Excuse Me?! Our Daring Predictions for the 2026 Season

Yearly for Opening Day, I ask the FanGraphs workers to foretell the season’s award winners, playoff discipline, and eventual World Collection Champion. These predictions are usually closely influenced by our playoff odds, projections, and prospect rankings, and whereas I respect the intuition to lean on information to make our guesses extra educated, the outcomes can really feel just a little chalky at instances. That’s why I’ve beginning asking our writers to make one other prediction — a daring prediction. One which may be just a little spicy, or maybe just a little foolish. A prediction that eschews the plain, however continues to be grounded in actuality, even when solely by one foot. Nineteen of our writers throughout FanGraphs and RotoGraphs answered the bell, together with me. Will any of those predictions show to be appropriate? Who is aware of! Let’s watch 2,430 video games and discover out. – Meg Rowley

We’ll See a Entrance Workplace Playing Scandal

I notice this isn’t probably the most enjoyable prediction you’re going to learn right here, however this simply form of strikes me as subsequent. We’ve seen coach scandals, participant scandals, and interpreter scandals. Nicely, entrance places of work characteristic loads of hyper-competitive individuals, lots of whom are consultants within the type of threat evaluation concerned in playing, and I don’t see any explicit cause that they’d be resistant to a illness that has contaminated so many different components of baseball over the previous few years. I feel it’s extra doubtless that the subsequent scandal we see includes extra minor league gamers, however we’re presupposed to go daring right here. It might be more durable for a entrance workplace member to get caught. They’re not topic to the identical public scrutiny that gamers are, and so they can’t have an effect on the result of a sport as straight. They’d in all probability need to screw up in an even bigger manner. However it definitely appears potential.  – Davy Andrews

Somebody Will Floor Right into a Document Variety of Double Performs

The one-season report for double performs grounded into is 36, set by Jim Rice in 1984. I admit I’m barely obsessive about this quantity; I write about it semi-frequently, most not too long ago within the context of Junior Caminero again in July. Caminero had hit into 22 double performs in his first 333 plate appearances; his record-bothering tempo cooled off just a little, however he nonetheless ended with 31 GIDPs, the best single-season complete in 11 years.

Caminero is gradual, right-handed, hits in the midst of the order, and hits the ball on the bottom arduous and continuously. That’s a ripe mixture, a petri dish for twin killings. And he’s not alone. Carlos Correa hit into 30 double performs in 2023; final 12 months, along with Caminero, Pete Alonso, Jose Altuve, and Iván Herrera all broke 20. Herrera did it in simply 107 video games; he and his Twenty third-percentile dash velocity are slated to get extra time at DH this 12 months.

The truth that this report has stood for greater than 40 years tells you the way large a quantity 36 is. However a participant can hit into a number of double performs in a single sport if the scenario is true. Batters are hitting the ball more durable, as shift-restricted infields at all times hold at the least one participant in shouting distance of second base. This report goes to fall ultimately; it’d as nicely occur now. – Michael Baumann

Chandler Simpson Will Hit an Over-the-Fence Dwelling Run

Earlier than Eddie Gaedel took his one plate look with the St. Louis Browns on August 19, 1951, crew proprietor Invoice Veeck reportedly informed Gaedel that he had a sniper on the stadium roof to take him out if he swung the bat. I don’t assume the Rays have such a harsh association with Chandler Simpson hitting fly balls, however with a bat so punchless it breaks the underside of the 20-80 scale for uncooked energy, swinging for the fences ought to by no means be a part of his sport.

