There’s paint on the sphere, bunting on the metal, and hoopla in our feels. It’s Opening Day little question. Nicely, the third one, at the very least.
Probably the most iconic trapping of Opening Day is the fleet of wonderful beginning pitchers who take the mound. Every group sends their greatest, or at the very least, their healthiest. For some, it’s the reigning Cy Younger winner. For others, it’s a precocious prospect. These starters, true to their title, carry the burden of the brand new season of their shoulder.
Few carry a burden better than Luis Severino’s.
The Athletics are on the cusp. They rank twentieth in FanGraphs Depth Charts projected WAR and enter Opening Day with a few 16% likelihood of constructing the postseason, per our playoff odds. It appears unlikely that that is their 12 months, however they’re certainly younger and gifted and rising. It wouldn’t be too stunning in the event that they stayed within the playoff image properly into September.
In the event that they do, it’ll be due to their lineup. It’s good. They completed tenth by wRC+ final 12 months and have returned principally the identical group. In his rookie season, Nick Kurtz made a case for being the sport’s subsequent nice slugger. Shea Langeliers completed with the second-highest wRC+ by a catcher at 131. Brent Rooker notched his third straight 30-plus dwelling run season. Jacob Wilson and Tyler Soderstrom every performed properly sufficient to earn early-career extensions, and Lawrence Butler acquired one the 12 months earlier than.
Our Depth Charts venture the A’s batters 14th total by WAR, however they’re lower than a win from breaching the highest 10, proper in that subsequent tier behind the Dodgers and the handful of really nice lineups all through baseball. It’s a playoff-worthy group.
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The difficulty? The A’s are lopsided:
Their pitching is dangerous. They completed final 12 months within the backside 5 by WAR, and we venture them no higher in 2026: Their starters ranked twenty fourth in our positional energy rankings, whereas their bullpen ranked twenty sixth. I don’t know that I’d name them horrible — they’re nonetheless a transparent rung or two above the Rockies — however there’s not a lot there to differentiate them.
To be truthful, it’s tough to venture teams of pitchers over a season, as accidents and small samples spur attrition. The underside of the A’s employees doesn’t look a lot totally different than the underside of many staffs within the mushy center of our projections. I might completely purchase Luis Morales having a breakout season, identical to I might purchase Jeffrey Springs and Aaron Civale being respectable backend guys. And, you realize, bullpens are bizarre, typically in ways in which works in your favor! Nonetheless, there isn’t somebody who’s an apparent candidate to publish above-average worth and carry this group to that subsequent, bare-minimum stage.
Besides possibly Severino. He’s carried out it earlier than.
Severino was as soon as an enormous deal, albeit practically a decade in the past. He was a extremely touted prospect, and a top-five pitcher by WAR in 2017 and 2018. He had the easy, traditional arsenal of a man with huge time stuff: a 98-mph four-seam fastball, a wipeout slider, and a changeup simply to maintain you sincere. No person threw more durable, and few struck out extra batters. In 2018, he was solely 24.
Then, as this stuff go, he acquired damage. Severino missed nearly all of 2019 with a shoulder damage. Then he missed all of 2020 and most of 2021 with Tommy John surgical procedure. He pitched fairly properly for half a season in 2022 earlier than being sidelined with a lat pressure, then pitched fairly poorly for a half a season the next 12 months whereas coping with the lat pressure and an indirect pressure. He threw simply 209.1 innings over 5 years.
Severino signed a prove-it take care of the Mets earlier than the 2024 season, and he proved to be… properly, adequate to signal a three-year take care of the A’s that December. It was a stunning transfer as a result of the A’s are notoriously stingy. But it surely was additionally type of an ideal transfer as a result of the A’s wanted somebody who might probably be a frontline starter to guide the employees. And there simply aren’t many pitchers accessible within the A’s worth vary who’ve confirmed able to posting five-win seasons, particularly ones keen to play in a minor league ballpark.
That minor league ballpark, in fact, was an enormous a part of Severino’s first season in Sacramento. He actually didn’t like pitching there, and he instructed The Athletic as a lot in June.
“It’s not the identical environment. We don’t have lots of followers. Our clubhouse is in left subject. So, after we play day video games, we’ve got to only be within the solar. There’s no air con there, too. It’s actually powerful.”
