Girls´s Tremendous League predictions: Can Man Metropolis edge nearer to WSL title with derby win over Man Utd?

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One other week, one other full fixture listing from the Girls’s Tremendous League, with the most recent spherical of matches providing up three derbies to whet the urge for food.

The Manchester derby headlines Saturday’s motion, with league leaders Manchester Metropolis figuring out a win over Manchester United will prolong their lead on the high to 11 factors.

Everton face Liverpool within the Merseyside derby within the opening recreation of MD19, whereas a conflict between North London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham continues to spice issues up.

Defending champions Chelsea journey to Aston Villa, whereas West Ham make the brief journey throughout the capital to tackle a London Metropolis Lionesses aspect determined for a victory.

Leicester Metropolis know time is working out of their bid for survival, and they are going to be hoping to kickstart an awesome escape in opposition to Brighton, who’re simply 9 factors above them.

However who will the winners and losers be? The Opta supercomputer has had its say on what might be an enormous weekend at each ends of the desk.

EVERTON V LIVERPOOL

A day of derbies kicks off at Goodison Park, with Everton taking up Merseyside rivals Liverpool as each groups look to safe a return to successful methods within the WSL.

The Toffees had been crushed 2-1 by Manchester United of their final league outing, whereas Liverpool had been held to a goalless draw by Brighton, and the Opta supercomputer has predicted the most recent conflict between these two rivals to go in favour of the hosts.

Everton gained 44.4% of our 10,000 pre-match simulations, in comparison with Liverpool’s 28.7% win chance. A draw is predicted to happen in 26.8% of eventualities.

The actual fact Scott Phelan’s aspect are tagged as favourites maybe owes to their spectacular type on this fixture. Everton have gained extra WSL video games in opposition to Liverpool than every other group (10) and the Toffees are unbeaten in every of their final eight league conferences with the Reds (W6 D2), since a 3-1 loss in Could 2019.

As well as, Everton have gained their final two WSL dwelling matches, whereas they’ve solely as soon as beforehand recorded three successive victories on dwelling soil within the competitors – doing so in July 2011 (a run that included a 1-0 win over Liverpool).

Liverpool, although, defeated Everton 2-1 in the latest encounter between these two sides within the Girls’s FA Cup fifth spherical final month, however they haven’t gained back-to-back matches in opposition to their neighbours since a run of 4 wins from July 2015 to September 2017.

MANCHESTER UNITED V MANCHESTER CITY

The standout fixture within the WSL this weekend sees second-placed Manchester United welcome rivals and league leaders Manchester Metropolis to Outdated Trafford.

Andree Jeglertz’s aspect haven’t performed since their 5-2 thrashing of Tottenham of their final league fixture, whereas the Pink Devils had been concerned in Champions League motion in midweek, shedding the primary leg of their quarter-final tie 3-2 to Bayern Munich.

The Residents would be the more energizing of the 2 sides, and they’re going to hope their star striker performs on the most important stage this weekend.

Khadija Shaw has scored 80 league targets for Man Metropolis, the joint-most one participant has for a single membership within the WSL, alongside Vivianne Miedema for Arsenal.

The Jamaican is 2 targets away from reaching 20 for the season, which might make her the primary participant in Girls’s Tremendous League historical past to web 20+ targets in three completely different campaigns (beforehand 21 in 2023-24 and 20 in 2022-23).

This tussle has been a one-sided affair of late. United have gained solely two of their 12 WSL conferences with Metropolis (D4 L6), successful 2-1 at dwelling in Could 2023 and 4-2 away from dwelling in January 2025.

The Residents emerged 3-0 victors within the reverse fixture again in November, scoring all three targets within the first half, they usually may full a WSL double over the Pink Devils for the second time, after the 2023-24 marketing campaign.

However Marc Skinner’s hosts will definitely have their say. Solely Arsenal (11) are on an extended run with out defeat within the WSL than United, who’re unbeaten in 9 matches (W6 D3) since that 3-0 loss to Metropolis in November.

Solely twice earlier than have the Pink Devils had a run of 10+ video games with out defeat within the competitors, managing 14 in December 2020 and 13 in November 2023.

And you may anticipate loads of goalmouth motion, given solely Metropolis (52) have scored extra targets within the 2025-26 WSL than United (37). The Pink Devils can even be seeking to web a number of targets in six consecutive dwelling matches for the primary time within the WSL.

The Opta supercomputer has predicted Metropolis to increase their eight-point lead on the summit with a win, as this weekend’s guests got here out on high in 41.9% of the data-led simulations, whereas United had been assigned a 32.6% likelihood of taking all three factors.

A Metropolis win would, in fact, assure that they end above their neighbours and go away Chelsea and Arsenal – the latter of whom have video games in hand – as the one groups mathematically able to stopping their title procession.

ARSENAL V TOTTENHAM

One other group concerned in Champions League motion in midweek was Arsenal, who return to the Emirates Stadium on Saturday to tackle Tottenham within the North London derby.

The European champions beat Chelsea 3-1 within the first leg of their quarter-final tie, and they’re backed to construct on that victory in opposition to their arch-rivals.

Arsenal are assigned a 78.7% win chance in comparison with Tottenham’s 8.4% likelihood of victory, with the probability of the spoils being shared rated at simply 12.9%.

Renee Slegers’ aspect being the overwhelming favourites on this fixture is maybe right down to their dominance over Spurs. Arsenal have gained 9 of their 12 WSL video games in opposition to Tottenham (D2 L1), scoring 33 targets in North London derbies whereas conceding simply 4.