As such, the large fly gained’t come at a important second. It gained’t be to steer off a sport; it gained’t be to tie one or take the lead; and it definitely gained’t be to stroll one off. However are the Rays going to cease Simpson from taking a giant hack after they’re up or down by a bunch of runs, dealing with a place participant? With Tropicana Area’s dimensions, all it could take is Simpson hooking one proper down the road towards a fastball coming in at batting follow velocity. The correct discipline foul pole on the Trop is 325 toes away, a distance he matched or exceeded on eight batted balls final 12 months. Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium are pleasant street parks for this feat, too. – Jon Becker

Andrew Benintendi Will Hit 30-Plus Dwelling Runs

For a lot of hitters, predicting 30 dwelling runs wouldn’t be so daring. Even those that’ve but to achieve that mark may believably make a tweak right here or there to push themselves past that good, spherical quantity. However getting into his eleventh season, almost 5,000 plate appearances into his profession, Andrew Benintendi has by no means hit greater than 20 dwelling runs in a season. A 50% improve on a well-established restrict appears reasonably daring.

Benintendi first reached 20 dwelling runs again in 2017, his first full large league season. He hit fewer the subsequent 12 months however was in any other case glorious, justifying his standing as a former top-five total prospect with a 4.4-WAR marketing campaign. Then his profession went backwards. His energy numbers dropped, his protection disappeared, and he bounced from crew to crew earlier than signing with the White Sox in 2023. His numbers tanked additional, posting an 88 wRC+ with simply 5 homers in his first 12 months on the South Aspect.

Then in 2024, Benintendi doubled his barrel price, swatting 20 homers. In 2025, he almost doubled it once more, swatting 20 extra. It was this newest efficiency that caught my eye. He didn’t basically enhance his bat velocity or his skill to hit the ball arduous. However final 12 months, greater than two-thirds of his batted balls have been within the air, and greater than 1 / 4 have been within the air to the pull aspect — each top-25 marks. Nonetheless simply 31, Benintendi now appears to be like like a contemporary hitter able to fashionable dwelling run totals, and he wouldn’t be the primary participant to place all of it collectively in his 30s. Maybe 2026 is the 12 months Benintendi makes us imagine once more. – Ryan Blake

The Rockies Will Win Fewer Video games in 2026 Than They Did in 2025

The factor I’m predicting mainly by no means occurs. The 2021 Diamondbacks and Orioles, homeowners of the worst data in baseball that 12 months, improved by 22 and 31 wins, respectively, the next season. The Nationals went 55-107 in 2022, then improved by 16 video games the subsequent 12 months. The 2024 A’s have been 19 wins higher than the 2023 squad. The White Sox went from 41 wins in 2024 to 60 in 2025. When a crew is the worst in baseball, it’s often the results of unhealthy luck combining with outlier points that gained’t repeat. The truth is, my daring prediction final 12 months was that the White Sox would add probably the most wins in baseball, and I got here actually shut: The pesky Blue Jays put up a 20-win enchancment, however the Sox have been second.

Will that occur for the Rockies, who final 12 months mustered simply 43 wins? Clearly, our mannequin thinks so, projecting them for 63 wins, a 20-win improve. Vegas is much less sanguine, with an over/underneath of 55.5. Profitable fewer than 50 video games can be an enormous upset. Profitable fewer than they did in 2025? Mainly extraordinary. It’s a sucker’s wager. However I feel they’re going to do it. Our projections assume they’ll have 5 positions price 1.5 or extra WAR this 12 months; that they had two final 12 months. They didn’t flip a lot of the crew over, and Willi Castro, the perfect hitter they signed, was barely above substitute degree himself in 2025. I’m fading the projections. By no means depend the Rockies out – at the least on this one very particular scenario. – Ben Clemens

JJ Wetherholt Will Win Nationwide League Rookie of the 12 months

Konnor Griffin is sort of prone to be a meaningfully higher participant than JJ Wetherholt. That is each the official place of the FanGraphs prospect crew and possibly the bulk opinion of individuals on Earth. The identical is true of Nolan McLean in relation to Wetherholt, even when the Mets right-hander is extraneous to my slender level in regards to the distinction between quick and long-term projections.

It’s a testomony to Griffin’s brilliance that he’s even in place to compete for NL Rookie of the 12 months in the identical season as Wetherholt, not to mention one of many favorites, although the previous will begin the 12 months in Triple-A and the latter will open the season with the Cardinals. After they have been drafted two spots aside in 2024, Griffin was a brilliant athletic Mississippi highschool star dogged by hit device questions surrounding his footwork within the field, whereas Wetherholt was an uber-polished faculty bat, which is meant to equate to a giant head begin.