Now, I’m not going to name Severino a liar. I’m positive he really didn’t like pitching in Sacramento. When he provided that quote, he had a 6.79 ERA in 10 begins at dwelling and a 3.04 ERA in eight begins on the highway. That’s an enormous break up! However Severino additionally had a 4.36 FIP at dwelling and a 4.34 FIP on the highway over the identical stretch — his elementary capability wasn’t a lot totally different. Because the season progressed, so did he; he posted a 4.26 ERA and 4.28 FIP in 5 begins at dwelling from July onward, in comparison with a 3.00 ERA and three.20 FIP on the highway. I’m keen to chalk up a lot of Severino’s early-season dwelling efficiency to poor luck: His .342 BABIP and 58.2% LOB fee have been backside 5 amongst starters via June. That appeared to self-correct because the season wore on.
In different phrases, sure, Severino was usually worse at dwelling, and we would anticipate him and the remainder of the Athletics’ employees to be worse whereas working in opposition to what ended up being the fifth-highest park issue within the majors final 12 months. It’s a minor league park, it’s very heat, and the wind blows out — it isn’t simple to pitch there. However there’s possibly a bent to magnify the extremity of Sutter Well being Park. What we noticed in 2025 was nowhere near Coors Subject, and I believe I’d classify it as being extra of a nuisance, slightly than a barrier to a season of high quality pitching.
No, Severino’s merely respectable efficiency in 2025 was his personal doing. He posted the bottom strikeout (17.6%) and whiff (18.3%) charges of his profession. It’s a part of a years-long downward pattern in both class.
Why?
An important pitcher who declines after damage is usually coping with some type of velocity dip. That’s type of the case with Severino, but in addition not likely. Once more, he was as soon as the hardest-throwing beginning pitcher within the recreation, averaging 97.6 mph on his four-seam fastball in 2018. He was all the way down to 96.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2025. That’s a significant distinction, however he nonetheless boasted one of many 15 quickest four-seamers in baseball final 12 months. In actual fact, Severino’s whiff fee on the pitch jumped from 20.2% in 2018 to 21.9% in 2025 (although nonetheless shy of his 24.0% mark from 2017).
However he isn’t simply throwing four-seamers anymore:
Severino now has a recent arsenal. He nonetheless throws lots of fastballs, however a few of them are actually sinkers to righties and cutters to lefties. These are usually a bit slower. If we take a look at his common velocity on all fastballs, he was really all the way down to 95.4 mph, or 2.4 mph decrease than 2018; his whole fastball whiff fee final 12 months was simply 16.7%. Severino additionally ditched his sharp, biting slider in favor of a slower, looping sweeper. The pitch produced a mere 22.8% whiff fee in 2025. It’s nonetheless a very good pitch total, and it does appear to provide poor contact (specifically popups and weak fly balls). But it surely’s simply not “2018 Luis Severino 37.6% whiff fee” good.
Now, possibly these tradeoffs are value it. It’s not solely truthful to match Severino in 2025 to himself from seven years in the past. It’s attainable that persevering with to throw the identical three-pitch combine wouldn’t have the identical impact immediately because it did when he had that additional, tip-top gear. However the sum whole of those adjustments is a slower, extra contact-oriented strategy. Severino final 12 months struggled to get forward in counts and end off batters.
If that is who he’s going ahead, that’s high quality. He stays an average-ish pitcher value giving 30 begins a season to in nearly any rotation. Nonetheless, I can’t assist however really feel there’s room for one thing extra. He throws onerous, he has good command, and he’s nonetheless Luis Severino. He seemed electrical for the Dominican Republic on the World Baseball Traditional, pumping upper-90s fastballs and dominating the fearsome Crew USA lineup.
What’s going to we get in 2026? Nicely, we’re about to seek out out. Severino will start his eleventh season within the majors Friday at age 32. The chances of him posting one other ace-level season are rising longer, however he wouldn’t be the primary and even essentially the most unlikely pitcher to have a late-career resurgence. If he can discover that subsequent stage once more, the A’s are positive to comply with. Such is the wonder — and burden — of Opening Day.