Arsenal are additionally averaging probably the most factors per recreation within the WSL in 2026, successful 4 of 5 video games (2.6 – D1). Solely in 2017 (first 9), 2015 (first six) and 2012 (all 14) have the Gunners had a greater unbeaten begin to a calendar 12 months.

However this weekend’s guests will fancy their probabilities of getting one over their rivals, notably on the highway. No group has scored extra away targets within the WSL this season than Tottenham (20), although solely West Ham (21) have conceded extra away targets than Spurs (20).

Nevertheless, Spurs have misplaced 4 of their final six WSL video games (W2), extra defeats than throughout their first 12 league matches underneath Martin Ho this season (W7 D2 L3).

Spurs’ Bethany England may make her two hundredth look within the division, turning into the seventh participant to achieve that milestone. The striker has not scored in any of her final 5 North London derbies, however has scored the joint-most London derby targets in WSL historical past (18– degree with Beth Mead).

WEST HAM V LONDON CITY LIONESSES

West Ham are three factors above the relegation zone heading into their conflict with the London Metropolis Lionesses, they usually could also be fearing the worst in opposition to Eder Maestre’s aspect.

That’s as a result of solely Yeovil City (P6 W0) have a worse win charge in WSL video games in opposition to newly promoted opposition than West Ham (38% – P16 W6 D3 L7), who had been crushed 1-0 by London Metropolis earlier this season.

London Metropolis have additionally gained three away league video games this season – although all have come outdoors the capital (Everton, Aston Villa, Brighton). West Ham in 2018-19 (5) are the one newly promoted group to win extra instances on the highway in a WSL marketing campaign.

Nevertheless, solely Leicester Metropolis (six) are presently on an extended winless run within the WSL than London Metropolis (4 – D1 L3) and the Foxes (0) and Brighton (4) are the one groups to win fewer factors than the Lionesses in 2026 (5 – W1 D2 L4).

West Ham have additionally misplaced every of their seven London derbies within the WSL this season, they usually may equal the longest shedding streak in such derbies within the competitors’s historical past, set by Tottenham in March 2023 and Crystal Palace in April 2025 (each eight).

And the Opta supercomputer struggles to separate these two groups, making West Ham the slight favourites with a win chance of 37.7% to London Metropolis’s 35.9% likelihood of victory. A draw occurred in 26.4% of eventualities.

CHELSEA V ASTON VILLA

After their defeat to Arsenal in Europe, Chelsea will look to consolidate third place in opposition to Aston Villa on Sunday, however they’ve usually struggled after Champions League motion.

Certainly, Chelsea have did not win three of their 5 WSL video games this season when having performed a midweek recreation in the identical week (W2 D2 L1). Final season, the Blues gained seven of their 9 league matches after a midweek outing (D2).

Sonia Bompastor’s aspect have seen their title defence stutter this season, averaging simply 2.06 factors per recreation within the league, which is Chelsea’s worst charge in a WSL marketing campaign since 2014 (1.86). The Blues have dropped factors in seven of their 18 video games this season (W11 D4 L3), their most since 2018-19 (D6 L2).

Chelsea will, nonetheless, be assured of returning to successful methods in opposition to Villa, who discover themselves in eighth after their comeback win in opposition to Leicester.

The Blues have gained all 11 of their WSL conferences with Villa by an mixture rating of 28-2. Just one fixture has been performed extra instances within the competitors with one aspect successful each time (Chelsea vs Tottenham – 13 instances).

Villa have additionally by no means taken the lead in opposition to Chelsea within the WSL, probably the most video games one aspect has performed in opposition to one other with out main at the least as soon as. The Villans have trailed at half-time in three of their 5 WSL away matches versus the Blues.

However they are going to be hoping Kirsty Hanson can change that. Solely Metropolis’s Shaw (18) has scored extra English top-flight targets than Villa’s quantity 20 (10) this season.

She is simply the second Scottish participant to achieve double figures in a WSL marketing campaign, after Kim Little in 2012 (11).

Nevertheless, even with Hanson of their ranks, the Opta supercomputer has sided with Chelsea to win this fixture. The Blues are handed a win chance of 84.2%, the very best of any group on MD19, whereas Villa are given a 5.8% likelihood of taking all three factors.

LEICESTER CITY V BRIGHTON

The weekend’s motion concludes on the King Energy Stadium, with backside membership Leicester Metropolis hoping to enhance their survival hopes with a optimistic outcome at dwelling to Brighton.

Nevertheless, the percentages are firmly stacked in opposition to them by way of staying within the division. The Opta supercomputer has predicted Leicester to be relegated in 81.5% of its season simulations, and they aren’t favoured for a outcome right here, both.

After a late defeat to Aston Villa final trip, Leicester are assigned a 34.1% likelihood of victory in opposition to Brighton, who’re fancied in 40.1% of Opta’s pre-match simulations.

Having gained simply one in every of their first 5 WSL conferences with Leicester (D1 L3), Brighton have since gained three of their final 4 encounters with the Foxes within the competitors (L1).

The Seagulls are, nonetheless, winless of their earlier 4 matches within the WSL (D1 L3). They final endured an extended run and not using a win within the division between December 2024 and March 2025 (seven).

However they arrive up in opposition to a Leicester aspect struggling for type. The Foxes have misplaced every of their final six WSL video games, since a 1-0 dwelling win over London Metropolis final December. Certainly, it’s their longest shedding streak within the competitors since a run of 10 defeats between Could and December 2022.





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