Griffin has since revealed himself to be the form of planet-devouring prospect who addresses flaws in his sport at warp velocity and makes a mockery of cheap improvement timelines. However Wetherholt has remained precisely the form of precociously polished hitter who can hit the bottom operating on the highest degree, and rookie place gamers are usually barely much less hemmed in by workload restrictions than their pitching counterparts and sometimes aren’t as dogged by harm threat. Statistically, a mean miss price on heaters stopped us from slapping a future 70 grade on Wetherholt’s hit device, however he can range his swing to get on airplane with any fastball kind and tracks spin as nicely or higher than anybody within the minors, to again up his .304/.418/.487 profession line in professional ball.

Why all this give attention to hit device? As a result of it’s the one level of benefit for Wetherholt over Griffin, and this coming season might be the largest that benefit is ever going to be. – James Fegan

Extra Pitchers Will Lose When Throwing a Full Recreation Than Win

Fifteen years in the past, there have been 173 full video games league-wide, about one per day. There have been solely 29 final season, which was really one larger than 2024’s complete. With giant pitching staffs, strict pitch counts, and a pervasive dread of the third-time-through-the-order penalty, pitchers have to hit the Goldilocks Zone to complete what they began: The pitcher ought to be a veteran, the sport should be comparatively shut however not so tight that the supervisor reaches for his or her nearer, and the temperatures higher not be frigid. Barring vital roster or rule modifications, pitchers will doubtless see the ninth inning ever extra occasionally going ahead.

Perhaps it’s a decade too early to forecast the tip of the nine-inning full sport, as there have been solely a few full video games that fell in need of that threshold final 12 months. However by the mathematical property of eight being one lower than 9, inevitably we’ll attain the purpose the place eight-inning full video games develop into not simply theoretically extra possible but in addition extra frequent than their nine-inning counterparts. Let’s be daring — 2026 is the 12 months it occurs. Simply don’t harm your self celebrating. – Brendan Gawlowski

The Royals Will Have Their Finest Season Since 2015

The Royals spent the previous decade largely failing to stay as much as expectations following their 2014–15 success, ending at .500 simply as soon as from 2016–23 whereas dropping at the least 103 video games thrice. A robust rotation and the maturation of Bobby Witt Jr. carried them to 86 victories and a Wild Card Collection win in 2024, however they regressed to 82 wins final 12 months. Amid quite a few accidents, their pitching was fairly good — they ranked second within the American League in run prevention (3.93 per sport) — however their offense was the league’s third-worst (4.02 runs per sport). 13 of the 17 Royals with at the least 100 plate appearances completed with a wRC+ beneath 100, whereas solely Witt and third baseman Maikel Garcia completed above 1.5 WAR. High prospect Jac Caglianone hit a cringeworthy .157/.237/.295 (46 wRC+) in 62 video games, with -1.6 WAR.

Perhaps it’s the espresso fumes from the robust World Baseball Basic performances of Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino — to not point out match MVP Garcia for the profitable Group Venezuela — however I’m choosing the Royals to have their greatest season since 2015. The offense will enhance, and never simply because Kauffman Stadium’s fences have moved in; new left fielder Isaac Collins, a full season of catcher/DH Carter Jensen (my AL Rookie of the 12 months choose), and the continued improvement of Caglianone will assist elevate the ground. I’ve tabbed Witt for AL MVP, and am banking that rebounds by Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo will assist make the rotation a formidable one because the crew wins simply its second division title up to now 40 years. – Jay Jaffe

Connelly Early Will Be Boston’s Finest Starter Not Named Garrett Crochet

The Purple Sox made a number of notable additions to their beginning workers over the offseason, signing Ranger Suarez as a free agent and buying and selling for Sonny Grey and Johan Oviedo. Together with holdovers Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello, the trio of newcomers includes what tasks as a markedly improved rotation. Boston additionally has Kutter Crawford and Patrick Sandoval, each of whom are getting back from harm, ready within the wings. Furthermore, Payton Tolle, who ranks 18th in our High 100, will not be solely knocking on the door, he’s seeking to kick in in.

