater than the Pirates have ever spent on a 40-man roster over the course of a season. This was a mismatch.
Mlodzinski solely acquired eight whiffs all recreation, however six of them got here with two strikes to Lindor, Soto, and Bichette.
It helped that Mlodzinski labored forward within the depend; he threw strike one in 4 of these six at-bats. Within the different two, he fell behind 1-0, however instantly acquired again forward within the depend, 1-2. Pitchers who get forward within the depend clearly have a better job.
The primary time via, Mlodzinski tried and did not back-door a curveball after which a splitter to Lindor, who spat on each. After working the depend full with pitches on the outer half, Mlodzinski went with a back-foot curveball that tied Lindor in knots.
The second time via, Lindor knew to search for the hammer. He took it for ball one, after which once more as Mlodzinski tried to get him to chase a 2-2 breaking ball. So Mlodzinski got here again with a four-seamer up within the zone, and Lindor swung straight via it.
I really like Lindor’s apparent annoyance right here. He knew he’d been bamboozled. A yr in the past, Mlodzinski didn’t have a breaking ball with the type of downward motion required to drop it beneath Lindor’s bat, the best way he did within the first inning. Including the curveball not solely acquired that swing and miss, it arrange the strikeout on the four-seamer afterward.
Again in February, I admitted that I didn’t actually see the purpose of Mlodzinski’s sinker. I perceive it higher now. He threw it to Bichette in a 1-0 depend within the first inning, and back-doored it over the black for an inexpensive referred to as strike.
It is a area of interest reference, however for about 4 months in 2011, Vance Worley was higher at back-dooring a sinker than any pitcher who ever lived. He’d get two strikes on a man, line up the two-seamer, and begin strolling off the mound earlier than the ball even acquired to the plate. This was a Vance Worley-ass sinker.
Bichette, being among the best contact hitters within the league, filed that pitch away in his databanks. And with two strikes in his subsequent at-bat, he noticed a fastball on the surface nook and ready to flip it down the suitable discipline line for a double.
Oh, darn, it’s the four-seamer, not the sinker. I suppose that’s why you throw each of these pitches.
What of Soto, then? Properly, the curveball may’ve fooled Lindor, however Soto had it dialed in from the primary pitch. In his first two at-bats towards Mlodzinski, Soto noticed 4 curveballs low and out of the zone and didn’t swing at any of them. I suppose he’s good at choosing up spin or one thing. Splitters, nevertheless, don’t spin, or not less than they don’t spin as a lot. And Mlodzinski acquired Soto to swing over one with two strikes within the first, and once more within the third.
Mlodzinski was rather less exact together with his fastball command to the hitters decrease within the Mets lineup. Brett Baty and Luis Robert Jr. may not be nearly as good because the hitters in entrance of them, however they’re nonetheless able to lining a fastball into the outfield.
And when the highest of the Mets order got here up a 3rd time, Mlodzinski wasn’t burying his secondary pitches, and the celebrities have been prepared for them. A primary-pitch splitter to Lindor caught the underside of the zone, and he lanced it to right-center for a triple.
That left Mlodzinski to face Soto, who lastly bit at a curveball that simply barely missed the zone low and in.
The following curveball caught sufficient of the zone for Soto to make contact, and his single to proper scored Lindor and chased Mlodzinski.
Given what we noticed from Pittsburgh’s outfield protection final week, I can’t assist however discover that Ryan O’Hearn overran Lindor’s triple and was gradual to get to Soto’s single. Which isn’t his fault — he’s a primary baseman, and the Pirates selected to dwell and die by their iron-mitted protection — however I ponder if Mlodzinski may’ve escaped the fifth inning if his proper fielder didn’t run like a menhir. Oh properly.
There’s loads for Mlodzinski to enhance on from his first begin of 2026. Regardless of the strikeout totals, his stuff wasn’t overpowering, and when his location wasn’t excellent he acquired hit. Whether or not that’s a stamina concern or proof that he wants one other weapon, I don’t know.
But it surely’s laborious to not be inspired by this spectacular season debut. Possibly Mlodzinski’s acquired the makings of a strong starter in any case.