After which there may be Connelly Early, who at No. 38 is himself a denizen of our High 100. The soon-to-be-24-year-old left-hander has simply 23 large league innings underneath his belt, 19 1/3 within the common season and three 2/3 in final 12 months’s Wild Card Recreation 3. Whereas promising, Early not solely has much less of a monitor report than all however Tolle on Boston’s starter depth chart, Tolle is taken into account to have the upper ceiling.

In accordance my crystal ball, Early will do greater than merely set up himself this season; he’ll outperform all the opposite members of the Purple Sox rotation aside from Crochet. That includes an expansive repertoire that he augments with a mix of guile and steely-eyed calm, Early is a pitcher’s pitcher. It’s in all probability too quickly to anoint him the subsequent Bruce Hurst or John Tudor, however the erstwhile Purple Sox southpaws nonetheless function stable comps. On the doorstep of his first Opening Day, Early is poised to excel. – David Laurila

A Group Will Blow By way of Its Draft Pool

This isn’t a new thought. Certainly, it has existed for so long as the present bonus guidelines and penalties related to the beginner draft have been in place, and has precedent within the worldwide market, the place groups typically strategically exceeded their bonus swimming pools a decade or so in the past earlier than new guidelines have been applied. However I imagine a crew blowing via their draft pool is as possible this 12 months because it’s ever going to be, not simply because this 12 months’s draft has an attractive depth of highschool expertise, but in addition due to the way in which a crew exceeding their pool this 12 months would possibly work together with the seams of the brand new CBA in a manner that takes among the tooth out of the penalties.

As a reminder, listed below are penalties related to a crew exceeding its pool:

“A membership outspending its bonus pool by 0-5 p.c pays a 75 p.c tax on the overage. At larger thresholds, a crew loses future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 p.c tax for surpassing its pool by greater than 5 and as much as 10 p.c; a first- and a second-rounder and a one hundred pc tax for greater than 10 and as much as 15 p.c; and two first-rounders and a one hundred pc tax for greater than 15 p.c.”

Traditionally, these penalties have been sufficient to dissuade groups from overspending. A crew would wish to see a one-year payoff that exceeds the severity of the penalty to make it price exploring, and these guidelines make it tough to execute that. As an illustration, the Orioles’ bonus pool was almost $20 million final 12 months; 15% of that unique quantity is $3 million, the bonus of a first-round prospect. So they may have signed the equal of 1 additional first-round prospect, however it could have price them $6 million as a substitute of $3 million, and they’d have misplaced a first- and second-rounder this 12 months. 

But when a crew thinks the expertise within the following 12 months’s draft is poor, or if a excessive payroll goes to trigger their choose to slip and subsequently be much less painful to lose, then they could at the least think about the near-term splurge greater than they’d in a typical 12 months.

This brings us to the upcoming CBA negotiations. There are individuals in baseball who assume MLB will attempt to get rid of highschool participant draft eligibility within the subsequent Primary Settlement. The homeowners definitely have incentive to take action. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado received the preliminary free agent contracts they did partially as a result of they hit the market at such a younger age, which is just potential for gamers who’re drafted out of highschool after which race via the minors. Making everybody go to varsity (with out altering the present rule that gamers who matriculate to varsity should keep there for 3 years earlier than they’re draft-eligible once more) means North American gamers would enter professional ball at age 21 or 22 and hit free company at age 28 within the absolute quickest of instances. Meaning fewer free agent {dollars} for the elite Machado/Harper class of participant.

If that occurs and the faculty eligibility guidelines stay unchanged (once more, that half is essential), there’s going to be an enormous dip in draft expertise for a few years. If a crew thinks that’s going to occur, then why would they care in the event that they lose their first- and second-rounder the next 12 months? The groups which have the most important base spending swimming pools (this 12 months, that’s the Braves, Astros, Cardinals, Rays, Rockies, and Pirates) and might add a significant group whereas staying underneath the 15% threshold (and subsequently lose picks in simply the next 12 months’s draft) are the groups that ought to most think about doing this, although solely after working contacts within the Commissioner’s workplace to gauge the modifications that may be coming to the draft. – Eric Longenhagen

4 Groups From the AL East Will Make the Playoffs, however None Will Advance Previous the ALDS

Final 12 months, three groups from the AL East made it into the playoffs; I boldly predicted that only one would find yourself enjoying in October, and I used to be very flawed. This 12 months, I feel that the three groups that made the postseason in 2025 shall be joined by a fourth crew from the division. It’ll in all probability be the Orioles, however I wouldn’t be so fast to depend out the Rays. The Blue Jays, Yankees, and Purple Sox spent this offseason in full win-now mode, upgrading positions and patching up holes on their rosters. Baltimore did the identical, although the membership seems to be a step behind the highest three groups within the division because of a pitching workers that also doesn’t mission to be a power.

Actually, this prediction isn’t as a lot in regards to the power of the AL East as it’s the relative weak point of the opposite two divisions within the league. Within the AL West, the Astros and Rangers are projected to complete proper round .500 and are relying on a variety of issues going proper to even get to that time. The Athletics have constructed a formidable lineup, however they appear prone to be let down by their full lack of pitching. Within the AL Central, the Guardians have been fairly fortunate to win the division final 12 months and I don’t assume lightning will strike twice. The Royals are a crew on the rise, however I feel we’re underestimating how a lot of an impact the brand new dimensions of Kauffman Stadium can have on a pitching workers that permits a ton of balls in play (they have been Twenty third in strikeout price final 12 months).

The second a part of this prediction has every thing to do with the power of the Mariners and Tigers. Each of these groups are clear favorites of their respective divisions and have rosters constructed to make deep postseason runs. Even when 4 groups from the AL East make it into the playoffs, they’ll run right into a pair of buzzsaws within the Divisional spherical and get knocked out earlier than making a lot noise. – Jake Mailhot

Neither Shohei Ohtani Nor Aaron Decide Will Win MVP This 12 months

I needed to double down on my daring prediction from final 12 months, that Corbin Carroll will develop into the fifth 20/20/20/20 (that’s, 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 homers and 20 steals) participant in AL/NL historical past. He completed three triples shy of that feat, and although he could by no means get that shut once more, his chase made each certainly one of his gappers all of the extra thrilling. I wish to root for that once more, however choosing it felt like dishonest.

Anyway, about my precise daring prediction. It sounds loopy. Shohei Ohtani has gained three in a row and 4 within the final 5 seasons, together with his solely loss in that span coming to Aaron Decide in 2022; in the meantime, Decide has gained the final two AL MVPs and three out of the final 4, together with his solely loss in that span coming to Ohtani in an injury-shortened 2023. Perhaps it’s believable that certainly one of them will fall quick in 2026, however each of them? That’s a stretch.

And but, Decide turns 34 a month from now, and it’s fairly potential that the results of getting older may hold him from posting one more 10-WAR season. Say his manufacturing dips to his Depth Charts projection of .287/.418/.596, 44 dwelling runs, 174 wRC+, and seven.4 WAR, and even to the extra optimistic OOPSY projection of .304/.424/.651, 52 dwelling runs, 193 wRC+, 9.1 WAR. In both state of affairs, I may see Bobby Witt Jr., whose 8.0 WAR in 2025 represented a step backward, ending with at the least 9.0 WAR and main the Royals to the playoffs; if that occurs, I feel he’d win MVP over Decide.

As for Ohtani, final month Davy Andrews laid out the circumstances through which Juan Soto may beat out the Dodgers famous person for the NL MVP:

Say, in a future season, as a substitute of manufacturing a 172 wRC+, Ohtani runs the 142 he put up in 2022. It’s sufficient to maintain him in Soto’s league, however it’s nonetheless clearly a bit behind a typical Soto season. (Soto’s profession wRC+ is 158, and solely as soon as within the final six seasons has he completed with a mark beneath 150.) Now, say Ohtani’s pitching falls off some, too. He makes 25 begins, however his ERA and FIP are up round 4.00. It might add two or three wins to his WAR complete, pushing him safely previous Soto. As soon as once more, he would put up extra worth than anyone else, and as soon as once more he’d be doing it in a manner that no person else can compete with. However crucially, he’d now not be spectacular in both side of the sport. He’d be an important hitter who’s additionally not that far faraway from an innings eater. That will make him the plain chief in WAR, however we would begin to view him just a little in a different way. We’d begin to see a distinction between probably the most worthwhile participant within the league and the Most Beneficial Participant award winner.

I don’t assume Ohtani goes to fall off fairly that a lot in 2026, however I do assume that Davy’s evaluation right here is true. If Ohtani has the same season to his 2021 marketing campaign — for which he gained his first MVP, and mixed for roughly 8.0 WAR — then I feel another person would have a very good shot at profitable the award. I imagine that the 27-year-old Soto continues to be getting higher, to the purpose the place I anticipate him to at the least come near matching the 8.3 WAR he put up in 2024 with the Yankees. If that occurs, the award simply would possibly go to Soto. – Matt Martell

A Participant Will Hit the IL After Taking Medical Recommendation From a Chatbot

A chatbot-induced IL stint would possibly really feel farfetched when you think about that professional ball gamers have entry to a full workers of bodily and psychological well being professionals inside their organizations, and the assets to seek the advice of with their very own docs and trainers if they like. However think about that some gamers would reasonably tote round a bottle of Pepto-Bismol day by day and sip on it in direct eyeshot of the crew nutritionist than stroll throughout the meals room and ask an skilled within the discipline if there’s something to be finished about persistent tummy aches.

I get it. Asking for assist is difficult; it may be embarrassing, or be seen as an indication of weak point. Asking a chatbot removes the danger of sounding silly at work. And generally gamers have legitimate causes for not desirous to share medical data with their employers, so that they search outdoors assist. However similar to the remainder of us, they aren’t at all times nice at vetting their sources (see: Bryce Harper’s odyssey with uncooked milk and blood filtering, or the whole league’s transient infatuation with Phiten necklaces). If gamers are prepared to take dietary recommendation from unqualified podcasters and check out each junk science resolution that comes throughout their Instagram feed, then why not see if a chatbot is aware of what’s up with a bizarre pores and skin development. Or heck, perhaps it has ideas about swing mechanics? Justin Steele not too long ago admitted to having a 90-minute dialog with Grok (the chatbot from xAI), and I’m positive he’s not the one participant yukking it up with one of many robotic pals that now stay inside our pocket computer systems. – Kiri Oler

Maikel Garcia Will Out-WAR Bobby Witt Jr.

Do I really feel nice about probably the most easy path to this prediction coming true involving an harm to Bobby Witt Jr.? I don’t! Group USA’s gloomy, martial vibe might need been a drag on the WBC, however Witt’s play at quick was electrical. In a Decide-less world, he’s the percentages on AL MVP favourite. I want him no hurt! However I additionally don’t assume he has to tweak a hamstring or determine he desires to cobble footwear for this prediction to come back true. Maikel Garcia went from a light-hitting third baseman bolstered by robust protection to a five-win monster who socked 16 dwelling runs and posted a 120 wRC+ to associate with among the greatest defensive metrics within the sport (13 DRS, 14 FRV) in 2025. So what modified? Nicely, Garcia received a bit stronger and stopped hitting the ball on the bottom fairly a lot (although to be clear, he nonetheless hits it on the bottom loads), opting as a substitute for extra and more durable contact within the air. And whereas he nonetheless isn’t a bopper, the improved high quality of contact allowed his already robust strategy (his whiff and chase numbers have been good even when he had a garbo wRC+) to play up. Add some stout protection and a little bit of velocity on the basepaths, and you’ve got an All-Star.

Now, Garcia may return to hitting too many grounders tomorrow; the uptick in energy could possibly be a blip. He may determine he desires to cobble footwear. However we’re speaking about an important athlete who made a significant adjustment to higher leverage the abilities he already has, and who’d be enjoying shortstop on most groups. I feel he’ll maintain his positive factors from 2025 and construct on them, hitting for a line that resembles a peak Nolan Arenado season — say his .293/.358/.533 effort from 2022 — with the ability dialed down barely and the baserunning dialed manner up. (I would simply be describing Geraldo Perdomo’s 2025.) The league will modify to him, however he’ll modify again. He doesn’t want Witt to affix the circus to out-WAR him, although after all, it wouldn’t harm. – Meg Rowley

The Orioles Will Grow to be the Third Group in Historical past With 5 30-plus Dwelling Run Hitters

Solely twice in main league historical past has a crew been in a position to boast 5 hitters with at the least 30 dwelling runs every. The 2019 Minnesota Twins have been fueled by Nelson Cruz (41), Max Kepler (36), Miguel Sanó (34), Eddie Rosario (32), and Mitch Garver, who hit 31 in simply 359 plate appearances. In 2023, the Atlanta Braves have been powered by Matt Olson (54), Ronald Acuña Jr. (41), Marcell Ozuna (40), Austin Riley (37), and Ozzie Albies (33). Paradoxically, Rosario was additionally on that crew, although he hit simply 21 dwelling runs that 12 months. The 2026 Baltimore Orioles will develop into the third crew with 5 30-plus dwelling run hitters.

Pete Alonso has launched between 34 and 53 in each season since getting into the league in 2019, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 marketing campaign. Gunnar Henderson smashed 37 dingers in 2024 and will have finished so in 2025 if not for a shoulder harm that bothered him all season. Fueled by a career-high 13.7% barrel price, Taylor Ward knocked out 36 dwelling runs final 12 months. He’ll get pleasure from enjoying in Oriole Park, a ballpark with the second-highest dwelling run Park Consider 2025 (121).

The ultimate two shall be Tyler O’Neill and Colton Cowser, each of whom will rank within the prime 10% in hard-hit and barrel price. Samuel Basallo will fall quick, however definitely has 30-home run seasons on the horizon. – Vlad Sedler

Ryan McMahon Will Hit 30 Dwelling Runs for the Yankees

Not often do you mission a hitter to get higher after leaving Colorado, and but a full season in New York will deliver out the perfect in Ryan McMahon. His new dwelling park has been the fifth-best venue for lefty dwelling runs over the past three years, with a 118-park issue, 13 factors larger than Colorado’s 105. Maybe extra essential are the opposite AL East parks that he’ll go to. His new division affords an 101 common park issue for lefty homers, starting from Baltimore at 125 to Boston at 87. That 101 common is 10 factors larger than within the NL West. San Diego (90), San Francisco (78), and Arizona (77) are a lefty gauntlet with an 82 common, in comparison with Toronto (102), Tampa Bay (90 – I used 2022-24 for Tropicana Area), and Boston (87) sitting at 93. And whereas Los Angeles sits fourth total for lefty dwelling runs at 119, you must take care of Dodgers pitching to take benefit!

McMahon has the punch to reap the benefits of these parks. He’s been a 20-plus dwelling run hitter for the final 5 years, peaking at 24 again in 2019. Since 2021, he’s twenty first in hard-hit price (48%) and twenty sixth in barrel price (11%). He’s thirty fourth in Statcast’s Bat Velocity metric, which has solely been tracked since 2023, and has improved every year, going from the 53rd percentile to the 61st and eventually as much as the 77th final 12 months. He seems like a traditional Coors Hangover man. I don’t even want a gaudy HR/FB price for this to come back via, but when McMahon finds his manner again to the marks he posted from 2019-20 (26%), then I’m moonwalking to the end line with this one! – Paul Sporer

MLB and the MLBPA Will Agree on a New CBA Earlier than the Finish of the 2026 Season

Even after a really profitable World Baseball Basic, there’s a way of dread hanging over the league, because it’s arduous to neglect the true risk of a lockout following the 2026 season. However what if that doesn’t occur? Whereas MLBPA interim govt director Bruce Meyer is reportedly extra prepared than Tony Clark was to lose video games to get the very best CBA, paradoxically that willingness would possibly assist shut a deal reasonably than stop one.

My perception is that with an skilled litigator heading the MLBPA, the league’s homeowners shall be much less inclined to veer off into areas that aren’t central to the negotiations, equivalent to proposing making gamers free brokers after they’re 29 1/2 or changing the arbitration system with salaries based mostly on FanGraphs WAR.

I’m additionally not satisfied that the homeowners are as set on a wage cap as many others are. The actual fact is, the income sharing system features as a de facto smooth wage cap because it’s at the moment designed, and it already achieves a lot of the homeowners’ ends. The system to make a tough wage cap work would additionally doubtless expose wider gulfs between the groups within the largest markets and people within the smallest ones. Generally, calls for are merely negotiating positions.

As well as, the homeowners and gamers seem very within the 2028 Summer time Olympics, and a protracted negotiation that drags nicely into the 2027 season may imperil the participation of huge leaguers in these Video games. Lastly, the league’s nationwide broadcast offers solely run via 2028, and one has to assume that dropping video games in 2027 would make the subsequent spherical of negotiations for these offers more difficult (and doubtlessly much less profitable).

Now, the worst-case state of affairs may come to go, however at the least proper now, I feel there’s a very good likelihood it’s all only a pig in a poke. – Dan Szymborski

At Least One Group Will Make Their First Playoff Look Since 2020 (or Earlier)

Over the past 5 postseasons, 25 of the 30 main league groups have made at the least one look. Greater than half of huge league groups (16) have appeared in at the least two of the final 5 postseasons. After which you’ve gotten the Angels, Athletics, Nationals, Pirates, and Rockies. Sure, even the White Sox have made the postseason since 2020. The last decade has been unkind to that quintet, however this 12 months issues change! That’s proper, that is the 12 months the Rockies win the West! No, wait, too daring. However I do assume two of these 5 groups – the Pirates and Athletics – are constructing one thing fascinating. And I feel certainly one of them finds their manner in.

The A’s offense can dangle with anybody (Non-Dodgers Division), and I feel they’ve sufficient competent pitching combined with some upside arms to place collectively a powerful season. Plus, it’d solely take 86-87 wins to get in; enjoying in a division that hasn’t had a crew win greater than 90 video games since 2022 ought to assist. Pittsburgh, in the meantime, is the other. The pitching is loaded with expertise, and I feel the offense can do greater than sufficient. Begin with a cup of bounce backs from returning gamers; combine in a raised flooring with new additions; sprinkle in a touch of pleasure from a Rookie of the 12 months candidate. That feels like a recipe for October baseball. – Chad Younger

Shohei Ohtani Will Be a Cy Younger finalist

Because the 2025 season concluded, I began my 2026 fantasy draft prep by digging for any late-season breakouts. I began with some easy stats. Right here is the Ok-BB% leaderboard for the ultimate month:

Ohtani snuck in as one of many prime arms, so I expanded my search to incorporate all of the Nationwide League starters from the time Ohtani debuted on June 16:

Once more, a top-five exhibiting whereas getting back from Tommy John surgical procedure. Ohtani continued that efficiency within the postseason with a 25.3% Ok-BB% and a 2.64 xFIP.

And he might need one other gear. Traditionally, pitchers carry out higher the 12 months after they return from TJ, with their ERA dropping by 0.46 on common. Ohtani confirmed he was a prime starter on a per-inning foundation.

It will likely be powerful for him to win as a result of his innings shall be restricted, even when he’s wholesome. Some ace (Sánchez, Sale, Skenes, Yamamoto) will doubtless additionally keep wholesome for the whole season and edge out Ohtani on quantity. Even so, I see him being an MVP and Cy Younger finalist. How cool is that? – Jeff Zimmerman